Baby it's cold outside!

Infinite Chaos · Jan 23, 2020

London and Washington have locked horns over trade after the US threatened to impose tariffs on UK car exports and Britain said it would give precedence to a commerce deal with the EU. Link.

Brexit happens next week and the first hint of how cold and hostile it may be out there is happening as our supposed new "bestie" has threatened to hit us with tariffs if we dare to try and tax huge American IT companies who pay incredibly little in tax here in the UK.

So.. it's quietly being hinted (while Boris thumps the lectern and tells us all to jump off that cliff together) that we might just seek to prioritise a trade deal with the EU first.... All this after Sajid David told business last week "you've had 3 years to prepare, we are NOT aligning to EU standards after we leave the EU...."

And there was me, starting to believe the hype that Brexit would be a piece of p**s!" :lamo

PeteEU · Jan 23, 2020

The EU is also threatening sanctions if Boris does not implement the border down the Irish Sea.

The irony with Sajid Javid, is that this must mean that ALL regulations need to be redone to make sure that they do not meet EU standards in any way...

Sent from my Honor 8X

Infinite Chaos · Jan 23, 2020

PeteEU said:
The EU is also threatening sanctions if Boris does not implement the border down the Irish Sea.

The irony with Sajid Javid, is that this must mean that ALL regulations need to be redone to make sure that they do not meet EU standards in any way...

Sent from my Honor 8X

Not necessarily, just means certain manufacturers won't be required to align with EU standards

Did you see that meanwhile, France may knuckle under and ignore the tax loopholes the mega IT companies are using to avoid paying fair tax?.

Chagos · Jan 23, 2020

Infinite Chaos said:
Not necessarily, just means certain manufacturers won't be required to align with EU standards

Did you see that meanwhile, France may knuckle under and ignore the tax loopholes the mega IT companies are using to avoid paying fair tax?.

It's a free-for-all initiated by the WH clown.

The free-for-all being on the European side in that Brussels' "von der Leyen" is threatening sanctions on anyone not producing goods by EU "green" standards, while making a show of confidence that an US-EU FTA won't be long in the making (thus avoiding any US import taxes on cars that the clown is otherwise threatening).

Meanwhile Macron did a solo with that tax effort of his and the EU was not at all pleased (IOW "we all do it or nobody does, so let's speak with one voice (muhahahaha-----------my edit)".

Back to the old army motto of "when in danger or in doubt, shout and scream and chase about".

PeteEU · Jan 23, 2020

Infinite Chaos said:
Not necessarily, just means certain manufacturers won't be required to align with EU standards

Which means they wont be able to sell to the EU.. and around the world in many cases... Guess that allowing more rat **** in pork pies is a good thing?

Did you see that meanwhile, France may knuckle under and ignore the tax loopholes the mega IT companies are using to avoid paying fair tax?.

Nope.

Infinite Chaos · Jan 24, 2020

Chagos said:
It's a free-for-all initiated by the WH clown.

The free-for-all being on the European side in that Brussels' "von der Leyen" is threatening sanctions on anyone not producing goods by EU "green" standards, while making a show of confidence that an US-EU FTA won't be long in the making (thus avoiding any US import taxes on cars that the clown is otherwise threatening).

Meanwhile Macron did a solo with that tax effort of his and the EU was not at all pleased (IOW "we all do it or nobody does, so let's speak with one voice (muhahahaha-----------my edit)".

Back to the old army motto of "when in danger or in doubt, shout and scream and chase about".

A digital tax deal agreed between the UK and the US - the story is behind an FT paywall so I can't report more detail yet. The fact no other papers have reports in the 10 hours since makes me think it's not really set in stone yet.

PeteEU said:
~ Guess that allowing more rat **** in pork pies is a good thing?

Nope.

PeteEU · Jan 24, 2020

Infinite Chaos said:
A digital tax deal agreed between the UK and the US - the story is behind an FT paywall so I can't report more detail yet. The fact no other papers have reports in the 10 hours since makes me think it's not really set in stone yet.

Nope.

Nothing has been agreed with the US..because they cant. They have to wait at least to the 1st February and no deal will be active before the 1st of January 2021 at the earliest.

Sent from my Honor 8X

Infinite Chaos · Jan 24, 2020

PeteEU said:
~ because they cant ~

Well aware - nothing can be done until we have actually jumped off that cliff next week.

PeteEU · Jan 24, 2020

Infinite Chaos said:
Well aware - nothing can be done until we have actually jumped off that cliff next week.

Not even sure the UK can sign agreements before 2021.... main problem is that most countries wont want to do an agreement without clarification on the UKs EU relationship and trade agreement.. which wont happen anytime soon.

