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social security : what will happen, now that trump won ?

The SSA provides estimates on the solvency projection :

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/

Be careful of the "and". This estimates are specifically exclusive, and you can't add the solutions together because of interaction between policy options. If we raise retirement age and change the CPI, the estimate on the value of changing the CPI assumes that you are paying benefits at the normal retirement age. Not sure if that makes sense.

Typically you see the initial benefit level reduced by changing the index from average wages to to some measure of inflation. Average wages tend to move faster than inflation. The Chain-CPI normally comes in with the COLA, which is the annual adjustment to the initial benefit level.

If you have any questions please feel free.

Actually, the chained-CPI, which Republicans have been pushing for, but has not yet been enacted, assumes that Seniors are eating steak, but will switch to hamburger, due to the economy. The problem with that view is that, it is logical, then, to assume that Seniors who have been eating hamburger (which is probably 99% of them) will switch to dog food or cat food.
 
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Because it is true - in 17 years the oldest baby boomers will be 88. Unless we find a way to stop aging or aging related illness during the next 17 years, the vast majority of the first babyboomer retirees will be 88 years old. It's simple math.

It is simple. That doesn't mean that it useful.

I gave you the data from the latest Trustees report. It shows that the gaps in Social Security get wider forever. This isn't a demographic problem. It is a problem of politics where the system makes promises it can't keep.
 
Actually, the chained-CPI, which Republicans have been pushing for, but has not yet been enacted, assumes that Seniors are eating steak, but will switch to hamburger, due to the economy. The problem with that view is that, it is logical, then, to assume that Seniors who have been eating hamburger (which is probably 99% of them) will switch to dog food or cat food.

Not really. The problem is that Social Security is a supposed to be old-age insurance. The problem with lowering the COLA is that it get progressively harder on people as they age. This is like buying fire insurance where the deductible gets higher based on the number of rooms in the fire.

I wrote a piece in Forbes on the change and its problems :

Forbes how not to fix social security
 
As long as they can keep a firewall around SS and have it be just what it is, something you contribute to, and something you in turn get at retirement, I'm fine with it.
If liberals keep trying to turn it into just another tax on the wealthy (removing the payroll cap but keeping benefit limits), who already pay for the vast majority of all social services, then I'd rather see it burn than feed their misguided tinkering.

There has never been a firewall. The core mechanism has been to tax the next generation which is outside the wall. Now, we can't service existing retirees solely by penalizing future workers. We can't even service them without large cuts on existing voters that is the core problem.
 
That would be fine except as social creatures most of us could not stand by and let someone suffer or die. Since we are a social beings social programs are and will be necessary for our survival.

Right there is one of the many reason that I fully support SS. It forces the responsible and the not-responsible to purchase old age insurance. It doesn't really harm the responsible because they would have saved/invested anyway, but it helps to keep me from paying for the irresponsible who wouldn't save a penny on their own. We are going to provide for these people regardless, so at least let's make sure that they contribute to what we provide.

I also see SS as "keeps the inlaws from having to move in with me" insurance. I know that me and my wife's parents will have a lifelong income, regardless of how much or little they have saved, and with this income it significantly reduces the likelyhood or duration that they would have to move in with us and mooch off of us. It's worth the cost for that if nothing else.
 
There has never been a firewall. The core mechanism has been to tax the next generation which is outside the wall. Now, we can't service existing retirees solely by penalizing future workers. We can't even service them without large cuts on existing voters that is the core problem.

As long as we pay in and get out, and not much can be corrupted by politicians/special interests, that's fine, it's how it's structured. Funding can come from taxes, but IMO it should either be on the actual wealthy ($10m+?) or more fairly distributed (everyone feels some of the pain).

The point I'm making is that people at $120K-> $1MK (?) per year, are probably living upper middle class life styles. That's only "wealthy" to young kids who don't have the sense to ask where those people live, how long it took to earn that much, how many years left they plan on working, etc., etc. Yet all our "soak the rich" liberal pushes, and existing ones, affect $120-$250K range...people who are paying the FULL highest tax rates already. These are not the big tax dodgers they use in the rhetoric. Sure Warren Buffet pays less because its all cap gains, and he's you know, earning billions. The difference is some order of magnitude. It does not hit the ultra-wealthy in proportion, it doesn't hit the middle class *at all*, so it's bull****.
 
As long as we pay in and get out, and not much can be corrupted by politicians/special interests, that's fine, it's how it's structured. Funding can come from taxes, but IMO it should either be on the actual wealthy ($10m+?) or more fairly distributed (everyone feels some of the pain).

If Social Security cannot be corrupted by politics, how do you explain the 'expand benefits' movement. This is a bizarre effort because many of the expansions increase the benefit level of the wealthy more than the benefit level of the poor.

I can tell you that it is not structured in the way you believe. FDR designed the system to pay benefits based on past earnings, which meant that benefit levels were connected to the contribution of the worker, and the more you make the less benefit levels increased. That is a fair as you can get.

The point I'm making is that people at $120K-> $1MK (?) per year, are probably living upper middle class life styles. That's only "wealthy" to young kids who don't have the sense to ask where those people live, how long it took to earn that much, how many years left they plan on working, etc., etc. Yet all our "soak the rich" liberal pushes, and existing ones, affect $120-$250K range...people who are paying the FULL highest tax rates already. These are not the big tax dodgers they use in the rhetoric. Sure Warren Buffet pays less because its all cap gains, and he's you know, earning billions. The difference is some order of magnitude. It does not hit the ultra-wealthy in proportion, it doesn't hit the middle class *at all*, so it's bull****.

It shouldn't hit people based on wealth at all. The point is that the system is supposed to be insurance. You pay taxes which serve as an insurance premium. If you think these are taxes, how do you explain paying Bernie Sanders and his wife 50K a year in benefits when about 1/5th of the poorest seniors are not even eligible for benefits. In your model, you are 'soaking the rich' solely to pay benefits instead of using the tax revenue for things like infrastructure and debt reduction.

This is a piece that I wrote on why the government shouldn't raise the limit on wages subject payroll tax. It goes into more detail about the consequences of what you are suggesting.

http://www.fedsmith.com/2014/08/25/reasons-not-to-raise-the-social-security-cap/

"If you see FICA payments purely as a tax, any limit on the tax makes no sense. If we are going to pay for Social Security with a tax, all Americans including retirees should be subject to the tax. The tax base should extend beyond wages to all forms of income. The system should also tax all workers, including those of Galveston County who were exempted from Social Security 30 years ago. It is unreasonable to narrowly focus a regressive tax on a sub-set of workers. (Roughly 7% of the work force is not covered by Social Security)."
 
If Social Security cannot be corrupted by politics, how do you explain the 'expand benefits' movement. This is a bizarre effort because many of the expansions increase the benefit level of the wealthy more than the benefit level of the poor.
I don't know the specifics, but that's primarily, from what I've read, about low income seniors, survivor benefits, and caregivers. It's not some dramatic, outlandish thing IMO.

I can tell you that it is not structured in the way you believe. FDR designed the system to pay benefits based on past earnings, which meant that benefit levels were connected to the contribution of the worker, and the more you make the less benefit levels increased. That is a fair as you can get.
That's true, but there is nothing sacred about prototypes, and as a matter of structure, a static structure is fragile...this was lessons learned prior to the establishment of the U.S. government itself... We're going to pay for old people one way or the other, I really don't mind a tax on me, to help that. As long as we can keep it reasonably in line with it being a trust, and wisely invested, so be it.

One of the big downsides they claim with regards to private investment vs government bond investment (current), is that you may lose it all in private investment (but typically you get what, 3x the return which means far more after compounding?) But is this really the case in government pensions? Do state/federal governments not back those pensions, regardless of investment return already? Maybe you know, my impression is that its rare, but when it does occur, they just lobby and of course we take care of pensioners, they always cut some deal. <-- benefits a select group but everyone supports it. What's your take on that? Why do only government employees get the benefit of government pensions...when the boon of government backed pensions is really paid for by ALL citizens..

In your model, you are 'soaking the rich' solely to pay benefits instead of using the tax revenue for things like infrastructure and debt reduction.
In the current model. Yes, the wealthy do help care for seniors, the disabled, etc. I have no issue with that today. It's not like they are getting a fortune, this puts them what...at poverty level? It's not excessive from that standpoint.

This is a piece that I wrote on why the government shouldn't raise the limit on wages subject payroll tax. It goes into more detail about the consequences of what you are suggesting.
I already agree we should not raise the payroll cap, that's what I've stated here and in numerous threads.

For example, instead do this:
Increase Social Security taxes. If workers and employers each paid 7.6% (up from today's 6.2%), it would eliminate the financing gap altogether. This 1.4% increase (2.8% for self-employed) has over 60% support in surveys conducted by the National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI)
Or some combination of that and retirement age, fraud prevention.

Basically everyone that can work should work and invest in SS. The wealthiest income earners will subsidize the lowest income earners as part of this plan, to ensure the lower income earners are at a bare minimum income in retirement/disability. We will have to pay for that either way, we may as well do it with the system designed to do that.
 
I don't know the specifics, but that's primarily, from what I've read, about low income seniors, survivor benefits, and caregivers. It's not some dramatic, outlandish thing IMO.

