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Automation: What Will Happen When All the Jobs Are Gone?

I guess the way to think of it, from my perspective, is to picture a pyramid. At the bottom you have the least skilled jobs, which traditionally has also represented the greatest number of jobs, with specialization and number of jobs narrowing as the pyramid goes up. As robots become more and more capable, thus climbing up the pyramid, consuming more and more jobs, the number of jobs left become far more specialized than what people have traditionally had to be trained for, requiring more money and time for school, and creating more competition because there are fewer of those jobs, which will also mean that the wages will go down - supply and demand. Furthermore, if it can be demonstrated that a robot can do the job they trained for a decade or so after they secure that job, retraining is a huge undertaking, because of how specialized they are.

The problem is that robotic technologies are getting better at doing more than just the basics at a much faster rate, as mentioned in the post I referenced, and the articles therein, which is why it is a question of timeline. The introduction of robots in the workforce has been pretty minimal, and has had a big impact...but they are just getting started, in terms of what technology can accomplish. The danger is as they are able to do more and more, and cost the corporations that employ them less and less, human beings will be less and less desirable as corporate assets, due to their overhead. And since capitalism is king, there is nothing motivating companies to employ people when they can spend a lot less money on a machine.
I think your discounted new industries that ineitable spring up from this kind of thing.

I guess what I disagree with you on is that you sound concerned people are going to run out of work to do because you think robots are going to do it all. I think there is so much work left for mankind to do that we could not build enough robots to do it all.

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I think your discounted new industries that ineitable spring up from this kind of thing.

I guess what I disagree with you on is that you sound concerned people are going to run out of work to do because you think robots are going to do it all. I think there is so much work left for mankind to do that we could not build enough robots to do it all.

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That's not how it looks, based on the number of jobs being impacted, and again, the jobs that will be left will require a ton of education and investment to get there. While perhaps not a "rich" person's problem, the added strain on social services, or the moral strain of allowing people who can't find work to starve, certainly will be.

If robots can make cars, and a perfect Eggs Benedict, certainly they can make other robots.

I agree, this is not tomorrow's problem...but remember 20 years ago, when the Internet seemed to be a fad? If corporations feel like they can save a lot of money through robotic work forces, the investment will be (is) huge, and the tech will be delivered. It's not if, it's when...without some moral "Come to Jesus" moment on the part of Corporate America. We can't all be doctors and lawyers and CEO's...
 
There will still be jobs just different ones.
This cry of robots taking our jobs is an old one. Now if ever we get true AI that can think up new inventions/ways of doing things then we will no longer have to worry about jobs as the Terminator will become reality
 
That's not how it looks, based on the number of jobs being impacted, and again, the jobs that will be left will require a ton of education and investment to get there. While perhaps not a "rich" person's problem, the added strain on social services, or the moral strain of allowing people who can't find work to starve, certainly will be.

If robots can make cars, and a perfect Eggs Benedict, certainly they can make other robots.

I agree, this is not tomorrow's problem...but remember 20 years ago, when the Internet seemed to be a fad? If corporations feel like they can save a lot of money through robotic work forces, the investment will be (is) huge, and the tech will be delivered. It's not if, it's when...without some moral "Come to Jesus" moment on the part of Corporate America. We can't all be doctors and lawyers and CEO's...
One thing your saying that I do agree with is that education is going to have a higher demand placed on it. Tomorrows working will be more cerebul than todays just as we are compared to those before us. We are climbing up another rung on the ladder.

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There will still be jobs just different ones.
This cry of robots taking our jobs is an old one. Now if ever we get true AI that can think up new inventions/ways of doing things then we will no longer have to worry about jobs as the Terminator will become reality
we are not far from that either. The obsticle is in the programming, its in the processor power. machines can think on their own already. To build a processor that is equal to the brain currently requires a room about the size of a superwallmart. 100yrs from now that wont be true.

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Again, we've never had fully automated workplaces before. The past does not dictate the future.

