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Maybe His Base is Crumbling?

Mycroft said:
Another badly sampled poll.

REGISTERED VOTERS

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Republican 23%
Democrat 35
Independent 36
Other/DK/NA 7

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling//us/us06072017_demos_Upmf47rg.pdf

Republican undersampled, Democrats grossly oversampled, Independents low, but close.

For reference, here is Gallup's Party Affiliation breakdown as of May 3-7:

Republicans - 29%
Democrats - 28%
Independents - 40%

Party Affiliation | Gallup Historical Trends

sigh...can't these pollsters be honest?
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I would suppose that each of the polls is sampled similarly over time
 
katzgar said:
I would suppose that each of the polls is sampled similarly over time
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Maybe...but that just means the poll results are bogus (over time)
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
I suppose the polls were conducted in areas with more democrats or more democrats responded to requests to participate in the poll.
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Then it's a useless poll since it is intended to show what "all" Americans think.
 
Perotista said:
I don't think it is Trump's base that is crumbling. I doubt that will ever happen. All one has to do is look back at Richard Nixon. Even on the day he resigned from office, 25% of the nation still had a favorable view of him which included 50% of all Republicans. Nixon retained his base of support, the die hard Nixon supporters.

I think it is mostly among independents that support for Trump is eroding. Not his base. Back at the end of January 46% of independents approved of him, just 28% disapproved and 26% were on the fence, don't know, not sure, undecided. Your poll, YouGov and others show an average of independents or the non-affiliated voter show an average of 37% approve, down from 46. 52% disapprove, up from 26% as more of the non-affiliated comes off the fence. 11% still aren't sure, don't know etc.

Your poll shows 81% of Republicans approve of him, YouGov 82%, that's about as close as one can get. Back at the end of January, 85% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably. Considering that around 15% of the GOP was never-Trumpers, that is never Trump except against Hillary Clinton, that isn't much of a drop and is probably within the margin of error of the polls. That is pretty steady.

On the other hand, 85% of all Democrats disapproved or had an unfavorable view of Trump at the end of January. That is up to 95% in your poll, YouGov lists Democratic disapproval at 89%. Only a very Democrats have jumped on the disapproval band wagon, a few Republicans have departed the Trump Train. But once again those who departed fall within the margin of error of the polls.

One can attest that when it comes to Republicans and Democrats, their views are about as partisan and polarized as it gets. Not much change from either party. No base is crumbling. It is the non-affiliated, those who held their nose and voted for the lesser of two evils that are changing their views and coming down against Trump. Especially those who were sitting on the fence last January.

Perhaps the question is, what percentage of the electorate is Trump's base of support. When looking at the exit polls from November, half of those who voted for Trump were anti-Clinton voters. Not necessarily pro-Trump voters, any Tom, Dick or Harry would have done as long as their last name wasn't Clinton. Half of Trump's 46% of the vote is 23%. Now 34% of the total electorate had a favorable view of Trump last November. So I would say Trump's base of support is between 23% and 34% of the total electorate. That support Trump will never lose, just like Richard Nixon never lost his avid supporters either.
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National polls mean as much to me as the national popular vote, zero. Statewide polls, which are now up for the last 2 months, tell us so much more as to the way the electoral college is leaning. I continue to be wary of statewide polls based on trump supporters being under polled.

If you go back and look at statewide polls just before the election, you'll see outfits like Trafalgar spot on in the swing states. Swing state polling (electoral college) did not miss this election, national polling (popular vote) did.

So I typed in 'trump approval Texas' and the top hit was Texas Lyceum. Gov. Abbott was 53-31 and trump was 42-54 published 4/19 covering 4/3 to 4/9. This can be done with every one of the so-called swing states or all the states.

Polls are out for AZ, MI, PA, OH, WI, NC, IA and other trump states. I haven't checked yet, but I'm sure they're out there for swing Clinton states like MN, CO, NV, NH, VA; even OR and WA. State and CD polls are where it's at for me. Requires lots of searching; good to get away from all of the same old same old on DP.

In Georgia, it's hard to get a statewide poll with CD-6 consuming all the oxygen. Most of these statewide polls drop down to governors and senators at least; Cruz and O'Rourke were tied at 30 with 37% undecided. Flake and Heller have to make tough votes where the GOP right is after them, along with the general DEMs .
 
katzgar said:
the only educated decision was to stay home and get drunk. The moron has the senate at a standstill dealing with his stupidity, I suppose that makes the dems happy.
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McConnell is quickly passing their version of trumpcare while Democrats at every conceivable national level are consumed with trump and Comey and Flynn and the rest .
 
katzgar said:
the only educated decision was to stay home and get drunk. The moron has the senate at a standstill dealing with his stupidity, I suppose that makes the dems happy.
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While I agree.... lesser of 2 Evils were the Party heads..


