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All Trump Needs To Do to WIN is....

E

EvaPeron

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Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.

Together they equate to 274 Electoral Votes


I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.
 
Currently, Hillary is leading nationally by a 6.5 point lead on RCP. On Five Thirty Eight, Hillary has whopping 83.4% chance of winning the election, compared to Trump's meager 16.6% chance of winning.

So you can call it biased media/polling if you wish, but I just really don't see Trump recovering much from basically the worst 48 hours of his campaign.
 
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TheGoverness said:
Currently, Hillary is leading nationally by a 6.5 point lead nationwide on RCP. On Five Thirty Eight, Hillary has whopping 83.4% chance of winning the election, compared to Trump's meager 16.6% chance of winning.

So you can call it biased media/polling if you wish, but I just really don't see Trump recovering much from basically the worst 48 hours of his campaign.
Click to expand...

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation broadcast this morning there is an 11% lead in her favor and Trump is dumpward bound
 
EvaPeron said:
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.

Together they equate to 274 Electoral Votes


I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.
Click to expand...

538 right now is calling IA, NV, CO and OH, as well as FL and NC, in Hillarys favor. According to them she's winning CO by about 6%.

So basically what you're saying is that he needs to pick up every single state that is even remotely possibly for him to pick up and not lose a single state that he has, and he can win.

What ever makes you sleep better.
 
TheGoverness said:
Currently, Hillary is leading nationally by a 6.5 point lead nationwide on RCP. On Five Thirty Eight, Hillary has whopping 83.4% chance of winning the election, compared to Trump's meager 16.6% chance of winning.

So you can call it biased media/polling if you wish, but I just really don't see Trump recovering much from basically the worst 48 hours of his campaign.
Click to expand...


Legs.

If it has legs.....

Mr Trump has been behind Teflon so fay, but it appears that single, all failing scratch has appeared. Day one, 36 high ranking Republicans drop their support, Majority leader Ryan announces he will not work for nor support Trump and is calling on Republicans to surrender the White House to block a Clinton presidency.

Further, he failed to get a post debate bounce.

It appears to have legs, and once that happens the dissent spreads in the background like a virus.
 
EvaPeron said:
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.

Together they equate to 274 Electoral Votes


I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.
Click to expand...

The above exercise in magical thinking has been brought to you by Breitbart, InfoWars, and Donald "It-was-just-locker-room-talk" Trump.

FYI, I suggest you wait until the new post-debate polls come out - it's not going to be pretty. Oh, wait, I forgot - y'all don't believe in polls unless they say exactly what you want them to say! Perhaps you should ask Karl Rove how that turned out in 2012....
 
EvaPeron said:
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.

Together they equate to 274 Electoral Votes


I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.
Click to expand...

Hillary only needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota to win. She can even afford to lose one of those states M states. She'll def get PA and one of the M states, probably both.

Trump NEEDS, Florida and North Carolina just to be IN PLAY! If he loses either of those, it's game over! On top of THAT! He'll have to grab two or three more states from Clinton, at least just to win! Namely those would be Arizona and and two of the M states listed above. She has a much easier shot at winning the whole thing.
 
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EvaPeron said:
I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.
Click to expand...

Given the Donald's insulting persona, I'm not sure this is a good colloquialism for you to be using.
Believe what you want, yes Trump could win, but it is highly unlikely.
 
TheGoverness said:
Currently, Hillary is leading nationally by a 6.5 point lead on RCP. On Five Thirty Eight, Hillary has whopping 83.4% chance of winning the election, compared to Trump's meager 16.6% chance of winning.

So you can call it biased media/polling if you wish, but I just really don't see Trump recovering much from basically the worst 48 hours of his campaign.
Click to expand...

Hey! You know better than to reference Nate Silver and his 538 blog! He's a left-wing shill who skews everything! Besides, when was the last time he was right about anything ever????
 
EvaPeron said:
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.
Click to expand...
"If Trump wins a bunch of swing states, he can still win this thing!!!" That seems kind of obvious. And rather unlikely.

Clinton is favored to win CO, NV, PA, IA, FL, NC, OH. In almost all of those states, she is trending up, and Trump is trending down.

Meanwhile, the Republican party is abandoning Trump, and waiting for the other shoe to drop. His polling with minorities is abysmal, he is losing not just undecided women but Republican women as well.

And now, Trumpeters are threatening to vote for Trump, but against Republican down tickets.

Last but not least, Clinton has a sizeable ground game in swing states, and is about to unleash $150 million in ads in those states. Trump has nothing on the ground and next to no ad buys -- they even cancelled a bunch of ads in swing states.

