Why Automation Will Create, Not Destroy, Jobs! This Ain't Kansas Anymore!

If you have been watching political tectonics on both sides of the Atlantic, you may have noticed that analysts are increasingly getting it wrong: "it" being economics, politics, and social trends. The all of it, wrong. Why is this?

Not in Kansas Anymore

We are now deep into a digital transformation, and a new way of thinking and working and living. The business models of our past are faltering. Legacy thinking is virtually unfit for this digital age. The reality is that the conditions within which humanity operates are not what they used to be. Yet, thousands of self-proclaimed experts continue their important work with obsolete methods and mindsets, outdated hardware and software.

A prime example of this is the hysteria that surrounds automation and artificial intelligence. Almost every newspaper and media outlet warns of an apocalyptic future when technology will fracture the employment landscape. As a result, many fear that technology is creating job-stealing robots.

On that score, there are many lessons to be learned from our past.

For example, the industrial revolution taught us that as traditional jobs disappear, we need to ensure that people of all ages are sufficiently educated to prepare and take advantage of the new emerging roles in our immediate future.

Burying our heads in the sand and arming our children with skills for roles that will no longer exist is certainly not the answer. Neither is clinging to business models of the past or recreating the good-old days. The times demand new skills, new mindsets, new competencies, and new institutions.


“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry Ford


Stuck in the Past

This backward glance is one of the problems that I encountered with President Trump's campaign slogan "Make America Great Again." It is impossible to go back in time or to recreate the past. Building a better and brighter future is the only way forward.

If we compare the jobs of one hundred years ago to the job of the present, we would be stunned by the standard of living and the thankless work. Creative directors, content strategists, app developers and social media managers are a product of our times. The mentality of doing what you love is also a product of the epoch.

Indeed, hundreds of traditional roles have disappeared over the years, but they have been replaced with new job titles for our digital age.


The Labor Force of Today

Despite the big scary headlines, we are not running out of work. The challenge that faces society and government is that many people see the available jobs as, on the one hand, unworthy of them. On the other, they see themselves as lacking the skills to qualify.

It is true that the growing demise of middle-skill jobs could cause employment polarization where lower paid workers serve the more affluent without upward mobility. This dynamic would undoubtedly be a step backward. However—once again—the lessons learned from past economic transformations suggest it does not have to be this way.

For example, today it is difficult to imagine that people once blamed the tractor for killing agricultural jobs. In fact, this new machine left an entire generation without work on farms. It also led to the inception of the high school movement, which then led to greater investment in education and ultimately created tremendous prosperity.

Although we often congratulate ourselves for just how far we have come as a society, the truth is that we have the same problems today as we did 200 years ago.



As technology continues to pervade every aspect of human life, change—within us and around us—will remain the only constant. Sure, there are challenges and difficult decisions ahead of us. Take heart. Our destiny is in our hands, not in the hands of the machines we create. Don’t let any publication tell you otherwise.

Sourced from LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-...g-harsh?trk=hp-feed-article-title-channel-add


When will America learn from it's own past ... and stop trying to con Americans that Old Outdated Jobs are coming Back; because they're NOT! :roll:

Sure, some new jobs are formed as automation advances, but far more jobs are destroyed. It is absolutely a net-loss of jobs. Factories that used to require thousands of workers can now get away with a couple of dozen. This problem is only going to get worse and with the rise of AI more jobs that thought they were safe will be replaced. I didn't once hear this addressed by either of the two nominees during the 2016 election. Automation has killed more jobs than immigration and globalization ever will.

The only way to address this is by investing heavily in education and job training/re-training programs, particularly for STEM fields. The world is becoming more and more technological, and we need a better educated workforce.

The second thing we need to address is the question of how to run a society when there are dramatically less jobs/work than there are people. We can't continue to tie a person's livelihood to their ability to find a job. What changes we must take to address that can be debated, that eventually something big has got to change can't. Truck driver is the most common job in all 50 states. What happens to the millions of American truck drivers when the self-driving car is perfected? Multiple different companies already have working prototypes. They will be replaced the second it becomes cheaper for the company to do so, and without serious job re-training they will find themselves completely unable to survive in the new marketplace.

Sorry, but so far I remain unpersuaded.

Now, I don't think we should outlaw or ban robots from the workplace. I also agree that in some cases, automation frees up workers from mind-numbing and/or dangerous tasks, which keeps them healthier and pushes them to look for new jobs.

However, it is also screamingly obvious to me that automation is "creatively destroying" many of the jobs that once provided a middle-class wage without extensive secondary education. It's also becoming obvious that those displaced workers cannot simply turn around and work in new fields in a matter of days. The new workforce requires significant training, and this causes all sorts of issues. The training can often be specific, but employers don't want to pay for it, because employees generally don't stick around (in no small part because they aren't usually paid well, and can be fired at will, meaning employer treatment of employees often disincentivizes employee loyalty). In turn, those workers may not know what skills they should train on, or training may be difficult to receive, or they may not be able to afford training.