Tell me, where are all the workers going to get jobs when you wipe out 900 of 1000 jobs and automate them? In TODAY'S tech, the point is to do more with fewer, or no people. You can literally have 1 person manage an entire automated factory, with a repair person who comes by now and then. Where do the other workers find jobs?

First up are all the paid drivers out there - taxi services + Uber/Lyft, and the truck drivers. 5 million minimum. Where are the jobs for these people? C'mon, someone tell me... where are the jobs?

6.2 million job openings ...

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
 
we are not far from that either. The obsticle is in the programming, its in the processor power. machines can think on their own already. To build a processor that is equal to the brain currently requires a room about the size of a superwallmart. 100yrs from now that wont be true.

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Then in 100 years we will be extinct and the question of jobs is irrelevant
 
One thing your saying that I do agree with is that education is going to have a higher demand placed on it. Tomorrows working will be more cerebul than todays just as we are compared to those before us. We are climbing up another rung on the ladder.

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In a perfect world (well, my perfect world), the answer to all of this will be putting value on the things that robots cannot do (yet), or things we would never want them to do. It used to be possible to make a living as a poet, for example. Not so much now. The "Liberal Arts" tend to be those that cannot be translated well to computers...for now....and hopefully people will be able to make a living that way...but only if society values it or subsidizes it.

Honestly, I like the idea of a cashless society. If we, as a species, have come to the point where toil can be automated, we should celebrate by enjoying it, getting to the point where we can spend our lives in the pursuit of those things that make us happy. Plenty of people will continue to work at something, because we tend to like to do that...but it won't be because we have to, it will be because we want to, and imagine the output if that is the motivation.

This transition does NOT have to be scary...we just have to sort of ditch the whole "if you're not earning, you're not worth a damn" mentality and embrace lives spent becoming artistically, spiritually, philosophically, intellectually better, instead of simply defining worth by the amount of money you have in your bank account.

Utopian, I know...but for the first time we can actually contemplate it within the realm of scientific possibility, and that's pretty cool.
 
I want to see the day that automation clears trees, tests for soil compaction, grades a lot, lays a foundation, and frames a house.

Or better yet, hang a 140 sheets of rock.

All of these are getting us closer to that day ...

Clearing trees ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYKg0gbRFns

Not a foundation, but a brick road ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIhttsAM5YQ

I don't know exactly what testing for soil compaction is, but I bet something like the Mars Rover could handle it.

Building walls in a factory ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLugAuFAS5w
 
In a perfect world (well, my perfect world), the answer to all of this will be putting value on the things that robots cannot do (yet), or things we would never want them to do. It used to be possible to make a living as a poet, for example. Not so much now. The "Liberal Arts" tend to be those that cannot be translated well to computers...for now....and hopefully people will be able to make a living that way...but only if society values it or subsidizes it.

Honestly, I like the idea of a cashless society. If we, as a species, have come to the point where toil can be automated, we should celebrate by enjoying it, getting to the point where we can spend our lives in the pursuit of those things that make us happy. Plenty of people will continue to work at something, because we tend to like to do that...but it won't be because we have to, it will be because we want to, and imagine the output if that is the motivation.

This transition does NOT have to be scary...we just have to sort of ditch the whole "if you're not earning, you're not worth a damn" mentality and embrace lives spent becoming artistically, spiritually, philosophically, intellectually better, instead of simply defining worth by the amount of money you have in your bank account.

Utopian, I know...but for the first time we can actually contemplate it within the realm of scientific possibility, and that's pretty cool.
few things

Some poets today get paid nicely. What are many rock stars if not poets?

If your into a cashless society you should check out bitcoins. Its a step toward what your describing. It removes the need for centralized banking and removes threir control of monetary values.

