Senator Joe Arpaio

azgreg said:

Yep. Got his ass kicked by a democrat in the reddest county in Arizona.

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It may have had to do with the judge indicting Arpaio weeks or so before the election.

slick said:

... dull knife that he is....

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"I can't believe it's not butter."

AYSM said:

Thank you for the poll links...I don't know anything about them either but it does paint a picture that seems to go along with my take...will be interesting to hopefully get some poll trends if they follow-up with regular polling

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Polls this far in advance are unusual, but not unheard of. Polling for most senatorial party primaries only start about 2-3 months in advance unless there is something unusual going on. Which in Arizona's case, that seems to be true.

Perotista said:

Polls this far in advance are unusual, but not unheard of. Polling for most senatorial party primaries only start about 2-3 months in advance unless there is something unusual going on. Which in Arizona's case, that seems to be true.

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True that...getting more interesting living in Arizona

AYSM said:

True that...getting more interesting living in Arizona

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Out of the 8 senate seats the GOP has up for re-election next year, Arizona and Nevada are the only two that are in danger for the Republicans. Like Flake in Arizona, Heller is in Trouble in Nevada. With 25 Democratic seats up against 8 for the GOP one would expect at least a 4-5 seat pick up for the Republicans. That probably will not be the case if the early polling is any indication. Only two Democratic seats looks at this time as they may switch hands, Missouri and Indiana.

Perotista said:

Out of the 8 senate seats the GOP has up for re-election next year, Arizona and Nevada are the only two that are in danger for the Republicans. Like Flake in Arizona, Heller is in Trouble in Nevada. With 25 Democratic seats up against 8 for the GOP one would expect at least a 4-5 seat pick up for the Republicans. That probably will not be the case if the early polling is any indication. Only two Democratic seats looks at this time as they may switch hands, Missouri and Indiana.

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I would agree that Missouri and Indiana are the most likely, but I think Montana, West Virginia, and North Dakota are no better than 50-50 for Democrats as well. Strong incumbents, but with states Trump won by 20-42%, it will be really tough for them to hang on.

Anagram said:

I would agree that Missouri and Indiana are the most likely, but I think Montana, West Virginia, and North Dakota are no better than 50-50 for Democrats as well. Strong incumbents, but with states Trump won by 20-42%, it will be really tough for them to hang on.

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True. The latest I have on Trump's approval is in North Dakota he is at 59%, Montana at 56% and in West Virginia at 60%. No brainier, right? I'm not sure as Trump isn't running in 2018, his name isn't on the ballot. Heitkamp, Tester and Manchin are all popular senators in their states. So much depends on whom the Republicans choose to run against them. All three of them won in 2012 a presidential year. North Dakota went to Romney by 20 points, yet Heitkamp won. Montana went to Romney by 15 and Tester won, West Virginia to Romney by 27 points and Manchin won, Manchin by 24 points. Manchin was popular ex-governor. HeitKamp and Tester were very close winning by one and two points.

We'll see, as the midterms come closer, these races become much more clearer.

At the rate things are evolving the only money I'm willing to put up is that Trump won't make it full term.

Looking at 2018, it can go either way...I concur that AZ and NV are the biggies and I understand trying to factor in Trump popularity vs Dems seats but they were elected in the first place and good chance may get stronger support as Trump continues to alienate folks in bits and pieces.

Trump has a strong base hanging onto short coattails.