The result is a mismatch between skills and jobs, and workers winding up in lower-skilled and lower-paying jobs.

Thus, I don't think it helps anyone to deny that automation kills off certain types of jobs, and that recovering from that job shift is difficult.

RabidAlpaca said:

Sure, some new jobs are formed as automation advances, but far more jobs are destroyed. It is absolutely a net-loss of jobs. Factories that used to require thousands of workers can now get away with a couple of dozen. This problem is only going to get worse and with the rise of AI more jobs that thought they were safe will be replaced. I didn't once hear this addressed by either of the two nominees during the 2016 election. Automation has killed more jobs than immigration and globalization ever will.

The only way to address this is by investing heavily in education and job training/re-training programs, particularly for STEM fields. The world is becoming more and more technological, and we need a better educated workforce.

The second thing we need to address is the question of how to run a society when there are dramatically less jobs/work than there are people. We can't continue to tie a person's livelihood to their ability to find a job. What changes we must take to address that can be debated, that eventually something big has got to change can't. Truck driver is the most common job in all 50 states. What happens to the millions of American truck drivers when the self-driving car is perfected? Multiple different companies already have working prototypes. They will be replaced the second it becomes cheaper for the company to do so, and without serious job re-training they will find themselves completely unable to survive in the new marketplace.

Click to expand...

Exactly ... Education is not a Cost, it's an Investment. The problem is, the vast majority of Politicians reaped All the benefits of Local Public and State funded Education; now they want to end it. I went to public school and a State University and I'd bet 90% of Americans did also.

So anyone who is sitting around thinking good paying jobs are going to come around for all the people with grade school education, they're in a fantasy world ... even most Law Enforcement Positions are requiring a Two Year Degree.

People need to wake up and smell reality. If they are sitting around thinking Donald Trump gives a flying F'ck about them, they going to be Bigleage Surprised 4 years from now. BTW, that's the average time it would take to get a 4 year degree for any working or Non-working Adult.

Cigar said:

Exactly ... Education is not a Cost, it's an Investment. The problem is, the vast majority of Politicians reaped All the benefits of Local Public and State funded Education; now they want to end it. I went to public school and a State University and I'd bet 90% pf American did also.

So anyone who is sitting around thinking good paying jobs are going to come around for all the people with grade school education, they're in a fantasy world ... even most Law Enforcement Positions are requiring a Two Year Degree.

People need to wake up and smell reality. If they are sitting around thinking Donald Trump give a flying F'ck about them, they going to Bigleage Surprised 4 years from now. BTW, that's the average time it would take to get a 4 year degree for any working or Non-working Adult.

Click to expand...

This is why my money long term is on China and many other countries. America has benefited from being "on top" for so long, but the once "third world" countries are closing the gap in everything. In just a few decades South Korea went from totally broke farm people to a technological and economic powerhouse. China is investing heavily in education and infrastructure, and America is intentionally killing theirs. If we let Devos turn our education system into primarily private schools who teach Jesus instead of science, we're going to get absolutely hammered for generations.

Visbek said:

Sorry, but so far I remain unpersuaded.

Now, I don't think we should outlaw or ban robots from the workplace. I also agree that in some cases, automation frees up workers from mind-numbing and/or dangerous tasks, which keeps them healthier and pushes them to look for new jobs.

Click to expand...

I agree with Bill Gates' recent suggestion (though it's been around a long time before that) to tax the robots, or automation in general to pay for social services. It makes no sense that a factory can fire 1000 workers who paid taxes on their income and replace them with robots that don't pay any taxes at all.

Visbek said:

Sorry, but so far I remain unpersuaded.

Now, I don't think we should outlaw or ban robots from the workplace. I also agree that in some cases, automation frees up workers from mind-numbing and/or dangerous tasks, which keeps them healthier and pushes them to look for new jobs.

However, it is also screamingly obvious to me that automation is "creatively destroying" many of the jobs that once provided a middle-class wage without extensive secondary education. It's also becoming obvious that those displaced workers cannot simply turn around and work in new fields in a matter of days. The new workforce requires significant training, and this causes all sorts of issues. The training can often be specific, but employers don't want to pay for it, because employees generally don't stick around (in no small part because they aren't usually paid well, and can be fired at will, meaning employer treatment of employees often disincentivizes employee loyalty). In turn, those workers may not know what skills they should train on, or training may be difficult to receive, or they may not be able to afford training.

The result is a mismatch between skills and jobs, and workers winding up in lower-skilled and lower-paying jobs.

Thus, I don't think it helps anyone to deny that automation kills off certain types of jobs, and that recovering from that job shift is difficult.

Click to expand...

While this is somewhat true, the same debate has been going on for over 100 years.

Do you really believe that there are materially less people factory labor in the world, or that there is something different going on in America. You would have us believe that 10s of millions of the jobs of say have disappeared while the job growth in Asia and Mexico belie that fact.

Do er really need EVERYONE to go to college so we can have more college educated waiters and cab drivers. Or do you think we will create more CEOs because more folks graduated from college.

