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Where next for British Conservatives?

Infinite Chaos

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Another loss tonight for BoJo, however while Amber Rudd hasn't left the Conservative party she has left the Govt.

This won't matter in Dominic Cumming's grand scheme of things - a lot of moderate Conservatives will leave the party but many more will replace them. As the Times Opinion piece states "The priority for Johnson is ensuring that the next batch of MPs will faithfully deliver what he promises. “If nice guy John is replaced by Jim, who is neither nice nor thoughtful, that’s sad but irrelevant — Jim will back the strategy.”"

We've lost Ken Clarke, Phillip Hammond, Rory Stewart and many others including Winston Churchill's grandson - politics is certainly becoming more and more polarised and the centre is being squeezed. I don't see myself as a Liberal Democrat voter but somewhere, there should be a broad centre party to come into place.
 
Another loss tonight for BoJo, however while Amber Rudd hasn't left the Conservative party she has left the Govt.

This won't matter in Dominic Cumming's grand scheme of things - a lot of moderate Conservatives will leave the party but many more will replace them. As the Times Opinion piece states "The priority for Johnson is ensuring that the next batch of MPs will faithfully deliver what he promises. “If nice guy John is replaced by Jim, who is neither nice nor thoughtful, that’s sad but irrelevant — Jim will back the strategy.”"

We've lost Ken Clarke, Phillip Hammond, Rory Stewart and many others including Winston Churchill's grandson - politics is certainly becoming more and more polarised and the centre is being squeezed. I don't see myself as a Liberal Democrat voter but somewhere, there should be a broad centre party to come into place.
Media are reporting she has left the party.

And you are a bit naive if you think that the moderates who left will be replaced by new moderates. If Boris manages to remain as leader, then they will be replaced by loyalists who certainly are not moderate.

Now if Boris is kicked to the curb and the moderates are let back in and the Rees-Mogg types are kicked out, then you might save the Conservatives.

But for now it is a dead man walking party as not even the fear of Corbyn can fix the mess Boris has created.

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~ Amber Rudd hasn't left the Conservative party ~

Like everything else Brexit related - sometimes the story develops and it's now clear Amber has left the Conservative party, she resigned the whip. So to paraphrase Chaogs' comment on another thread - the Conservative Govt now has a -22 majority.

~ And you are a bit naive if you think that the moderates who left will be replaced by new moderates ~

My apology - I see where you got that. I quoted from a Times article and paraphrased it. The Times article suggests Brexit friendly alt-righties will replace Moderates and instead of typing all that - I simply typed "many more will replace them" which suggests more Moderates to replace the ones resigning or being kicked out.

My bad.
 
Media are reporting she has left the party.

And you are a bit naive if you think that the moderates who left will be replaced by new moderates. If Boris manages to remain as leader, then they will be replaced by loyalists who certainly are not moderate.

Now if Boris is kicked to the curb and the moderates are let back in and the Rees-Mogg types are kicked out, then you might save the Conservatives.

But for now it is a dead man walking party as not even the fear of Corbyn can fix the mess Boris has created.

Sent from my JSN-L21 using Tapatalk

I've heard of rumours that Boris could file a no-confidence motion himself, to force a general election. Many conservatives seem confident of winning, while the opposition keeps stopping them.

do you think Corbyn could win a general election, truly?
 
Another loss tonight for BoJo, however while Amber Rudd hasn't left the Conservative party she has left the Govt.

This won't matter in Dominic Cumming's grand scheme of things - a lot of moderate Conservatives will leave the party but many more will replace them. As the Times Opinion piece states "The priority for Johnson is ensuring that the next batch of MPs will faithfully deliver what he promises. “If nice guy John is replaced by Jim, who is neither nice nor thoughtful, that’s sad but irrelevant — Jim will back the strategy.”"

We've lost Ken Clarke, Phillip Hammond, Rory Stewart and many others including Winston Churchill's grandson - politics is certainly becoming more and more polarised and the centre is being squeezed. I don't see myself as a Liberal Democrat voter but somewhere, there should be a broad centre party to come into place.

The European elections showed that, if parliamentary elections were held today, Tories and Labor would both get trounced, with the Brexit Party taking the working class base of each, and the LibDems taking the upper class base of each.

Boris Johnson is trying desperately to repair the reputation of the Tories among ordinary patriotic Britons. That he's managed to rid them of Amber Rudd is a definite step in the right direction.
 