"The Moron" has the senate..... why? Why is he a moron, What moronic thing has he done as a politician, in regards to his policies?
 
Mycroft said:
Oh...trends based on faulty data...are valid.

Okay.
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when you use the same methodology again and again the the margin of error is the same and the trend over time is good. come on man this is polling 101
 
Exactice said:
While I agree.... lesser of 2 Evils were the Party heads..


"The Moron" has the senate..... why? Why is he a moron, What moronic thing has he done as a politician, in regards to his policies?
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you need to watch the news.
 
katzgar said:
you need to watch the news.
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Love when I can ask simple questions..... like why? As people feel they can escalate or use derogatory remarks about someone, yet fail to site...one point as to why the feel the way the do... I spent a good portion typing why....all you can say is watch the news....


News instigates HALF of the crap thats going on..... Unless you do your OWN fact finding...you are just a sheep.... so you can keep watching the news, You can keep absorbing what they want to report...unfortunately that does not justice to your Fellow Americans....

I do care about "You" and many others whether they disagree with me or not...They are American Citizens, If trump will do what it takes to protect you and protect your rights. Im for it.... Thats it.
 
Crovax said:
I'm guessing that you don't speak sarcasm
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It's really hard to know what's sarcasm and what's not anymore in this new age we are in. There was a time not too long ago that the idea of a former reality TV star, beauty pageant sponsor, two time divorcee, and real estate swindler becoming leader of the free world would have been considered biting sarcasm.
 
NIMBY said:
National polls mean as much to me as the national popular vote, zero. Statewide polls, which are now up for the last 2 months, tell us so much more as to the way the electoral college is leaning. I continue to be wary of statewide polls based on trump supporters being under polled.

If you go back and look at statewide polls just before the election, you'll see outfits like Trafalgar spot on in the swing states. Swing state polling (electoral college) did not miss this election, national polling (popular vote) did.

So I typed in 'trump approval Texas' and the top hit was Texas Lyceum. Gov. Abbott was 53-31 and trump was 42-54 published 4/19 covering 4/3 to 4/9. This can be done with every one of the so-called swing states or all the states.

Polls are out for AZ, MI, PA, OH, WI, NC, IA and other trump states. I haven't checked yet, but I'm sure they're out there for swing Clinton states like MN, CO, NV, NH, VA; even OR and WA. State and CD polls are where it's at for me. Requires lots of searching; good to get away from all of the same old same old on DP.

In Georgia, it's hard to get a statewide poll with CD-6 consuming all the oxygen. Most of these statewide polls drop down to governors and senators at least; Cruz and O'Rourke were tied at 30 with 37% undecided. Flake and Heller have to make tough votes where the GOP right is after them, along with the general DEMs .
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I would say the RCP averages had the popular vote pretty much right on. RCP had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3 points, she did by two. Throw in the margin of error, you can't get it any closer.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Yep, Trafalgar pretty much hit the swing states on the head. I find it very annoying when Trump supporters tell me how wrong the polls were. They were pretty much correct. The pundits and media got it wrong, but the polls showed pretty much exactly what happened. Trafalgar took their poll in Pennsylvania 3-5 November, that was Pennsylvania's final poll and they had Trump up by one. In Michigan Trafalgar conducted their poll on the 6 November, again the last and final poll taken in Michigan and they had Trump up by 2. With a margin of error of 2.8 points, they were right on.

CD-6 down here is within the margin of error.

WSB poll: Ossoff and Handel locked in a Georgia 6th nail-biter | Political Insider blog

What bothers me about it is that over 35 million dollars has been spent on this runoff making it the most expensive congressional race ever. 21 million by the Democrats, 14 million by the Republicans and counting. The voters, people of the 5th district have become nothing more than pawns to the big money interests. What I want to see is a simple law, if you can't vote for him or the office, you can't donate. Almost all that money is from out of state.
 
Perotista said:
I would say the RCP averages had the popular vote pretty much right on. RCP had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3 points, she did by two. Throw in the margin of error, you can't get it any closer.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Yep, Trafalgar pretty much hit the swing states on the head. I find it very annoying when Trump supporters tell me how wrong the polls were. They were pretty much correct. The pundits and media got it wrong, but the polls showed pretty much exactly what happened. Trafalgar took their poll in Pennsylvania 3-5 November, that was Pennsylvania's final poll and they had Trump up by one. In Michigan Trafalgar conducted their poll on the 6 November, again the last and final poll taken in Michigan and they had Trump up by 2. With a margin of error of 2.8 points, they were right on.

CD-6 down here is within the margin of error.

