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Operation Yellowhammer reasonable worst case scenario

Infinite Chaos

Infinite Chaos

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2 weeks ago, one of the senior doctors involved in the Govt own assessment again (he first raised the issue in 2018) warned that the Govt was stockpiling bodybags ready for a no deal Brexit as medical supplies would likely fall. Govt quickly moved to discredit him but released papers last night this time warns of riots, fuel shortages and a rise in death rates among those most likely to be impacted by Brexit.

Riots on the streets, food price rises and reduced medical supplies are real risks of the UK leaving the EU without a deal, a government document has said.

Ministers have published details of their Yellowhammer contingency plan, after MPs voted to force its release. It outlines a series of "reasonable worst case assumptions" for the impact of a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. Link.
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Moving forward, other sectors which are already fragile will also be impacted.

Ironically, no mention of the words "Project Fear" this time. "Little England" is happy to see the break-up of the Union but now also deaths and riots as a reasonable price.
 
For the record, Yellowhammer is not a reasonable worst-case scenario, it is a base scenario (likely scenario). It was re-titled reasonable worst-case scenario just before they were ordered to release it to the public, in order to trick the public into thinking the scenarios would be unlikely to happen.
 
Love how they censored point 15... The whole thing was leaked weeks ago so why the hell bother redacting point 15?

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Aristaeus said:
For the record, Yellowhammer is not a reasonable worst-case scenario, it is a base scenario (likely scenario). It was re-titled reasonable worst-case scenario just before they were ordered to release it to the public, in order to trick the public into thinking the scenarios would be unlikely to happen.
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Aristaeus:

Have you got any citations which back-up your assertion of the rebranding? Just wondering.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
 
Evilroddy said:
Aristaeus:

Have you got any citations which back-up your assertion of the rebranding? Just wondering.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
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Don't have time to search for links, but the original leak was titled 'Base scenario', and had basically the same content as the officially published version. Also, Michael Gove previously told a Commons Select Committee that operation Yellowhammer was a base scenario report.
 
Aristaeus said:
Don't have time to search for links, but the original leak was titled 'Base scenario', and had basically the same content as the officially published version. Also, Michael Gove previously told a Commons Select Committee that operation Yellowhammer was a base scenario report.
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Aristaeus:

From the pre-leaked Operation Yellowhammer document:

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...parations-for-exiting-the-EU-with-no-deal.pdf

Departments are working on the basis of a reasonable worst case scenario.
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P.10 of the PDF version of the report since released by the UK government.

I skimmed the document but did not see Mr. Gove's phrase "base-line" with respect to characterising the report itself. So, the primary source evidence would lead to the reasonable conclusion that the Yellowhammer study was indeed a worst-case-scenario.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
 
Evilroddy said:
Aristaeus:

From the pre-leaked Operation Yellowhammer document:

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...parations-for-exiting-the-EU-with-no-deal.pdf



P.10 of the PDF version of the report since released by the UK government.

I skimmed the document but did not see Mr. Gove's phrase "base-line" with respect to characterising the report itself. So, the primary source evidence would lead to the reasonable conclusion that the Yellowhammer study was indeed a worst-case-scenario.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
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Google is your friend. Try 'Yellowhammer base scenario twitter.' Some politician, whose name I can't remember, posted photos the pre-release version and the released version, and pre-released version said base scenario.
 
Aristaeus said:
Google is your friend. Try 'Yellowhammer base scenario twitter.' Some politician, whose name I can't remember, posted photos the pre-release version and the released version, and pre-released version said base scenario.
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Aristaeus:

Twitter is not a reliable primary historical source. I have linked you to the actual pre-leaked document composed in March, not some nutter's ramblings on Twitter. Mr. Gove may have characterised it as thus under questioning but the actual document says otherwise.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
 
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The rioting will be avoidable if remainers act like big boys.
 
Drawdown said:
The rioting will be avoidable if remainers act like big boys.
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Riots will not be about remain or leave, but about life giving medicine, food and fuel.

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PeteEU said:
Riots will not be about remain or leave, but about life giving medicine, food and fuel.

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How will starving and dying people have the energy to riot?
 
Infinite Chaos said:
What a stupid question.

Starving Haitians riot as food prices soar | The Independent

The Galway Starvation Riots | Views of the Famine

Grain riots and popular attitudes to the law : Crowds and popular politics in early modern England
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The UK isn't Haiti and this isn't the 1800's. Remainers certainly hope there will be riots, and I am sure they will do their best to fan the flames, but there is nothing that cannot be addressed in fairly short order in the event of a No Deal Brexit in terms of identifying critical shortages and addressing them. After all with all the complaints about how much export prices will be going up, there should be plenty of meat and agriculture to go around to fill the gap.
 
Drawdown said:
The UK isn't Haiti and this isn't the 1800's. Remainers certainly hope there will be riots, and I am sure they will do their best to fan the flames, but there is nothing that cannot be addressed in fairly short order in the event of a No Deal Brexit in terms of identifying critical shortages and addressing them. After all with all the complaints about how much export prices will be going up, there should be plenty of meat and agriculture to go around to fill the gap.
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It's inanity time, right?