It depends upon your definition of outlandish. Bernie Sanders plan directed 5 times the amount of new benefits to the wealthy seniors than spent on low-income ones. To me that was outlandish. What sends it over the top is that Bernie hides a nasty benefit cut to future retirees (ie the guy who is 35 today) in the middle class.


That's true, but there is nothing sacred about prototypes, and as a matter of structure, a static structure is fragile...this was lessons learned prior to the establishment of the U.S. government itself... We're going to pay for old people one way or the other, I really don't mind a tax on me, to help that. As long as we can keep it reasonably in line with it being a trust, and wisely invested, so be it.

One of the big downsides they claim with regards to private investment vs government bond investment (current), is that you may lose it all in private investment (but typically you get what, 3x the return which means far more after compounding?) But is this really the case in government pensions? Do state/federal governments not back those pensions, regardless of investment return already? Maybe you know, my impression is that its rare, but when it does occur, they just lobby and of course we take care of pensioners, they always cut some deal. <-- benefits a select group but everyone supports it. What's your take on that? Why do only government employees get the benefit of government pensions...when the boon of government backed pensions is really paid for by ALL citizens..

Social Security is not backed by the federal government. State pensions are very different. The benefits are frequently liabilities of the state. The problem with your analysis here is that Social Security does not have any money left over to invest. Every penny of revenue is spent on benefits. The 2.8 trillion held in government securities is real, but it is already committed to government securities. If we sold them, to invest the money else where. The government would have to borrow dollar for dollar from the private sector to refinance the debt. There is no upside at all.

In the current model. Yes, the wealthy do help care for seniors, the disabled, etc. I have no issue with that today. It's not like they are getting a fortune, this puts them what...at poverty level? It's not excessive from that standpoint.


I already agree we should not raise the payroll cap, that's what I've stated here and in numerous threads.

For example, instead do this:

Or some combination of that and retirement age, fraud prevention.

Basically everyone that can work should work and invest in SS. The wealthiest income earners will subsidize the lowest income earners as part of this plan, to ensure the lower income earners are at a bare minimum income in retirement/disability. We will have to pay for that either way, we may as well do it with the system designed to do that .

Be careful of data from NASI. It is an ideological outfit where the conclusion is more important than the facts.

Our system is not wealthist income subsidize poor ones. Today it is future workers subsidizing current retirees in a bizarre set of cashflows.
 
It depends upon your definition of outlandish.
Candidates rarely have a clue when running. The actual ideas get vetted if they win, and if they get traction, and after negotiation. But that's always a nail biting process, and its often a Frankenstein by then too, I agree its far from a warm fuzzy process. I don't know of many alternatives.

Social Security is not backed by the federal government. State pensions are very different. The benefits are frequently liabilities of the state. The problem with your analysis here is that Social Security does not have any money left over to invest. Every penny of revenue is spent on benefits. The 2.8 trillion held in government securities is real, but it is already committed to government securities. If we sold them, to invest the money else where. The government would have to borrow dollar for dollar from the private sector to refinance the debt. There is no upside at all.
Social security is not guaranteed, as compared to a pension? Or is it just the language I used. My understanding is SS is not going anywhere, put pensions we have seen, can go bust, but are often bailed out by some combination of federal/state action.

Just MMT the difference, no downside ;)

Our system is not wealthist income subsidize poor ones. Today it is future workers subsidizing current retirees in a bizarre set of cashflows.
Yes, nut the benefits payout is progressive regardless.
 
Right there is one of the many reason that I fully support SS. It forces the responsible and the not-responsible to purchase old age insurance. It doesn't really harm the responsible because they would have saved/invested anyway, but it helps to keep me from paying for the irresponsible who wouldn't save a penny on their own. We are going to provide for these people regardless, so at least let's make sure that they contribute to what we provide.

I also see SS as "keeps the inlaws from having to move in with me" insurance. I know that me and my wife's parents will have a lifelong income, regardless of how much or little they have saved, and with this income it significantly reduces the likelyhood or duration that they would have to move in with us and mooch off of us. It's worth the cost for that if nothing else.

Like I said necessary for survival.

You sound like you are doing pretty good financially. You want my in laws as well?;)
 
Candidates rarely have a clue when running. The actual ideas get vetted if they win, and if they get traction, and after negotiation. But that's always a nail biting process, and its often a Frankenstein by then too, I agree its far from a warm fuzzy process. I don't know of many alternatives.


Social security is not guaranteed, as compared to a pension? Or is it just the language I used. My understanding is SS is not going anywhere, put pensions we have seen, can go bust, but are often bailed out by some combination of federal/state action.

Just MMT the difference, no downside ;)


Yes, nut the benefits payout is progressive regardless.

Not sure about your interest in details. Here is a proposal out this morning. If this legislation passed, it represents a 19% benefit cut on future retirees.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/SJohnson_20161208.pdf
 
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