The Hard Truth About Lost Jobs: It's Not About Immigration

Cigar · Mar 6, 2017

Few topics spike the ire of American voters like jobs, immigration, and trade, no doubt because the three are inexorably tied together, at least in the rhetoric of politicians who point to immigration and trade as the villains of the American jobs story.

his narrative was clearly in evidence during the presidential campaign, as candidates in nearly every race made admirable pledges to “bring back jobs” through any number of means: reducing immigration by building a wall on our “southern border”, tearing up trade deals, punishing companies that relocate jobs outside of the US, and/or rounding up and deporting undocumented workers. That political rhetoric has spilled into the post-election zeitgeist in the comment sections of online media, like our Immigration, We Simply Cannot Afford This post that examined the economic contribution of legal immigration over the last half century. The comments section was a river of outrage over illegal immigration and trade, even though neither topic was the focus of the piece. Still, the post hit a cord and has reached over 500,000 views.

It’s no wonder. Jobs -- the lack of them, generally, and the lack of good-paying ones, particularly -- is a hot button for many Americans who are suffering from stagnant wages or worse, up-ended careers. While immigrants and trade may be convenient whipping boys (why else would politicians lite on them so readily?), the preponderance of evidence suggests that it is automation, not immigration, that is eating American jobs.

Read Full Article and you'll understand why Donald Trump hasn't a clue about where to grow Jobs.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stop...ithm-heather-mcgowan?trk=pulse_spock-articles

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RabidAlpaca · Mar 6, 2017

As our education system is falling further and further behind the rest of the world and the republicans are aiming to slash it into oblivion in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy, defense spending and a giant wall, I'd say we're going to have a very hard time keeping the edge we've had without immigrants. In Trump's America foreigners are the source of 100% of our problems and just getting rid of them will make everything rainbow unicorn land.

Vetplus40 · Mar 6, 2017

RabidAlpaca said:
As our education system is falling further and further behind the rest of the world and the republicans are aiming to slash it into oblivion in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy, defense spending and a giant wall, I'd say we're going to have a very hard time keeping the edge we've had without immigrants. In Trump's America foreigners are the source of 100% of our problems and just getting rid of them will make everything rainbow unicorn land.

The farmers in my area would be devastated if they lost immigrant labor. The reason that the Trump agenda is so simple-minded is that this is the demographic that his campaign catered to.

RabidAlpaca · Mar 6, 2017

I'd also like to point out that most of the immigrants who founded these companies were uneducated when they arrived in the US. Elon Musk for example, had no education at all until he went to Stanford.

Captain Adverse · Mar 6, 2017

Cigar said:
Few topics spike the ire of American voters like jobs, immigration, and trade, no doubt because the three are inexorably tied together, at least in the rhetoric of politicians who point to immigration and trade as the villains of the American jobs story.

his narrative was clearly in evidence during the presidential campaign, as candidates in nearly every race made admirable pledges to “bring back jobs” through any number of means: reducing immigration by building a wall on our “southern border”, tearing up trade deals, punishing companies that relocate jobs outside of the US, and/or rounding up and deporting undocumented workers. That political rhetoric has spilled into the post-election zeitgeist in the comment sections of online media, like our Immigration, We Simply Cannot Afford This post that examined the economic contribution of legal immigration over the last half century. The comments section was a river of outrage over illegal immigration and trade, even though neither topic was the focus of the piece. Still, the post hit a cord and has reached over 500,000 views.

It’s no wonder. Jobs -- the lack of them, generally, and the lack of good-paying ones, particularly -- is a hot button for many Americans who are suffering from stagnant wages or worse, up-ended careers. While immigrants and trade may be convenient whipping boys (why else would politicians lite on them so readily?), the preponderance of evidence suggests that it is automation, not immigration, that is eating American jobs.

So, you provide what is essentially an opinion piece indicating it is automation that is the culprit, not immigration.

I disagree, not with the position that automation has a significant effect, but with the position that automation is the ultimate culprit.

