• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Voters favor Democrats over Republicans in 2018 House midterms by widest margin in years

Rogue Valley said:
Post-ABC poll: Voters favor Democrats over Republicans in 2018 House midterms by widest margin in years



Congressional midterm elections are still a year out. However, in their first year of executive/legislative majority control, Trump and the GOP have done substantial harm to their collective integrity, ethical reputations, and conservative ideology. The Republican Party of 20 years ago has ceased to exist and the GOP is currently losing wide support among Independents, women, college educated, minority/ethnic groups, and the LGBT community.

Related: GOP confronts nightmare scenario with Election Day one year out
Click to expand...

I hope this means more than just blue areas getting bluer.
 
Last edited:
Perotista said:
538 has a graph that keeps track of the generic congressional vote. Back in May the lead was four for the Democrats, today it is 9. That is an average of several polls. Keep in mind the first midterm is usually a referendum on the president.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

History has shown that a lead 8-10 points in the generic congressional polls, the party that doesn't hold the White House picks up 30 plus seats. With a year to go, this far out that lead could swing wildly and even go in the republican's favor. That happened back in 2009 and 2010. Where a five point lead for the democrats in December of 2009 switched to a seven point lead for the Republicans six months later. Here is a history of the first midterms.

Obama lost 63 seats in 2010
Bush gained 8 seats in 2002 But lost 33 seats in 2006
Clinton lost 54 seats in 1994
Bush lost 8 seats in 1990
Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982
Carter lost 15 seats in 1978
Nixon lost 12 seats in 1970
LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966
JFK lost 22 seats in 1962
Eisenhower lost 18 seats in 1954
Truman lost 28 seats in 1950
FDR gained 11 seats in 1934.

It's interesting to note that since FDR every president with the exception of G.W. Bush lost seats in the House in their first midterm. Now Bush had 9-11 happen prior to the midterm which unified the country behind him and his party. He lost 33 seats in his second midterm.
Click to expand...

Trafalgar Group from your Georgia and other GOP firms have new polling out on Virginia. They're my go-to firm right now. TG had 47 states correct last year. TG has Gillespie down 0.5 from 10/31 to 11/2. Rasmussen has it tied.

I expect further tightening of the GOP racist noose around Northam's neck, with Grotesque Gillespie winning. VA is the leader in term-limited stupidity, with a one-term limit on Givernors ...
 
NIMBY said:
Trafalgar Group from your Georgia and other GOP firms have new polling out on Virginia. They're my go-to firm right now. TG had 47 states correct last year. TG has Gillespie down 0.5 from 10/31 to 11/2. Rasmussen has it tied.

I expect further tightening of the GOP racist noose around Northam's neck, with Grotesque Gillespie winning. VA is the leader in term-limited stupidity, with a one-term limit on Givernors ...
Click to expand...

I haven't and don't delve into governors races like I do the senate and the house. I leave that to you. The Dem will win easily in NJ, a gain. VA, I'd say Northam. Trump's approval rating in VA is at 39% the last I seen. Same as the national average. I always thought a president with that low of an approval rating in a state, VA in this instant. That Trump would be a bigger drag than what he seems to be. Now I haven't followed that race, so I don't know if Northam made Trump an issue or not. The last VA governor's race surprised me by its closeness. So who knows? I suppose it all depends on turnout.

Trafalgar and Rasmussen both have MOE's of plus or minus 3.5 points. That makes it a tie, even. Both polls are within the MOE. Turnout my friend, it all depends on turnout.

I'm not a fan of term limits either. In fact I wouldn't mind seeing the 22nd amendment done away with. If the voters want to return a person for a second, third or fourth term ala FDR, that should be left up to them.
 
Perotista said:
Perhaps, the election is a year away and timing in an election is everything. Obama had a 43% approval rating in November of 2010 and the Dems lost 63 seats. He had an identical 43% in 2014 when the Dems lost the senate. Obama was at 53% approval in 2012 and he won re-election. Bush was at 67% in 2002, the GOP gained 8 house seats, Bush was at 53% in 2004 and won re-election and in 2006, Bush was at 30% and the Republicans lost 33 seats in the house and 6 senate seats.
Click to expand...

Obama’s approval was as perverted as Trump’s. His wasn’t reflective of the truth.

You poll his programs and they virtually all got slammed.

Unaffordable Care Act was responsible for the culling of the Left.

What has the Socialists of America Partei (SAPs), done to win the hearts of voters? Russia?

Their Goebbels Inspired Media Propagandists (GIMPs) haven’t help matters any.

My guess is the R’s will retain control of both chambers. In 2020, due to the economy, they’ll still retain and Trump will win again.

What does the Left have to offer? What great things did they accomplish during Obama’s reign of error?

Will be interesting.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Post-ABC poll: Voters favor Democrats over Republicans in 2018 House midterms by widest margin in years



Congressional midterm elections are still a year out. However, in their first year of executive/legislative majority control, Trump and the GOP have done substantial harm to their collective integrity, ethical reputations, and conservative ideology. The Republican Party of 20 years ago has ceased to exist and the GOP is currently losing wide support among Independents, women, college educated, minority/ethnic groups, and the LGBT community.

Related: GOP confronts nightmare scenario with Election Day one year out
Click to expand...

This would be the same mainstream media whose polling data was 100% conclusive that Donald Trump had no chance to win primaries, let alone the general election, and that Hillary was a shoo in?
 
