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Dems inch closer to House takeover with Miami Republican's retirement

poweRob

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Good news for next year. Of course Trump may turn it all around and grow YUGE coat tails for republicans to ride to victory on instead of being the boat anchor tied to their necks that he is right now.

Dems inch closer to House takeover with Miami Republican's retirement

Democrats could hardly contain their joy at the unexpected retirement announcement by Florida Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen on Sunday, and even Republicans had to admit it will be hard for them to hold that Miami-area seat in 2018.

Ros-Lehtinen, a moderate Republican, has cut a particularly independent profile as the rest of her party raced to the right. Her heavily Democratic district backed Hillary Clinton by 20 percentage points in November, and Republicans who know the district well questioned whether another GOP candidate could thread that needle.​
 
When they need a mile an inch ain't much.
 
Ros-Lehtinen's retirement is definitely a surprise.

Edit: Dems would need to pick up 24 seats to have a +1 majority in the House.

Likewise Cooke has that following ratings: Solid Seats: 205 Rep, 173 Dem

AKA, the Dems would need a huge swing in their favor.
 
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Good news for next year. Of course Trump may turn it all around and grow YUGE coat tails for republicans to ride to victory on instead of being the boat anchor tied to their necks that he is right now.

Dems inch closer to House takeover with Miami Republican's retirement

Democrats could hardly contain their joy at the unexpected retirement announcement by Florida Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen on Sunday, and even Republicans had to admit it will be hard for them to hold that Miami-area seat in 2018.

Ros-Lehtinen, a moderate Republican, has cut a particularly independent profile as the rest of her party raced to the right. Her heavily Democratic district backed Hillary Clinton by 20 percentage points in November, and Republicans who know the district well questioned whether another GOP candidate could thread that needle.​
Oh comon, I support many liberal causes and would definitely prefer a Dem House to a GOP one - but this is one helluva' optimistic statement! :doh
 
Ros-Lehtinen's retirement is definitely a surprise.

Edit: Dems would need to pick up 24 seats to have a +1 majority in the House.

Likewise Cooke has that following ratings: Solid Seats: 205 Rep, 173 Dem

AKA, the Dems would need a huge swing in their favor.

The midterms never favor the party in power.
 
Ros-Lehtinen's retirement is definitely a surprise.

Edit: Dems would need to pick up 24 seats to have a +1 majority in the House.

Likewise Cooke has that following ratings: Solid Seats: 205 Rep, 173 Dem

AKA, the Dems would need a huge swing in their favor.

I don't foresee the Dems taking over the house in 2018. I see them getting closer perhaps.
 
Oh comon, I support many liberal causes and would definitely prefer a Dem House to a GOP one - but this is one helluva' optimistic statement! :doh

There are 7 GOP house members from California alone whose CD was won by Clinton. Obama only won 2 of them, so they're becoming more blue, as indicated by all GOP winning numbers falling from 2012 to 2016.

While there are 23 of these Clinton CDs, there are 36 more they've targeted, and that doesn't include CDs like GA-6. Otoh, trump won 12 CDs represented by DEMs, and GOPs have marked 24 others.

This is all an outgrowth of the brilliant data mining done by GOPs in 2010 called REDMAP.

One more thing; in the 7 California CDs, 6 of them already have at least one DEM candidate in their overall jungle primary which pretty much guarantees a top two in the general and no uncontested races, though both could be of the same party .
 
I don't foresee the Dems taking over the house in 2018. I see them getting closer perhaps.

trump won the following seats held by DEMs: NV-3, AZ-1, IA-2, MN-1, MN-7, MN-8, WI-3, IL-17, PA-17, NJ-5, NY-18 and NH-1.

Populist MN is huge to defend in 2018, where Clinton only won the state by 44,000 and there is split state government .
 
If trump proves to be as unpopular as I hope, I expect a few hard line conservatives to lose their seats

Another on line source has 22 no votes on trumpcare. That's all they can lose. The latest one to drop had trump win his CD by 40 points.

It's a lose-lose either way for GOPs, as their constituents tell them how many of their voters will lose insurance.

Americans now understand GOPs are trying to fund their tax cuts for the rich by taking one trillion from ACA. They also now know that trump doesn't know jack or **** about policy.

Time for national DEMs to fight back against trump campaign ads with their own .
 
There are 7 GOP house members from California alone whose CD was won by Clinton. Obama only won 2 of them, so they're becoming more blue, as indicated by all GOP winning numbers falling from 2012 to 2016.

While there are 23 of these Clinton CDs, there are 36 more they've targeted, and that doesn't include CDs like GA-6. Otoh, trump won 12 CDs represented by DEMs, and GOPs have marked 24 others.

This is all an outgrowth of the brilliant data mining done by GOPs in 2010 called REDMAP.

One more thing; in the 7 California CDs, 6 of them already have at least one DEM candidate in their overall jungle primary which pretty much guarantees a top two in the general and no uncontested races, though both could be of the same party .
I saw Chris Jankowski around a year ago on the Rachel Maddows Show. I had already heard all this, but it still was interesting seeing him on the show.

Have you read read David Daley's RatF**ked?

Amazon: RatF**ked

Supposedly it's a great read about this all, despite the unfortunate title. I've got a copy in my reading pile, near the top.

Here's a recent enough Salon interview with Daley:

Salon: This is how the GOP rigged Congress: The secret plan that handcuffed Obama’s presidency, but backfired in Donald Trump
 
Another on line source has 22 no votes on trumpcare. That's all they can lose. The latest one to drop had trump win his CD by 40 points.

It's a lose-lose either way for GOPs, as their constituents tell them how many of their voters will lose insurance.

Americans now understand GOPs are trying to fund their tax cuts for the rich by taking one trillion from ACA. They also now know that trump doesn't know jack or **** about policy.

Time for national DEMs to fight back against trump campaign ads with their own .
One of the worst problems with Trump is he stands for nothing but himself and his narcissistic and egomaniac drive. Plus he seems naive and stupid in terms of policy. I've heard better policy from DP members right here!

This means he is going to be used and bent by the GOP. He started his campaign as pretty moderate, Democratic Party-like even. Then within months the GOP Trump crowd and Bannon and his crowd pulled him further and further right, or actually alt-right in many instances.

So we get the worst of both: Incompetent meglomaniac, and easily influenced by the GOP! Argh!
 
I saw Chris Jankowski around a year ago on the Rachel Maddows Show. I had already heard all this, but it still was interesting seeing him on the show.

Have you read read David Daley's RatF**ked?

Amazon: RatF**ked

Supposedly it's a great read about this all, despite the unfortunate title. I've got a copy in my reading pile, near the top.

Here's a recent enough Salon interview with Daley:

Salon: This is how the GOP rigged Congress: The secret plan that handcuffed Obama’s presidency, but backfired in Donald Trump

You can be sure GOPs will have new trickie dickies for 2018, as we're seeing already with trump campaign rallies and ADS.

Here's one tiny way to fight back tomorrow. DEMs have 3 very good candidates in the SC-5 party jungle primary, runoff in 2 weeks if no one gets a majority; 3 other candidates with good credentials didn't run; that leaves 5 potential DEM candidates for state house/senate seats in 2018.

Hopefully national DEMs keep their eyes on the prize, 2018, not 2020 .
 
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