I've heard of rumours that Boris could file a no-confidence motion himself, to force a general election. Many conservatives seem confident of winning, while the opposition keeps stopping them.

do you think Corbyn could win a general election, truly?
Boris won't win a no confidence vote against him because the opposition does not want to trigger an election before the 31st of October.

He could resign of course and force the opposition to form a government and when the fail after 20 days, an election will be automatically called, but I think even that time is running out. Problem here is he has pissed off the Tory base with his kicking out of moderate Tories and I could see the opposition join forces with say Ken Clarke as temporary PM until after the 31st.

As for an election. It will depend on the individual seats and if the Brexit Party puts up candidates, plus now it will also depend on 20 seats where Boris has kicked out the present candidates. Just because Boris might replace them with a loyalist, does not mean that the seat will go to the Tories by default especially if the current holder goes independent or joins someone else.

Would Labour win a majority? Nope doubt it, not with Corbyn at the helm. However a Labour, Lib Dem SNP based coalition government is a possibility.

Then there is the Brexit Party who will take a lot of votes from the Tories if the election is after the 31st of October.

Now all this is of course fluid as hell...who could have predicted what has happened this week? Even I would not have predicted Boris kicking out people.

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The European elections showed that, if parliamentary elections were held today, Tories and Labor would both get trounced, with the Brexit Party taking the working class base of each, and the LibDems taking the upper class base of each.

Boris Johnson is trying desperately to repair the reputation of the Tories among ordinary patriotic Britons. That he's managed to rid them of Amber Rudd is a definite step in the right direction.
The election system is Soooooo different between the EU and national election.

First off there are far more seats.

Second the national elections are first past the post, which the EU elections are not. In the EU districts there are multiple seats per district.

Finally the Brexit Party is a one issue party, where as a national election is not.

At the moment the Brexit Party is polling at 13% which is 4th place, where as in the EU elections they were polling first and in fact underperformed in the final result.

The key question is how much the Tories have lost the last few days.



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It's certainly something when the LibDems are hoovering up as many MPs from the Tories as from Labour and at the same time.
 
It's certainly something when the LibDems are hoovering up as many MPs from the Tories as from Labour and at the same time.

I noted this too but many like me are not Lib Dems. These Conservatives like Rory Stewart etc need to create a new centre party. I see no political home for me in the current Conservative party and certainly not in Lib Dem or Labour parties either.

I've heard of rumours that Boris could file a no-confidence motion himself, to force a general election. Many conservatives seem confident of winning, while the opposition keeps stopping them.

do you think Corbyn could win a general election, truly?

Nobody deserves to win a General Election at the moment. We have echoed the US Presidential election by having unpopular, polarising figures at the heads of the parties these last few years. The last Conservative I voted for was Cameron, I remember when he was being feted at the saviour of the Conservative party after years of "nasty party" leaders like Ian Duncan Smith, Michael Howerd and William Hague. he cocked up royally by giving us a loosely defined Referendum which since led to the horrors we have now.

Theresa May's warning in 2002 about the Conservatives being "the nasty party" and being defined by too narrow a political ideology has come back to bite the party on the bum. This time though, like cuckoos, the nasty party element have gained power by ousting the hosts rather than through popular election.
 
~....................Nobody deserves to win a General Election at the moment. .......................~

(rest edited for reply to stay within the word limit)
With nothing to argue over in what you post, let me say, since your thread poses a question overall, that in my book the question falls short of an issue holding far more importance for the future.

WHAT NEXT FOR BRITAIN???

I do not mean wrt solely to Brexit or with regard to the decline of the Tories as we both once knew them, no the question pertains to whether Brits wish to maintain an organizational state structure (thinking electoral system, thinking constitutional system, thinking system both of political and thus democratic representation)that is so blatantly faulty as we come to see in this catastrophe.

I pointed out elsewhere that Westminster is not Weimar and I vociferously maintain that assessment. This should not lead anyone, however, to close their eyes to the fact of certain parallels showing themselves.

One of those being that the electoral system, such as it is today, leaves the door open for democracy to be, if not destroyed, heavily compromised by democratic means. This is of course already heavily criticized by those who see the will of the people currently contravened by the will of parliament, with the most undemocratic political factions gleefully exploiting this public perception. What appears to enter public intelligence not at all though is that those very exploiters are a far greater problem than a sovereign parliament that has been elected by the people and pursues the good of the country, however much public opinion may meanwhile have been manipulated towards opposite conclusions.

