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This is getting pretty damn scary!!

Renae said:
Hasn't been, isn't, we've been anticipating an active season based on the usual science and reading of the tea leaves preseason, it was primed to be active.
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Uh, hello? Are you even reading anymore? I wrote, not for the first time in these threads:

Climate science does not currently indicate that the frequency of Atlantic storms is likely to increase because of climate change.

It's an open question, there isn't solid evidence either way, which at a minimum suggests that 2017 isn't seeing an active hurricane season because of climate change.

I.e. I didn't suggest this would be a more active season because of climate change.

What we can surmise is that when hurricanes do start, and if they do hit land, they tend to produce a greater storm surge and more precipitation because of climate change.
 
blackjack50 said:
Mass hysteria.
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:roll:

I did not say "every storm is going to be 100 times worse!!!" I'm pointing out that the storms will produce more storm surge, and more precipitation. We're already seeing this.

That said, the biggest storm in over 160 years is apparently bearing down on you. Panic won't help, but... shouldn't you be evacuating right around now?


The storm is going to be bad. But the last bad one for us was 1992. And this hurricane season isn't over. Sure. But we have had bad years and the record is 1962. The facts are that recorded history isn't that long and we certainly don't have accurate records for even the recorded ones.
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1) I explicitly said "recorded history."
2) That record goes back to 1851. 166 years sure seems like a significant period of time.


Right now? This is all guess work. What happens when the hurricane season rolls around and we only had a few?
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Dude.

So far, we've had 12 depressions, 11 storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 of which were major hurricanes, 1 is the biggest in recorded history and it hasn't hit much land yet. Activity began early this year (April). That's almost as much as last year's total. We're already past a "few".


We forget about those predictions and move on to next year. Do you know how many times I've heard...as a Floridian....how bad the season will be? "We are due for a bad one."
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Yeah, I hate to break this to you, but the Anecdotal School of Collecting Data? That doesn't mean jack.

Seasonal predictions are still pretty difficult. But you need to do better than that to provide a genuine measure of their accuracy.
 
Visbek said:
:roll:

I did not say "every storm is going to be 100 times worse!!!" I'm pointing out that the storms will produce more storm surge, and more precipitation. We're already seeing this.

That said, the biggest storm in over 160 years is apparently bearing down on you. Panic won't help, but... shouldn't you be evacuating right around now?



1) I explicitly said "recorded history."
2) That record goes back to 1851. 166 years sure seems like a significant period of time.



Dude.

So far, we've had 12 depressions, 11 storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 of which were major hurricanes, 1 is the biggest in recorded history and it hasn't hit much land yet. Activity began early this year (April). That's almost as much as last year's total. We're already past a "few".



Yeah, I hate to break this to you, but the Anecdotal School of Collecting Data? That doesn't mean jack.

Seasonal predictions are still pretty difficult. But you need to do better than that to provide a genuine measure of their accuracy.
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I'm in Miami and am ten blocks from Bisquane Bay. CNN showed a map of what would flood with a 6-10 ft storm surge. I'm right by the freeway on that map. The storm surge they are predicting, not the rain water, will reach my block. The city is f-ing up the shelters. It doesn't come close to Houston.

I plan to report my situation.
The power will for sure go out.

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Is their incontrovertible evidence that warming is caused by humans? Thats a serious question. I don't follow the whole stupid debate closely.

Also, if is really is "settled science" that humans cause warming, is there any settled science that ties any policy prescription proposal that currently exists to a measurable decrease in global warming?


SenorXm/Sirius said:
Only morons would deny that the climate is changing. There's NO doubt that it is getting warmer. personally I'm not convinced it is all mankind's fault, but I am sure things are warming up. This planet of ours has warmed and cooled many times all by itself, and it's probably warming up again, with a little help from us. But to deny that is is warming up is moronic. The Gulf of mexico is 5 degrees warmer than normal, that tells us that something is changing.

The smart thing to do is instead of denying that the climate is changing is to prepare for those changes. No matter what the causes are, the climate is changing. So spend the time and money to prepare for those changes.
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There are several factors which are contributing to climate change, but man is a major one. The carbon dioxide we are adding to the air is heating up both the air and especially important to the oceans. The warmer the oceans the bigger the hurricanes. The heat of the oceans provide the fuel for the hurricanes,
 
Good luck, all of you there are in our prayers.
 
