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Analysis of the Tax Bill

LowDown

LowDown

Curmudgeon
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It's not what we have been hearing from the mainstream media and most of the usual suspects.
 
LowDown said:
It's not what we have been hearing from the mainstream media and most of the usual suspects.
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As usual, you see what you're getting RIGHT NOW, but you're ignoring the bill that comes due down the road:

The average household would get a tax cut of $1,610 in 2018, a bump of about 2.2 percent in that average household's income, according to a report released Monday by the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank that has been critical of the tax overhaul plan.
However, extremes make averages, and the benefits would be much larger for richer households. A household earning $1 million or more would get an average cut of $69,660, an income bump of 3.3 percent. Compare that to the average household earning $50,000 to $75,000, which would get a tax cut of $870, or 1.6 percent.
...
Put another way, in 2018, households earning $1 million or more — or, 0.4 percent of all tax filers — would be getting 16.5 percent of the total benefit from the bill.

In 2027, households earning $1 million or more — 0.6 percent of all filers — would be getting 81.8 percent of the total benefit, even though their average tax break would shrink by about $26,000 over that 10-year period.
 
Glen Contrarian said:
As usual, you see what you're getting RIGHT NOW, but you're ignoring the bill that comes due down the road:

The average household would get a tax cut of $1,610 in 2018, a bump of about 2.2 percent in that average household's income, according to a report released Monday by the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank that has been critical of the tax overhaul plan.
However, extremes make averages, and the benefits would be much larger for richer households. A household earning $1 million or more would get an average cut of $69,660, an income bump of 3.3 percent. Compare that to the average household earning $50,000 to $75,000, which would get a tax cut of $870, or 1.6 percent.
...
Put another way, in 2018, households earning $1 million or more — or, 0.4 percent of all tax filers — would be getting 16.5 percent of the total benefit from the bill.

In 2027, households earning $1 million or more — 0.6 percent of all filers — would be getting 81.8 percent of the total benefit, even though their average tax break would shrink by about $26,000 over that 10-year period.
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How is a man supposed to float a narrative, especially upstream like is the case here, when you keep poking holes in it?
 
I'm not exactly thrilled with the allocations of this tax cut but my wife and me stand to net $4,000 in tax savings so I'm not going to pull my hair out that we'll only see that for a minmum of 10 years.

If you're in a high property tax state or in a situation where you'll get minimal savings or even pay more, you have a legitimate reason to bitch. Otherwise, the complaints ring hollow.
 
iliveonramen said:
They removed the sunset of middle class tax cuts? Otherwise using 2018 as a date is only a small part of the story.
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The tax cuts sunset, they can't hit deficit requirements otherwise.
 
dobieg said:
I'm not exactly thrilled with the allocations of this tax cut but my wife and me stand to net $4,000 in tax savings so I'm not going to pull my hair out that we'll only see that for a minmum of 10 years.

If you're in a high property tax state or in a situation where you'll get minimal savings or even pay more, you have a legitimate reason to bitch. Otherwise, the complaints ring hollow.
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Or a maximum of 8 years.

https://taxfoundation.org/final-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-details-analysis/

"The majority of individual income tax changes would be temporary, expiring on December 31, 2025."

"According to the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, the plan would significantly lower marginal tax rates and the cost of capital, which would lead to a 1.7 percent increase in GDP over the long term"

Which means the increase in annual GDP growth will be about $1 Trillion shy of the 5% growth necessary (every year) for there to be enough revenue generation to offset the reduction of revenue from the tax cuts.
 
Critter7r said:
Or a maximum of 8 years.

https://taxfoundation.org/final-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-details-analysis/

"The majority of individual income tax changes would be temporary, expiring on December 31, 2025."

"According to the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, the plan would significantly lower marginal tax rates and the cost of capital, which would lead to a 1.7 percent increase in GDP over the long term"

Which means the increase in annual GDP growth will be about $1 Trillion shy of the 5% growth necessary (every year) for there to be enough revenue generation to offset the reduction of revenue from the tax cuts.
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A Trillion dollars added to the Debt represents a 5% increase. Something I could care less about when that $4,000/year saving we'll get will pay for my yellow labs cancer medication.
 
dobieg said:
A Trillion dollars added to the Debt represents a 5% increase. Something I could care less about when that $4,000/year saving we'll get will pay for my yellow labs cancer medication.
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And when your wife gets sick in 2026, after your taxes are higher than they are now? Oh, and your insurance premiums are higher too.
 