PeteEU · Jan 25, 2020

UK to use high tariff threat to raise pressure in trade negotiations: The Times - Reuters

Lol the UK will throw high tariffs on stuff... Go right ahead, and see how long the consumer can endure that pain.

Sent from my Honor 8X

Infinite Chaos · Jan 25, 2020

PeteEU said:
UK to use high tariff threat to raise pressure in trade negotiations: The Times - Reuters

Lol the UK will throw high tariffs on stuff... Go right ahead, and see how long the consumer can endure that pain.

Sent from my Honor 8X

I think what we're seeing including the flip-flopping of Sajid David on alignment / non alignment is a roughing out of policy on the hoof.

Nobody has done this before and there will be bumps on the road. It won't be perfect and it won't be easy, I may not like Brexit and what might happen but I still want my govt to not bend over to be America's or the EU's little boy.

PeteEU · Jan 25, 2020

Infinite Chaos said:
I think what we're seeing including the flip-flopping of Sajid David on alignment / non alignment is a roughing out of policy on the hoof.

Nobody has done this before and there will be bumps on the road. It won't be perfect and it won't be easy, I may not like Brexit and what might happen but I still want my govt to not bend over to be America's or the EU's little boy.

Sadly the UK will have to bendover to most major industrial countries. You simply dont have the political or economical influence to bully your way to good deals.

You will even have problems with smaller countries since they dont want to risk existing deals with the EU or USA.

Sent from my Honor 8X

Chagos · Jan 25, 2020

PeteEU said:
UK to use high tariff threat to raise pressure in trade negotiations: The Times - Reuters

Lol the UK will throw high tariffs on stuff... Go right ahead, and see how long the consumer can endure that pain.

Sent from my Honor 8X

Putting ten percent on German cars is going to work really well since it'll mean putting 10 percent on all cars from the EU. One might as well say ALL cars from wherever, unless one thinks that the comparatively small foreign held UK car production is going to satisfy the whole UK market (all providing that the holders of Vauxhall and Mini decide to maintain it).

And thinking that one can pick French cheese all on its own out of the whole EU cheese bundle will at least protect Cheddar and Stilton, eh wot? EU installing same tariffs on UK exports of same won't have much of an impact anyway. I mean who "on the continent", short of being afflicted with a totally perverted palate, eats that stuff anyway?

Manchego, baby, manchego. :mrgreen:

Infinite Chaos · Jan 25, 2020

Chagos said:
Putting ten percent on German cars is going to work really well since it'll mean putting 10 percent on all cars from the EU. One might as well say ALL cars from wherever, unless one thinks that the comparatively small foreign held UK car production is going to satisfy the whole UK market (all providing that the holders of Vauxhall and Mini decide to maintain it).

And thinking that one can pick French cheese all on its own out of the whole EU cheese bundle will at least protect Cheddar and Stilton, eh wot? EU installing same tariffs on UK exports of same won't have much of an impact anyway. I mean who "on the continent", short of being afflicted with a totally perverted palate, eats that stuff anyway?

Manchego, baby, manchego. :mrgreen:

Don't like Manchego... I'm not suddenly going to get nationalist about this but Brexit is going to force people to look really closely at what they buy and how much they can afford. Crazy thing at the moment is even with people tightening belts left right and centre - Brits are spending on pets (and dogs in particular) like there's no tomorrow.
I've lived in countries going through "structural adjustment" and it's not pretty - however some people will do really well and a whole lot will do badly. A small group in the middle will be financially the same as before but the vast majority of the buying market will simply cut down on what they can afford, eat smaller portion sizes and drive less expensive cars.

In Nigeria, less expensive cars meant "Legedes Benz..."

May even be healthier.......

.

PeteEU · Jan 25, 2020

Chagos said:
Putting ten percent on German cars is going to work really well since it'll mean putting 10 percent on all cars from the EU. One might as well say ALL cars from wherever, unless one thinks that the comparatively small foreign held UK car production is going to satisfy the whole UK market (all providing that the holders of Vauxhall and Mini decide to maintain it).

And thinking that one can pick French cheese all on its own out of the whole EU cheese bundle will at least protect Cheddar and Stilton, eh wot? EU installing same tariffs on UK exports of same won't have much of an impact anyway. I mean who "on the continent", short of being afflicted with a totally perverted palate, eats that stuff anyway?

