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I believe the CBO stated that at a certain point in time, Trumpcare would have overall been cheaper than Obamacare (apparently not for certain sectors such as seniors), for a few different reasons. Of course you are right in that it is all just guesswork, as I pointed out to those on the left who were blasting Trumpcare.
It was mainly judged to be "cheaper" because (20 million?) less folks would be spending money on medical care insurance. Like I said before, if 20 less cars are sold that likely does not affect the price of a car sold but it does affect the "overall" money spent on cars.