To wit, the electoral system of "first past the post" is an abomination, potentially holding the danger of the will of the people finding no representation at all. That it is designed to provide "a strong government" rather than to potentially have to put up with a government that can perhaps only be formed by the often tedious process of coalition with other "unpalatables" is all very well. What it also opens windows and doors to, however, is not only a government as we currently see it, but that same government finding confirmation in whatever future election, while being nowhere near securing the majority of votes.

To wit, what use is a head of state that is compelled by unquestionable (and thus unshakable) tradition to do the bidding of whoever is seated in No. 10? Even if that someone can defy laws that parliament has passed, can defy the outcome of any no-confidence vote by simply refusing to leave office and can indeed, in the process of both, drive the country into the wall?.

Not to be misunderstood here, I am NOT anti-monarchy, nor am I pro. But a monarch precluded completely from stepping in should be confined to being a tourist attraction by now and not be abused by seemingly holding a political importance that s/he does not,

To wit (finally), a modern democracy (better said a state deeming itself to be governed on democratic principles) cannot, in the long run, function without a constitution. And despite indignant protests that I hear already of Britain having one, it does NOT. Because where things worked so far to everybody's satisfaction, there was always bound to be a time when they would not, and today is one of those times.

As a consequence of which what we have this very moment is a bunch of (self-proclaimed) "Spartans" running rough-shod over any principle of a sovereign parliament, with their declared ambition of, once succeeding completely, de-regulating just about anything sensibly regulated so far, creating a Manchester capitalist's paradise of low wages, a financial shark's playground, and no workers' rights whatsoever.

And let anyone champing on the bit to call me a socialist, wrap his unqualified opinion into a wad and shove it where the sun don't shine (I despise Corbyn heartily for a variety of reasons and his Marxist lean is one of them).

Aside all of all of which, the Spartans' ambition to turn Britain into (quote) a Singapore on the Thames (unquote) is as blatantly and myopically stupid as everything else they're embarked upon. Not only is the comparison moot (were such a status even achievable), the conditions of the two countries (let alone their respective peoples) cannot be remotely equated.


The UK prides itself on having a system of checks and balances as much as any other modern democracy. We clearly see that it doesn't, certainly not to that moire favorable extent seen elsewhere.
 
~......................................

As a consequence of which what we have this very moment is a bunch of (self-proclaimed) "Spartans" running rough-shod over any principle of a sovereign parliament, with their declared ambition of, once succeeding completely, de-regulating just about anything sensibly regulated so far, creating a Manchester capitalist's paradise of low wages, a financial shark's playground, and no workers' rights whatsoever.

....................~
Not a friend myself of supplying the blurb tube in substitution of own argument, I'll nevertheless make an exception anyhow.

YouTube


Pertains to the paragraph I've left standing in my own above quote-edit of my post #10.
 
Not a friend myself of supplying the blurb tube in substitution of own argument, I'll nevertheless make an exception anyhow.

YouTube


Pertains to the paragraph I've left standing in my own above quote-edit of my post #10.

Another facet of class warfare. It's going on here also with Trump/McConnell as their point men.
 
Another facet of class warfare. It's going on here also with Trump/McConnell as their point men.
I know, but it would really be great if we could keep American politics out of here. At least unless they directly "lap in".

Just my opinion, all nurtured by the desire to keep the more rabid ranting "cousins" where they're better off.

It gets so tiring when one wishes to visit the Europe forum to discuss matters European, and that lot comes out of the wood work like vultures smelling an easy meal.

"Vultures coming out of the woodwork"?:slapme:

I'll have that patented as waxing lyrical under a ton of poetic license. :lamo
 
I know, but it would really be great if we could keep American politics out of here. At least unless they directly "lap in".

Just my opinion, all nurtured by the desire to keep the more rabid ranting "cousins" where they're better off.

It gets so tiring when one wishes to visit the Europe forum to discuss matters European, and that lot comes out of the wood work like vultures smelling an easy meal.

Unfortunately, they're going to come whether you approve or not. Every week we see more knuckleheads visit the Europe forum.

Trump has told them to support Brexit and they obey. All other considerations are irrelevant.
 
Unfortunately, they're going to come whether you approve or not. Every week we see more knuckleheads visit the Europe forum.

Trump has told them to support Brexit and they obey. All other considerations are irrelevant.
Yeah, I guess (sigh) you're right.
 
~ Trump has told them to support Brexit and they obey ~

That's about the best explanation for it I've seen.

~ I'll nevertheless make an exception anyhow.

YouTube

Eh?

Didn't you say to Frigidwierdo that the video didn't say much? (Or words to that effect on another thread?)

