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Trump on Using Trade Deals to Leverage China into dealing with DPRK

Winston

Winston

Give me convenience or give me death
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Trump seeks to leverage his position on trade with China because, then something something, Kim Jon Un is deposed. Here's an excerpt from a recent interview between the press corps and Trump.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...times&smtyp=cur&referer=http://m.facebook.com

Trump said:
Very important to me with China, we have to fix the trade. We have to fix the trade. And I’ve been going a little bit easier because I’d like to have their help. It’s hard to go ***. But we have to fix the trade with China because it’s very, very none-reciprocal.
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Press Corps said:
Q Is that your bargaining chip with them to get on board with North Korea? Is, like, you want to —
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Trump said:
THE PRESIDENT: Nobody has ever said it before. I say it all the time. Somebody said, what cards do you have? I said, very simple — trade. We are being absolutely devastated by bad trade deals. We have the worst of all trade deals is with China.

We have a bad deal with South Korea. We’re just starting negotiations with South Korea. South Korea, we protect, but we’re losing $40 billion a year with South Korea on trade. We have a trade deficit of $40 billion. The deal just came up.

That was another Hillary Clinton beauty. Remember she said it was five-year deal, and now it’s an extension period. She said this will put jobs in our country. She said we’ll make money with it. Great. We’re losing $40 billion a year. It’s a horrible deal. So we’re starting — we started, as of yesterday, renegotiating the deal with South Korea. We have to.

But the biggest strength we have are these horrendous trade deals, like with China. That’s our strength. But we’re going to fix them. But in terms of North Korea, our strength is trade.
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Trump seems focused on two things here.

1. The U.S. is getting exploited somehow.. and that is a problem, without DPRK. (We're going to talk tough on trade anyway, oh and by the way, we want you to fix DPRK too, or else!!)

2. The U.S. has power by leveraging its markets to extort the Chinese and South Korea into solving a totally unrelated problem: DPRK.

Is trade with China or, South Korea (two different agreements in and of themselves, Trump seems to interchange one for the other belying a poor understanding of the topic) connected in any way to a workable solution for DPRK? I don't believe the two are connected. Trump is conflating Wilbur Ross' job as commerce secretary with Rex Tillerson's job as SOS.
 
Winston said:
Trump seeks to leverage his position on trade with China because, then something something, Kim Jon Un is deposed. Here's an excerpt from a recent interview between the press corps and Trump.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...times&smtyp=cur&referer=http://m.facebook.com







Trump seems focused on two things here.

1. The U.S. is getting exploited somehow.. and that is a problem, without DPRK. (We're going to talk tough on trade anyway, oh and by the way, we want you to fix DPRK too, or else!!)

2. The U.S. has power by leveraging its markets to extort the Chinese and South Korea into solving a totally unrelated problem: DPRK.

Is trade with China or, South Korea (two different agreements in and of themselves, Trump seems to interchange one for the other belying a poor understanding of the topic) connected in any way to a workable solution for DPRK? I don't believe the two are connected. Trump is conflating Wilbur Ross' job as commerce secretary with Rex Tillerson's job as SOS.
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I agree that I am not at all convinced of Trump's savvy concerning security and international trade economics. He probably has a better grasp of how business works than other Presidents.

But I beg to disagree with the idea that these things are not connected given the fact that we are paying an enormous proportion of the costs of international security within whuch framework the tarde takes place.
 
Given that China's trade with North Korea has been growing significantly we can assume that China is blowing Trump off
 
ForeignRightist said:
Can you substantiate that with evidance?

Last I heard the Chinese slashed their coal imports from NK, a fair blow to their economy.
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The thing is, economic sanctions just affect the general milieu rather than the leadership. and the general milieu is too brainwashed into believing Kim Jong Un is God and everyone else is evil, that they will never rise up in revolt, when conditions get so ****ty they are warring over bread in the streets, they will just blame themselves for angering their god king.
 
The thing Trump doesn't realize is China has strategic reasons for supporting North Korea. If the North Korean regime collaspes, China would have to deal a refugee crisis on its border and China doesn't want US troops on its border if the Koreas become unified.
 
joG said:
I agree that I am not at all convinced of Trump's savvy concerning security and international trade economics. He probably has a better grasp of how business works than other Presidents.

But I beg to disagree with the idea that these things are not connected given the fact that we are paying an enormous proportion of the costs of international security within whuch framework the tarde takes place.
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So it is your contention that Trump wants to reduce defense spending? Funny but it seems he wants to do the opposite. How can increasing defense spending reduce our " enormous proportion of the costs of international security"? Do you think that other nations "duped" us into this situation or could it be that it is a result of our enormous defense spending for the last 50 years? All that military money has to go somewhere doesn't it?
 
Yes_Minister said:
The thing Trump doesn't realize is China has strategic reasons for supporting North Korea. If the North Korean regime collaspes, China would have to deal a refugee crisis on its border and China doesn't want US troops on its border if the Koreas become unified.
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Yes and for that reason China will never cause regime change in N. Korea no matter what we threaten them with. I do think it is a possibility that a deal could be made for them to freeze their missile and nuclear programs but they will never give them up.
 
Yes_Minister said:
The thing Trump doesn't realize is China has strategic reasons for supporting North Korea. If the North Korean regime collaspes, China would have to deal a refugee crisis on its border and China doesn't want US troops on its border if the Koreas become unified.
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Good points and Trump had them explained to him by the President of China.