Here is a NYT Opinion piece that makes a counter-point:

Inevitably, immigration does not improve everyone’s well-being. There are winners and losers, and we will need to choose among difficult options. The improved lives of the immigrants come at a price...

Those who want more immigration claim that immigrants do jobs that native-born Americans do not want to do. But we all know that the price of gas goes down when the supply of oil goes up. The laws of supply and demand do not evaporate when we talk about the price of labor rather than the price of gas. By now, the well-documented abuses of the H-1B program, such as the Disney workers who had to train their foreign-born replacements, should have obliterated the notion that immigration does not harm competing native workers...

...[A]s proponents of more immigration point out, immigration can increase the aggregate wealth of Americans. But they don’t point out the trade-off involved: Workers in jobs sought by immigrants lose out.

They also don’t point out that low-skill immigration has a side effect that reduces...wealth. The National Academy of Sciences recently estimated [that] on a year-to-year basis, immigrant families, mostly because of their relatively low incomes and higher frequency of participating in government programs like subsidized health care, are a fiscal burden...that immigrants created an annual fiscal shortfall of $43 billion to $299 billion.

[Finally, thanks to ethnic enclaves] Put bluntly, mass migration discourages assimilation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/27/opinion/the-immigration-debate-we-need.html?_r=0

From what I can see it is a combination of Immigration, Automation, and (thanks to "free trade") Outsourcing production and service jobs overseas that are causing the economic slump.

Renae · Mar 6, 2017

Cigar said:
Few topics spike the ire of American voters like jobs, immigration, and trade, no doubt because the three are inexorably tied together, at least in the rhetoric of politicians who point to immigration and trade as the villains of the American jobs story.

his narrative was clearly in evidence during the presidential campaign, as candidates in nearly every race made admirable pledges to “bring back jobs” through any number of means: reducing immigration by building a wall on our “southern border”, tearing up trade deals, punishing companies that relocate jobs outside of the US, and/or rounding up and deporting undocumented workers. That political rhetoric has spilled into the post-election zeitgeist in the comment sections of online media, like our Immigration, We Simply Cannot Afford This post that examined the economic contribution of legal immigration over the last half century. The comments section was a river of outrage over illegal immigration and trade, even though neither topic was the focus of the piece. Still, the post hit a cord and has reached over 500,000 views.

It’s no wonder. Jobs -- the lack of them, generally, and the lack of good-paying ones, particularly -- is a hot button for many Americans who are suffering from stagnant wages or worse, up-ended careers. While immigrants and trade may be convenient whipping boys (why else would politicians lite on them so readily?), the preponderance of evidence suggests that it is automation, not immigration, that is eating American jobs.

Read Full Article and you'll understand why Donald Trump hasn't a clue about where to grow Jobs.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stop...ithm-heather-mcgowan?trk=pulse_spock-articles

View attachment 67214841

Mularky.

USAA, major company, huge employer in San Antonio.

Their IT work, most of it is now in Chennai India. Is this because US Workers were incapable? Nope. It became far cheaper to off shore it because they don't have to pay for things like retirement, SS, healthcare, HR, oh and lower wages.

Here's how it works:

You have an operating budget for say, let's call it 100 million. You need X amount of workers to accomplish the yearly IT work for your company.
Over time, the amount of people on your payroll (US Citizens) becomes more and more costly. Higher wages for American workers, the need to cover healthcare, pay for SS, 401K contributions and any Government mandated regulations (Like the family leave act, which has you paying for people, not at work) drives up your costs and lowers the number of people you have on staff.

So, you are then forced to either have less workers doing more, which drives up turnover from stress and decreases efficiency or...
You can send that 100 Million to a staffing company in another country. This company takes the flat rate 100 Million and can give you a large worker force that you don't have to muck about with with any of the staffing issues. They have contractual obligations to meet in terms of productivity, and you don't have to worry about how they achieve it.

So instead of let's just say 250 American workers, you hire an IT Firm in India that gives you 600 people.

