atheist4thecaus
Banned
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2018
- Messages
- 348
- Reaction score
- 57
- Location
- Wisconsin, USA
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Slightly Liberal
The truth about illegal immigrants is that they do, objectively, influence our elections. No, this is no conspiracy theory. This is fact. Here is the proof, created by me: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qJAOTV05pklABdwTH27XKjjPrgRTn5B-SfDDTCr2S-o/edit?usp=sharing
For this spreadsheet, I calculated the amount of Electoral Votes (EV's) each state would get if every state had no illegal immigrants, and then I recalculated Priority Values (PV's) based on the Adjusted Population. I then subtracted the Adjusted EV's from the Actual EV's to find the difference, which is the objective effect illegal immigrants have on our elections. In Columns E-G Row 54, you can see that Republicans lost 5 EV's due to illegal immigrants while Democrats won 5 extra EV's, based on states won by party. Column G Rows 2-51 show the difference by state. California has the largest difference by gaining 6 extra EV's from illegal immigrants. This is a massive number. 6 EV's is equal to or greater the amount of EV's that 22 other states (including D.C.) get in total. All other states gain or lose either 1 or 0. It's no surprise that illegal immigrants are flocking to California given the friendly laws towards illegal immigrants, Sanctuary State status, benefits, geography, culture, etc. This is certainly enough to sway a close election.
The reason illegal immigrants change the amount of EV's a state gets is because EV's based on population, which is based on a Census, which includes illegal immigrants. My data of illegals comes from the Pew Research Center (Hispanic arm) Appendix A: Additional Figures and Tables | Pew Research Center (Table A3), which is a well-respected and Left-leaning polling company. There were paths last year that would have given Trump or Clinton a 1 EV victory, but obviously President Trump won by more than that.
And there is another problem: The number of districts a state gets is tied to the population, just like EV's. In fact, EV's are calculated by each state getting 1 EV for each Senate seat (2 total) and then the number of House of Representatives (dependent on population). There are always 435 House of Representatives (1 Rep for each district), and the number of districts is determined by state population. What this means when illegal immigrants are considered in state population is that California gets 6 extra districts, but not only that, those districts are taken from other states that would've gotten the population bonus. For each of these districts, keep in mind that a House of Representative leads them. This means that are House of Representatives currently has more Democrats and fewer Republicans than it should. Worse yet, this means that citizens aren't being represented as much as they should be because illegal immigrants are being represented. This is quite disturbing to me, and absolutely unacceptable. My solution for this is to have a government body estimate how many illegals are in each state and subtract that population from the Census number to get an Adjusted Population before giving out Priority Values.
TL;DR: The House chamber in Congress is being over-represented with Democrats and under represents with Republicans because the Census considers illegal immigrants, which is what House of Representative numbers and most Electoral Votes by state are decided by. This also means that Democrats received more EV's and Republicans received less EV's than they should have. To solve this problem, I suggest subtracting the illegal immigrant population from the Census population before dishing out EV's by priority value.
For this spreadsheet, I calculated the amount of Electoral Votes (EV's) each state would get if every state had no illegal immigrants, and then I recalculated Priority Values (PV's) based on the Adjusted Population. I then subtracted the Adjusted EV's from the Actual EV's to find the difference, which is the objective effect illegal immigrants have on our elections. In Columns E-G Row 54, you can see that Republicans lost 5 EV's due to illegal immigrants while Democrats won 5 extra EV's, based on states won by party. Column G Rows 2-51 show the difference by state. California has the largest difference by gaining 6 extra EV's from illegal immigrants. This is a massive number. 6 EV's is equal to or greater the amount of EV's that 22 other states (including D.C.) get in total. All other states gain or lose either 1 or 0. It's no surprise that illegal immigrants are flocking to California given the friendly laws towards illegal immigrants, Sanctuary State status, benefits, geography, culture, etc. This is certainly enough to sway a close election.
The reason illegal immigrants change the amount of EV's a state gets is because EV's based on population, which is based on a Census, which includes illegal immigrants. My data of illegals comes from the Pew Research Center (Hispanic arm) Appendix A: Additional Figures and Tables | Pew Research Center (Table A3), which is a well-respected and Left-leaning polling company. There were paths last year that would have given Trump or Clinton a 1 EV victory, but obviously President Trump won by more than that.
And there is another problem: The number of districts a state gets is tied to the population, just like EV's. In fact, EV's are calculated by each state getting 1 EV for each Senate seat (2 total) and then the number of House of Representatives (dependent on population). There are always 435 House of Representatives (1 Rep for each district), and the number of districts is determined by state population. What this means when illegal immigrants are considered in state population is that California gets 6 extra districts, but not only that, those districts are taken from other states that would've gotten the population bonus. For each of these districts, keep in mind that a House of Representative leads them. This means that are House of Representatives currently has more Democrats and fewer Republicans than it should. Worse yet, this means that citizens aren't being represented as much as they should be because illegal immigrants are being represented. This is quite disturbing to me, and absolutely unacceptable. My solution for this is to have a government body estimate how many illegals are in each state and subtract that population from the Census number to get an Adjusted Population before giving out Priority Values.
TL;DR: The House chamber in Congress is being over-represented with Democrats and under represents with Republicans because the Census considers illegal immigrants, which is what House of Representative numbers and most Electoral Votes by state are decided by. This also means that Democrats received more EV's and Republicans received less EV's than they should have. To solve this problem, I suggest subtracting the illegal immigrant population from the Census population before dishing out EV's by priority value.