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GOP vote trend continues

pounder

pounder

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Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
 
pounder said:
Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
Click to expand...

The spin is real with you.
 
pounder said:
Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
Click to expand...

A lot can change before the midterms. Unfortunately moral victories are just something the only losing side talks about.

Special elections, more often than not, replace a veteran lawmaker with a new face. To lose ground when a veteran with name recognition is no longer in the running, and you have a new face that the only time you hear is name is usually shady campaign ads is not the most characteristic of how a midterm election will pan out. Democrats are banking on the hate of Trump to fuel a resurgence. Unfortunately, democrats lacked the enthusiasm to come out vote when they had the chance to stop him from get him elected. They will undoubtedly lack the enthusiasm to come out and vote when he isn't even on the table.

My guess is GOP will lose seats, but will not be the meltdown I have seen some predict.
 
pounder said:
Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
Click to expand...


We can swap out personalities and parties (if you're one of those that believes you have two) forever, won't change a thing, the system serves the donor class alone.
 
Fenton Lum said:
We can swap out personalities and parties (if you're one of those that believes you have two) forever, won't change a thing, the system serves the donor class alone.
Click to expand...

Duh... you can't have a system that doesn't serve the "Donor" class. And if you think you can make a state that doesn't, you would be naive. Because competence and success of the human condition follows the Poisson Distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution... inevitably... it is a fundamental law that cannot be changed. To curb the Poisson Distribution you have to restrict power by something like a strong, almost unchangeable Constitution with clear limitations and boundaries of powers and rights given to every individual. Otherwise you let society and government as a whole be given up to the Poisson Distribution even MORE!
 
pounder said:
Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
Click to expand...

You "feel," do you?
 
pounder said:
Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
Click to expand...

While I don't think special elections are as predictive as a lot of people think, and I definitely don't think Democrats will come close to taking 20% of the Republicans margins, I do think some Republican takes have been overconfident.

For one thing, the results so far are certainly not anything close to proof that the Democrats won't do well in the midterms since they have been almost the mirror image of the specials held in 2009.
 
Renae said:
The spin is real with you.
Click to expand...

Well, if you even just take a glance at the numbers, the GOP won the special election in GA by just 4 points. On November, it was 20 points. There's a bit of a downward trend there.
 
ModerateRN said:
A lot can change before the midterms. Unfortunately moral victories are just something the only losing side talks about.

Special elections, more often than not, replace a veteran lawmaker with a new face. To lose ground when a veteran with name recognition is no longer in the running, and you have a new face that the only time you hear is name is usually shady campaign ads is not the most characteristic of how a midterm election will pan out. Democrats are banking on the hate of Trump to fuel a resurgence. Unfortunately, democrats lacked the enthusiasm to come out vote when they had the chance to stop him from get him elected. They will undoubtedly lack the enthusiasm to come out and vote when he isn't even on the table.

My guess is GOP will lose seats, but will not be the meltdown I have seen some predict.
Click to expand...



Absolutely wrong.

Anyone planning to run an election BETTER pay a great deal of attention to figures like that. I suggest YOU don't want to talk about them because the topic frightens you. Imagine a stubborn, self centered prick like Trump in the White House having to deal with a minority situation in any situation.

I hate to tell you this, but the sitting president rarely keeps his majority past the first off year elections.

But then Trump has the Russians to help him
 
rocket88 said:
Well, if you even just take a glance at the numbers, the GOP won the special election in GA by just 4 points. On November, it was 20 points. There's a bit of a downward trend there.
Click to expand...

In a bubble that would matter.
Reality check, it was a highly touted race with lots of money and media attention. In that 20% race, was the time, effort and money as equally spent? No, of course not.
 
Fearandloathing said:
Absolutely wrong.

Anyone planning to run an election BETTER pay a great deal of attention to figures like that. I suggest YOU don't want to talk about them because the topic frightens you. Imagine a stubborn, self centered prick like Trump in the White House having to deal with a minority situation in any situation.

I hate to tell you this, but the sitting president rarely keeps his majority past the first off year elections.

But then Trump has the Russians to help him
Click to expand...