VanceMack said:
Polling is almost always subjective. Especially when the proponents want to see the results stated a certain way. To trust the polling data you would have to trust both those conducting the polls and those reporting the poll results.
Click to expand...

... voting is "almost always subjective", and polling is the only way of measuring that subjectivity.
 
zimmer said:
Obama’s approval was as perverted as Trump’s. His wasn’t reflective of the truth.

You poll his programs and they virtually all got slammed.

Unaffordable Care Act was responsible for the culling of the Left.

What has the Socialists of America Partei (SAPs), done to win the hearts of voters? Russia?

Their Goebbels Inspired Media Propagandists (GIMPs) haven’t help matters any.

My guess is the R’s will retain control of both chambers. In 2020, due to the economy, they’ll still retain and Trump will win again.

What does the Left have to offer? What great things did they accomplish during Obama’s reign of error?

Will be interesting.
Click to expand...

It will be interesting for sure. Will history repeat itself because there are those who didn't learn from history? Or does history apply during the Trump era? Unanswered questions that will be answered in about a years time. Perhaps today, when all is said and done, we'll have a sneak preview.
 
AlbqOwl said:
This would be the same mainstream media whose polling data was 100% conclusive that Donald Trump had no chance to win primaries, let alone the general election, and that Hillary was a shoo in?
Click to expand...

That was punditry. Polls had Trump winning the primaries basically the whole way since he announced. Pundits just didn't take him seriously.

Polling in the general election was pretty spot on in most places. Missed a bit in the Upper Midwest where they underestimated Trump, but didn't overestimate Clinton and had high undecideds. But the political writers both dismissed Trump out of hand, and relied too heavily on the national polling which correctly showed Hillary ahead, and didn't take seriously the chance of a popular vote/electoral college split.
 
Anagram said:
That was punditry. Polls had Trump winning the primaries basically the whole way since he announced. Pundits just didn't take him seriously.

Polling in the general election was pretty spot on in most places. Missed a bit in the Upper Midwest where they underestimated Trump, but didn't overestimate Clinton and had high undecideds. But the political writers both dismissed Trump out of hand, and relied too heavily on the national polling which correctly showed Hillary ahead, and didn't take seriously the chance of a popular vote/electoral college split.
Click to expand...

Then why were the Vegas odds makers still giving Hillary better than 75% (or so) odds to win? They are currently giving Trump excellent odds to win re-election though.
 
AlbqOwl said:
Then why were the Vegas odds makers still giving Hillary better than 75% (or so) odds to win? They are currently giving Trump excellent odds to win re-election though.
Click to expand...

Vegas odds are based on who has already staked a position. Vegas uses the odds to hedge things back as close to 50-50 from the house (betting house/casino) perspective as possible. IOW, it's a reflection of money already bet.

Hope that makes sense...
 
AlbqOwl said:
Then why were the Vegas odds makers still giving Hillary better than 75% (or so) odds to win? They are currently giving Trump excellent odds to win re-election though.
Click to expand...

Maybe they got swept up in all the pundits' articles declaring Hillary a huge overwhelming favorit because of her national lead in polling.

I'd also disagree with Vegas currently giving Trump "excellent" odds. He's currently around 11/4, much higher than any other individual candidate, but fairly low overall considering he's the only one in the country with close to a 100% chance of being one of two major party nominees.
 
slick said:
The Trump deniers never learn: Check out Meet the Press silliness just 3 weeks before the 2016 election during apparently
Chuck Todds arrogance because of the expected landslide:

Meet the Press - October 16, 2016

Republicans feared that Trump's troubles would metastasize and take out down ballot Republicans threatening the party's
hold on the Senate and perhaps even the House. But we have a new indication of just how dire things have become for Trump.
In our new NBC News Wall Street Journal poll out right now Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in a four-way race by ten points
among registered voters, 47/37. If you limit it to just likely voters, check this out. Clinton's lead actually grows to 48/37.


MEET THE PRESS

OCT 23 2016, 12:24 PM ET

does she go for a big win, a landslide? Does she try to push hard into red states like Utah, Georgia, and Arizona, sensing an
opportunity for the biggest electoral victory in ages?

Funny stuff!!!!!
Click to expand...

Soon all you will have is reminiscences. It soon will be your turn to cry.

Washington (CNN)Tuesday night was very big for Democrats as the party won the governors' races in Virginia and New Jersey and scored a series of other victories from Maine to Washington State that suggests the forces opposed to President Donald Trump turned up in large numbers to send a message that they weren't happy with how he is doing the job.

Democrats -- and Governors-elect Ralph Northam (Virginia) and Phil Murphy (New Jersey) in particular -- were big winners.
Click to expand...
Winners and losers from the 2017 election - CNNPolitics
 
Common Sense 1 said:
Well they are not doing very well so far. Unless the democrats wake up and stop the stupid resist nonsense the republicans are going to win big in 2018!


Democrats just went 0-4. When will they win?
Click to expand...

Got that talking point in right before the expiration date!
 
Kurmugeon said:
*chuckle...


The Democratic Party hasn't been doing real well of late... perhaps you've been too buried in propaganda self-delusion to notice.


Without the working White Vote, the Dems can only win in a few "Designated Minority-Majority" districts.


The Dems cannot win back the Working White Vote without abandoning Racial Identity Politics.


If the Dems Step away from, and publically renounce their former support for Identity Politics, they'll lose the other half of their "Coalition".


In short, the Dems have poisoned their own political wellspring.

-
Click to expand...
Ya want that crow in a blender before you eat it?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom