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BoJo's "big plan" to be revealed

Red_Dave said:
~ So i think the extent that this would work in NI would depend on how high tariffs would be on either side of the border and to what extend we are willing to accept that some amount of smuggling would exist ~
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Agree on the workability, it goes also to the essence of why there is a single market and how important that is to the EU. It's worth having a thread separately about the extent the single market has benefit the economies of Europe but I feel we are about to discover that when we leave without a credible deal.

Chagos said:
Indeed.

And there lies the problem for the EU in Eire not wanting that (alone not to be saddled with the blame) and the EU not wanting to force Eire.

But neither of those can have their cake and eat it, just as the UK can't. There'll be blame galore anyway and wishing to avoid it is not a basis for acting with intelligence.
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A buffer around Eire and Northern Ireland would make quite a difference for physical goods, people and other smuggling will be more difficult to police.

Chagos said:
Somehow immediately brought up images of

Yellow matter custard
Dripping from a dead dog's eye
Crabalocker fishwife, pornographic priestess............................

Lord knows why.
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Drugs?
Old age?
Too much porn?

Take your pick.. :mrgreen:
 
Infinite Chaos said:
~...............................A buffer around Eire and Northern Ireland would make quite a difference for physical goods, people and other smuggling will be more difficult to police.
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Frankly, if the proposal materializes (as we now get to hear) of having Ulster to a large extent within the customs union until 2025, Brussels and all others involved would be pretty daft to not agree. A lot can happen in 5 years in finally resolving that border issue and the path for negotiating future relations would not only be much smoother but also not subject to the extreme time pressure we currently observe.

That the current mess is primarily of the UK's making is something one can stress for indignation's sake but it really leads nowhere else.


Drugs?
Old age?
Too much porn?

Take your pick.. :mrgreen:
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Probably all of that in whichever order but you forgot rock'n roll.:2razz:
 
Chagos said:
Frankly, if the proposal materializes (as we now get to hear) of having Ulster to a large extent within the customs union until 2025, Brussels and all others involved would be pretty daft to not agree. A lot can happen in 5 years in finally resolving that border issue and the path for negotiating future relations would not only be much smoother but also not subject to the extreme time pressure we currently observe.

That the current mess is primarily of the UK's making is something one can stress for indignation's sake but it really leads nowhere else.


Probably all of that in whichever order but you forgot rock'n roll.:2razz:
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5 years is too little. 15 years would be better, but I prefer 30. That would give the UK and EU plenty of time to fix things. The EU has never been opposed to a time limit but the lack of trust in the British has lead to this.

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So, here's the proposal that the UK govt. sent to Brussels today:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/836029/PM_letter_to_Juncker.pdf

plus the explanatory notes

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/836030/Explanatory_Note.pdf

Haven't read it yet in detail, a preliminary glance however showing it to be worse than May's deal. What springs to the the eye at first glance is
The proposal set out in this note would see regulatory checks applying between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, whilst Northern Ireland and Ireland would be in separate customs territories with customs controls applied to trade in goods between them.
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explanatory note above, "(1) Overarching measures", point 4.

So? Two borders for N. Ireland? (never mind the rhetoric of there going to be none, border is border, open, permeable or hard).
 
Chagos said:
So, here's the proposal that the UK govt. sent to Brussels today:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/836029/PM_letter_to_Juncker.pdf

plus the explanatory notes

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/836030/Explanatory_Note.pdf

Haven't read it yet in detail, a preliminary glance however showing it to be worse than May's deal. What springs to the the eye at first glance is explanatory note above, "(1) Overarching measures", point 4.

So? Two borders for N. Ireland? (never mind the rhetoric of there going to be none, border is border, open, permeable or hard).
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It's a non starter and basically a poison pill and more proof that Boris and Co want a hard Brexit. Why? The DUP have said they could agree on this and that alone should send red flares up since the DUP has always said no border between the UK and NI...here you get 2. Secondly it actually uses large parts of a former May government proposal that was shot down by the Brexit baffons before...the same baffons that are now proposing this.

Now the EU has not come out and said "been there done that" yet because they know it is a poison pill and don't want to be blamed for sinking the Boris fantasy deal.

The EU will be waiting for the opposition to tear it apart.

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PeteEU said:
It's a non starter and basically a poison pill and more proof that Boris and Co want a hard Brexit. Why? The DUP have said they could agree on this and that alone should send red flares up since the DUP has always said no border between the UK and NI...here you get 2. Secondly it actually uses large parts of a former May government proposal that was shot down by the Brexit baffons before...the same baffons that are now proposing this.

Now the EU has not come out and said "been there done that" yet because they know it is a poison pill and don't want to be blamed for sinking the Boris fantasy deal.

The EU will be waiting for the opposition to tear it apart.

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Yeah, more or less my perception(s) as well.
 
Chagos said:
Yeah, more or less my perception(s) as well.
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The irony is that the EU most likely would accept NI staying within the customs union and common market for say 10 or more years with the ability to extend if no overall deal has been made before. But as long as the DUP and the hardline Brexit people want a hard Brexit, then it will never be suggested by the UK and the EU wont suggest it either since the UK is not a trustworthy negotiating partner.
 
