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The ONE question that Mueller simply cannot answer.

FreedomFromAll said:
Of course they dont, thats what the have been told. Just like you were told that Right-wingers dont care Russia is attempting to undermine the United States. Sure you made that observation, but do you see what Im getting at here? How much of what we know and believe is a part of that attempt to undermine America? It is sounding like this was a big operation.
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More correctly, how much of what we know and believe was manufactured somewhere HERE in the US and then exploited by the Russian operation.

The divide and animosity existed long before the Russian operation, brought to us by the persuasion industry, paid for by partisan political operations and special interests here in the US.

The russians just exploited this situation, they didn't lay the groundwork.

But they did use the same techniques and methods.

We would do ourselves a favor by looking at this industry and how it affects us as a nation.
 
Mycroft said:
What was I thinking, eh? Of course, you are both right. You still have your dreams. Your dreams about Russians hacking servers. Your dreams about Russians supplying WikiLeaks with the fruits of their hacks. And the big one: Your dreams about Trump, himself, making deals with Russians because, hey...that's the ONLY way he could have possibly defeated Queen Hillary.

Keep your dreams alive.
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I have a better new dream.

Unwitting participants is exactly the same thing as useful idiots.

I'll take the trump team being useful idiots.

That would be winning!
 
Harshaw said:
It's part of the investigation Comey was conducting, and the scope of that investigation was incorporated into Mueller's appointment.

The thing is, every single agency which has commented has said there is zero evidence that anything the Russians did had any effect on the election. They said this up front when they announced that the Russians had tried.

What the Russians have succeeded in doing, to an alarming degree, is undermining faith in the electoral process, but that's largely because so many people simply want to believe that the election is illegitimate, so they're playing into it. Whether it's intentional or not, playing into it is what they're doing.
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What would that evidence consist of, exactly?

Seriously.

We know Jim Jones manipulated people into drinking poison because we have the bodies, empty cups, blood work.

How would one prove that someone manipulated someone into casting a vote?

You can't, probably.

Polling, focus groups are how the persuasion industry measures effectiveness.

And market share for marketers.

And the best they can do is estimate.

If you can't prove I killed somebody you must acquit.

That does NOT mean i didn't kill somebody.
 
What if...? said:
What would that evidence consist of, exactly?

Seriously.

We know Jim Jones manipulated people into drinking poison because we have the bodies, empty cups, blood work.

How would one prove that someone manipulated someone into casting a vote?

You can't, probably.

Polling, focus groups are how the persuasion industry measures effectiveness.

And market share for marketers.

And the best they can do is estimate.

If you can't prove I killed somebody you must acquit.

That does NOT mean i didn't kill somebody.
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Evidence of changed votes would be a good start.
 
Harshaw said:
It's part of the investigation Comey was conducting, and the scope of that investigation was incorporated into Mueller's appointment.

The thing is, every single agency which has commented has said there is zero evidence that anything the Russians did had any effect on the election. They said this up front when they announced that the Russians had tried.

What the Russians have succeeded in doing, to an alarming degree, is undermining faith in the electoral process, but that's largely because so many people simply want to believe that the election is illegitimate, so they're playing into it. Whether it's intentional or not, playing into it is what they're doing.
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True but one of the reasons it undermines the faith in the electoral process is that I think it would be impossible to prove if it had an effect or not. How does one determine what may or may not swing somebody sitting on the fence or what may dishearten somebody just enough to not show up to vote? It wouldn’t have to affect a sizable portion of the population, just some key swing areas.

I’m not saying I believe it affected the outcome but it could have and that is why it undermines confidence. So I think it is important for us to take proactive measures to stop foreigners from spending money to affect our elections. Personally I want money out of politics altogether but until that happens we can at least enforce the law that prohibits foreigners from spending money on them. So I applaud the indictments as a start.
 
Skeptic Bob said:
True but one of the reasons it undermines the faith in the electoral process is that I think it would be impossible to prove if it had an effect or not. How does one determine what may or may not swing somebody sitting on the fence or what may dishearten somebody just enough to not show up to vote? It wouldn’t have to affect a sizable portion of the population, just some key swing areas.

I’m not saying I believe it affected the outcome but it could have and that is why it undermines confidence. So I think it is important for us to take proactive measures to stop foreigners from spending money to affect our elections. Personally I want money out of politics altogether but until that happens we can at least enforce the law that prohibits foreigners from spending money on them. So I applaud the indictments as a start.
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I don't disagree with any of this, of course.

I just think it's irresponsible to glom onto the idea that it DID affect the outcome simply because one doesn't LIKE the outcome, which quite a number of people have most certainly done. It's certainly on full display from many 'round these DP parts.
 