I personaly see thousands of years worth of work for mankind before we reach the point of avoiding our extinction. Once we leave this planet the workload will be extrordinary learning how to colonize space and perhaps surving the next big bang event if thats real.

you might get a kick out of this story. My son is in college and I vistited him and his freinds. We are sitting around in an altered state throwing around ideas. Apparently I freaked them out when I brought my vision of space travel. I basicaly described a chain of cities built in a line going toward any given area. Each city placed about a generation apart. People travel on ships to get from one city to the next and then when they get to the one furthest out they build a new one farther out. The part that freaked them out was that I suggested that as these ships passed by planets they should stop and rape them of their usefull resources and carry them forward, to be used to build the next city in the chain. His freinds cant decide if they hate me for being an evil conservative or like me cause im really cool too, lol.

I tease these kids all the time. I stuck a Trump bumper sticker on his best freinds bedroom window where he didnt notice it. His window faces the street and he finally figured it out when all the kids coming by started picking on him for being a Trummper. They are a great bunch of kids and I can tell you millenials are getting a bad rap right now. They are smart and not the snowflakes people think they are. They laugh at most of the dumb crap we fight about politically. They think for themselves.


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few things

Some poets today get paid nicely. What are many rock stars if not poets?

If your into a cashless society you should check out bitcoins. Its a step toward what your describing. It removes the need for centralized banking and removes threir control of monetary values.

I personaly see thousands of years worth of work for mankind before we reach the point of avoiding our extinction. Once we leave this planet the workload will be extrordinary learning how to colonize space and perhaps surving the next big bang event if thats real.

you might get a kick out of this story. My son is in college and I vistited him and his freinds. We are sitting around in an altered state throwing around ideas. Apparently I freaked them out when I brought my vision of space travel. I basicaly described a chain of cities built in a line going toward any given area. Each city placed about a generation apart. People travel on ships to get from one city to the next and then when they get to the one furthest out they build a new one farther out. The part that freaked them out was that I suggested that as these ships passed by planets they should stop and rape them of their usefull resources and carry them forward, to be used to build the next city in the chain. His freinds cant decide if they hate me for being an evil conservative or like me cause im really cool too, lol.

I tease these kids all the time. I stuck a Trump bumper sticker on his best freinds bedroom window where he didnt notice it. His window faces the street and he finally figured it out when all the kids coming by started picking on him for being a Trummper. They are a great bunch of kids and I can tell you millenials are getting a bad rap right now. They are smart and not the snowflakes people think they are. They laugh at most of the dumb crap we fight about politically. They think for themselves.


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hehe...well, here's hoping you're right... I think regardless to how long we have tangible toil in our species' future, we will need to adapt away from this current model in order to be able to look after ourselves as a species. Whether that means mass retraining and industry creation, whether that means subsidization of essentials, whether that means building a chain of cities from here to the planet Zeeno, it's going to require that we move past the concept of financial worth defining total worth, and the overall concept of Libertarianism. We are pack animals at the end of the day, we are successful because we worked together to be successful, either voluntarily or at the point of a sword. I don't think we ever escape that...we need each other. Mechanical automation of labor can provide a lot of freedom for us to figure that out, if that is what we prioritize. Or, it can put us back in the dark ages. Guess we, as a species of course, will find out. :)

Nice talking to you - sorry if I was a little prickish at the start, I misread your tack Have a good one. :)
 
hehe...well, here's hoping you're right... I think regardless to how long we have tangible toil in our species' future, we will need to adapt away from this current model in order to be able to look after ourselves as a species. Whether that means mass retraining and industry creation, whether that means subsidization of essentials, whether that means building a chain of cities from here to the planet Zeeno, it's going to require that we move past the concept of financial worth defining total worth, and the overall concept of Libertarianism. We are pack animals at the end of the day, we are successful because we worked together to be successful, either voluntarily or at the point of a sword. I don't think we ever escape that...we need each other. Mechanical automation of labor can provide a lot of freedom for us to figure that out, if that is what we prioritize. Or, it can put us back in the dark ages. Guess we, as a species of course, will find out. :)

Nice talking to you - sorry if I was a little prickish at the start, I misread your tack Have a good one. :)
I took no offense. I enjoyed our exchange. Take care.

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