PeteEU said:
~ Secondly it actually uses large parts of a former May government proposal ~
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I wondered at this - but wasn't it originally an EU proposal to have a border in the Irish Sea?

This essentially looks like the two Irelands are treated as one mass, BoJo saying "British people, Irish cows" and then there would be checks in the Irish Sea with some form of checkpoints in Ireland.

would see Northern Ireland stay in the European single market for goods, but leave the customs union - resulting in new customs checks.
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The Backstop was Theresa May's counter-proposal. At least this is my reading.. so if you are a northern Irish protestant you have essentially been given the deal the EU proposed a while ago.
 
PeteEU said:
The irony is that the EU most likely would accept NI staying within the customs union and common market for say 10 or more years with the ability to extend if no overall deal has been made before. But as long as the DUP and the hardline Brexit people want a hard Brexit, then it will never be suggested by the UK and the EU wont suggest it either since the UK is not a trustworthy negotiating partner.
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demographics will take care of N. Ireland with time, Protestant majority having been on the down in past years already.

Not really a religious problem/issue (I hasten to add), just that the Protestants don't consider themselves to be Irish while the Catholics do.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
I wondered at this - but wasn't it originally an EU proposal to have a border in the Irish Sea?

This essentially looks like the two Irelands are treated as one mass, BoJo saying "British people, Irish cows" and then there would be checks in the Irish Sea with some form of checkpoints in Ireland.
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There already is.. and has been for decades. And it was Ian whats his name that said that not BoJo. When foot and mouth happened, NI was not affected, but because the EU (and world) banned British meat products, the NI leaders got a concession that NI meats was treated as Irish.. see the irony here?
 
Infinite Chaos said:
I wondered at this - but wasn't it originally an EU proposal to have a border in the Irish Sea?
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I don't recall it as having been THAT expressly stated but the wangling going on at the time practically amounted to that effect. One could have placed it at the EU's door but the principal player in this aspect at the time was Eire. Not necessarily expressly stating a border to be in the Irish Sea, but that would have come as a consequence of what WAS being kicked around (namely the border to Ulster, respectively its avoidance). Of course the EU backed its member on this then as it does on different solutions now.

This essentially looks like the two Irelands are treated as one mass, BoJo saying "British people, Irish cows" and then there would be checks in the Irish Sea with some form of checkpoints in Ireland.
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That's how I see it with "IN the Irish Sea" being, of course, figurative.
The Backstop was Theresa May's counter-proposal. At least this is my reading.. so if you are a northern Irish protestant you have essentially been given the deal the EU proposed a while ago.
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I don't see it passing Westminster, even if Brussels agrees (unlikely too albeit for different reasons). The fanatics on both sides of the aisle would quash it just as much as moderates will object.

Okay, some of the Tory rebels might come back aboard, but whether that would get the necessary majority of votes remains doubtful.

It's a non-starter as Pete has said, along the lines of (as I have said) "I'll offer them a deal that they MUST refuse".

BoJO can't even get Vito Corleone right.
 
The DUP agreement is unexpected...What could he have bribed them with ? (other than the ability to cancel the agreement anytime) It looks like the DUP are prepared to face a show down with their own traditional wing to help get Johnson’s Brexit over the line. Quite a big moment in Ulster Unionism. Compromises such as this have never ended well for Unionist leaders in the past. They're agreeing to a border in the Irish sea, and EU goods in the whole island of Ireland. Their followers will never stand for it.
 
Manc Skipper said:
The DUP agreement is unexpected...What could he have bribed them with ? (other than the ability to cancel the agreement anytime) It looks like the DUP are prepared to face a show down with their own traditional wing to help get Johnson’s Brexit over the line. Quite a big moment in Ulster Unionism. Compromises such as this have never ended well for Unionist leaders in the past. They're agreeing to a border in the Irish sea, and EU goods in the whole island of Ireland. Their followers will never stand for it.
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I bet Sinn Fein is happy.
 
Carjosse said:
I bet Sinn Fein is happy.
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That goes without saying! The GFA did't stop the border violence completely. It just slowed it all down to a simmer. Every month of two there's a kneecapping (one last week) or a shooting.
At this rate there will be DUP fighting other DUP as well!

That said, it will never be put into practice, nonsensical though it is, because the EU will have to say NO to his confrontation. Johnson hopes they will be blamed for the collapse of the non-existent negotiations. He's still set on the no deal Brexit. His sponsors demand it.
 
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Manc Skipper said:
The DUP agreement is unexpected...What could he have bribed them with ? (other than the ability to cancel the agreement anytime) It looks like the DUP are prepared to face a show down with their own traditional wing to help get Johnson’s Brexit over the line. Quite a big moment in Ulster Unionism. Compromises such as this have never ended well for Unionist leaders in the past. They're agreeing to a border in the Irish sea, and EU goods in the whole island of Ireland. Their followers will never stand for it.
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Naw not really. They agree because they know it is DOA and hence dont want to be blamed for the failure. They have been and are the main problem but with this stunt they attempt to push the blame onto others. Remember the DUP are a bunch of racist sexist hypocrites..
 
