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All Trump Needs To Do to WIN is....


You said that CO is currently a tie and the average has Clinton up by 7%.

Eva, you can't take an outlying poll in every state and use that to conclude that it's a close race. That's not how any of this works. As soon as you start picking polls by which one makes you feel good you have left the land of "reality" and are going in to "dream land". Out of a hundred polls, yes you are going to be able to grab a few out-liars and make it seem very close. But that's just not how it works. Like I said, the election isn't over til every vote is counted, but when 538 has Clinton at 80%, they are giving you a very conservative estimate. The other poll aggregates being done give Clinton anywhere from 90 to 95%. But I agree with 538 that you have to be conservative on this cause anything could happen. I think 80% is plenty fair, because Trump is in deep ****. The only way you are going to see that 538 number go in trumps favor is if you see a majority of the polling turning in his favor, not just a single out-liar in a few states.
 
There is one way for him to win... Clinton voters stay home because they think that it is done. Hence the democratic turnout will be low while Trump turns out his supporters. This would be a massive problem for the democrats as it would also mean they wont gain senate seats and such.

There are so many things that can happen between now and the 8th so that's why I say that no one should be predicting a landslide win for Hillary. She may win but she may not win also.
 
You said that CO is currently a tie and the average has Clinton up by 7%.

Eva, you can't take an outlying poll in every state and use that to conclude that it's a close race. That's not how any of this works. As soon as you start picking polls by which one makes you feel good you have left the land of "reality" and are going in to "dream land". Out of a hundred polls, yes you are going to be able to grab a few out-liars and make it seem very close. But that's just not how it works. Like I said, the election isn't over til every vote is counted, but when 538 has Clinton at 80%, they are giving you a very conservative estimate. The other poll aggregates being done give Clinton anywhere from 90 to 95%. But I agree with 538 that you have to be conservative on this cause anything could happen. I think 80% is plenty fair, because Trump is in deep ****. The only way you are going to see that 538 number go in trumps favor is if you see a majority of the polling turning in his favor, not just a single out-liar in a few states.

My point was simply to say that it isn't over yet. New polls coming in are leaning to a closer race yet again. If you don't like what I've shown in the links then find other recent polling data. What I've shown is not cherry picked, it is the most recent polls that I can find for these states.

The truth is polling is not perfect by any means. I simply do not see how 538 thinks that they can currently predict an 83 percent win for Hillary.
 
Hillary's chance of winning wasn't always at 83%. Donald Trump used to have a 39% chance of winning on 538, and it was steadily going up. That is, until the video of Trump's lewd comments was leaked. Then his chances of winning started dropping like the bass.

They started dropping in less than four days. And the debate as most believe reversed that. Just my two cents :)
 
My point was simply to say that it isn't over yet. New polls coming in are leaning to a closer race yet again. If you don't like what I've shown in the links then find other recent polling data. What I've shown is not cherry picked, it is the most recent polls that I can find for these states.

The truth is polling is not perfect by any means. I simply do not see how 538 thinks that they can currently predict an 83 percent win for Hillary.
Of course it's not over yet. That's why they have it at around 80%. 80% isn't the same as "it's over".

83% is crazy? Because I'm pretty sure no one has ever come back by a 6%+national polling margin at this point out, and the list of states you are listing that you think Trump can win includes a CO which is 7% in Clintons favor on average.

What % would you put on all of this? Do you honestly think this race is close to 50/50? Because at this point that's delusional thinking. Polling isn't perfect, but 538 has obviously shown that it can get pretty damn close.
 
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.

Together they equate to 274 Electoral Votes


I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.
Alright - I understand your sentiments here, and have two comments:

1] Great work in doing all the math! You put a lot of effort and thought here, and yes crunching the EV votes is the way to go!

2] But here's what I believe you're missing in statistical terms.

The formula for determining the likely hood of multiple events occurring of a binary nature, is the following:

n^2

Where n = the number of events, and the exponent ('2') is the number of possibilities - which in this case is two possibilities (Trump or Clinton).