Skeptic Bob said:
True but one of the reasons it undermines the faith in the electoral process is that I think it would be impossible to prove if it had an effect or not. How does one determine what may or may not swing somebody sitting on the fence or what may dishearten somebody just enough to not show up to vote? It wouldn’t have to affect a sizable portion of the population, just some key swing areas.

I’m not saying I believe it affected the outcome but it could have and that is why it undermines confidence. So I think it is important for us to take proactive measures to stop foreigners from spending money to affect our elections. Personally I want money out of politics altogether but until that happens we can at least enforce the law that prohibits foreigners from spending money on them. So I applaud the indictments as a start.
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Indeed, the idea of trying to prove that there was or was not an effect on the outcome is ludicrous. Even if they were able to identify every single piece of information and misinformation that every single voter heard - they can't, but if they could - they still wouldn't be able to judge whether or not that (mis)information was absorbed, the extent of aborption, what effect it had, etc.

The most they can do is make very rough guesstimations based on things like the number of times a given link was shared, the number of Facebook "likes" something received, etc., but that really doesn't say much about the impact the thing in question had on any particular voter.
 
What if...? said:
More correctly, how much of what we know and believe was manufactured somewhere HERE in the US and then exploited by the Russian operation.

The divide and animosity existed long before the Russian operation, brought to us by the persuasion industry, paid for by partisan political operations and special interests here in the US.

The russians just exploited this situation, they didn't lay the groundwork.

But they did use the same techniques and methods.

We would do ourselves a favor by looking at this industry and how it affects us as a nation.
Click to expand...

While I do not disagree with you, I cant help to wonder just how extensive Russians propaganda campaign is. We know that during the cold war with Russia that Russian persuasion was a real problem. Of course I agree that an industry influences us using the same methods. ANd further that the divide between the left and the right is an old problem that has been exploited more often than not by both of our political parties. Just the same though Putin could use old propaganda foundations from the cold war, since many of us were alive during that time. Some of the old efforts by Soviet propagandists mirrors the current Putin version. In fact its classic cold war strategy.
 
Mr Person said:
Indeed, the idea of trying to prove that there was or was not an effect on the outcome is ludicrous. Even if they were able to identify every single piece of information and misinformation that every single voter heard - they can't, but if they could - they still wouldn't be able to judge whether or not that (mis)information was absorbed, the extent of aborption, what effect it had, etc.

The most they can do is make very rough guesstimations based on things like the number of times a given link was shared, the number of Facebook "likes" something received, etc., but that really doesn't say much about the impact the thing in question had on any particular voter.
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Please have a look at "political science" generally and how it is used, specifically. It's how the polls know that the green stripe in the tie cost .12% vote to stay home.

In this case I know the University of Ottawa is doing a forensic, but heard of anyone else.
 
Harshaw said:
Evidence of changed votes would be a good start.
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Nobody ever claimed votes were changed.

The Russians were trying to change VOTERS.

How successfull they were may be unknowable.

But that was their intent.
 
Mr Person said:
Indeed, the idea of trying to prove that there was or was not an effect on the outcome is ludicrous. Even if they were able to identify every single piece of information and misinformation that every single voter heard - they can't, but if they could - they still wouldn't be able to judge whether or not that (mis)information was absorbed, the extent of aborption, what effect it had, etc.

The most they can do is make very rough guesstimations based on things like the number of times a given link was shared, the number of Facebook "likes" something received, etc., but that really doesn't say much about the impact the thing in question had on any particular voter.
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They could do the kind of Meta analysis they do when American conspiracy he's do the same thing.

But that would only give estimates.
 
Vetplus40 said:
What effect the Russian meddling campaign had on the election outcome. Sadly, this we will never know.
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Fact is, there isn't one tiniest bit of evidence that it changed the election results. But, I empathize with the fact that the left needs a reason to understand their loss. It's a grieving process. Too bad they are unable to look themselves in the mirror. The Russians must be blamed and Trump must be taken down for revenge. And, the truth is, we should actually be thanking the Russians for exposing who Clinton and the DNC really were. If they hadn't been rotten to the core there would have been no damaging information to release. No one on the left has ever denied the truth of what was released. The left is just incensed with the fact that the news got out when they wanted to keep the voter in the dark about how crooked they were.
 