Chagos said:
~ It's a non-starter as Pete has said, along the lines of (as I have said) "I'll offer them a deal that they MUST refuse" ~
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I honestly am not sure. There's a form of hard border which protects the single market but the real border will be along the Irish Sea. My take is that BoJo has threatened the DUP as I really think the Protestants won't like what's been offered - even with a walking big bribe.

PeteEU said:
~ see the irony here?
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There's all sorts of irony today. BoJo's supporters think he's pulled a rabbit out of a hat but I am certain it's a rehashed deal and he's probably also told the DUP that he won't need them after a re-election.

Manc Skipper said:
The DUP agreement is unexpected...What could he have bribed them with ? ~
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I think there's been quite a big bribe offered but it will come to light soon. I honestly think this deal will get through but I'm interested in how the US Senate responds as there will be a border and this impacts on the GFA.
 
Manc Skipper said:
The DUP agreement is unexpected...What could he have bribed them with ? (other than the ability to cancel the agreement anytime) It looks like the DUP are prepared to face a show down with their own traditional wing to help get Johnson’s Brexit over the line. Quite a big moment in Ulster Unionism. Compromises such as this have never ended well for Unionist leaders in the past. They're agreeing to a border in the Irish sea, and EU goods in the whole island of Ireland. Their followers will never stand for it.
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Not really. Agriculture represents as much as a third of the north-south trade in Ireland. That aspect of it has been discussed fairly openly recently in relation to DUP support.
 
The story of the backstop is not of a flawlessly executed Celtic masterplan, however. Dublin conceived it fitfully and gradually in response to British contradictions and missteps. But once crystallised as a goal, the Irish pursued it hell for leather.“It was very clearly identified at the very early stages that Northern Ireland and the border would become an issue,” Helen McEntee, Ireland’s minister of state for European affairs, said in an interview this week.
“The border came up at every meeting,” said Andrew Gilmore, deputy research director at the Institute of International and European Affairs thinktank, who attended stakeholder consultations.
While the UK suffered from what some call “Brexit comprehension lag” the Irish were quick off the blocks.
Enda Kenny, the then taoiseach, ordered the first Brexit impact study in 2014. Officials identified the impact on the economy, diplomatic ties, and crucially the Good Friday agreement and whatBrexit would mean for the border. A further 85-page report was produced in November 2015 outlining consequences of a yes and a no vote.
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Well, as we now look at the final stages of the process with BoJo having released his plan - this 2017 article sheds some light on how the Irish outmanoeuvred the UK and helped focus plans that EU solidarity would be with a remaining member and not the one leaving.

The Irish actually started planning for Brexit in 2014 - very sobering when we look at when the UK finally started thinking about the consequences. We tend to think of the Backstop being a British and Theresa May idea - the Guardian article and interviews of Irish participants suggests it was something the Irish equally had a hand in conceiving.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
I think there's been quite a big bribe offered but it will come to light soon. I honestly think this deal will get through but I'm interested in how the US Senate responds as there will be a border and this impacts on the GFA.
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Why? He does not have a majority with the DUP and I doubt he can bring back the 21 Tories he kicked out..
 
PeteEU said:
Why? He does not have a majority with the DUP and I doubt he can bring back the 21 Tories he kicked out..
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He may get some of them back, especially in view of their probably favoring this current fog of a deal. More so if he re-offers them the whip.

Then there are those Labour MPs to consider who, while being adamantly against a no-deal Brexit, are as adamantly against both remain and any second referendum.

But my crystal ball is at the service station right now.
 
PeteEU said:
Why? He does not have a majority with the DUP and I doubt he can bring back the 21 Tories he kicked out..
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Not all, however some apparently where recorded by Laura Kuenssberg as being supportive of the plans. He was much more conciliatory in Parliament yesterday and never forget how much some Conservatives would like to be back in the fold.
Also, plenty of Labour MPs will defy Corbyn and vote with Johnson on this.
 
PeteEU said:
'Problematic points' in Boris Johnson's Brexit plan must be fixed by UK, not us, says EU | The Independent

Brilliant response. Ball is now back on BoJos corner...

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One of the things I find puzzling (just to pass the time here) is how the Northern Ireland assembly is going to vote whichever way on whatever set-up.

Considering that it hasn't been sitting in years and doesn't look likely to.

And who does anyone get to sign a deal with if a potential veto party is not even a signatory? That's like saying the wife gets the house but her brother may want more in future.

Two-Border-Boris has been on a cobbler's rampage without producing a shoe.
 
Chagos said:
One of the things I find puzzling (just to pass the time here) is how the Northern Ireland assembly is going to vote whichever way on whatever set-up.

Considering that it hasn't been sitting in years and doesn't look likely to.

And who does anyone get to sign a deal with if a potential veto party is not even a signatory? That's like saying the wife gets the house but her brother may want more in future.

Two-Border-Boris has been on a cobbler's rampage without producing a shoe.
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Because they know it is DOA so might as well support it. Fact is, if by some miracle Boris got a majority to vote yes for it, then the DUP would change its mind..
 
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