Dirt Sands said:
I'm in Miami and am ten blocks from Bisquane Bay. CNN showed a map of what would flood with a 6-10 ft storm surge. I'm right by the freeway on that map. The storm surge they are predicting, not the rain water, will reach my block. The city is f-ing up the shelters. It doesn't come close to Houston.

I plan to report my situation.
The power will for sure go out.

Sent from my Z833 using Tapatalk
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Got a generator; don't run it at night with carbon monoxide potential;

Make your own ice ASAP; freeze jugs of water; obviously you know not to open freezers and fridges unless absolutely necessary;

Got a 2nd floor? Go to stilts on 1st floor like concrete blocks and chairs; wish I could be there to help volunteer;

The first surge is the worst obviously; watch the high tide?!

Batteries for flashlights and radios; use radio in car if one is unavailable; will keep writing down ideas; Creator's Speed ;;;
 
Dirt Sands said:
CNN showed a flood map as it relates to storm surge, it looked as though the water stops at my block. The water I'm referring to is the ocean.

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Just started raining. There big raindrops. Looking South I can see the rain as well as low dark clouds. We're out of the cone as it goes more west.

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NIMBY said:
Got a generator; don't run it at night with carbon monoxide potential;

Make your own ice ASAP; freeze jugs of water; obviously you know not to open freezers and fridges unless absolutely necessary;

Got a 2nd floor? Go to stilts on 1st floor like concrete blocks and chairs; wish I could be there to help volunteer;

The first surge is the worst obviously; watch the high tide?!

Batteries for flashlights and radios; use radio in car if one is unavailable; will keep writing down ideas; Creator's Speed ;;;
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I'm in a shelter on the third floor.

Sent from my Z833 using Tapatalk
 
Dirt Sands said:
I'm in Miami and am ten blocks from Bisquane Bay. CNN showed a map of what would flood with a 6-10 ft storm surge. I'm right by the freeway on that map. The storm surge they are predicting, not the rain water, will reach my block. The city is f-ing up the shelters. It doesn't come close to Houston.

I plan to report my situation.
The power will for sure go out.

Sent from my Z833 using Tapatalk
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Good luck.
 
Dirt Sands said:
I'm in a shelter on the third floor.

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I'm sorry to hear you couldn't get out of there. Fleeing a monster storm is always preferable to sheltering through one.
 
Renae said:
I'm sorry to hear you couldn't get out of there. Fleeing a monster storm is always preferable to sheltering through one.
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We are getting very lucky. Only sparatic rain between rain bands. There has been wind, but right now there is a still calm. We're going to get something. To early to know if we can venture out.

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independentusa said:
https://qz.com/1072166/irma-jose-and-katia-three-hurricanes-in-one-satellite-image/?utm_source=qzfb
Three hurricanes in a row. Wonder if a fourth or even fifth will form once these move to the west. Is this just normal or might it have something to do with climate change. Of course a lot of you don't believe in climate change, especially those who live in the Southern parts of our country. Well as the saying goes, wake up and smell the coffee.
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Is this the first time three major storms have occurred?
 
Dirt Sands said:
We are getting very lucky. Only sparatic rain between rain bands. There has been wind, but right now there is a still calm. We're going to get something. To early to know if we can venture out.

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It's possible that thing misses ya'll entirely. I don't trust that hard turn. Might happen, not saying it won't, just... makes me leery.
 
Visbek said:
From what I know, climate scientists are still debating whether climate change results in more hurricanes and tropical storms.

One vastly oversimplified reason is that most such storms start because of temperature differences between the ocean and the atmosphere. If both are warming, that doesn't necessarily result in more storms.

However, climate scientists do seem to generally agree that:
• climate change makes the resulting storms more intense
• climate change is increasing sea levels, which makes storms surges more intense

There are also some scientists who posit that climate change has produced certain changes in the North American atmosphere which helped pin down Harvey.

We should also note that there were some predictions that there would be more hurricanes than usual, in part because there was no El Nino.

Oh, and Jose probably won't hit land. It is predicted to curve out to sea.
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How much have sea levels risen, and has the rate of rising sea levels increased, post industrial revolution? ;)
 
Renae said:
It's possible that thing misses ya'll entirely. I don't trust that hard turn. Might happen, not saying it won't, just... makes me leery.
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They're still projecting winds at hurricane force tomorrow evening along with a 4-6 ft storm surge.

Check out what I'm hearing at the shelter.

