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D has 7-point Lead in Georgia Special Election

calamity

calamity

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We all know polls can be wrong, especially when Russians are afoot with their hacking skills. But, this one is probably under their radar.

Poll: Jon Ossoff leads Karen Handel in Georgia race - CNNPolitics.com

Trump effect in action.


Dems would be foolish to push ousting him before the Midterms. But, ratcheting up the pressure sure makes sense. :)
 
calamity said:
We all know polls can be wrong, especially when Russians are afoot with their hacking skills. But, this one is probably under their radar.

Poll: Jon Ossoff leads Karen Handel in Georgia race - CNNPolitics.com

Trump effect in action.


Dems would be foolish to push ousting him before the Midterms. But, ratcheting up the pressure sure makes sense. :)
Click to expand...


The key: "We all know polls can be wrong."

Ask Hillary about the polls. She had to cancel the big fireworks show because of the "polls". :)
 
Common Sense 1 said:
The key: "We all know polls can be wrong."

Ask Hillary about the polls. She had to cancel the big fireworks show because of the "polls". :)
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Actually the polls were right on the money. Public opinion polls measure public opinion. The average of the top mainstream polls had her ahead in the measurement of popular support for her and they correctly predicted the order of finish and were within 1.1 points of Clintons popular vote total.
 
Funny how when the repubs lose one its a referendum on trump but the ones they won was not touted as a confirmation of him

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trouble13 said:
Funny how when the repubs lose one its a referendum on trump but the ones they won was not touted as a confirmation of him

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Plus a lot of people believe Georgia is solidly red, it's not.
Given that Georgia's 6th district is largely urban/close suburban and compromises north west Cobb and mid-north Fulton(aka, Atlanta/metro Atlanta), it's not that surprising that a Dem could win it.
 
calamity said:
We all know polls can be wrong, especially when Russians are afoot with their hacking skills. But, this one is probably under their radar.

Poll: Jon Ossoff leads Karen Handel in Georgia race - CNNPolitics.com

Trump effect in action.


Dems would be foolish to push ousting him before the Midterms. But, ratcheting up the pressure sure makes sense. :)
Click to expand...

He's not going to be outed. Y'all will have to run against him in just about 4 years. So you won't need to worry about that I guess.
 
calamity said:
We all know polls can be wrong, especially when Russians are afoot with their hacking skills. But, this one is probably under their radar.

Poll: Jon Ossoff leads Karen Handel in Georgia race - CNNPolitics.com

Trump effect in action.


Dems would be foolish to push ousting him before the Midterms. But, ratcheting up the pressure sure makes sense. :)
Click to expand...

The only proven hacking/interference/election fraud in 2016 was from the DNC to help Hillary in both the Primaries and the General.

There is more evidence of Bigfoot than that Trump colluded with Russia.

There is an equal amount of evidence that Darth Vader used the force to hack DNC servers as that the Russians did it.

Why would Putin want Trump as President when he already owned the Clintons? (20% of US uranium production).
 
calamity said:
We all know polls can be wrong, especially when Russians are afoot with their hacking skills. But, this one is probably under their radar.

Poll: Jon Ossoff leads Karen Handel in Georgia race - CNNPolitics.com

Trump effect in action.


Dems would be foolish to push ousting him before the Midterms. But, ratcheting up the pressure sure makes sense. :)
Click to expand...

My suspicion is that it is more the never ending drumbeat of missleading, false and fabricated by the media, than anything Trump actually did.
It is that unthinking drumbeat that is causing us so much damage overseas as well, where media and politicians gladly pick the muck up to obfuscate their own double dealing and insufficiencies.
 
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Harry Guerrilla said:
Plus a lot of people believe Georgia is solidly red, it's not.
Given that Georgia's 6th district is largely urban/close suburban and compromises north west Cobb and mid-north Fulton(aka, Atlanta/metro Atlanta), it's not that surprising that a Dem could win it.
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lol...Republicans have been winning the district with over 60% of the vote since 2012. So, seeing it go 51 - 44 now is truly a swing. And, it is probably the Trump Effect.

If you want to spin, spin. But, that is all that it is. Spin.

https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia's_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2016
 
joG said:
My suspicion is that it is more the never ending drumbeat of missleading, false and fabricated by the media, than anything Trump actually did.
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Sounds more like a misguided belief than suspicion to me.
 
calamity said:
lol...Republicans have been winning the district with over 60% of the vote since 2012. So, seeing it go 51 - 44 now is truly a swing. And, it is probably the Trump Effect.

If you want to spin, spin. But, that is all that it is. Spin.

https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia's_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2016
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Dude I grew up near there.
That area is were the "White privilege slam peotry" thing came from.

North Fulton and north Cobb is the wealthy urban wasteland, chock full of progressive millennials.
Ossoff is an Obama like candidate, charismatic and he's run a positive campaign.

