Doug Jones Wins. Is this the beginning of the end for Trump?

MrPeanut · Dec 16, 2017

Fishking said:
You have it backwards. It is you trying to blunt the win but you're not seeing what that win actually is. The win for the people is that there seems to be a cultural shift happening where women are finally being believed and their treatment, that was seen in many cases as normal and good fun, is finally being rejected.

That is the win, and it's important not to have the advancements being made there not be undermined for partisan politics and have us slide back to where we were.

This isn't about partisan politics. I'm not saying that this win was because Alabamians suddenly wanted to be Democrats. I am saying that it was an impressive win even with factoring in the accusations against Moore. It is an incredibly deep red state and the Republican was endorsed by a president that had the biggest margin of victory over their opponent in 45 years. The only way Jones won was because non-evangelical voters decided to come out in huge numbers. Yes, we can agree that it is fantastic that women are finally being believed when it comes to sexual harassment/assault. It is also impressive that a Democrat pulled out a win in such staunchly Republican state. Both things are true.

Fishking · Dec 16, 2017

MrPeanut said:
This isn't about partisan politics. I'm not saying that this win was because Alabamians suddenly wanted to be Democrats. I am saying that it was an impressive win even with factoring in the accusations against Moore. It is an incredibly deep red state and the Republican was endorsed by a president that had the biggest margin of victory over their opponent in 45 years. The only way Jones won was because non-evangelical voters decided to come out in huge numbers. Yes, we can agree that it is fantastic that women are finally being believed when it comes to sexual harassment/assault. It is also impressive that a Democrat pulled out a win in such staunchly Republican state. Both things are true.

Sorry, I just don't see it. If Moore doesn't have this child molestation scandal we'd have seen him win by 10+ points.

MrPeanut · Dec 16, 2017

Fishking said:
Sorry, I just don't see it. If Moore doesn't have this child molestation scandal we'd have seen him win by 10+ points.

I think Moore was the worst candidate they could've put forward, and because Jones is pretty vanilla it was a good match up for him. Moore would've won inside of 10 points if he was not accused of child molestation. He had plenty of 50 year old talking points for middle class Republicans to hate. We saw a very small decrease in evangelical support for Moore, probably due to the accusations, but that voting block is generally the decider for major elections in AL.

I think it's impressive that a Democrat can win a major election in that state even if he was racing against a corpse, but I'll agree that it is more important to realize the fact that women are being taken more seriously in these situations is a big win for our country. If you predicted the Jones win good on ya. I thought evangelicals would drag Moore across the finish line. The rest of AL obviously had no intention of letting that happen.

Fishking · Dec 16, 2017

MrPeanut said:
I think Moore was the worst candidate they could've put forward, and because Jones is pretty vanilla it was a good match up for him. Moore would've won inside of 10 points if he was not accused of child molestation. He had plenty of 50 year old talking points for middle class Republicans to hate. We saw a very small decrease in evangelical support for Moore, probably due to the accusations, but that voting block is generally the decider for major elections in AL.

I think it's impressive that a Democrat can win a major election in that state even if he was racing against a corpse, but I'll agree that it is more important to realize the fact that women are being taken more seriously in these situations is a big win for our country. If you predicted the Jones win good on ya. I thought evangelicals would drag Moore across the finish line. The rest of AL obviously had no intention of letting that happen.

I didn't predict the win but I did say he wasn't worth supporting. They'd be throwing their moral integrity in the toilet for one Senator that probably wouldn't change the passage of any legislation of note. So a lot would be lost for little to no gain.

Puigb · Dec 17, 2017

Fishking said:
You can keep saying that all you want but you'll still be wrong. Moore lost because of the credible accusations of child molestation. That's it. This is an undeniable fact for those who live in reality.

I'lll keep saying it because it's what actually happened...

Fishking · Dec 18, 2017

Puigb said:
I'lll keep saying it because it's what actually happened...

And you'll continue to be wrong. Moore lost because of the accusations, not because of anything to do with Trump. Full stop. Don't pass go. Do not collect $200.