It's over.
 
EvaPeron said:
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.
Click to expand...

I would not be too sure. A few of these states have in low single digit leads. Take Texas.. he is only up 7 and that was before his *****gate. In South Carolina, he is up by 4... about within the margin of error... and again before *****gate.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA
Click to expand...

No. Last poll in GA was 4% ahead within the margin of error and before *****gate. Last poll out of Arizona had Clinton ahead by 2. And the shocker is Iowa, only up by 4 before *****gate. All are within Clintons striking distance.

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win
Click to expand...

NV has switched from Trump to Clinton in the latest polls. Colorado is a special one... not many polls coming out of there for some reason. One poll has him tied, other has Clinton ahead by 11. But all before *****gate. Ohio is an interesting one. Been a leaning Trump for a while, but has now moved to a Toss up because the latest polls put Clinton ahead (within margin of error of course).

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.
Click to expand...

I think NC is out of reach for Trump, and Florida is slowly slipping as well. All polls were before *****gate, even most of those (state wise) that have been released today. Look at NC poll from Highpoint about North Carolina.. Clinton +1, but taken between 1 - 6th.. just missing out on most of the *****gate action.

Still 28 days to go, and lots can happen, but Trump needs something really bad to happen to Clinton to be able to turn this... *****gate could be the scandal that makes the cup overflow for Trump.
 
Glen Contrarian said:
The above exercise in magical thinking has been brought to you by Breitbart, InfoWars, and Donald "It-was-just-locker-room-talk" Trump.

FYI, I suggest you wait until the new post-debate polls come out - it's not going to be pretty. Oh, wait, I forgot - y'all don't believe in polls unless they say exactly what you want them to say! Perhaps you should ask Karl Rove how that turned out in 2012....
Click to expand...


Good one!
 
EvaPeron said:
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.

Together they equate to 274 Electoral Votes


I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.
Click to expand...



I stopped reading when I noticed there are no citations and this whole thread is based on what you imagine to be true.

Somehow that really fits with the Trump campaign
 
Five Thirty Eight has only been around since 2008. Now granted, they do have a good record of prediction, even their own models have been all over with regards to who will win and lose.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast
I'm not saying they will be wrong but what I am saying is that when you look out how they break down the states, they believe that IA, NV, CO, OH, NC and FL will go to Hillary.

Their polls will change as we move into these next three weeks. And the polling since the debate is starting to reflect a new trend - yet again. My bet is that this time next week the 538 chances will be more aligned with Hillary having just a slight lead over all.

This is an election like no other and I simply do not feel that anyone should put the odds of Hillary winning this election at 83.4%. This may be the one year that Silver shakes his head and reevaluates his model.
 
Jetboogieman said:
All Trump has to do to win is morph into a different person.
Click to expand...

And change his name to Reagan, and shut up

I am still amazed we are where we are. Anyone could see that top beat Hilary all you needed was a good looking candidate who didn't sound too stupid and hasn't been a pervert...

AND THEY BLEW THAT!
 
roughdraft274 said:
538 right now is calling IA, NV, CO and OH, as well as FL and NC, in Hillarys favor. According to them she's winning CO by about 6%.

So basically what you're saying is that he needs to pick up every single state that is even remotely possibly for him to pick up and not lose a single state that he has, and he can win.

What ever makes you sleep better.
Click to expand...

He'd need to do some real miracle-working for that to happen.

Only thing Trump can bank on now is for Wikileaks to release something HUGE, like Hillary Clinton is actually a Illuminati lizard demon in a plot to destroy humanity.
 
radioman said:
Given the Donald's insulting persona, I'm not sure this is a good colloquialism for you to be using.
Believe what you want, yes Trump could win, but it is highly unlikely.
Click to expand...

OMG - seriously. People really need to get over the politically correct comments. "the fat lady singing" doesn't refer to any one fat lady - it just refers to affluent ladies who like opera LOL.

Is this one of those times that someone has to have their pillow and go into their safe space?
 
EvaPeron said:
This is an election like no other and I simply do not feel that anyone should put the odds of Hillary winning this election at 83.4%. This may be the one year that Silver shakes his head and reevaluates his model.
Click to expand...

Hillary's chance of winning wasn't always at 83%. Donald Trump used to have a 39% chance of winning on 538, and it was steadily going up. That is, until the video of Trump's lewd comments was leaked. Then his chances of winning started dropping like the bass.
 