FreedomFromAll said:
Rosenstein made it clear that "The indictment alleges that the Russian conspirators want to promote discord in the United States and undermine public confidence in democracy. We must not allow them to succeed." So he said that no charges in these indictments did that. So I do not think that the entire picture is being told at this point. It could very be that the meddling was enough to sway the election but he cant say that without causing exactly what Putin was aiming for. Either way Trump is President unless he is legally impeached and removed. There is no provision to void the 2016 election even if it could be proven that the election was a fraud. So trump or his supporters need not to keep fretting over that. The thing that every American should be concerned about is that Russia is trying to destroy our country from within. Republicans and Democrats need to put their differences aside and stand together for Americas sake. We need to bring back the attitude that we had after 9/11 United we stand....and just stop with the hyper-partisan playing into Russias hands bit.
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Well said. Since partisanship is so important these days, our elected officials way too busy being Republicans and Democrats with no time to be Americans, perhaps the Russians have already won. They're probably laughing and having a grand old time watching all the shenanigans going on about the election these days. Just as they hoped and planned.
 
FreedomFromAll said:
While I do not disagree with you, I cant help to wonder just how extensive Russians propaganda campaign is. We know that during the cold war with Russia that Russian persuasion was a real problem. Of course I agree that an industry influences us using the same methods. ANd further that the divide between the left and the right is an old problem that has been exploited more often than not by both of our political parties. Just the same though Putin could use old propaganda foundations from the cold war, since many of us were alive during that time. Some of the old efforts by Soviet propagandists mirrors the current Putin version. In fact its classic cold war strategy.
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Its become far more sophisticated.

Much money and effort has been expended figuring out what makes us tick. How we decide what is true.

Because there's money in it. LOTS of money.

We are constantly being inundated with attempts to manipulate.

In some countries practitioners are licensed and some techniques forbidden.

But they have free rein here. Because the primary vector is speech itself.
 
Mycroft said:
Rosenstein said it didn't affect the outcome of the election.
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And he said that as nobody other than the most dishonest hatemonger/partisan would say that it did. One thing is absolutely certain, anybody else who was a front runner in that election would have also received the same kinds of attacks from the Russian et al whether that was Sanders or any Republican including Trump. There was no way in hell Putin wanted Trump to be President more than anybody else.

The objective was to create chaos and confusion in the process and it succeeded beyond belief with the appointment of Mueller and the Russian dossier and the focus on whether Trump colluded with the Russians for the past year. I spend a bit of time on Facebook and Twitter almost every day, and I am absolutely certain that there was as much negative garbage out there about Trump as was out there about Hillary.

So at least we know, from Mueller's indictment, that the Russians were putting out ads mostly negative re Hillary. That lets the GOP at least somewhat off the hook yes? But who was putting out the garbage on Trump? Nobody to let the Democrats off the hook there.
 
Grand Mal said:
It's not over yet. We'll see.
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LOL. Yeah. Yeah. The investigation isn't over yet. It's right around the corner. Be patient. I'm curious if the left will ever drop that nonsense in 2024 or if they will still be saying the same thing, "Be patient. It's right around the corner". The left learned absolutely nothing from the Benghazi hearings where the right kept on saying the same thing.
 
Greenbeard said:
Seems fairly clear his improbable win (despite getting 3 million fewer votes than this opponent) wasn't quite so improbable as it seemed at the time. The pieces of the puzzle are clicking in place the more the details of the well-funded pro-Trump foreign influence campaign come into focus.
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LOL. Keep drinking the tainted kool aid.
 
Fearandloathing said:
Please have a look at "political science" generally and how it is used, specifically. It's how the polls know that the green stripe in the tie cost .12% vote to stay home.

In this case I know the University of Ottawa is doing a forensic, but heard of anyone else.
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I suppose it would be best for me to simply read this analysis once it is published. I have no training in the political sciences, so I know I'm speaking from a position from ignorance.


But even though I'm speaking from a position of ignorance, it seems to me that since the Russian campaign was a complex web of various activities it would be very difficult to accurately control for other factors in determining the specific amount of influence the overall campaign hand. They put out memes, fake news articles, deliberately biased opinion pieces based on actual news, etc. They had and have troll farms also making comments in various websites' comments sections and forums, and more. Given that it was an ongoing multi-pronged effort during an active campaign season, it seems like it'd be pretty hard to pin down the impact of various things they did.

(Unlike, say, the effect of a certain candidate's performance or presentation during a debate, or perhaps a particular response to one question, on poll numbers before/after that debate).
 
Deuce said:
Right-wingers don't care that Russia is attempting to undermine the United States.
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Actually it is the exact opposite. It has been known since before Trump even announced that Russia was trying to undermine the election process and confirmed again by both Rosenstein and Mueller that Russia has been trying to undermine our democracy and our election process for years and yet the left has fallen for it hook, line, and sinker and is foaming at the mouth, not believing in our election process and screaming bloody murder because their horrible candidate lost.
 
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