PleasantValley · Dec 18, 2017

SonOfDaedalus said:
(not official yet as of 10:25 PM EST but I'm calling it. I'll be embarrassed if I'm wrong)

What does this mean for Trump who pushed for Moore? Is this the beginning of the end?

I think it shows Trump is very confused in that he did NOT push for Moore, but the other Republican at first.
Not till later did he push for Moore when his golden boy lost to Moore.
This means 2X Trump backed the wrong horse and only got horse dookie on his shoes for his efforts.

I do not see this as a death knell for Trump.
This was a purely Alabama show and Trump had no idea what he was doing when he strayed into the fray.
There are still 49 other states in the union.

Puigb · Dec 19, 2017

Fishking said:
And you'll continue to be wrong. Moore lost because of the accusations, not because of anything to do with Trump. Full stop. Don't pass go. Do not collect $200.

i understand your wishful thinking. He lost because of a combination of both things. No doubt that the accusations made things worse for Moore, but there's also no doubt that the strong black support for Jones not seen since Obama in Alabama was a result of understandable anti Trump backlash. Most idiot Republicans in Alabama voted for Moore regardless. How independents and moderates would have swung without the accusations against Moore is anyone's guess, but considering Trump's abysmal approval ratings with them currently, it's possible they would have voted against the Trump candidate regardless.

Fishking · Dec 19, 2017

Puigb said:
i understand your wishful thinking. He lost because of a combination of both things. No doubt that the accusations made things worse for Moore, but there's also no doubt that the strong black support for Jones not seen since Obama in Alabama was a result of understandable anti Trump backlash. Most idiot Republicans in Alabama voted for Moore regardless. How independents and moderates would have swung without the accusations against Moore is anyone's guess, but considering Trump's abysmal approval ratings with them currently, it's possible they would have voted against the Trump candidate regardless.

The strong support for Doug Jones is particular to him, not a Trump backlash. Jones prosecuted a 40 year old cold case on a black church bombing by KKK members that didn't get justice properly handed out due to corruption in law enforcement. So first you have the black voting block that always comes out at around 90%+ for Democrats. Then add in Jones' honorable service in seeing justice done in an egregious miscarriage of justice.

I know you want to make it about all things Trump but that cliche old trope is just getting beat to death.

Puigb · Dec 19, 2017

Fishking said:
The strong support for Doug Jones is particular to him, not a Trump backlash. Jones prosecuted a 40 year old cold case on a black church bombing by KKK members that didn't get justice properly handed out due to corruption in law enforcement. So first you have the black voting block that always comes out at around 90%+ for Democrats. Then add in Jones' honorable service in seeing justice done in an egregious miscarriage of justice.

I know you want to make it about all things Trump but that cliche old trope is just getting beat to death.

Or rather, what's starting to slowly but surly happen is a Democratic take over of politics. But keep your head in the sand then...everything is fine

Fishking · Dec 19, 2017

Puigb said:
Or rather, what's starting to slowly but surly happen is a Democratic take over of politics. But keep your head in the sand then...everything is fine

*shrug* Counting at the state level, Democrats lost a thousand seats during the Obama years. They have a long way before there can be any claim of takeover. Further, there are a ton of Democrats up during 2018, with few Republicans.

Puigb · Dec 20, 2017

Fishking said:
*shrug* Counting at the state level, Democrats lost a thousand seats during the Obama years. They have a long way before there can be any claim of takeover. Further, there are a ton of Democrats up during 2018, with few Republicans.

Yeah, that's what happens when lazy Democrats don't get up and vote. But with Trump and his destructive policies coming down on them...they may come out and vote. And if they do vote, the Republicans lose. The Republican's can't win on numbers. They only win when the Democrats don't vote.

Somerville · Dec 20, 2017

Puigb said:
Yeah, that's what happens when lazy Democrats don't get up and vote. But with Trump and his destructive policies coming down on them...they may come out and vote. And if they do vote, the Republicans lose. The Republican's can't win on numbers. They only win when the Democrats don't vote.

Republicans also win when their state legislatures gerrymander voting districts. The outcome of the two gerrymandering cases presently before the SCOTUS might well determine which party wins the 2018 elections.

Harris v. Cooper and Gill v. Whitford