I actually like Different Bias, he's very entertaining and I think well chosen Youtube is fine.

I know there's a lot of tripe there and if you don't read the comments you'll be fine as there is zero Moderation whatsoever on Youtube but there are a lot of really good instructional, educational and enlightening videos there.
 
~.................Eh?

Didn't you say to Frigidwierdo that the video didn't say much? (Or words to that effect on another thread?)
errh....no. Frigid posed the claim that France wants to see Britain fail and posted that Youtube link in same post. The vid actually says nothing about France but what it does say (about especially the ERG Mafia) is well worth considering.

Frigid and I cleared it all up in a later exchange,
I actually like Different Bias, he's very entertaining and I think well chosen Youtube is fine.
Hence the exception (mine).

I know there's a lot of tripe there and if you don't read the comments you'll be fine as there is zero Moderation whatsoever on Youtube but there are a lot of really good instructional, educational and enlightening videos there.
Okay then, here goes :mrgreen:

YouTube
 
You really think I'm going to fall for it and open that link?
It's totally harmless.

Tom Walker playing Jonathan Pie and (admittedly totally OT here) giving climate deniers a whipping.
 
You really think I'm going to fall for it and open that link?

It's totally harmless.

Tom Walker playing Jonathan Pie and (admittedly totally OT here) giving climate deniers a whipping.
But should you wish for a glimpse of how the world outside currently sees the UK:

YouTube

Okay, it's comedy but is it really?
 
Yet another Conservative has gone over toe the Lib Dems. Sam Gyimah - he was a logical fit for the Lib-Dems, always seen him as very "left" within the Conservative party.

It's totally harmless ~

No, I didn't think you were linking me to a virus infested site.
 
With nothing to argue over in what you post, let me say, since your thread poses a question overall, that in my book the question falls short of an issue holding far more importance for the future.

WHAT NEXT FOR BRITAIN???

I do not mean wrt solely to Brexit or with regard to the decline of the Tories as we both once knew them, no the question pertains to whether Brits wish to maintain an organizational state structure (thinking electoral system, thinking constitutional system, thinking system both of political and thus democratic representation)that is so blatantly faulty as we come to see in this catastrophe.
...
To wit (finally), a modern democracy (better said a state deeming itself to be governed on democratic principles) cannot, in the long run, function without a constitution. And despite indignant protests that I hear already of Britain having one, it does NOT. Because where things worked so far to everybody's satisfaction, there was always bound to be a time when they would not, and today is one of those times.
...
And let anyone champing on the bit to call me a socialist, wrap his unqualified opinion into a wad and shove it where the sun don't shine (I despise Corbyn heartily for a variety of reasons and his Marxist lean is one of them).

Edited for word count.

Chagos:

An excellent post. Thank you!

There are remedies in a system based on an unwritten constitution, but I fear modern populations are too meek and docile to avail themselves of them effectively anymore; and modern states are too powerful and too intrusive (in a surveillance sense) to let the remedies get started and build political momentum up. The "out of doors" has been historically effective in getting reform from below when governments were too entrenched to change from above. The much more extreme "right to rebellion" is also an established remedy but of course is often fatal for those who do not win the political struggle for reform and can cause immense political and material damage.

The problem, as I see it, is that you do not trust that the parliamentary system has evolved to protect citizens and the state effectively by fluid political means rather than by codified legal rules or formalised checks and balances set out in a written constitution. So you seem to be calling for a republican United Kingdom rather than a parliamentary United Kingdom. Is this so?

The problem from my point of view is that republics lack long-term flexibility and, if written constitutions are not very well composed and crafted, can entrench power even more firmly than a fluid parliamentary system, making reform much harder and tyranny/oligarchy more likely. The "cousins" from across the pond have watched more of their citizens die to domestic gun violence than citizens have died in foreign wars and that is because of the entrenchment of the US gun culture in a poorly written (in my opinion) constitutional amendment. So protecting and checking a political system is just as frought with danger by republican means as a parliamentary system protected by fluid political activism and checks. Both are messy and bring to mind the late Mr. Churchill's famous appraisal of democracy.

The key is for the people of the U.K. to stop sitting on their hands and to stop waiting for someone else to sort things out. Take to the streets by the millions in peaceful but highly disruptive protests until parliament is recalled in an emergency session by shutting down the country. Form peoples' parliaments in the political vacuum of prorogation to frighten the elected parliamentarians back to their benches and then frighten them more through the out of doors to sort out Brexit fast or to submit to a people's parliament naming representatives to deal with the EU negotiations. Scare the crap out of the U.K. political and financial establishment until they turn the wheels to remedy the situation or until they that authority/influence and the out of doors compels the government.

