Incredible shrinking base

Rogue Valley · Nov 8, 2017

Incredible shrinking base

By Lanny J. Davis
11.8.17

The latest polls show that Trump and his core political advisors who celebrate how well he is doing with his “base” are wrong. His base is shrinking – every week, every month. The big Democratic win Tuesday night by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam, rejecting the Ed Gillespie campaign, which tried to out-Trump Trump in its hateful, fear-mongering, misleading ads, means Trumpism without Trump has been repudiated. Donald Trump can lie to himself and everyone else that this wasn’t a personal repudiation of his presidency. But alternative facts won’t work here. Turn out among Trump base voters was down. The results are consistent with recent national job approval ratings in the Gallup and the Washington Post/ABC polls published several days ago. Trump had 33 percent job approval in Gallup and 37 percent approval in the Post/ABC poll -- the lowest approval ratings for any president after one year since modern polling was invented some seven decades ago. But worse news for trump is his unmistakable, substantial shrinkage of support among base, core voters – i.e., Republicans, conservatives, rural, and white working-class voters lacking a college degree. Among these Trump base voters, the results show a steady decline in support.

Moreover, of all the cultural segments of the country that proved to be the most supportive of Trump are those voters living in rural areas. Yet the Post/ABC poll shows that a majority of these rural Trump base voters disapprove of his job performance. Also contrary to the Trump White House mythology that Trump base voters love his apparent reckless Tweets and statements that sometimes make him appear to be mentally unstable, when the core Trump voters are asked whether Trump has the kind of personality and temperament to serve effectively as president, about one-half of white non-college educated men, the key voting group that delivered the presidency to Donald Trump, say no. In sum: no incumbent president in his right mind could consider this first-year report card, even among his core supporters, as anything other than a failing grade. And no president in his right mind who wanted to be reelected would fail to get off Twitter and start being a president, unifying rather than dividing the nation. That is to say, no president in his right mind. Which is why I am certain Trump won’t change and will convince himself that these results in Virginia and these polls are all “FAKE NEWS” by “BIASED POLLSTERS.”

Trumps base is contracting. Yesterday, the nation delivered its initial verdict on the Trump administration. In one year, Trump has managed to alienate most US demographic groups and the international community.

It's become abundantly clear that Trump is a self-serving, unethical, and conniving elitist. Much harsher electoral verdicts will certainly follow in the months and years ahead.

Related: Trump voters disappointed by his presidency threaten the GOP

SenorXm/Sirius · Nov 8, 2017

We can all go back and forth about what happened yesterday. Was it because of Trump? Polls say this. Polls say that. Maybe it was just an off-year election fluke, maybe not.. Whatever.

IMO the KEY will be how the Republicans in Congress react to this. Up until now they've done NOTHING to try and control Trump because they didn't want to piss off his alt-right base.

Now we'll see. If more then a few GOP senators go after him, especially Senators who are up for re-election in 2018. then we'll know for sure yesterdays election wasn't a fluke. We'll know the GOP is scared.

Rexedgar · Nov 8, 2017

I have learned to err on the side of caution. I fell into the ‘last straw’ argument almost from the inauguration and have been amazed/surprised at what ‘flies’ in regard to this presidency. Keep your powder dry........

Hawkeye10 · Nov 8, 2017

SenorXm/Sirius said:
We can all go back and forth about what happened yesterday. Was it because of Trump? Polls say this. Polls say that. Maybe it was just an off-year election fluke, maybe not.. Whatever.

IMO the KEY will be how the Republicans in Congress react to this. Up until now they've done NOTHING to try and control Trump because they didn't want to piss off his alt-right base.

Now we'll see. If more then a few GOP senators go after him, especially Senators who are up for re-election in 2018. then we'll know for sure yesterdays election wasn't a fluke. We'll know the GOP is scared.

Given how wrong the pollsters were about Virginia going into the vote plus all of their other recent ****-ups anything they have to say about what the vote meant must be deeply discounted....they have no credibility.

AlbqOwl · Nov 8, 2017

Rogue Valley said:
Incredible shrinking base

Trumps base is contracting. Yesterday, the nation delivered its initial verdict on the Trump administration. In one year, Trump has managed to alienate most US demographic groups and the international community.

It's become abundantly clear that Trump is a self-serving, unethical, and conniving elitist. Much harsher electoral verdicts will certainly follow in the months and years ahead.

Related: Trump voters disappointed by his presidency threaten the GOP

Yes, that was the assigned talking point back in early August. Lanny is a little slow on the uptake just now getting to it, but he's probably working for one of the Democratic contenders so he is starting the propaganda war early.

You google Trump's shrinking base and you get dozens of links from mostly dedicated left wing media sources, and all using exactly the same language which of course was that from that same assigned talking point parroted over and over and over again at the end of the first week in August. The polls have been holding steady within a very few points for at least six months and I'm pretty sure they are done by people looking for a specific answer that can be spun one way or the other.

