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Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground | FiveThirtyEight
They offer a couple possible explanations:
1 - There's a lag between a presidential candidates upswing and polls reflecting that for senate choices, this has happened before
2 - The one I think seems likely, that Americans sometimes will deliberately vote split ticket when they feel confident in predicting the president in an effort to balance things.
This doesn't bode well for the supreme court vacancy. Here's hoping we don't get stuck on 8 permanently.
Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground | FiveThirtyEight
In recent elections, more and more voters have been choosing candidates from the same party for president and Senate. That trend appeared to be holding true this year too, even with Donald Trump, unusual as he is, on the ballot. So as Hillary Clinton jumped out to a bigger lead in the polls starting after the first presidential debate in late September, we might have expected Democratic Senate candidates to poll better as well. That hasn’t happened — the chance of Democrats controlling the Senate is only 54 percent in our polls-only model and 56 percent in our polls-plus model.
They offer a couple possible explanations:
1 - There's a lag between a presidential candidates upswing and polls reflecting that for senate choices, this has happened before
2 - The one I think seems likely, that Americans sometimes will deliberately vote split ticket when they feel confident in predicting the president in an effort to balance things.
This doesn't bode well for the supreme court vacancy. Here's hoping we don't get stuck on 8 permanently.