Karen Handle is and has done none of those things.
 
calamity said:
Sounds more like a misguided belief than suspicion to me.
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Admittedly, I cannot judge the situation in Georgia and had used, what I am seeing happen here in Europe, where it is very visibly, what is happening.
 
haymarket said:
Actually the polls were right on the money. Public opinion polls measure public opinion. The average of the top mainstream polls had her ahead in the measurement of popular support for her and they correctly predicted the order of finish and were within 1.1 points of Clintons popular vote total.
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Some polls were right on the money, CNN was not one of them. In the weeks before the election they had Hillary with 300+ electoral votes and leading by 12 points in the popular vote. Presidential poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 12 - CNNPolitics.com

No poll had Hillarys so called popular vote lead concentrated entirely in California.

The only useful information from Jill Stein's recount was that Democrats were stuffing the ballot boxes in their strongholds areas. Which would explain a popular vote lead with no ability to get the electoral votes.
 
Casca XV said:
Some polls were right on the money, CNN was not one of them. In the weeks before the election they had Hillary with 300+ electoral votes and leading by 12 points in the popular vote. Presidential poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 12 - CNNPolitics.com

No poll had Hillarys so called popular vote lead concentrated entirely in California.

The only useful information from Jill Stein's recount was that Democrats were stuffing the ballot boxes in their strongholds areas. Which would explain a popular vote lead with no ability to get the electoral votes.
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The average of the top polls not only correctly predicted the finish of the top two was within 1.1 point dead on the money.
 
haymarket said:
The average of the top polls not only correctly predicted the finish of the top two was within 1.1 point dead on the money.
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But that is not what is cited in this thread. It's CNN, and they were one of the worst. Also the specific polls giving Trump the lowest approval ratings were the ones who got it wrong the most.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
Ossoff is young and charismatic, Karen Handle is not, end story.
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The million ****ing adds from Ossoff I have sen the last month are alot better tone and contentwise than the million ****ing adds I have seen from Handle. Ossoff's add about government waste is actually really well done, makes him come off really well. And yeah, he does have some real charisma. One of the (many) reasons Clinton lost in November was that Trump always included his go to message, "make America great again". While vague and kinda stupid, that is a positive message. Clinton focused almost exclusively on "Trump is a mouthbreathing moron", with no positive message. People prefer and are more swayed when politicians say what they are going to do. Negative adds have their place, but you need more. I have not seen anything from Handle which suggests she learned that lesson.

Edit: for those not being inundated by these ****ing adds, here is the one I am referring to. Give me more adds like this please:

 
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Redress said:
The million ****ing adds from Ossoff I have sen the last month are alot better tone and contentwise than the million ****ing adds I have seen from Handle. Ossoff's add about government waste is actually really well done, makes him come off really well. And yeah, he does have some real charisma. One of the (many) reasons Clinton lost in November was that Trump always included his go to message, "make America great again". While vague and kinda stupid, that is a positive message. Clinton focused almost exclusively on "Trump is a mouthbreathing moron", with no positive message. People prefer and are more swayed when politicians say what they are going to do. Negative adds have their place, but you need more. I have not seen anything from Handle which suggests she learned that lesson.

Edit: for those not being inundated by these ****ing adds, here is the one I am referring to. Give me more adds like this please:

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Handle has never served as anything in my neck of the woods, but I've got the impression that she's a poser, just in it for cash and vanity.

While I greatly dislike political ads of all stripes, Ossoff's are better done, largely with positivity and Handle's are old, out of touch and negative.
I still think he has an advantage in the area though.

I know it fairly well, spent most of my childhood/some adult years close to there.
North Cobb and Fulton are $$$$ areas.
 
Casca XV said:
But that is not what is cited in this thread. It's CNN, and they were one of the worst. Also the specific polls giving Trump the lowest approval ratings were the ones who got it wrong the most.
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Which is why I provided a larger perspective.
 
Casca XV said:
But that is not what is cited in this thread. It's CNN, and they were one of the worst. Also the specific polls giving Trump the lowest approval ratings were the ones who got it wrong the most.
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This thread is about an Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll. Not a CNN poll. Your link in your previous post is also not about a CNN poll, but about an ABC/Washington Post tracking poll which swung wildly from Clinton+12 to Trump+3 in the final three weeks, before finally landing on Clinton+3 at the end.

Those are just CNN articles about polls that are not sponsored by them.
 
haymarket said:
Which is why I provided a larger perspective.
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No, what you are doing is embracing the message from discredited sources like CNN. When its pointed out their extreme inaccurate polls you defend them by lumping them in with more accurate pollsters. That is called Dishonest Propaganda, stop doing it.
 
Casca XV said:
No, what you are doing is embracing the message from discredited sources like CNN. When its pointed out their extreme inaccurate polls you defend them by lumping them in with more accurate pollsters. That is called Dishonest Propaganda, stop doing it.
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You were told ten hours ago, by a mod no less, that this thread is about an AJC poll, not a CNN poll. Yet you persist in bringing up CNN polls. Take your own advice and stop doing it .
 
Anagram said:
This thread is about an Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll. Not a CNN poll. Your link in your previous post is also not about a CNN poll, but about an ABC/Washington Post tracking poll which swung wildly from Clinton+12 to Trump+3 in the final three weeks, before finally landing on Clinton+3 at the end.

Those are just CNN articles about polls that are not sponsored by them.
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Trump won Georgia by 5% but the Atlanta Journal Constitution said Hillary would win by 4% in the days before the election.
 
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