HCL has learned to make this formula work right here in the USA. The internal IT support for USAA used to be all USAA Employees with great wages and benefits. They are all now HCL contractors, and actually most of that's been subcontracted out at even LOWER wages. Same concept as off shoring, just done here. What was a 40k a year job, is now a $13 an hour hourly wage.

Welcome to reality, hope you learned something.

Cigar · Mar 6, 2017

Captain Adverse said:
So, you provide what is essentially an opinion piece indicating it is automation that is the culprit, not immigration.

I disagree, not with the position that automation has a significant effect, but with the position that automation is the ultimate culprit.

Here is a NYT Opinion piece that makes a counter-point:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/27/opinion/the-immigration-debate-we-need.html?_r=0

From what I can see it is a combination of Immigration, Automation, and (thanks to "free trade") Outsourcing production and service jobs overseas that are causing the economic slump.

I've been professionally involved Automation for more than 30 years; it's not an opinion for me, it's been my way of life, my means of income and business strategy. Being intimately involved gives you a unique perspective that few experience. My Employees are from around the world as well as my client and my Business is in bout the Private and Public sector.

No ... it's not an opinion.

katzgar · Mar 6, 2017

RabidAlpaca said:
As our education system is falling further and further behind the rest of the world and the republicans are aiming to slash it into oblivion in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy, defense spending and a giant wall, I'd say we're going to have a very hard time keeping the edge we've had without immigrants. In Trump's America foreigners are the source of 100% of our problems and just getting rid of them will make everything rainbow unicorn land.

your post is just another example of right wing hate. American schools are actually improving but foreign schools are improving faster. there is a fairly sophisticated concept at work here.

KevinKohler · Mar 6, 2017

Renae said:
Mularky.

USAA, major company, huge employer in San Antonio.

Their IT work, most of it is now in Chennai India. Is this because US Workers were incapable? Nope. It became far cheaper to off shore it because they don't have to pay for things like retirement, SS, healthcare, HR, oh and lower wages.

Here's how it works:

You have an operating budget for say, let's call it 100 million. You need X amount of workers to accomplish the yearly IT work for your company.
Over time, the amount of people on your payroll (US Citizens) becomes more and more costly. Higher wages for American workers, the need to cover healthcare, pay for SS, 401K contributions and any Government mandated regulations (Like the family leave act, which has you paying for people, not at work) drives up your costs and lowers the number of people you have on staff.

So, you are then forced to either have less workers doing more, which drives up turnover from stress and decreases efficiency or...
You can send that 100 Million to a staffing company in another country. This company takes the flat rate 100 Million and can give you a large worker force that you don't have to muck about with with any of the staffing issues. They have contractual obligations to meet in terms of productivity, and you don't have to worry about how they achieve it.

So instead of let's just say 250 American workers, you hire an IT Firm in India that gives you 600 people.

HCL has learned to make this formula work right here in the USA. The internal IT support for USAA used to be all USAA Employees with great wages and benefits. They are all now HCL contractors, and actually most of that's been subcontracted out at even LOWER wages. Same concept as off shoring, just done here. What was a 40k a year job, is now a $13 an hour hourly wage.

Welcome to reality, hope you learned something.

So American workers are to blame for wanting more than what your typical Indian worker has?

Fair days pay for a fair days work?

RabidAlpaca · Mar 6, 2017

katzgar said:
your post is just another example of right wing hate. American schools are actually improving but foreign schools are improving faster. there is a fairly sophisticated concept at work here.

I'm not right-wing so I do not drink the right-wing haterade.

So in your world we're not falling behind everyone else because our education system is inadequate, it's just that those damn foreigners are so much better! How does this change anything I said? Our education is falling behind the rest of the world and the republicans are literally trying to defund and deregulate education for other programs. We already can't fill all the tech jobs with Americans so we're just going to have to keep importing more and more. More tanks and bullets doesn't make America safer in the 21st century, having smarter people with a technological advantage does. We're ranked 17th in the world right now in education and it's dropping.