WSB poll: Ossoff and Handel locked in a Georgia 6th nail-biter | Political Insider blog

What bothers me about it is that over 35 million dollars has been spent on this runoff making it the most expensive congressional race ever. 21 million by the Democrats, 14 million by the Republicans and counting. The voters, people of the 5th district have become nothing more than pawns to the big money interests. What I want to see is a simple law, if you can't vote for him or the office, you can't donate. Almost all that money is from out of state.
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You and I will have Citizens United for the rest of our lives. All Ryan has to do is go in to KS, MT, GA and SC with dark money millions that are not transparent and not counted yet. Small contributions from me are transparent. So far, DEM money people are holding back on donations and the national DEMs don't have the money to run nationwide ads that GOPs are running, such as against Comey.

Another good state poll is out now from MN, where HRC barely won. MN is 40-51 overall with trump supporters still holding strong. MN-2 and 3 for GOPs and MN-1, 7 and 8 for DEMs are at risk. 5 of 8 is unusual in the house. Key house states for DEMs are CA, FL, IA, IL, MI, NC, NJ, PA and TX. WA for both parties--4 total out of 10.

GOPs are also after CDs in CA, FL, IL, OR, NV, NH and CT. We're going to see a lot more seats at all levels both ways next year. Even UT-3 this NOV. will be close. Ryan won't run out of money. DEMs spend too much too late, as we saw with 2014 senate elections. For the GOP senate, my picks are still NV, AZ, TX and NE.

Candidates for next year's federal races and big state races are here: 2018 General Election Their front page is: The Green Papers: United States Off Year Election 2017 and it details new candidates and election results daily during the week.

Daily KOS may be left-wing but they're awesome for data mining and detailed analysis. I'm just starting to use ballotpedia. Cook has a great page called 'resources' under 'about' .
 
calamity said:
I'm seeing it at work, a hotbed for Trump love. No one has yet come out yet and said, "**** Trump. He has to go." But all the loud "Trump is Great!" peeps have suddenly gotten very quiet.
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It's not like the RNC to screw up and run anti-Comey smear ads during the day tomorrow.

I doubt if the all important Indy and 3rd party voters will see this as a sign of innocence.

The RNC obviously has too much dirty laundry to spend .
 
NIMBY said:
You and I will have Citizens United for the rest of our lives. All Ryan has to do is go in to KS, MT, GA and SC with dark money millions that are not transparent and not counted yet. Small contributions from me are transparent. So far, DEM money people are holding back on donations and the national DEMs don't have the money to run nationwide ads that GOPs are running, such as against Comey.

Another good state poll is out now from MN, where HRC barely won. MN is 40-51 overall with trump supporters still holding strong. MN-2 and 3 for GOPs and MN-1, 7 and 8 for DEMs are at risk. 5 of 8 is unusual in the house. Key house states for DEMs are CA, FL, IA, IL, MI, NC, NJ, PA and TX. WA for both parties--4 total out of 10.

GOPs are also after CDs in CA, FL, IL, OR, NV, NH and CT. We're going to see a lot more seats at all levels both ways next year. Even UT-3 this NOV. will be close. Ryan won't run out of money. DEMs spend too much too late, as we saw with 2014 senate elections. For the GOP senate, my picks are still NV, AZ, TX and NE.

Candidates for next year's federal races and big state races are here: 2018 General Election Their front page is: The Green Papers: United States Off Year Election 2017 and it details new candidates and election results daily during the week.

Daily KOS may be left-wing but they're awesome for data mining and detailed analysis. I'm just starting to use ballotpedia. Cook has a great page called 'resources' under 'about' .
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I really don't understand all this money going into one CD. It's not like whomever won this thing would tip the balance in the House one way or the other. Atlanta TV stations are making a mint out of this race. Best thing that ever happened to them. There has to be a limit on the amount spent and the return. Here's the break down from last years Presidential election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/campaign-finance/

Here's what I found most interesting, not the fact Clinton had 1.4 billion to Trump's 957.6 Million.

SMALL MONEY DONORS
Clinton’s campaign received 16 percent of its money in donations of $200 or less. Trump’s campaign received 26 percent of its funds from small donations. In the 2012 election cycle, President Obama had raised 32 percent of his total in small donations and Republican Mitt Romney had raised 5 percent.

Nothing is going to change. Big money rules politics and government as well. Here's the article on the money in the 6th CD.

Democrats are outspending Republicans in Georgia 6th race | Political Insider blog

Although it is way to early, I was looking through the house races. I would say at this time the Republicans have 25 seats at risk to the Democrats 10. But last year it was about the same, the Republicans having many more seats at risk than the Democrats. Yet they lost but six. I chalk that up to the old saying that everyone loves their own congressman, but hates the other 434. Something to that effect. I do expect more Republican seat will be at risk as time goes by. But I wouldn't underestimate the power of incumbency. Yet Trump may be the key factor in determining how many seats the GOP loses next year.

I don't really see the Republicans picking up many seats next year either despite the numbers. Missouri and Indiana are the GOP best chances. But even if the GOP wins those states, they very well could lose Arizona and Nevada. Probably will. It all depends on Trump.
 
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