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'The UK is headed towards a cliff edge' – two experts on the economic outlook

Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

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'The UK is headed towards a cliff edge' – two experts on the economic outlook

Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee on Britain’s prospects.

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Lorries queue on the A20 outside Dover during a rehearsal for a no-deal Brexit in March.

6/26/19
David Blanchflower - Uncertainty rules the waves, not only on who the next prime minister will be but also who will be the next chancellor and the next governor of the Bank of England. Markets have no clue what sort of economic policy the UK government will have by year end. Will the UK still be in the EU? And if not, under what trading arrangements? Why would anyone invest right now? Discussions of who will be prime minister are increasingly looking like a clown show, and as far as discussions of economics go, they are basically in fantasyland. The rising likelihood of no-deal Brexit has hit the pound. Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt walking the country over the cliff would do severe damage to living standards. Despite claims by Threadneedle Street that wage growth was set to explode, pay growth has slowed again – falling back towards 3% a year. Wages after inflation are the same as they were in December, and still 5.5% lower than they were at the start of the great recession. The latest government figures show the underemployment rate – measured as the number of part-time workers who want full-time jobs as a percentage of employment – remains well above pre-2008 levels. Right now it feels as though the UK economy is headed towards a cliff edge.

Andrew Sentance - The CBI industrial trends survey – which has been monitoring the progress of the UK economy for more than 60 years points to a slowdown in manufacturing output as stock positions built up to deal with a no-deal Brexit start to unwind. Meanwhile, the pound remains weak and this will continue to squeeze consumption through its impact on inflation. The political world is in turmoil and the idea that Boris Johnson will become our prime minister fills me – and many other business people – with horror. At this time of crisis, I believe most business executives would want a safe pair of hands running the country rather than the erratic and mercurial Johnson. The confusion and uncertainty created by the Tory leadership campaign is not helpful for business confidence but it may not have a major impact on UK economic growth. Other issues, such as the trade conflict between US and China as well as rising conflict in the Middle East, are likely to prove more material to our economic prospects.
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Both British economists are leery of Johnson and predict a very painful period ahead for the UK.

Related: Factbox: No-deal Brexit - what it might mean for UK economy
 
That ship has sailed... Unsure there is any possibility of a reasonable deal at this point and it puts the onus on the UK to come up with some options last minute. Their economy is going to have a hell of a speed bump coming up.
 
Even after all this time, they're no closer to grasping the voters' priorities. To the Establishment, the idea that someone might be motivated by concerns other than money, is a concept they're simply incapable of processing. It just doesn't occur to them. It cannot, because that's all they're about. That's their lens on the world. Money money money.

They don't get that the majority of the public are willing to take the hit, since the alternative is acquiescence in the face of cultural suicide. It just may be that, for some, history, cultural legacy, tradition, identity and way of life are of ever so slightly greater importance than the ruling elite's bank balance.

If economic hardship lies down the road, then so be it. There was life before the EU. I'm pretty sure a stable, First World country won't become Mozambique in the blink of an eye.
 
NoC_T said:
Even after all this time, they're no closer to grasping the voters' priorities. To the Establishment, the idea that someone might be motivated by concerns other than money, is a concept they're simply incapable of processing. It just doesn't occur to them. It cannot, because that's all they're about. That's their lens on the world. Money money money.

They don't get that the majority of the public are willing to take the hit, since the alternative is acquiescence in the face of cultural suicide. It just may be that, for some, history, cultural legacy, tradition, identity and way of life are of ever so slightly greater importance than the ruling elite's bank balance.

If economic hardship lies down the road, then so be it. There was life before the EU. I'm pretty sure a stable, First World country won't become Mozambique in the blink of an eye.
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And what you don't seem to grasp is the amount of lying the leave campaign did and that there is no majority for leaving the EU anymore. On top of that the majority for leaving was so small...which is conveniently ignored as well.

