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Democrats hold biggest lead in congressional preference since 2008

Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

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Democrats hold biggest lead in congressional preference since 2008

By Mark Murray
December 17, 2017

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WASHINGTON — Fresh off their victory in Alabama’s special Senate election, Democrats now enjoy their largest advantage in congressional preference in nine years, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, signaling a dangerous political environment for Republicans entering next year’s midterm elections. Fifty percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 39 percent who want Republicans in charge. The last time Democrats both held a double-digit lead and hit 50 percent on this question in the NBC/WSJ poll was September 2008, right before the party won the White House and picked up a substantial number of House and Senate seats. This past October, Democrats had a 7-point advantage on congressional preference, 48 percent to 41 percent.

congressional_preference_for_the_2018_midterms_prefer_democrats_prefer_republicans_chartbuilder_28129_1_f6b2a057f3a70c50c9b58dcebc460c2a.nbcnews-ux-600-480.png


The NBC/WSJ poll also shows Democrats with the intensity advantage, with 59 percent of Democratic voters saying they have a high level of interest in next year’s elections (registering either a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale), versus 49 percent of Republican voters saying the same thing. "A double-digit margin here is an important indicator of Democratic intensity," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollsters from Hart Research Associates. Those who “strongly disapprove” of Trump’s job (48 percent) outnumber those who say they “strongly approve” (24 percent) by a 2-to-1 margin.
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:rock
 
JANFU said:
Still a ways to go, and they need polices that made people leave and vote for Trump.
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This. If they continue to run as the "anti-Trump" party, the dems won't win a single seat. They need a message so voters know WTF they actually stand for, and what they are going to do to make life better for everyone in America.
 
DiAnna said:
This. If they continue to run as the "anti-Trump" party, the dems won't win a single seat. They need a message so voters know WTF they actually stand for, and what they are going to do to make life better for everyone in America.
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Agreed. Policies that work, and they should be not to far left. Taxes, HCare, jobs and Infrastructure.
Small towns are littered with people looking for work and there is no work.
Running the deficit higher will also not play well.
Reorg the entitlement programs, to many, some work well, some do not.
Raise the cap on Soc Security for income deductions.
 
DiAnna said:
This. If they continue to run as the "anti-Trump" party, the dems won't win a single seat. They need a message so voters know WTF they actually stand for, and what they are going to do to make life better for everyone in America.
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That remains to be seen. I'm a big supporter of Trump, but he has a problem where he's his own worse enemy and his own worse advocate. Trump is having trouble successfully communicating the success his administration is having and that can hurt the party big in the midterm
 
Awesome. And when they had the house, senate, and WH for 4 years, they couldnt so much as pass a budget.

That anyone cheers on either of those two parties is a pretty good indicator of why everything is so ****ed.
 
DiAnna said:
This. If they continue to run as the "anti-Trump" party, the dems won't win a single seat. They need a message so voters know WTF they actually stand for, and what they are going to do to make life better for everyone in America.
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As you know, I am not a Democrat but if Dems want my vote this ^^^ is what they need to do to get it.
 
DiAnna said:
This. If they continue to run as the "anti-Trump" party, the dems won't win a single seat. They need a message so voters know WTF they actually stand for, and what they are going to do to make life better for everyone in America.
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Tough sell for corporatists, which is why all we do is toggle back and forth for the same end results.
 
DiAnna said:
This. If they continue to run as the "anti-Trump" party, the dems won't win a single seat. They need a message so voters know WTF they actually stand for, and what they are going to do to make life better for everyone in America.
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One of the smartest political moves I have ever witnessed was the 1994 Republican Contract With America. It provided just what you referenced.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_with_America

The Dems need their own version and need it within the next 90 days before the primaries kick in.
 
DiAnna said:
This. If they continue to run as the "anti-Trump" party, the dems won't win a single seat. They need a message so voters know WTF they actually stand for, and what they are going to do to make life better for everyone in America.
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Therein lies the problem: after voters figured out what the Democrats really stand for, the Democrats started losing their asses.
 