Fearandloathing said:
And change his name to Reagan, and shut up

I am still amazed we are where we are. Anyone could see that top beat Hilary all you needed was a good looking candidate who didn't sound too stupid and hasn't been a pervert...

AND THEY BLEW THAT!
Click to expand...

I was saying to a friend the other day, we were so lucky last election, I was never a big fan of the three of them (I wish Layton had still been alive) but I had every confidence that all three of them were capable enough to do the job.

In the case of the states... How it came to this... As you quite rightly said is amazing.

But as Rick Mercer said the other day, it could happen here, look at that one chick trying to get the conservative leadership, calling for tests to see how "Canadian" immigrants are.

I find that offensive as ****.
 
There is one way for him to win... Clinton voters stay home because they think that it is done. Hence the democratic turnout will be low while Trump turns out his supporters. This would be a massive problem for the democrats as it would also mean they wont gain senate seats and such.
 
Fearandloathing said:
I stopped reading when I noticed there are no citations and this whole thread is based on what you imagine to be true.

Somehow that really fits with the Trump campaign
Click to expand...

My post was really about my thoughts based on my own research:

Fox News Electoral Map

the link above is my starting point and my conclusion is derived from the most recent polls available.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton IOWA
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ARIZONA
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest Election Polls NORTH CAROLINA
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein OHIO
alclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html NEVADA
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html COLORADO
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html FLORIDA
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-georgia-president-trump-vs-clinton GEORGIA
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/georgia-election-forecast.html GEORGIA
 
PeteEU said:
I would not be too sure. A few of these states have in low single digit leads. Take Texas.. he is only up 7 and that was before his *****gate. In South Carolina, he is up by 4... about within the margin of error... and again before *****gate.



No. Last poll in GA was 4% ahead within the margin of error and before *****gate. Last poll out of Arizona had Clinton ahead by 2. And the shocker is Iowa, only up by 4 before *****gate. All are within Clintons striking distance.



NV has switched from Trump to Clinton in the latest polls. Colorado is a special one... not many polls coming out of there for some reason. One poll has him tied, other has Clinton ahead by 11. But all before *****gate. Ohio is an interesting one. Been a leaning Trump for a while, but has now moved to a Toss up because the latest polls put Clinton ahead (within margin of error of course).



I think NC is out of reach for Trump, and Florida is slowly slipping as well. All polls were before *****gate, even most of those (state wise) that have been released today. Look at NC poll from Highpoint about North Carolina.. Clinton +1, but taken between 1 - 6th.. just missing out on most of the *****gate action.

Still 28 days to go, and lots can happen, but Trump needs something really bad to happen to Clinton to be able to turn this... *****gate could be the scandal that makes the cup overflow for Trump.
Click to expand...

lol. they are too high in CO to worry about polls.

But anyway, I have Trump's most favorable outcome of him winning, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MN, NH, IA. I think that's the only way he gets to 271. He HAS to HAS to win all these states. There is No margin of error. Even if he loses NH. He loses.
 
Jetboogieman said:
I was saying to a friend the other day, we were so lucky last election, I was never a big fan of the three of them (I wish Layton had still been alive) but I had every confidence that all three of them were capable enough to do the job.

In the case of the states... How it came to this... As you quite rightly said is amazing.

But as Rick Mercer said the other day, it could happen here, look at that one chick trying to get the conservative leadership, calling for tests to see how "Canadian" immigrants are.

I find that offensive as ****.
Click to expand...



I have come to see Canadian "Conservatism" offensive. They don't seem to realize they lost BECAUSE of these stances, not because Justin has nice hair. I worked on the campaign, and for me there was a sense voters were putting their untested faith in Trudeau because of the offensiveness of the campaign. Here in Vancouver where the city is licensing cannabis stores, there has been a sense of suddenly being set free from bondage of 18th century thinking.

I hope her campaign does very well, I hope she wins in fact, it will guarantee they won't get near the $ for decades. Just before the election, a neighbor and sometimes poster here posted "Fine, then, let them all in and they will rape your women."

That attitude has gone a long way in my effort to understand residential schools and how such a horror could be perpetrated unknown to most Canadians into the 70's. If there is ONE thing I want to see before I die is how the hell that "holocaust" happened and how we make sure it never happens again.

There will be no testing of immigrants so long as I'm alive. We have learned we need to kill that **** before it spreads. I think I will be paying closer attention to their race, maybe join and really screw things up for them. Membership has its priviliges! **** it, I am pushing 70, retired without much else to do,, I'd love to screw with their heads ...
 
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