But almost all of Trumps issues have more favorable ratings than unfavorable ones. It is just him personally a lot of people say they don't like, but since more people are issue voters than personality voters, Trump seems to be in pretty good shape.

I am amused that the media is absolutely salivating over the Democratic win in Virginia and New Jersey yesterday after shrugging off the previous four losses as inconsequential and to be expected. Mercy, a Democrat winning in the bright blue state of New Jersey is a death knell for Trump? Really? In a state Hillary won by 14 points? In Virginia that also voted Hillary but in which the GOP candidate was rapidly gaining ground and probably would have won if the election had been a week later?

But those four Democratic losses mean nothing while yesterday's Democratic wins mean everything according to the media.

We'll see.

haymarket · Nov 8, 2017

SenorXm/Sirius said:
We can all go back and forth about what happened yesterday. Was it because of Trump? Polls say this. Polls say that. Maybe it was just an off-year election fluke, maybe not.. Whatever.

IMO the KEY will be how the Republicans in Congress react to this. Up until now they've done NOTHING to try and control Trump because they didn't want to piss off his alt-right base.

Now we'll see. If more then a few GOP senators go after him, especially Senators who are up for re-election in 2018. then we'll know for sure yesterdays election wasn't a fluke. We'll know the GOP is scared.

Th vast vast vast majority of GOP office holders will continue to show they have no spine and simply either continue to suck up to Trump or they will say nothing while voting for what he wants hoping to keep a low profile as to not anger the Trumpkins back home and keep their votes for themselves.

haymarket · Nov 8, 2017

Hawkeye10 said:
Given how wrong the pollsters were about Virginia going into the vote plus all of their other recent ****-ups anything they have to say about what the vote meant must be deeply discounted....they have no credibility.

Wrong?!?!?!?!? Every poll I saw called the winner correctly.

Hawkeye10 · Nov 8, 2017

haymarket said:
Wrong?!?!?!?!? Every poll I saw called the winner correctly.

Yes:

After a Tough 2016, Many Pollsters Haven’t Changed Anything

The relative lack of change among public pollsters doesn’t mean that the pre-election polls in Virginia or elsewhere are doomed to miss by as much as they did in 2016. By most accounts, the 2016 polling error took a perfect storm: Just about everything that could break Mr. Trump’s way appears to have done so. Next time, it could be the Democrats who beat turnout expectations and sway undecided voters. There’s also no guarantee that the stark educational divide of the 2016 presidential election will be as prominent without Mr. Trump on the ballot, or as important with midterm voters, who tend to be more educated.

But the lack of change hints at a bleak possibility: a mismatch between the scale of the challenge facing the survey research industry and the capacity of many individual public pollsters to respond.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/...6-many-pollsters-havent-changed-anything.html

Pollsters missed Virginia by more than they missed Trump vs. Hillary

The polls were wildly off in the Virginia election.

Democrat Ralph Northam had a lead over Republican Ed Gillespie throughout the race — but a lead that notably tightened to 1 or 2 points by Election Day. Pundits and pollsters were all in agreement: Virginia’s polls were leaning toward Northam, but the race was a toss-up.

But on Tuesday night, Democrats scored a landslide victory, taking the governor’s race by 8 points and winning far more delegate seats than expected.
.
.
.
That the polls were wrong likely won’t get as much attention this year, because they happened to be wrong in the correct direction — showing Northam with a slight lead.

Nevertheless, exactly one year after the 2016 presidential election, a race that made social scientists and pollsters reconsider their fundamental models for evaluating the political climate, the polls are still epically off. In fact, they were more off in Virginia this year than in the 2016 presidential election.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/8/16623230/polls-were-wrong-virginia

haymarket · Nov 8, 2017

Hawkeye10 said:
Yes:

After a Tough 2016, Many Pollsters Haven’t Changed Anything

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/...6-many-pollsters-havent-changed-anything.html

Pollsters missed Virginia by more than they missed Trump vs. Hillary

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/8/16623230/polls-were-wrong-virginia

They called the winner. Get over nit picking about a couple of points in a few polls.

Real Clear Politics poll section shows several were other accurate well within the margin of error

Quinnpiac Northem +9
Newport Univ Northem +6
Cos News Northem +5

Hawkeye10 · Nov 8, 2017

haymarket said:
They called the winner. Get over nit picking about a couple of points in a few polls.

Real Clear Politics poll section shows several were other accurate well within the margin of error

Quinnpiac Northem +9
Newport Univ Northem +6
Cos News Northem +5

You are whistling past the graveyard.

Pity, as I see you right more often than many.

Jetboogieman · Nov 8, 2017

Rogue Valley said:
Incredible shrinking base

Trumps base is contracting. Yesterday, the nation delivered its initial verdict on the Trump administration. In one year, Trump has managed to alienate most US demographic groups and the international community.