However, here's why what Trump actually said above, is idiotic to me. I do not condone the accuracy of Trump's assessment, I'm only placing myself in his shoes and assuming his style of thinking.

According to Trump, China has the better end of a trade deal right now. And Trump would like to renegotiate a trade deal in more favorable terms to the U.S. So, he already wants something from China. And then he's adding that China handle the DPRK situation on top of that. He's two steps behind. Why would China accept a bilateral agreement that gives the U.S. more, as well as fix the DPRK problem, something that is more in U.S. interests than Chinese interests? So, the Chinese have a net loss on a trade agreement, and they are rewarded by involving themselves further in the geopolitics of Korea.. ultimately gaining nothing and the U.S. gets a double whammy. Trump is a garbage thinker who is used to being able to intimidate and bluster his way through life. His only move to coerce the Chinese into putting futile economic sanctions on DPRK is to rip our bilateral with China, which he cannot and will not do.
 
When Trump tries to explain a policy "idea", I am reminded of.......

baldric.jpg









He really seems to think he can bully China into handling NK for us. Oy.
 
iguanaman said:
So it is your contention that Trump wants to reduce defense spending? Funny but it seems he wants to do the opposite. How can increasing defense spending reduce our " enormous proportion of the costs of international security"? Do you think that other nations "duped" us into this situation or could it be that it is a result of our enormous defense spending for the last 50 years? All that military money has to go somewhere doesn't it?
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And you think this is a contradiction that is more than illusion and isn't two sides of the coin?
 
Winston said:
Trump seeks to leverage his position on trade with China because, then something something, Kim Jon Un is deposed. Here's an excerpt from a recent interview between the press corps and Trump.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...times&smtyp=cur&referer=http://m.facebook.com







Trump seems focused on two things here.

1. The U.S. is getting exploited somehow.. and that is a problem, without DPRK. (We're going to talk tough on trade anyway, oh and by the way, we want you to fix DPRK too, or else!!)

2. The U.S. has power by leveraging its markets to extort the Chinese and South Korea into solving a totally unrelated problem: DPRK.

Is trade with China or, South Korea (two different agreements in and of themselves, Trump seems to interchange one for the other belying a poor understanding of the topic) connected in any way to a workable solution for DPRK? I don't believe the two are connected. Trump is conflating Wilbur Ross' job as commerce secretary with Rex Tillerson's job as SOS.
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I don't understand how you have drawn your conclusions based on the links you provided.
 
code1211 said:
I don't understand how you have drawn your conclusions based on the links you provided.
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As far as 'deal making' goes. Trump isn't making a great deal. He's basically saying, "China, you have to take a kick in the nuts, and since you're taking a kick in the nuts for us, America will let you handle the North Korea situation that is more in our interests than yours."

If China handles DPRK, they should be rewarded. That's how bargains work. You get something, I get something. However, instead of rewarding China with a more favorable trade deal, he's saying, I'm taking more for us, and China you get nothing. Why would the Chinese agree to that?
 
Winston said:
As far as 'deal making' goes. Trump isn't making a great deal. He's basically saying, "China, you have to take a kick in the nuts, and since you're taking a kick in the nuts for us, America will let you handle the North Korea situation that is more in our interests than yours."

If China handles DPRK, they should be rewarded. That's how bargains work. You get something, I get something. However, instead of rewarding China with a more favorable trade deal, he's saying, I'm taking more for us, and China you get nothing. Why would the Chinese agree to that?
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At the risk of opening your eyes, China are currently enjoying a very large trade balance with the US. they're doing the same with countries around the world.

The Carrot offered by Trump is that this may be allowed to continue under the current favorable arrangements.

The stick that trump waved was the cessation of the favorability of the current arrangements.

China presents itself as a struggling emerging economy in need of special rules and considerations and yet is the second largest economy on the planet.

China is the enabler of North Korea. Even with the massive support by China for Korea, Kim operates a starvation society with ballistic missiles and Nukes.

It seems to me the best way for China to provide some Bona Fides to justify its place at the global table is to shorten the leash on the barking dog it keeps in a pen on its southern border.

It's the neighborly thing to do.

Trump has simply mentioned to our neighbor over the back fence that he would really appreciate the gesture. The barking dog is keeping everyone awake at night.

It's rude to have a nuisance like this and not control it. Maybe China will take the hint.

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277
 
code1211 said:
The Carrot offered by Trump is that this may be allowed to continue under the current favorable arrangements.
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This is just incorrect. Trump has repeatedly said he wants to "fix trade" with China.


The stick that trump waved was the cessation of the favorability of the current arrangements.
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Why would they handle DPRK in U.S. interests and then get kicked in the balls with quotas or tariffs in U.S. interests? It's a stupid deal. It's okay to say it. Trump has no plan, and is just vomitting garbage up for interviewers, because he has no idea what he's doing.
 
Winston said:
This is just incorrect. Trump has repeatedly said he wants to "fix trade" with China.




Why would they handle DPRK in U.S. interests and then get kicked in the balls with quotas or tariffs in U.S. interests? It's a stupid deal. It's okay to say it. Trump has no plan, and is just vomitting garbage up for interviewers, because he has no idea what he's doing.
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Trump was bent on fixing the trade with China and then backed off of that position when the North Korea thing came up.

Who knows? THAT could have been a bargaining chip manufactured by China.

The FACT of the matter, though, whatever the source of the idea, is that the idea of China helping with controlling the North Koreans came up.

Trump: China taking unprecedented steps to help with North Korea's nukes | PolitiFact
 
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