You asked how starving people can still have the energy to riot, were shown examples and then you come up with this rubbish?

Maybe you need to re-calibrate your compass to find the type of schoolyard where such line of "argument" (being generous here) goes unnoticed on account of it being common there. As much as refusal to establish a line of logical thought being the pre-requisite rather than the problem.
 
Chagos said:
It's inanity time, right?

You asked how starving people can still have the energy to riot, were shown examples and then you come up with this rubbish?

Maybe you need to re-calibrate your compass to find the type of schoolyard where such line of "argument" (being generous here) goes unnoticed on account of it being common there. As much as refusal to establish a line of logical thought being the pre-requisite rather than the problem.
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You should try joining reality:

"Some types of fresh food will be in short supply, thanks to queues of lorries building up at the Channel Crossing. The report says while there will be no overall shortage of food, Brexit “will reduce choice of products and will increase price”.

Read more: Report reveals no-deal Brexit impact – here's what you need to know | New Scientist
 
Drawdown said:
The UK isn't Haiti and this isn't the 1800's. Remainers certainly hope there will be riots, and I am sure they will do their best to fan the flames, but there is nothing that cannot be addressed in fairly short order in the event of a No Deal Brexit in terms of identifying critical shortages and addressing them. After all with all the complaints about how much export prices will be going up, there should be plenty of meat and agriculture to go around to fill the gap.
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Always funny when someone asks a stupid question and then gets butthurt for the stupidity of the question being pointed out. Worse for you are your inane responses since. You'd have greater respect if you honestly admitted you messed up before trying to shift goalposts again.
 
Drawdown said:


You should try joining reality:

"Some types of fresh food will be in short supply, thanks to queues of lorries building up at the Channel Crossing. The report says while there will be no overall shortage of food, Brexit “will reduce choice of products and will increase price”.

Read more: Report reveals no-deal Brexit impact – here's what you need to know | New Scientist
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That was NOT the issue and your efforts to deflect from the stupidity of your original (meanwhile answered) question show to fail as much as the question did.
 
Evilroddy said:
Aristaeus:

Twitter is not a reliable primary historical source. I have linked you to the actual pre-leaked document composed in March, not some nutter's ramblings on Twitter. Mr. Gove may have characterised it as thus under questioning but the actual document says otherwise.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
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Here's a link to a photo of the copy of operation Yellowhammer received by the Scottish government. It says base scenario. The contents are identical. UK government changed the title to make it look like these things were unlikely to happen.

Tom Gordon on Twitter: "Spot the difference: Scottish Govt's copy of Yellowhammer says it's a 'base scenario', while UK Govt's says it's a 'reasonable worst case'.
Scottish Govt says it's 'puzzling' and 'curious'… https://t.co/6BUhLsny6x"
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Always funny when someone asks a stupid question and then gets butthurt for the stupidity of the question being pointed out. Worse for you are your inane responses since. You'd have greater respect if you honestly admitted you messed up before trying to shift goalposts again.
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So we have established your food shortages are not going to happen......

And now your "life-saving medicine" shortages are not going to happen either NHS chiefs set up 24-hour supply lines to ensure vital drugs are available in the event of a No Deal Brexit – The Sun


You are running out of reasons to riot other than an overstock of sour grapes :lamo
 
Drawdown said:
So we have established your food shortages are not going to happen......

And now your "life-saving medicine" shortages are not going to happen either NHS chiefs set up 24-hour supply lines to ensure vital drugs are available in the event of a No Deal Brexit – The Sun


You are running out of reasons to riot other than an overstock of sour grapes :lamo
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Hmm... Who to believe? Those in charge of no deal planning in NHS trusts, who say there will be shortages, or a pro-Brexit newspaper unquestionably reporting the pro-Brexit government's spin?
 
Aristaeus said:
Hmm... Who to believe? Those in charge of no deal planning in NHS trusts, who say there will be shortages, or a pro-Brexit newspaper unquestionably reporting the pro-Brexit government's spin?
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Gee, tough choice. /s
 
Drawdown said:
So we have established your food shortages are not going to happen......~
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No, we have established that you asked a stupid question, that the question was answered (in that process its stupidity having been revealed) and that you are now attempting to deflect from that whole process.

And it's not working.
 
Aristaeus said:
Hmm... Who to believe? Those in charge of no deal planning in NHS trusts, who say there will be shortages, or a pro-Brexit newspaper unquestionably reporting the pro-Brexit government's spin?
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The Sun is a newspaper?

Always thought it was a comic for adults, with a child's mentality.
 
Drawdown said:
Drawdown said:
How will starving and dying people have the energy to riot?
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So we have established ~
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Stop deflecting and lying. You fool nobody. You asked one of the more stupid questions in recent months and have been caught out. Your only saving grace preventing it being the dumbest question of the year is that certain other American posters have been absent from the European forum for a while.
 
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