- Joined
- Apr 18, 2013
- Messages
- 94,303
- Reaction score
- 82,669
- Location
- Barsoom
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Independent
I know the area, been there.
Beyond which the UK isn't going to start a war with Iran over oil deliveries to third parties, even if any such ship runs under UK flag like Stena Impero (UK itself imports practically nothing from Iran).
The issue here is free supply world wide and energy prices overall, as affected by hindrance of shipping in that area.
There's going to have to be far more than just the RN, to ensure future safety there.
Now if we look at the current mess in Westminster (no doubt extending well into Whitehall), there wouldn't be anyone rocking that particular Hormuz boat, even if we had somebody in office more competent than BoJo will turn out to be.
Add to that how Trump is already in campaign for next year and how an actual military conflict would truly screw up his chances, and all we'll get is a severer tightening of the sanctions screw.
The only way to guarantee free oil deliveries from the region ('cepting Iran) to the rest of the world, thus avoiding the markets to go haywire, is to blockade the Iranian coast completely. And apart from that taking something bigger than the RN (US, Saudi, Oman and the Emirates all getting in on the act), that'll see us having a war on our hands in no time.
Make no mistake, the Iranian people will back it, no matter how much most of them hate the regime by now.
Tanker vessels have to negotiate the Strait to dock at the Ras Laffan, Ras Tanura, Ras Juaymah, and the Basra loading wharves and then reverse the journey to exit the Persian Gulf. If the IRIN/IRGC keeps hijacking oil tankers, then they need to pay a price. Tehran understands this.