KevinKohler · Mar 6, 2017

Cigar said:
I've been professionally involved Automation for more than 30 years; it's not an opinion for me, it's been my way of life, my means of income and business strategy. Being intimately involved gives you a unique perspective that few experience. My Employees are from around the world as well as my client and my Business is in bout the Private and Public sector.

No ... it's not an opinion.

Question for you, then.

Is simply retraining the population to be robotics technicians and programmers the way forward, in terms of close to full employment, and economic success as a society?

Or is that a pipe dream, and the simple truth is, less labor being done by humans combined with more humans = permanently high unemployment, or under employment?

Crovax · Mar 6, 2017

Cigar said:
Few topics spike the ire of American voters like jobs, immigration, and trade, no doubt because the three are inexorably tied together, at least in the rhetoric of politicians who point to immigration and trade as the villains of the American jobs story.

his narrative was clearly in evidence during the presidential campaign, as candidates in nearly every race made admirable pledges to “bring back jobs” through any number of means: reducing immigration by building a wall on our “southern border”, tearing up trade deals, punishing companies that relocate jobs outside of the US, and/or rounding up and deporting undocumented workers. That political rhetoric has spilled into the post-election zeitgeist in the comment sections of online media, like our Immigration, We Simply Cannot Afford This post that examined the economic contribution of legal immigration over the last half century. The comments section was a river of outrage over illegal immigration and trade, even though neither topic was the focus of the piece. Still, the post hit a cord and has reached over 500,000 views.

It’s no wonder. Jobs -- the lack of them, generally, and the lack of good-paying ones, particularly -- is a hot button for many Americans who are suffering from stagnant wages or worse, up-ended careers. While immigrants and trade may be convenient whipping boys (why else would politicians lite on them so readily?), the preponderance of evidence suggests that it is automation, not immigration, that is eating American jobs.

Read Full Article and you'll understand why Donald Trump hasn't a clue about where to grow Jobs.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stop...ithm-heather-mcgowan?trk=pulse_spock-articles

View attachment 67214841

Note that only one of those came from the "southern border" and even that isnt really correct to call him a "2nd generation Cuban"

"His maternal ancestors were settlers who lived in Texas, and over the generations acquired a 25,000-acre (101 km2 or 39 miles2) ranch near Cotulla. Bezos’s maternal grandfather was a regional director of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission in Albuquerque."

KevinKohler · Mar 6, 2017

How many of those businesses were founded by illegal immigrants?

Cigar · Mar 6, 2017

KevinKohler said:
Question for you, then.

Is simply retraining the population to be robotics technicians and programmers the way forward, in terms of close to full employment, and economic success as a society?

Or is that a pipe dream, and the simple truth is, less labor being done by humans combined with more humans = permanently high unemployment, or under employment?

Even Ditch Diggers have been replaced by Caterpillar and it's competitors in China and Japan

Look ... I was never in the business of fighting progress, and those who do, become dinosaurs. I'd rather spend my time in a space that's competitive, rather than waiting for something to come backwards to me.

Crovax · Mar 6, 2017

RabidAlpaca said:
I'd also like to point out that most of the immigrants who founded these companies were uneducated when they arrived in the US. Elon Musk for example, had no education at all until he went to Stanford.

What?

Cigar · Mar 6, 2017

KevinKohler said:
How many of those businesses were founded by illegal immigrants?

:doh Why would anyone publish that?

Cigar · Mar 6, 2017

Crovax said:
Note that only one of those came from the "southern border" and even that isnt really correct to call him a "2nd generation Cuban"

"His maternal ancestors were settlers who lived in Texas, and over the generations acquired a 25,000-acre (101 km2 or 39 miles2) ranch near Cotulla. Bezos’s maternal grandfather was a regional director of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission in Albuquerque."

That's because most are small businesses ... just get up and drive around your neighborhood any summer morning see most of them.

KevinKohler · Mar 6, 2017

Cigar said:
:doh Why would anyone publish that?

Because you constructed a straw man. No one is going after legal immigrants and blaming them for our woes. If they are, provide a link?

RabidAlpaca · Mar 6, 2017

Crovax said:
What?