However he stands almost no chance of the GOP losing control of the Senate and very little chance of the GOP losing control of the House. The dems would have to win heavily in red state House races, mostly against well established incumbents. Unfortunately for the dems, they are now 0 and 5 in special elections where they attempted to defeat newcomers running for seats held by incumbents who joined Trumps cabinet.
 
rocket88 said:
Well, if you even just take a glance at the numbers, the GOP won the special election in GA by just 4 points. On November, it was 20 points. There's a bit of a downward trend there.
Click to expand...

You can't make a trend from 2 data points and the circumstances from special elections are so different that they aren't useful in predicting trends
 
pounder said:
Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
Click to expand...

Lol, good one! :lamo
 
rocket88 said:
Well, if you even just take a glance at the numbers, the GOP won the special election in GA by just 4 points. On November, it was 20 points. There's a bit of a downward trend there.
Click to expand...

Since we're spin doctoring. Trump only won Georgia 6th by 2 percentage points, so it looks like we're trending upwards. ;)
 
Fearandloathing said:
Absolutely wrong.

Anyone planning to run an election BETTER pay a great deal of attention to figures like that. I suggest YOU don't want to talk about them because the topic frightens you. Imagine a stubborn, self centered prick like Trump in the White House having to deal with a minority situation in any situation.

I hate to tell you this, but the sitting president rarely keeps his majority past the first off year elections.

But then Trump has the Russians to help him
Click to expand...

I don't care which side controls congress because I feel they are both incapable of doing anything worthwhile, but it does cause me a twinge of fear If liberals do gain control of congress because our government will cease to function. Trump is childish enough to block any and everything they pass no matter the bill.
 
Me thinks y'all protest too loudly. The data is what the data is.
 
When all else fails, keep pedaling, dude.



pounder said:
Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
Click to expand...
 
pounder said:
Republican house elections continue a downward trend

Kansas 4th GOP winner down 30 points from his successor
Montana at large down 10 points from his successor
Georgia 6th down 19 points from her successor
South Carolina 5th down 20 points from his successor

This is an average of 20 points of the winning margin lost.

No doubt cabinet positions were selected on the probability of the GOP losing no seats during the specials and they did not lose a single seat. However if the 20 point loss of margin continues it will be bloody in the midterms.

Feeling like a 24 seat GOP loss is possible although I have no probabilities to publish.. just a guess.
Click to expand...

My colleagues like this graphic

chat-dem-blame-0621-1.jpg

Here is some level headed discussion on the subject at Nate Silver's hangout

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lets-play-the-democratic-blame-game/
 
pounder said:
My colleagues like this graphic

View attachment 67219054

Here is some level headed discussion on the subject at Nate Silver's hangout

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lets-play-the-democratic-blame-game/
Click to expand...

I ruthfully do not think the democrats are going to win much of anything in 2018, my prediction is they keep up the blaming everyone else and offer no strategy then, and republicans pretty much come out ahead, then in 2020 trump wins re election and democrats make massive gains in the house and senate, either through party hate against the reigning party or from the democrats actually running on a platform again.
 
Crovax said:
You can't make a trend from 2 data points and the circumstances from special elections are so different that they aren't useful in predicting trends
Click to expand...

You can't make a trend, but it was foolish to suggest that Democrats could win this one. That they came as close as it was doesn't necessarily bode well for the Republicans.
 
rocket88 said:
You can't make a trend, but it was foolish to suggest that Democrats could win this one. That they came as close as it was doesn't necessarily bode well for the Republicans.
Click to expand...

What is foolish, would be to use the special elections to infer anything either way about the midterm elections
 
Crovax said:
What is foolish, would be to use the special elections to infer anything either way about the midterm elections
Click to expand...

DEMs barely won 4 midterms in 2009 that they were supposed to win easily. How'd that work out for them? Problem with DEMs is they won't play GOP sleaze ball .
 
Crovax said:
What is foolish, would be to use the special elections to infer anything either way about the midterm elections
Click to expand...

Midterms are often unkind to The party in charge. Personally, given the lack of any legislation coming out of our legislative body, I say get rid of them all.
 
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