Deuce said:
And when your wife gets sick in 2026, after your taxes are higher than they are now? Oh, and your insurance premiums are higher too.
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The only way taxes are higher in 2026 is if Democrats raise them. Good luck with that.

And if Obmacare is repealed we will no longer be subsidising those who don't contribute so I doubt you are correct.
 
There's nothing more Republican than this bill which is being passed straight down party lines. I guess little people need to start voting. If they don't give a **** then so what? The only surprise in this tax bill is at least the middle class gets something.

The argument is that if rich people are richer then it helps to creates jobs. Even the wealthy know this is a hustle. They're smart enough not to use the phrase "trickle down economics".

The economy will be doing well during next year's election. If people vote there pocket book, the great democratic triumph ain't gonna happen. We'll get not one but three more budgets exactly like this one. When Trump proclaims it's a big success, watch him do more of the same.

Sent from my Z833 using Tapatalk
 
dobieg said:
The only way taxes are higher in 2026 is if Democrats raise them. Good luck with that.

And if Obmacare is repealed we will no longer be subsidising those who don't contribute so I doubt you are correct.
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Republicans create a tax cut that expires, and it's Democrats fault if they aren't continued past the expiration. (Not only that, but it's Democrats fault for "raising taxes"!!)

Circular logic at its best.

Why not just create a tax cut that doesn't expire? (this is rhetorical, I know why they are causing the expiration of the cuts).
 
dobieg said:
The only way taxes are higher in 2026 is if Democrats raise them. Good luck with that.

And if Obmacare is repealed we will no longer be subsidising those who don't contribute so I doubt you are correct.
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If no other legislation is passed, your 2026 taxes will be higher than your 2016 taxes. The goodies are temporary but the bad parts are permanent.

for us, anyway.
 
Deuce said:
If no other legislation is passed, your 2026 taxes will be higher than your 2016 taxes. The goodies are temporary but the bad parts are permanent.

for us, anyway.
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You won't have to buy mandated insurance....save that money.
 
WCH said:
You won't have to buy mandated insurance....save that money.
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Oh thanks for the reminder! Millions more uninsured going bankrupt due to medical bills, another's outcome of this bill. And insurance premiums will be higher if this passes, too.

If you got in a major car accident and got a $100,000 hospital bill, how would that work out for you without insurance?
 
WCH said:
You won't have to buy mandated insurance....save that money.
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Save the money, don't buy healthcare insurance, and have the rest of us pay for your emergency room visits when you get sick and can't afford to care for yourself. Sounds like a plan!
 
Deuce said:
Oh thanks for the reminder! Millions more uninsured going bankrupt due to medical bills, another's outcome of this bill. And insurance premiums will be higher if this passes, too.

If you got in a major car accident and got a $100,000 hospital bill, how would that work out for you without insurance?
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25 supporters of this great "tax bill" can pool their $4000 savings for 2018 and pay for him.
 
iliveonramen said:
They removed the sunset of middle class tax cuts? Otherwise using 2018 as a date is only a small part of the story.
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The sunset provisions are conditional. We don't know if they will kick in or not at this point. Sunset provisions take effect in 2025, and a lot can happen befor that.
 
tres borrachos said:
Save the money, don't buy healthcare insurance, and have the rest of us pay for your emergency room visits when you get sick and can't afford to care for yourself. Sounds like a plan!
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Lots of people are not buying the insurance as it is.
 
LowDown said:
The sunset provisions are conditional. We don't know if they will kick in or not at this point. Sunset provisions take effect in 2025, and a lot can happen befor that.
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No they aren't. They had to remove the trigger clauses because that doesn't actually comply with reconciliation rules.
 
LowDown said:
Lots of people are not buying the insurance as it is.
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Yes, and those of us who have been responsibly buying insurance for our entire lives are paying for those people. Why is that a good thing?

If you don't have insurance and you can't pay your bills, do you think the medical professionals say "Okay, no worries. We'll just write it off." They don't. They pass on those costs. Just like banks do when people default on credit obligations. The provisions for losses never cover all losses, and the responsible people pay for it.

If you want to live amongst society, it's incumbent upon you to not foist your problems off on other people. People who are excited about "No more mandate, I can become society's problem" are no better than able bodied people who collect welfare instead of working.
 
tres borrachos said:
Save the money, don't buy healthcare insurance, and have the rest of us pay for your emergency room visits when you get sick and can't afford to care for yourself. Sounds like a plan!
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Apparently it was cheaper for the taxpayer to do just that.
 
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