It would be great if folks would put aside nonsense talking points and think through these serious issues.

washunut said:

While this is somewhat true, the same debate has been going on for over 100 years.

Do you really believe that there are materially less people factory labor in the world, or that there is something different going on in America. You would have us believe that 10s of millions of the jobs of say have disappeared while the job growth in Asia and Mexico belie that fact.

Do er really need EVERYONE to go to college so we can have more college educated waiters and cab drivers. Or do you think we will create more CEOs because more folks graduated from college.

It would be great if folks would put aside nonsense talking points and think through these serious issues.

Click to expand...

Many people who are against public funding of education use this argument and it's simply incorrect. Not everyone should go to college and no one is suggesting that. Trade and tech schools should be covered as well. One thing the Germans do very well is putting virtually everyone through some type of job training as part of publicly funded education. Instead of just tuitionless K-12, it's tuitionless K-12 + job training or college. Everyone leaving their education period should have a trade of some sort, while in America we just tell all of our high schoolers to "figure it out", and many are left with no prospects at all.

washunut said:

While this is somewhat true, the same debate has been going on for over 100 years.

Do you really believe that there are materially less people factory labor in the world, or that there is something different going on in America. You would have us believe that 10s of millions of the jobs of say have disappeared while the job growth in Asia and Mexico belie that fact.

Do er really need EVERYONE to go to college so we can have more college educated waiters and cab drivers. Or do you think we will create more CEOs because more folks graduated from college.

It would be great if folks would put aside nonsense talking points and think through these serious issues.

Click to expand...

Education doesn't = College Degree!

There's numerous avenues to receiving relevant skills for today's work environment.

Ask any Farmer today; does he want the Blow from a 100 years ago or mew John Deere.

Planting and plowing a 100 archers required Man-Power and Weeks and Months.

I see one man doing it in a weekend my me all the time.

That same Man-Power the Farmer needed years ago, is used on the back-end getting produce to market.

Many well spent ... just ask any Farmer if he want the Good-Old Days back.

RabidAlpaca said:

I agree with Bill Gates' recent suggestion (though it's been around a long time before that) to tax the robots, or automation in general to pay for social services. It makes no sense that a factory can fire 1000 workers who paid taxes on their income and replace them with robots that don't pay any taxes at all.

Click to expand...

I don't think that is a feasible answer. All that does is add all sorts of inefficiencies, and will push manufacturers to game the system in order to avoid the higher taxes. It's no better than trying to whack tariffs on imports.

Visbek said:

I don't think that is a feasible answer. All that does is add all sorts of inefficiencies, and will push manufacturers to game the system in order to avoid the higher taxes. It's no better than trying to whack tariffs on imports.

Click to expand...

K, let's let the robot owners get 100% of everything and let everyone else starve.

washunut said:

Do you really believe that there are materially less people factory labor in the world, or that there is something different going on in America. You would have us believe that 10s of millions of the jobs of say have disappeared while the job growth in Asia and Mexico belie that fact.

Click to expand...

Erm.... English translation?

In an attempt to decipher your question: American workers are far more productive today than 50, 25, 10 years ago. There should be no question that this has dramatically reduced the amount of labor required to complete a task.

And it's not just about factory work. In the 50s, a company needed receptionists and secretarial pools to produce memos and letters for interoffice communication. Today, all that work is done by executives typing their own emails onto their computers (or phones), and using digital phone systems that are often integrated into computers and mobile devices. We no longer need anywhere near as many secretaries, receptionists, accountants, travel agents and more to manage a company.

Do er really need EVERYONE to go to college so we can have more college educated waiters and cab drivers. Or do you think we will create more CEOs because more folks graduated from college.

Click to expand...

Re-read my post.

Employers are having a tough time finding people to do the specific work they need. Employees face serious challenges gaining those skills. This has created a skills gap. Merely saying "go to college" doesn't help if those students don't develop the skills they need.

And yes, eventually most people will need some type of secondary education in order to find a decent job. You can either accept that fact, or you can get run over by the changes in the economy. Take your pick.

It would be great if folks would put aside nonsense talking points and think through these serious issues.

Click to expand...

:roll:

That is exactly what I did. Thanks for not noticing.

RabidAlpaca said:

I agree with Bill Gates' recent suggestion (though it's been around a long time before that) to tax the robots, or automation in general to pay for social services. It makes no sense that a factory can fire 1000 workers who paid taxes on their income and replace them with robots that don't pay any taxes at all.

Click to expand...

Economically, automation is a net boon to society. It's capital investment. It helps the economic position of more people than it hurts. I agree that we should take measures to share these gains with those who are harmed. But taxing companies for investing in automation only disincentivizes them to do so, disincentivizes companies to invest in capital that makes society as a whole wealthier.

We shouldn't do this, we should encourage this kind of investment and share the gains it yields us. Yes, this does mean we need to fund such programs via taxation. But the tax should not be tied to the adoption of automation and not levied exclusively on producers because the gains are not shared exclusively by producers (consumers, for whom goods now cost less, also share).