So if we were to accept all your analysis above, you have 5 events (5 toss-up states), and the probability of 5 toss-ups all going in one direction (for Trump) is:

n^2 = 5^2 = 32

So in purely statistical terms, Trump's chance to prevail in all of 5 toss ups is 1 in 32, or around 3%.

Conversely, HRC has a 97% chance of getting 1 of the 5 toss-ups from Trump.

Increase the value of n by adding more toss-up states, and the odds change to dramatically higher (along an exponential curve).

I hope I didn't alienate you with the stats, but I think it's important, and it describes well why things of a "run the table" nature occur so infrequently in life; think along the lines of pitching a perfect ball game, the lotto, picking a championship team before the season starts, making every red light on the way to work, etc.
 
I have come to see Canadian "Conservatism" offensive. They don't seem to realize they lost BECAUSE of these stances, not because Justin has nice hair. I worked on the campaign, and for me there was a sense voters were putting their untested faith in Trudeau because of the offensiveness of the campaign. Here in Vancouver where the city is licensing cannabis stores, there has been a sense of suddenly being set free from bondage of 18th century thinking.

I hope her campaign does very well, I hope she wins in fact, it will guarantee they won't get near the $ for decades. Just before the election, a neighbor and sometimes poster here posted "Fine, then, let them all in and they will rape your women."

That attitude has gone a long way in my effort to understand residential schools and how such a horror could be perpetrated unknown to most Canadians into the 70's. If there is ONE thing I want to see before I die is how the hell that "holocaust" happened and how we make sure it never happens again.

There will be no testing of immigrants so long as I'm alive. We have learned we need to kill that **** before it spreads. I think I will be paying closer attention to their race, maybe join and really screw things up for them. Membership has its priviliges! **** it, I am pushing 70, retired without much else to do,, I'd love to screw with their heads ...

The one thing about the whole "test" thing I find ludicrous is that I've lived all overt his country, a BCer is not like an Albertan, a Quebecer is not like an Ontarian... Obviously, even a Nova Scotian is pretty far removed from a Newfoundlander, hell, a Haligonian isn't even like a Cape Bretenor, so how does someone determine how "Canadian" someone is.

Canada is the epitome of an immigrant nation and is better off for it, each province Distinct, shaped by immigration and migration.

Go for it dude, I'll be cheering for yah!
 
Currently, Hillary is leading nationally by a 6.5 point lead on RCP. On Five Thirty Eight, Hillary has whopping 83.4% chance of winning the election, compared to Trump's meager 16.6% chance of winning.

So you can call it biased media/polling if you wish, but I just really don't see Trump recovering much from basically the worst 48 hours of his campaign.

These numbers are consistent with my long-held view: the American voters are too stupid to realize that this election cycle will determine if the US survives or becomes a one-party, third-world, crime-ridden, insolvent, shadow of its glorious itself.

There was a reason why women were never allowed into the chief's big tent where the tribe elders would discuss how to assure survival. Today, they binge watch Bravo and still believe they are well informed voters.

So, hello Hillary. Good-bye the USA.
 
These numbers are consistent with my long-held view: the American voters are too stupid to realize that this election cycle will determine if the US survives or becomes a one-party, third-world, crime-ridden, insolvent, shadow of its glorious itself.

Which is why most aren't voting for Donald Trump.

There was a reason why women were never allowed into the chief's big tent where the tribe elders would discuss how to assure survival. Today, they binge watch Bravo and still believe they are well informed voters.

Really dude? Why you gotta make such a sexist comment like that?
 
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These numbers are consistent with my long-held view: the American voters are too stupid to realize that this election cycle will determine if the US survives or becomes a one-party, third-world, crime-ridden, insolvent, shadow of its glorious itself.
Yaay, more hyperbole

Keeping in mind that many on the left can indulge in similar hyperbole:

Despite the devastation Trump is wreaking on the GOP, the reality is that we are still in a two-party system, and will be in a two-party system for many years to come.

We are a long, long, long way off from being anything like a third world nation.

Crime has in fact been falling for decades. Even this year, it is basically only going up in a handful of big cities.