People are asking why city officials did not issue a mandatory evacuation for Dade county. Enlight of the strongest hurricane in history, only Miami Beach and the Keys, which are islands, were issued mandatory evac. The claim is that the city was throwing the poor people in the county into the wind. There was no plan for them. Few shelters were open and those that were, were not prepared. Homeless people got in shelters but what about all the others? People were turned away with pets and others were told there wasn't room when there was. There are rumors about Red cross shelters being open, specifically at Booker T Washington High School, when they never came at all.

I'm stund

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MaggieD said:
I think everybody believes in climate change. But climate changes don't mean we're going into the next ice age or that NYC will one day be underwater due to any actions by mankind.

Mother Nature is invincible.
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But doesn't it make sense to err on the side of caution and do our best to keep our air clean? Are we really going to regret cleaning up our air? No, but we might regret not doing enough. It's a nobrainer.

Also, keep in mind that there are more green jobs now than ever. We don't just lose fossil fuel jobs, we gain green jobs of the future in exchange for jobs that are dying out.

betterworldfornothing.jpg
 
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SonOfDaedalus said:
But doesn't it make sense to err on the side of caution and do our best to keep our air clean? Are we really going to regret cleaning up our air? No, but we might regret not doing enough. It's a nobrainer.

Also, keep in mind that there are more green jobs now than ever. We don't just lose fossil fuel jobs, we gain green jobs of the future in exchange for jobs that are dying out.

betterworldfornothing.jpg
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I don't disagree. What I DO disagree with is the Federal government telling states what to do. When the Fed does it, they blanket regulations not tailored to individual states.

The government is the largest employer in the United States. IMO, although off topic, the Fed could lead by example. I can't imagine how many cars the Fed owns, but if they were either pcompressed natural or electrically powered, I know we'd change the gas station model in a heartbeat. And with THAT change, many more would be incentivized to buy cleaner cars. That would be a wonderful thing. Just THAT would make the world a better greener place.

Las Vegas has been using compressed natural gas for their taxi fleets for years. It can be done. Let the Feds lead the way instead of blanket restricting the entire country.
 
countryboy said:
Is this the first time three major storms have occurred?
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Nope ....I repeat


Subject: E18) What was the largest number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time?*

Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC)

Four hurricanes occurred simultaneously on two occasions. The first occasion was August 22, 1893, and one of these eventually killed 1,000- 2,000 people in Georgia and South Carolina. The second occurrence was September 25, 1998, when Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl persisted into September 27, 1998 as hurricanes. Georges ended up taking the lives of thousands in Haiti. In 1971 from September 10 to 12, there were five tropical cyclones at the same time; however, while most of these ultimately achieved hurricane intensity, there were never more than two hurricanes at any one time.


TCFAQ E18) What was the largest number of hurricanes in the Atlantic


U know 1893 was a big year for Exxon
 
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You don't want the Federal government to tell the states what to do, but do you believe that state governments should tell local governments what they can do. A county in Wisconsin wanted to limit the number of sand mines in their country. The silica released into the air by this mining and by the trucks hauling the sand can cause cancer. The state government that is totally controlled by the GOP quickly passed a law keeping local government from in acting such rules. So do you agree with this?
 
independentusa said:
https://qz.com/1072166/irma-jose-and-katia-three-hurricanes-in-one-satellite-image/?utm_source=qzfb
Three hurricanes in a row. Wonder if a fourth or even fifth will form once these move to the west. Is this just normal or might it have something to do with climate change. Of course a lot of you don't believe in climate change, especially those who live in the Southern parts of our country. Well as the saying goes, wake up and smell the coffee.
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Climate changes all the time. Wasn't that long ago we went through a mini ice-age. The question or debate is whether it is the earth going through natural cycles man caused or not. My own opinion is if man is causing climate change it has more to do with man cutting down the rain forests and destroying forests and farm land, vegetation that eats up CO2. Replacing all that vegetation with asphalt and concrete is more of a problem than emissions caused by man.

Making room for urban sprawl, suburbs and cutting down the rain forests leaves less vegetation to absorb the CO2. Since I was born I seen several counties around the city of Atlanta turned from woods, farm land into shopping malls, houses and the like. Now nothing more than asphalt and concrete.

Many folks think I'm crazy. But I wonder if we would be worried about climate change today if we had left all that vegetation sapping up CO2 in place.
 
Moderate Right said:
Surprise, surprise. We've got some far right wackos saying that hurricanes are the result of homosexuality and we've got the left saying that there are hurricanes during hurricane season.
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and we have some plain old wackos saying that we aren't seeing extremes of weather. That's the problem, too many wackos.
 
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