Britain's constitutional history was made by Britons who were not afraid to confront the powers that be. They had courage and fortitude so either died for their beliefs or won their reforms or revolutions. Courage, iron will and bloody-minded focus tempered by pragmatic compromise are the checks and balances which have both protected and reshaped Britain's constitutional history for a millennium. It's a messy recipe but its flexibility and its effectiveness have been proved over and over again for those willing to lay it all on the line. Democracy is a rude and often painful business and having the wisdom to see that and the courage to participate in it nonetheless makes it more stable in the long-run, because it can more easily correct its own mistakes when it has gotten things wrong. Republics tend to atrophy and become too hard and brittle to survive over the truly long-haul.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
 
What will happen to the Conservative Party in Britain? It will collapse, disintegrate, rebuild and reemerge as a political force in good time, perhaps with significant rebranding to wash away the stains and stink from Cameron's Folly (Brexit and direct democracy). What needs immediate reform is who will guide the ressurrection of the party. Will it be class, financial and commercial elites alone with narrow and largely exclusive interests for the UK down the road? Will it be a more responsive and broad-spectrum mix of conservative and centrist participants and interests aiming to stabilise the rocking ship of state and to responsibly address the many structural and wide-spread economic problems which plague many Britons looking for a new but careful way forward (compassionate conservatism)? How that rebirth plays out will mark the success or failure of the next iteration of the a Conservative Party.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
 
~----------------- So you seem to be calling for a republican United Kingdom rather than a parliamentary United Kingdom. Is this so?
Errh, the two are not mutually exclusive. And as I said, I'm neither opposed to nor supportive of the monarchy. Beyond which "the House" in the US IS a parliament within a republic.

Spain, where I live, IS a constitutional monarchy WITH BOTH parliament and a written constitution.

~.....................The problem from my point of view is that republics lack long-term flexibility and, if written constitutions are not very well composed and crafted, can entrench power even more firmly than a fluid parliamentary system, making reform much harder and tyranny/oligarchy more likely. The "cousins" from across the pond have watched more of their citizens die to domestic gun violence than citizens have died in foreign wars and that is because of the entrenchment of the US gun culture in a poorly written (in my opinion) constitutional amendment.................~
having edited the rest for sake of brevity and thus easier reading of the one point I wish to address here, the US "gun culture" is IMO not a thing arising from there being a written constitution. The second amendment is just what the name says, an amendment. Amendments can be changed by further amendments, that's why they're called amendments. That there is not sufficient political appetite across the whole nation altogether for such change is not a problem of there being a written constitution.

But to get away from digressing into US matters (and return in a roundabout way to "Europe"), Germany, for instance, has a written constitution, tailored in large parts from the US one. And Germany has NO "gun culture" like the US.

Addendums:

1) I don't particularly like the term gun culture anyway, seeing how it excludes all or any other aspects a culture might be made of. In that sense I'd otherwise be tempted to "garnish" the US with having a culture of violence, easier availability of guns (compared to others) just presenting the tool of more visible manifestation of said violence. But that would be just as much a generalization.

2) There is no perfection in any system but I maintain my position that a country (organized on democratic principles)with a written constitution is better off then a country without one.
 
What will happen to the Conservative Party in Britain? It will collapse, disintegrate, rebuild and reemerge as a political force in good time, perhaps with significant rebranding to wash away the stains and stink from Cameron's Folly (Brexit and direct democracy). What needs immediate reform is who will guide the ressurrection of the party. Will it be class, financial and commercial elites alone with narrow and largely exclusive interests for the UK down the road? Will it be a more responsive and broad-spectrum mix of conservative and centrist participants and interests aiming to stabilise the rocking ship of state and to responsibly address the many structural and wide-spread economic problems which plague many Britons looking for a new but careful way forward (compassionate conservatism)? How that rebirth plays out will mark the success or failure of the next iteration of the a Conservative Party.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
IMO as long as both "traditional" parties do not purge themselves of their radicals at whatever cost and thus pain, they'll lose more and more acceptance. Despite the current nation-wide folly (which does not represent the whole nation anyway), the majority of Brits have no taste for extremists.

So Labour has to contain the Marxist faction as much as Tories have to contain or possibly eradicate the hedge-fonding sharks, since both are instrumentalizing actually existing issues to further their self aggrandizing ambitions. Neither of which serve the country and thus the people at all.
 
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