Some bright light of the republitarian variety suggests that budget deficits are just the difference between what Congress planned to spend (I think he meant "budgeted") and what was actually spent. I guess that would be the kind of explanation you'd give a 3rd grader but it's pretty simplistic (this "light" also ridiculed people for not knowing the difference between debt and deficits but didn't provide his own interpretation which was disappointing). In fact, the deficits (or surpluses such as the four we had from FY1998 through FY2001) are actually factored in when Congress passes its budgets. I've copied a few lines from one of the many fine charts that Christopher Chantrill at usgovernmentspending.com (Chantrill is a frequent contributor to
American Thinker so no liberal, he). These numbers may not line up well as they come from a chart:
FY2011(est) FY2012(est) FY2013(est) FY2014(est) FY2015(est) FY2016(est) 2015 ACTUAL
+] Total Spending: 4,385.5 4,189.8 4,059.9 3,908.2 3,901.0 3,758.6 3,687.6
[+] Federal Deficit 751.9 606.7 609.7 576.5 563.6 582.5 438.9
[+] Gross Public Debt 18,917.2 19,775.5 19,426.5 19,147.8 18,713.5 18,627.6 18,117.9
So, the first thing to note is that when Congress passes these budgets they are knowingly spending more than they expect revenues to cover. The next thing to note is the disconnect between the estimated deficits/debt to the actual 2015 amount for each, especially for the debt. Note that debt in 2012 it was actually estimated to hit nearly $19.8T but it never got that high. In fact, in just the last year the estimated debt for FY2015 had been $18.7T but came in at a much lower $18.1T. For 2015 the budget estimate was for $3.9T (see above) spending and $3.25T revenue. Revenue came in almost exactly that but spending amounted to only $3.69T or $210B less than estimated. The actual deficit was $125B below estimate. I'm not sure what accounts for that $85B difference in those last two numbers.
So the annual deficit (surplus) is the
actual difference between government revenue and government spending. It can often be quite different from what Congress planned and, fortunately, the deficits have been coming in well below estimates. In fact, I ran across an interesting tidbit for next year's estimated GDP as it relates to our current debt level. GDP 2016 is expected to hit $18.8T** while out current debt has been holding steadily (actually slightly dropping) below $18.2T. If this holds up, next year will be the first year since 2012 that the debt will be
below 100% GDP. Of course, that would all fall apart if republicans regain control of the presidency and hold Congress. There'll be wars everywehre and huge unfunded military spending and we'll be right back into that deep downward fiscal and economic spiral that they always create and leave for a democrat to clean up.
*
http://www.usfederalbudget.us/federal_budget
**
Government Revenue Details: Federal State Local for 2016 - Charts