What was it you didn't understand? I was addressing the recent argument for immigration reform where only the highly educated are let in.

Crovax · Mar 6, 2017

RabidAlpaca said:
What was it you didn't understand? I was addressing the recent argument for immigration reform where only the highly educated are let in.

Well this statement "Elon Musk for example, had no education at all until he went to Stanford."

Its clearly a joke but I dont understand why its funny

jimbo · Mar 6, 2017

RabidAlpaca said:
As our education system is falling further and further behind the rest of the world and the republicans are aiming to slash it into oblivion in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy, defense spending and a giant wall, I'd say we're going to have a very hard time keeping the edge we've had without immigrants. In Trump's America foreigners are the source of 100% of our problems and just getting rid of them will make everything rainbow unicorn land.

The Republicans, sir, are not aiming to slash education into oblivion, but rather to improve it by ceasing to do the same O same O that has resulted in the failure it has become.

They will do this by introducing competition into the system and placing the choices in the hands of the parents and students. It's called school vouchers. Has nothing to do with tax cuts for anybody.

RabidAlpaca · Mar 6, 2017

Crovax said:
Well this statement "Elon Musk for example, had no education at all until he went to Stanford."

Its clearly a joke but I dont understand why its funny

Are you here to troll or did you actually have a point? What's a joke? What's funny? Are you saying when he arrived in the US he already had a degree and he's hiding it for some reason? If you're not going to make a point or contribute to the conversation in some way I'm not sure why you're here.

jimbo said:
The Republicans, sir, are not aiming to slash education into oblivion, but rather to improve it by ceasing to do the same O same O that has resulted in the failure it has become.

They will do this by introducing competition into the system and placing the choices in the hands of the parents and students. It's called school vouchers. Has nothing to do with tax cuts for anybody.

You're defunding public schools by allowing parents to take money from the public school to send their kid to Jesus school where they can learn about creationism and the bible instead of science and math. 90+% of the students are in a religious school in Wisconsin where there are vouchers. Many of the schools are just local churches who converted a few rooms to a pseudo-school to soak up funding. The vouchers aren't usually enough to cover full tuition so the middle class students might be able to afford a private school but lower income students are stuck in the now dramatically underfunded public school.

Bernie Sanders' suggested program to make colleges and trade schools tuition free (like K-12 already is) would've cost 70 billion a year, and everyone asked "How you going to pay for that comrade"? (A 0.1% tax on financial speculation) Yet the republicans can dump 57 billion more into an already bloated defense budget and 20 billion more on an idiotic wall, no problem paying for any of that. Our priority is not education and if we don't make it our priority we're going to continue to fall further and further behind.

Renae · Mar 6, 2017

KevinKohler said:
So American workers are to blame for wanting more than what your typical Indian worker has?

Fair days pay for a fair days work?

That's what you took out of all that?

Crovax · Mar 6, 2017

RabidAlpaca said:
Are you here to troll or did you actually have a point? What's a joke? What's funny? Are you saying when he arrived in the US he already had a degree and he's hiding it for some reason? If you're not going to make a point or contribute to the conversation in some way I'm not sure why you're here.

Well Elon musk had 2 degrees and attended 3 universities (2 in the US and 1 in Canada) as well as being schooled by private prep schools in his youth before his 2 day stint as a Stanford student

KevinKohler · Mar 6, 2017

Renae said:
That's what you took out of all that?

I read into things.

If jobs are outsourced due to pay and benefits, then the problem is too much pay and too many benefits.

Yes?

The Hard Truth About Lost Jobs: It's Not About Immigration

Cigar

RabidAlpaca

Engineer

Vetplus40

RabidAlpaca

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Captain Adverse

Classical Liberal Sage

Renae

Cigar

katzgar

KevinKohler

RabidAlpaca

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KevinKohler

Crovax

KevinKohler

Cigar

Crovax

Cigar

Cigar

KevinKohler

RabidAlpaca

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Crovax

jimbo

RabidAlpaca

Engineer

Renae

Crovax

KevinKohler