Not only are we a long way off from being "insolvent," if Trump's plans became real we'd be looking at record deficits and trillions added to the debt, plus a nice juicy recession courtesy of his protectionist policies.


There was a reason why women were never allowed into the chief's big tent where the tribe elders would discuss how to assure survival. Today, they binge watch Bravo and still believe they are well informed voters.
Way to seize the moral high ground. High five.
 
OMG - seriously. People really need to get over the politically correct comments. "the fat lady singing" doesn't refer to any one fat lady - it just refers to affluent ladies who like opera LOL.
Just a joke, Eva.


Is this one of those times that someone has to have their pillow and go into their safe space?
Given the non-cherry picked polling info, Trumpsters are the ones who are gonna need a safe space on November 9th.
 
Despite the devastation Trump is wreaking on the GOP, the reality is that we are still in a two-party system, and will be in a two-party system for many years to come.

That sentence alone proves how totally corrupt your "system" is and how brainwashed you Americans are. The RINO party is nothing more than Democrats light pretending to be the "opposition party" - a party which after the 2014 victory promptly delivered to Obama everything he wanted and some. This happened right after the naive American voters gave the RINO's a solid majority in Congress.

There is no such system as " a two-party system". Yours is a result of the ruling class bootlickers dividing themselves into two wings and playing together to fool the stupid voters into believing that they really have choices other than on totally fringe issues like prayers in schools, gay marriage, burning the flag and crap like that. And even that is usually decided by the courts.

The fundamentals - illegal immigrants flooding, manufacturing jobs leaving, the US playing a world cop, and deficit spending - are never debated by your two fake globalist parties. When a Bush hugs a Clinton and conspires against a Republican candidate, you know you have a problem.

So please don't insult me with your naive Civics 101, fifth-grade lectures about your system. Your system belongs to the few crooks like Hillary who deliver 250,000-dollar speeches to Goldman Sachs to assure them that what they say publicly and privately are two different things.

What a system.
 
That sentence alone proves how totally corrupt your "system" is and how brainwashed you Americans are. The RINO party is nothing more than Democrats light pretending to be the "opposition party"....
Sure. If you ignore policy differences in:

• Taxes
• Civil rights (including minority rights, gay rights, fighting racism etc)
• Education
• Abortion
• Infrastructure spending
• Gun control
• Environment
• The validity of regulation
• Energy policy
• Dealing with poverty
• Safety nets
• Health care
• Family medical leave
• Monetary policy
• Fiscal policy
• Drug policy
• How to interpret the Constitution
• Immigration / how to handle unauthorized immigration
• Emphasizing federal/central government over state and local governments
• The basic size, scope and function of government

Certainly, there is some overlap on some topics. At the same time, there are significant differences not just between parties, but within the parties themselves (albeit less in the Republican party, which has spent years driving away moderates).

E.g. the Democratic party has been split for many years over free trade. The Republican party has been primarily in favor of free trade, but also has paroxysms of protectionism. Foreign policy is in a similar condition, with both parties having some hawks, while the Democrats also have an anti-war wing, and the Republicans have an isolationist wing. Activists in both parties are now pushing for prison reform; both parties generally support the EITC.

Contrary to your shrieks of agony, it is actually a good thing for the parties to occasionally agree, work together, compromise. In fact, the lack of cooperation due to policy differences is downright harmful right now.


a party which after the 2014 victory promptly delivered to Obama everything he wanted and some. This happened right after the naive American voters gave the RINO's a solid majority in Congress.
Have you lost your mind?

The obstructionism exhibited by Congressional Republicans over the past 8 years is off the scale. They did everything they could to stop health care reform; they preferred to shut down government altogether rather than authorize borrowing for spending they already approved; they did everything possible to avoid confirming judicial appointments, including to the SCOTUS... the list goes on. Republicans have an instant knee-jerk reaction of opposition to anything Obama proposes, even when it's something Republicans themselves have stated they support (e.g. switching Social Security COLA adjustments to chained CPI).

Spare us your nonsensical propaganda.


When a Bush hugs a Clinton and conspires against a Republican candidate, you know you have a problem.
That problem is that Trump is a demagogue who is profoundly unfit to be President.