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As Bob Dylan sang, the times ... they are a changing.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Democrats hold biggest lead in congressional preference since 2008



:rock
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A lot of this depends on the poll one looks at. Example, YouGov poll shows nationwide generic congressional poll 44-36 in favor of the Democrats, but independents favor the Republicans 31-28 with 5% opting for other with the rest unknown, not sure and 8% will not vote. Question 101

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gptk5yjub1/econTabReport.pdf

Now 538 does an average of all polls which shows the Democrats with a huge 48.7% to 37.6%. I pay quite a lot of attention to Nate Silver and his 538 site.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Keep in mind, this is generic. It is un-named GOP vs. un-named Democrat. Things tend to change once names are attached. Then there is the age old syndrome of "I love my congressman, it is the other 434 that are the problem." I have no doubt if the election were held today, the Democrats would probably take back the House and perhaps the senate also. Here's my December forecast.

https://www.debatepolitics.com/blog...enate-and-house-forecast-december-2017-a.html

Things can change and usually do. One unforeseen major event or happening can flip an election on its ear. A rapid approving economy can also change voting patterns drastically. Especially among independents which make up 40% plus of the total electorate.
 
Perotista said:
Things can change and usually do. One unforeseen major event or happening can flip an election on its ear. A rapid approving economy can also change voting patterns drastically. Especially among independents which make up 40% plus of the total electorate.
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I agree. Most voters are either clueless and/or fickle.
 
Rogue Valley said:
I agree. Most voters are either clueless and/or fickle.
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I would disagree with clueless, but certainly independents are very fickle. Fickle is the word. Whereas those who identify with the two major parties as history has shown, will vote for their parties candidate/s 90% of the time, give or take a percentage point or two. Independents on the other hand, has had huge swings. In 2006 independents voted for Democrats in congress by a 57-39 margin over republicans which caused the democrats to pick up 33 seats. But in 2010, independents went Republican by a 57-41 margin enabling the GOP to gain a huge 63 seats in the house. In fact, over the last ten years Republicans have received a low 39% of the independent vote to a high of 57%. Democrats on the other hand have received a low of 40% and a high of 57% from independents.

What causes these wide swings? It varies from election to election. In 2006 most independents were just tired of Republican rule, tired of the Iraq War, the recession was beginning, they wanted a change. In 2010, independents were angry the democrats didn't listen to them. They were ignored and took out their frustrations on the democrats in congress. I have a feeling in 2018 independents will be taking out their frustrations on the republicans in congress.

I would say most independents don't care about one or the other party's agenda. They do care about their pocket book. They want a Washington that listens to them and that works. Independents say Washington is broken today. even so, they dislike both major parties, only 19% of independents view the Democrats in congress favorably, 57% unfavorably. For republicans in congress, 17% favorably, 60% unfavorable with the rest not sure or undecided. There is no love there for either congressional party. But the choice comes down to one or the other much like the presidential race last year did. Questions 85A and 85B.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gptk5yjub1/econTabReport.pdf

Fickle, yes. Next year's election won't be about which party these independents want to control congress. It will be all about which party they don't want to control congress. Another anti election like last year. Although they hate both parties, the least hated wins. Such is life under our two party system, monopoly.
 
EMNofSeattle said:
That remains to be seen. I'm a big supporter of Trump, but he has a problem where he's his own worse enemy and his own worse advocate. Trump is having trouble successfully communicating the success his administration is having and that can hurt the party big in the midterm
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probably because there has been absolutely no success to communicate.
 
DiAnna said:
This. If they continue to run as the "anti-Trump" party, the dems won't win a single seat. They need a message so voters know WTF they actually stand for, and what they are going to do to make life better for everyone in America.
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Meh, Republicans had no message from 2009-2016 other than being Anti Obama, and look at the power they currently hold today.
 
Well, I still favor the Republicans and at this point, plan to vote for them instead of the Democrats. But I won't campaign for anyone or allow any signs on my lawn, as we usually have. I don't want people to confuse me with a Trump supporter.
 
JANFU said:
Agreed. Policies that work, and they should be not to far left. Taxes, HCare, jobs and Infrastructure.
Small towns are littered with people looking for work and there is no work.
Running the deficit higher will also not play well.
Reorg the entitlement programs, to many, some work well, some do not.
Raise the cap on Soc Security for income deductions.
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One simple thing would be to strengthen and expand Medicare. These rural areas tend to use regional hospitals and local doctors that will go down in a bunch of financial hurt as medicare and ASA cut-backs are implemented and less people see their doctors and whatnot. That's a slew of rural jobs right there.
 
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