Manchego, baby, manchego. :mrgreen:

If the UK wants to put 10% on German cars, then they have to do it on all cars. The UK is not the EU or US, so they cant pick and choose what WTO rules they want to follow. But most cars for the UK market is made in the UK, so the threat is hollow as hell just like the US threats on EU cars.... it is kinda pathetic. The only cars that might get hit, are expensive luxury cars and frankly who cares if your Porsche costs a few thousand extra.. once you are in that price range anyways, money aint exactly a factor.

PeteEU · Jan 25, 2020

Infinite Chaos said:
Don't like Manchego... I'm not suddenly going to get nationalist about this but Brexit is going to force people to look really closely at what they buy and how much they can afford. Crazy thing at the moment is even with people tightening belts left right and centre - Brits are spending on pets (and dogs in particular) like there's no tomorrow.
I've lived in countries going through "structural adjustment" and it's not pretty - however some people will do really well and a whole lot will do badly. A small group in the middle will be financially the same as before but the vast majority of the buying market will simply cut down on what they can afford, eat smaller portion sizes and drive less expensive cars.

In Nigeria, less expensive cars meant "Legedes Benz..."

May even be healthier.......

.

In a consumer driven economy, this is baddddddd. The UK will go into negative growth as the economy contracts, because people are buying less due to higher prices and less income.. it is a very bad spire to get into, and to get out off.

Chagos · Jan 25, 2020

PeteEU said:
If the UK wants to put 10% on German cars, then they have to do it on all cars. The UK is not the EU or US, so they cant pick and choose what WTO rules they want to follow. But most cars for the UK market is made in the UK, so the threat is hollow as hell just like the US threats on EU cars.... it is kinda pathetic. The only cars that might get hit, are expensive luxury cars and frankly who cares if your Porsche costs a few thousand extra.. once you are in that price range anyways, money aint exactly a factor.

Thing being that, for example, PSA's (currently) UK-produced Corsa (i.e. Vauxhall) is going to fall under the EU's 10 pct import tariff as well. Seeing how most of that production is/was earmarked for export to "the continent", it's highly likely that the assembly line, if not shut down completely, will suffer heavy reduction and thus decline of jobs.

Nissan is no different, seeing how its UK production went mainly to Europe.

One will have to see whether the UK market, big as it certainly is, will justify having plants there at all just for the sake of supplying "domestic".

Chagos · Jan 25, 2020

Infinite Chaos said:
~.........................In Nigeria, less expensive cars meant "Legedes Benz..."

May even be healthier.......

.

Failing which, one can always use HS2 as THE alternative.:mrgreen:

PeteEU · Jan 25, 2020

Chagos said:
Thing being that, for example, PSA's (currently) UK-produced Corsa (i.e. Vauxhall) is going to fall under the EU's 10 pct import tariff as well. Seeing how most of that production is/was earmarked for export to "the continent", it's highly likely that the assembly line, if not shut down completely, will suffer heavy reduction and thus decline of jobs.

Nissan is no different, seeing how its UK production went mainly to Europe.

One will have to see whether the UK market, big as it certainly is, will justify having plants there at all just for the sake of supplying "domestic".

Nope, stuff produced in the UK are not considered imports, so will not have the 10% tariff. Now the EU WILL put on 10% automatically if the UK and EU cant negotiate something else, so an Opel car (your Vauxhaul) made in the UK will be an import into the EU and hence tariff eligible.

Chagos · Jan 25, 2020

PeteEU said:
Nope, stuff produced in the UK are not considered imports, so will not have the 10% tariff. Now the EU WILL put on 10% automatically if the UK and EU cant negotiate something else, so an Opel car (your Vauxhaul) made in the UK will be an import into the EU and hence tariff eligible.

basically what I said (or tried to).

Question being whether it'll be worthwhile for, say, PSA to maintain the UK production, just for the sake of avoiding the UK's import duty in supplying to UK buyers. Bearing in mind that most of the Corsas made in the UK right now go to the EU and would thus incur EU duties on the sales side.

Might as well move production to Romania and sell from there to UK, seeing how the UK import duty then incurred would probably not amount to the cost and trouble of maintaining a UK plant just for the UK market.

PeteEU · Jan 25, 2020

Brexit: Boris Johnson’s hopes of US trade deal rest on progress in EU talks, warns Mnuchin | The Independent

As predicted.... Trump administration back tracking on a quick trade deal.

Sent from my Honor 8X

Infinite Chaos · Jan 26, 2020

Chagos said:
~ Might as well move production to Romania and sell from there to UK, seeing how the UK import duty then incurred would probably not amount to the cost and trouble of maintaining a UK plant just for the UK market.

I think this will come to be for much of our major export market to the EU. Not straight away, but a slow drip drip drip....