Sent from my Honor 8X using Tapatalk
 
NoC_T said:
Even after all this time, they're no closer to grasping the voters' priorities. To the Establishment, the idea that someone might be motivated by concerns other than money, is a concept they're simply incapable of processing. It just doesn't occur to them. It cannot, because that's all they're about. That's their lens on the world. Money money money.

They don't get that the majority of the public are willing to take the hit, since the alternative is acquiescence in the face of cultural suicide. It just may be that, for some, history, cultural legacy, tradition, identity and way of life are of ever so slightly greater importance than the ruling elite's bank balance.

If economic hardship lies down the road, then so be it. There was life before the EU. I'm pretty sure a stable, First World country won't become Mozambique in the blink of an eye.
Click to expand...
Where I also hardly see the UK descending into third world status, the stance that opposition to this screw-up is based solely on preventing some elite having its purse emptied is truly simplistic.

Especially in view of large parts of said elite actually seeing good chances to fatten their purse with Brexit, and the public be damned.

Those hit hardest will be of the category "little man" and we'll see how much "history, cultural legacy, tradition, identity" will count to those, once the hard hit that everybody is so optimistically blabbering about actually comes to pass on them.

In that process realizing that a country's bank balance is precisely that, namely not of some convenient bogeyman in the city but of the whole country itself.
 
PeteEU said:
And what you don't seem to grasp is the amount of lying the leave campaign did and that there is no majority for leaving the EU anymore. On top of that the majority for leaving was so small...which is conveniently ignored as well.
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That a majority wouldn't persist, following a further three years of the very crisis that drove an otherwise virtually sessile, apathetic section of the public to the polls in '16 is laughable. Especially in light of the fact that those demographics who declined to vote would almost certainly have voted to leave. For what reason/s would Leave voters suddenly reconsider? Immigration has been checked and reversed?

Chagos said:
Where I also hardly see the UK descending into third world status, the stance that opposition to this screw-up is based solely on preventing some elite having its purse emptied is truly simplistic.

Especially in view of large parts of said elite actually seeing good chances to fatten their purse with Brexit, and the public be damned.

Those hit hardest will be of the category "little man" and we'll see how much "history, cultural legacy, tradition, identity" will count to those, once the hard hit that everybody is so optimistically blabbering about actually comes to pass on them.

In that process realizing that a country's bank balance is precisely that, namely not of some convenient bogeyman in the city but of the whole country itself.
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The majority's motive for voting to leave was mass, unchecked immigration. My criticism of the Establishment goes to their motive, not the public's.

As to 'convenient bogeyman', the voters evidently found their concerns to be hardly nebulous. Much less convenient.
 
NoC_T said:
~................ Especially in light of the fact that those demographics who declined to vote would almost certainly have voted to leave.
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You have as litlle means of knowing that as everybody else does.
For what reason/s would Leave voters suddenly reconsider?
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see above
Immigration has been checked and reversed?
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You don't appear to be particularly informed on UK migration matters. The 2017 net migration of non-EU citizens to the UK surpassed that of 2010 and where the EU net migration has sunk, it was still higher in 2017 than in 2012.

The majority's motive for voting to leave was mass, unchecked immigration. My criticism of the Establishment goes to their motive, not the public's.
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You seem confused in not holding majority voters to be the public.

Better make up your mind before somebody thinks that the Leave vote does not represent the public.
As to 'convenient bogeyman', the voters evidently found their concerns to be hardly nebulous. Much less convenient.
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Try saying that again by combining both English and logic. Because if you can't address the point I made over banks, elites and balances being everybody's concern, you'd be better of not responding at all, rather than going off tangent in a totally unrelated gish gallop.
 
n the twelve months to June 2018, according to the ONS, the number of non-EU citizens who are in the UK on a long term basis rose by 248,000. By contrast the number of citizens from elsewhere in the EU, who are in the UK on a long term basis, rose by only 74,000.

Rose!!!

and I don't mean the flower.


