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Negotiations with "russia" over a new European security order would have huge to many, alarming
Negotiations with "russia" over a new European security order would have huge – to many, alarming – implications for Ukraine, the EU, and the NATO alliance. question who is mr. Macron ? an useful idiot or a traitor ?
"Macron is a man with a lot of big ideas about how Europeans should step up their game on foreign policy. Perhaps his biggest so far is for Europe to engage in negotiations with Russia on a new European security order, reflecting his belief, expressed last month, that “the European continent will never be stable, will never be secure, if we do not ease and clarify our relations with Russia.”
... Macron’s effort reflects a belief that the Americans will no longer defend Europe or engage meaningfully on European security, and that the Germans are unwilling to step up to help fill the void. Worse, he is also afraid that Donald Trump might sell Europe out to the Russians, or that Russia will fall into China’s hands – either of which would leave France and Europe out in the cold. The first step in avoiding that outcome is to probe what the Russians want.
Many European and French officials – as well as much of the French foreign policy community – have serious doubts about this outreach and about the willingness of Russia to engage constructively with the West. Anticipating this opposition, Macron warned France’s ambassadors not to work through “the deep state” to sabotage the initiative. The subtext of their critiques is that there is no bargaining with a Russia that did not respect the old order and that will not abide by a new one: engagement will therefore just provide an excuse to end sanctions and ignore Russia’s multiple sins.
Macron denies that he is naive about Russia’s malign actions in Europe. He recognises its use of frozen conflicts to gain leverage, its invasion of Ukraine, its threat to nuclear stability, its involvement in assassinations, organised crime, and money laundering, as well as its political interference and information manipulation. But he feels the need to relaunch the process with Russia, if only because no one else will, and because the consequences of inaction – a Europe that left out in the cold by a US-Russia deal or confronted by a Russia-China axis – are so dire.
If he does manage to jumpstart a negotiation with Russia on European security, it will have important implications for NATO and the EU, as well as for the Ukrainian conflict.
What does it mean for NATO?
For NATO members, the key notion in Macron’s initiative is that Europeans should structure overlapping system of “concentric circles” of European integration, with each inner circle implying closer relations. In order to do this, one would need to: find new ways of providing reassurance to European Union and NATO members located close to Russia; create a new, more productive relationship between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union; and agree a way to at least manage the various frozen, and unfrozen, conflicts in the region, including in Ukraine.
Macron’s “concentric circles” phrase set off alarm bells in eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and south-eastern Europe. Some wonder if it means there will be second-class members of NATO or EU, or whether some states will become expendable or indefensible. In theory, if a new agreement with Russia put a limit on NATO troop deployments in the eastern part of the alliance or gave Russia greater visibility into NATO manoeuvres, Russia might be able to more easily build up military pressure on its neighbours (through ‘little green men’, manoeuvres on the borders, or temporary occupations). Russia might then be able to use this military pressure, or just the threat of such pressure, to demand concessions from these states, while the West was either too paralysed or too divided to act. These fears show that, even if France feels safe from direct Russian military threats, the cold war game of counting missile launchers and scrutinising military exercises remains a real one in eastern Europe.
What does it mean for the EU and the eastern neighbourhood?
Macron’s ideas might also have important implications for the EU and the former Soviet states of the Eastern Partnership. The core of Macron’s approach is about taking Russian concerns seriously – something the Germans have been pushing for too. But, in terms of their purported economic concerns, for example, the Russians often deploy these as weapons in geopolitical disputes. Taking such grievances seriously thus risks missing the main point."
Emmanuel Macron’s very big idea on Russia | European Council on Foreign Relations
Negotiations with "russia" over a new European security order would have huge – to many, alarming – implications for Ukraine, the EU, and the NATO alliance. question who is mr. Macron ? an useful idiot or a traitor ?
"Macron is a man with a lot of big ideas about how Europeans should step up their game on foreign policy. Perhaps his biggest so far is for Europe to engage in negotiations with Russia on a new European security order, reflecting his belief, expressed last month, that “the European continent will never be stable, will never be secure, if we do not ease and clarify our relations with Russia.”
... Macron’s effort reflects a belief that the Americans will no longer defend Europe or engage meaningfully on European security, and that the Germans are unwilling to step up to help fill the void. Worse, he is also afraid that Donald Trump might sell Europe out to the Russians, or that Russia will fall into China’s hands – either of which would leave France and Europe out in the cold. The first step in avoiding that outcome is to probe what the Russians want.
Many European and French officials – as well as much of the French foreign policy community – have serious doubts about this outreach and about the willingness of Russia to engage constructively with the West. Anticipating this opposition, Macron warned France’s ambassadors not to work through “the deep state” to sabotage the initiative. The subtext of their critiques is that there is no bargaining with a Russia that did not respect the old order and that will not abide by a new one: engagement will therefore just provide an excuse to end sanctions and ignore Russia’s multiple sins.
Macron denies that he is naive about Russia’s malign actions in Europe. He recognises its use of frozen conflicts to gain leverage, its invasion of Ukraine, its threat to nuclear stability, its involvement in assassinations, organised crime, and money laundering, as well as its political interference and information manipulation. But he feels the need to relaunch the process with Russia, if only because no one else will, and because the consequences of inaction – a Europe that left out in the cold by a US-Russia deal or confronted by a Russia-China axis – are so dire.
If he does manage to jumpstart a negotiation with Russia on European security, it will have important implications for NATO and the EU, as well as for the Ukrainian conflict.
What does it mean for NATO?
For NATO members, the key notion in Macron’s initiative is that Europeans should structure overlapping system of “concentric circles” of European integration, with each inner circle implying closer relations. In order to do this, one would need to: find new ways of providing reassurance to European Union and NATO members located close to Russia; create a new, more productive relationship between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union; and agree a way to at least manage the various frozen, and unfrozen, conflicts in the region, including in Ukraine.
Macron’s “concentric circles” phrase set off alarm bells in eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and south-eastern Europe. Some wonder if it means there will be second-class members of NATO or EU, or whether some states will become expendable or indefensible. In theory, if a new agreement with Russia put a limit on NATO troop deployments in the eastern part of the alliance or gave Russia greater visibility into NATO manoeuvres, Russia might be able to more easily build up military pressure on its neighbours (through ‘little green men’, manoeuvres on the borders, or temporary occupations). Russia might then be able to use this military pressure, or just the threat of such pressure, to demand concessions from these states, while the West was either too paralysed or too divided to act. These fears show that, even if France feels safe from direct Russian military threats, the cold war game of counting missile launchers and scrutinising military exercises remains a real one in eastern Europe.
What does it mean for the EU and the eastern neighbourhood?
Macron’s ideas might also have important implications for the EU and the former Soviet states of the Eastern Partnership. The core of Macron’s approach is about taking Russian concerns seriously – something the Germans have been pushing for too. But, in terms of their purported economic concerns, for example, the Russians often deploy these as weapons in geopolitical disputes. Taking such grievances seriously thus risks missing the main point."
Emmanuel Macron’s very big idea on Russia | European Council on Foreign Relations