And in case you somehow failed to notice, this type of reaction by members of a party against its own candidate is unprecedented. The closest analogue is Teddy Roosevelt's 3rd party run, over 100 years ago.

In ordinary circumstances, however, ex-Presidents usually get along in part because of a shared experience, and in part because they respect a system that allows for a peaceful transfer of power.


So please don't insult me with your naive Civics 101....
You mean, I should forget obvious facts about party divisions and US history and rampant and growing partisan differences, so I share your deliberate ignorance? Pass.
 
Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Conservative so volatile only the most committed right wingers won't abandon him locks up far right states, therefore ___________________________________________________.





I don't see how anything but 'duh' goes in the blank.
 
The one thing about the whole "test" thing I find ludicrous is that I've lived all overt his country, a BCer is not like an Albertan, a Quebecer is not like an Ontarian... Obviously, even a Nova Scotian is pretty far removed from a Newfoundlander, hell, a Haligonian isn't even like a Cape Bretenor, so how does someone determine how "Canadian" someone is.

Canada is the epitome of an immigrant nation and is better off for it, each province Distinct, shaped by immigration and migration.

Go for it dude, I'll be cheering for yah!

By definition Canada is NOT a nation. We are an experiment in "nation building" I recall sitting through the First Minister's conference where the ten premiers and Trudeau got along splendidly UNTIL that is, they started talking about either energy or culture.

Whatever socialist worm thought this up, wait it sounds more like a socialists answer to a conservatives zeno-phobia, is NOT a Canadian, doesn't know how we came into being nor who to thank for what we have.

You are very dead on when you say we are different, one of the reasons "Canadian" has defied description so far. Having said that I as a BC'er have more in common with a Newfoundlander than an Albertan, and I can prove that through several friends I have there.

My definition of "Canadian" is attitude.

The conservatives can press for all they want, they will not see the inside of government again in my lifetime unless someone gets shot. The Canadian people are finding out about how those arrogant raped the citizenry of this country. If there was a way to cause pain to people they found it. When I was hit with a "clawback" on my CPP I thought I was a rare one-of, only to find out they nailed some 6,000 seniors and every bit of illegal.

Canada is a a collection of peoples and always has been. Before Europeans came there were over 500 distinct societies, living in peace [for the most part]. The first settlers who came here adopted native ways to survive, much of which remains in our culture: pot luck dinners [Potlach or Pot'l och], maple syrup and even Thanksgiving. My ancestors were welcomed here, on my mother's side barely escaping the Nazi's. And each new wave has triggered the same **** from the same sort of people. When we said OK, we'll take in some Jews, they hollered from the hill tops "they'll cheat you and kill you". When we took in Hungarians in the 1950's it was the same, "they" are all commies and will kill our democracy. The the Vietnam draft dodgers came they cried "they're traitors, send them back."

Not one bit of it has ever come true. My reply is 'what if someone said that when your ancestors came?"

For the record we started taking in the "unwanted" of the world in the early 1800's. In one's and two's, sometimes by row boat, and even rafts, the "negroes" of escaped slavery who came and were welcomed...THAT I says is Canadian!

In all of that, we have built the finest nation on the face of the earth, one of the most liked and respected world wide, feared by those who have fought us, and loved by the new immigrants who come.

A quick story: I had a very bad accident and went to hospital some years ago. As they thought I had had a heart attack I had to stay nine hours and take a cab home from North Vancouver's Hospital to Kitsilano, about a $50 ride. The driver wore a turban in the true Sikh fashion and so I asked him about coming here, why Canada etc.

He said this: "I came here because here I can speak to you, in my land it is forbidden. Indian is where I was born, my home is Canada. I love Canada, I would die for her!"

I had to ask myself if I knew anyone who was born here who could honestly say that.

That's Canada. I don't give a **** what Canadian conservatives want, for what they want they just have to move a few miles south, and I will help them pack.
 
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.

Together they equate to 274 Electoral Votes


I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.