So much for reversal:roll:
 
Chagos said:
You have as litlle means of knowing that as everybody else does. see aboveYou don't appear to be particularly informed on UK migration matters. The 2017 net migration of non-EU citizens to the UK surpassed that of 2010 and where the EU net migration has sunk, it was still higher in 2017 than in 2012. You seem confused in not holding majority voters to be the public. Better make up your mind before somebody thinks that the Leave vote does not represent the public. Try saying that again by combining both English and logic. Because if you can't address the point I made over banks, elites and balances being everybody's concern, you'd be better of not responding at all, rather than going off tangent in a totally unrelated gish gallop.
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I refer you to my previous posts. It may be that, convention being what it is, there's some nagging requirement for relevance. I know, it's tedious.
 
NoC_T said:
I refer you to my previous posts. It may be that, convention being what it is, there's some nagging requirement for relevance. I know, it's tedious.
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Thanks for confirming, seeing how I was getting that impression as well.
 
NoC_T said:
~ They don't get that the majority of the public are willing to take the hit, since the alternative is acquiescence in the face of cultural suicide ~
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That majority was a small majority but I'm more curious what you see the "cultural suicide" as being?
 
NoC_T said:
Even after all this time, they're no closer to grasping the voters' priorities. To the Establishment, the idea that someone might be motivated by concerns other than money, is a concept they're simply incapable of processing. It just doesn't occur to them. It cannot, because that's all they're about. That's their lens on the world. Money money money.

They don't get that the majority of the public are willing to take the hit, since the alternative is acquiescence in the face of cultural suicide. It just may be that, for some, history, cultural legacy, tradition, identity and way of life are of ever so slightly greater importance than the ruling elite's bank balance.

If economic hardship lies down the road, then so be it. There was life before the EU. I'm pretty sure a stable, First World country won't become Mozambique in the blink of an eye.
Click to expand...

Cultural suicide?? Lol. Not even the French are worried about cultural suicide in the EU, and they are way more culturally entrenched.
 
Aristaeus said:
Cultural suicide?? Lol. Not even the French are worried about cultural suicide in the EU, and they are way more culturally entrenched.
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Cultural suicide is neo nazi code imo. It basically means that my culture is superior to all others and I will do anything to defend it...

Sent from my Honor 8X using Tapatalk
 
Infinite Chaos said:
That majority was a small majority but I'm more curious what you see the "cultural suicide" as being?
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IMO that happened long ago already.

When many people gave up what was then "British cuisine" in favour of something that did NOT taste like stewed socks.:mrgreen:

Now all we gotta do is abandon the disgusting custom of pouring vinegar over the chips and replace that with mayonnaise, and bingo, we'll be totally without any culture in no time at all.:lamo
 
Chagos said:
~ Now all we gotta do is abandon the disgusting custom of pouring vinegar over the chips ~
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I bet you them damn Eurocrats forced us to pour vinegar on our chips in the first place dammit!
 
Infinite Chaos said:
I bet you them damn Eurocrats forced us to pour vinegar on our chips in the first place dammit!
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.........and, the height of their perfidiousness, let everybody else use mayo.

Together with forcing mushed peas on the Brits, just another one of the many moves to give British cooking a bad name world-wide.
 
PeteEU said:
And what you don't seem to grasp is the amount of lying the leave campaign did and that there is no majority for leaving the EU anymore. On top of that the majority for leaving was so small...which is conveniently ignored as well.

Sent from my Honor 8X using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yes Putin really did a number on them.
 
NoC_T said:
Even after all this time, they're no closer to grasping the voters' priorities. To the Establishment, the idea that someone might be motivated by concerns other than money, is a concept they're simply incapable of processing. It just doesn't occur to them. It cannot, because that's all they're about. That's their lens on the world. Money money money.

They don't get that the majority of the public are willing to take the hit, since the alternative is acquiescence in the face of cultural suicide. It just may be that, for some, history, cultural legacy, tradition, identity and way of life are of ever so slightly greater importance than the ruling elite's bank balance.

If economic hardship lies down the road, then so be it. There was life before the EU. I'm pretty sure a stable, First World country won't become Mozambique in the blink of an eye.
Click to expand...

Yes, there is nothing not worth suffering for ethnic purity. Just ask the 20th century Germans
 
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