It's become abundantly clear that Trump is a self-serving, unethical, and conniving elitist. Much harsher electoral verdicts will certainly follow in the months and years ahead.

Related: Trump voters disappointed by his presidency threaten the GOP

Generally speaking, the brand of Conservatism, especially extremist religious conservatism that inhabits the American Political System to an absurd degree SHOULD be in trouble, because its adherents are literally dying off and more and more people are becoming religiously unaffiliated or of a different faith.

But it's the distribution of these people that's the problem.

There is no reason at all, at this time to believe that the demographic shift that America is experiencing will translate into Democratic Victories.

Because even with a shrinking population, evangelical Christians distribution and reliability as a voter still makes them the most formidable demographic in the entire body politic and they're not about to abandon the President regardless of what he does, they've proven they will forsake their morals to get to legislate their morals come hell or high water.

These articles do nothing except generate a sense of complacency among liberals that one day, they might just win by default, that is extremely bad thinking, the tenacity of Republican Voters should never be discounted because they vote, religiously, liberal voters don't and their distribution sucks.

America is a more progressive country than any Republican voter will admit, but it's held back by an archaic electoral system and a mainstream party that's going out of it's way at the very edge of legality to stop poor and minority people from voting.

SonOfDaedalus · Nov 8, 2017

SenorXm/Sirius said:
We can all go back and forth about what happened yesterday. Was it because of Trump? Polls say this. Polls say that.

True, but you can't deny that in a purple state Ed Gillespie had to distance himself from Trump. Trump is historically unpopular. New polls say over 60% of people think he's doing a bad job. The only people who want to campaign with the president are people in deep red states.

I think Trump fans need to understand that he's only popular among his base. He's destroying the future of the Republican party. Trump won because Hillary was so unpopular and unlikeable. Trump would have lost against almost anyone else.

He's a one term president.

haymarket · Nov 8, 2017

Hawkeye10 said:
You are whistling past the graveyard.

Pity, as I see you right more often than many.

Which of those poll numbers that I reported to you did I get incorrect?

SonOfDaedalus · Nov 8, 2017

Jetboogieman said:
people are becoming religiously unaffiliated or of a different faith.

As a Christian, I want to point out that these people are not motivated by Christianity. Christians against healthcare for the poor? lol

JANFU · Nov 8, 2017

Jetboogieman said:
Generally speaking, the brand of Conservatism, especially extremist religious conservatism that inhabits the American Political System to an absurd degree SHOULD be in trouble, because its adherents are literally dying off and more and more people are becoming religiously unaffiliated or of a different faith.

But it's the distribution of these people that's the problem.

There is no reason at all, at this time to believe that the demographic shift that America is experiencing will translate into Democratic Victories.

Because even with a shrinking population, evangelical Christians distribution and reliability as a voter still makes them the most formidable demographic in the entire body politic and they're not about to abandon the President regardless of what he does, they've proven they will forsake their morals to get to legislate their morals come hell or high water.

These articles do nothing except generate a sense of complacency among liberals that one day, they might just win by default, that is extremely bad thinking, the tenacity of Republican Voters should never be discounted because they vote, religiously, liberal voters don't and their distribution sucks.

America is a more progressive country than any Republican voter will admit, but it's held back by an archaic electoral system and a mainstream party that's going out of it's way at the very edge of legality to stop poor and minority people from voting.

True enough- Complacency and reaching into to rRed States, IIRC Georgia comes to miind, by Clinton was a losing strategy - Taking it to the Democratic States base was a winner.
Kerist, she was anointed by the donors and the high powers the Elites in the DNC before the primaries even began. And guess what Bernie, not a Dem came out of now where and how did he did? he did well which showed that not only were R's pissed, but D's as well.
And why, Clinton was despised by many Dems and it showed.
Yes you are correct, if the Democrats think they can run on a "Against Trump" they are and will lose.
Go to far to the left and they will lose.
They have left areas that are not urban and these people felt left out, and voted Trump or did not show up.
The farther left they go from State to National, the farther they will remain from power.
The DNC left the grass roots out.
And to hear HRC excuses for losing is enough to turn a dog away from a gut wagon.
And the last explains why the DNC base did not turn out in those few States which cost the Dems the election and left us with Trump.
Kerist IIRC she did not even visit one that went Trump - Over confidence lead many to a fall. And she had that in spades.
HRC is full of excuses, but no accountability for losing. She blames everyone but herself for the loss.

Incredible shrinking base

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way

SenorXm/Sirius

Rexedgar

Yo-Semite!

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

AlbqOwl

haymarket

haymarket

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

haymarket

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

Jetboogieman

Somewhere in Babylon

SonOfDaedalus

haymarket

SonOfDaedalus

JANFU

Land by the Gulf Stream