The Trump ship is going down, no doubt about it. When the rats start jumping in the water and swimming, that's a real tip off. Although there is a segment of America that is adverse to prolonged focus in front of non-fiction books, I believe such still do understand crass, loutish, and self-serving behavior, at least when it is rubbed in their face. That is probably what has finished the Donald, not his zany ideas on economics, nor his grade school approach to foreign affairs, but his admission of grabbing at women's crotches, and throwing his slobbering libido on reluctant victims, and cheating and bullying those around him who lacked the power to put up a good defense. Even if one does not know where Aleppo is, or thinks Keynes is the place you can get new house keys, those sorts of behaviors are clear to all.
 
lol. they are too high in CO to worry about polls.

But anyway, I have Trump's most favorable outcome of him winning, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MN, NH, IA. I think that's the only way he gets to 271. He HAS to HAS to win all these states. There is No margin of error. Even if he loses NH. He loses.

The RCP average here in NH has Clinton with a 6.7 point lead. Trump won't win NH.
 
These numbers are consistent with my long-held view: the American voters are too stupid to realize that this election cycle will determine if the US survives or becomes a one-party, third-world, crime-ridden, insolvent, shadow of its glorious itself.

There was a reason why women were never allowed into the chief's big tent where the tribe elders would discuss how to assure survival. Today, they binge watch Bravo and still believe they are well informed voters.

So, hello Hillary. Good-bye the USA.

Yes, you're correct about the stupidity of American voters. Look how many of them supported that con man Donald Trump in the primary instead of letting the smart people put up a real candidate to oppose Clinton.

Good bye USA? What country are you moving to?
 
My point was simply to say that it isn't over yet. New polls coming in are leaning to a closer race yet again. If you don't like what I've shown in the links then find other recent polling data. What I've shown is not cherry picked, it is the most recent polls that I can find for these states.

The truth is polling is not perfect by any means. I simply do not see how 538 thinks that they can currently predict an 83 percent win for Hillary.

Then go read up on how 538 works, rather than wishing it were wrong. But saying "83 percent, wow that's a pretty high number, that can't be right" does't really mean anything.
 
These numbers are consistent with my long-held view: the American voters are too stupid to realize that this election cycle will determine if the US survives or becomes a one-party, third-world, crime-ridden, insolvent, shadow of its glorious itself.

There was a reason why women were never allowed into the chief's big tent where the tribe elders would discuss how to assure survival. Today, they binge watch Bravo and still believe they are well informed voters.

So, hello Hillary. Good-bye the USA.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Democrat will be the end of the Republic. Heard it for nearly 30 years. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. Next.
 
Anyone who watches the news hears the gloom and doom of the Trump campaign from the very biased media. However, their statements are very far from the truth.

Trump has locked up support in red states TX, LA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK, SC, KY, WV, IN, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT and AK.

Recent polling suggests he is winning in IA, AZ, GA

NV, CO, and OH are so close in recent polling that suggests a tie or within the margin of error for a win

FL and NC are with recent polling only 2 - 3 points shown in Hillary's favor - but within the margin of error.

Together they equate to 274 Electoral Votes


I just wanted to put this out there because while some on this site and all in the media want to say the fat lady has sung, some of us believe she hasn't even gotten started yet. 29 days and counting.

What Trump needs to do to win is to go back in time and not run in the first place.

It's not going to be close in the end. Come November, it's going to be a blow out and we're going to be stuck with Clinton as President because the GOP is full of incompetents.
 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Democrat will be the end of the Republic. Heard it for nearly 30 years. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. Next.[/QUOTE

Yes, they will.

"Ethnic cleansing used to be a bad thing. But in America, when it happens to white people, it's called progress and the "new face of California."

The town of Santa Ana has been almost 100% purged of white people. They were pushed out not by tanks and machine guns, but by a massive influx of people speaking a different language and bearing a different culture who expected everyone to adapt to their norms.

Today Santa Ana is nearly 80% Hispanic and less than 10% white. We have a city in America that now demographically perfectly mirrors many cities in Mexico."

That is how "America" will end up dying. The decomposition has already started and the stench is awful from the invading scum. Elect Hillary and her open borders will nail your coffin shut.
 
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