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NATO to Deter Russia in Black Sea With Heightened Surveillance, U.S. Says

Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

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NATO to Deter Russia in Black Sea With Heightened Surveillance, U.S. Says

russia-asks-west-to-try-to-calm-its-kerch-strait-tensions-with-ukraine-880x537.jpg

Ukraine patrol boats hijacked by Russia and towed to Crimea. The 24 kidnapped sailors are incarcerated in the notorious Lefortovo Prison #2 in Moscow.

4/3/19
NATO plans to expand its surveillance in the Black Sea to ensure that Ukrainian ships travel safely through an area effectively controlled by Russia, a top U.S. official in the Western military alliance said Tuesday. The Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea with the Sea of Azov, has become a flashpoint between Moscow and the West after Russia seized three Ukrainian ships and 24 sailors in November. Ukraine has accused Moscow of military aggression, while Russia claims the boats illegally crossed its border near Crimea. The U.S. plans to offer a package to NATO defense ministers this week that “beefs up surveillance — both air surveillance as well as more of the NATO country ships going into the Black Sea” in support of Ukraine. “It is a package... to assure that there’s a safe passage for Ukrainian vessels through the Kerch Strait [to] the Sea of Azov,” said Kay Bailey Hutchison, the U.S. ambassador to NATO.

NATO foreign ministers are holding their regular April meeting in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday as they celebrate the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-led alliance. An unnamed senior U.S. official has said the NATO ministers will focus on the “defense and deterrence posture” in the Black Sea region. The official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity to preview the NATO meeting, said the ministers will seek to agree on a package of measures to bolster the military alliance's presence in the Black Sea.
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As I write this there are two NATO warships docked in the Ukraine Black Sea port of Odesa.

And no, Russia doesn't control the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, or the Kerch Strait.....

The Kerch Strait Incident: Law of the Sea or Law of Naval Warfare?

Agreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on cooperation in the use of the Sea of Azov and the Strait of Kerch. (2003)

Ukraine and Russia presidents Joint Statement Regarding the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait (§ 131)
 
We all know NATO won’t do anything if Russia decides it wants the rest of Ukraine and the Baltic States. There will never be a NATO intervention unless they invade Poland.
 
All pointless posturing but dangerous enough to embolden Kiev to do something stupid.

Much the same thing happened when the US gave Georgia some mis-leading signals in 2008.

But the base situation is the same - Ukraine is not a NATO member and never will be, and NATO will never spill one drop of blood in support of future Ukrainian reckless actions like violating Russian waters.
 
This **** always reminds me of Kennan's old interview in the NYT during the late 90s. What a prophetically brilliant man, and what a pathetic way for us to squander his legacy. Mearsheimer predicted it all too. Just senseless.

”I think it is the beginning of a new cold war,” said Mr. Kennan from his Princeton home. ”I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves. We have signed up to protect a whole series of countries, even though we have neither the resources nor the intention to do so in any serious way. [NATO expansion] was simply a light-hearted action by a Senate that has no real interest in foreign affairs.”

”What bothers me is how superficial and ill informed the whole Senate debate was,” added Mr. Kennan, who was present at the creation of NATO and whose anonymous 1947 article in the journal Foreign Affairs, signed ”X,” defined America’s cold-war containment policy for 40 years. ”I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe. Don’t people understand? Our differences in the cold war were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime.
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Kennan Speaks to Today's Flailing World: Is There a Solution? - Center for Citizen Initiatives
 
Napoleon said:
We all know NATO won’t do anything if Russia decides it wants the rest of Ukraine and the Baltic States. There will never be a NATO intervention unless they invade Poland.
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The Baltic States are also NATO.
 
Rogue Valley said:
The Baltic States are also NATO.
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They may be, but if you’re expecting a larger NATO intervention in response to a Russian invasion of the Baltic States then I think you’d be sorely disappointed.
 
Napoleon said:
They may be, but if you’re expecting a larger NATO intervention in response to a Russian invasion of the Baltic States then I think you’d be sorely disappointed.
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Article 5 applies to all NATO nations. It's not a selective process.
 
Napoleon said:
We all know NATO won’t do anything if Russia decides it wants the rest of Ukraine and the Baltic States. There will never be a NATO intervention unless they invade Poland.
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What makes you so sure of that? Please explain your reasoning.
 
Westphalian said:
All pointless posturing but dangerous enough to embolden Kiev to do something stupid.

Much the same thing happened when the US gave Georgia some mis-leading signals in 2008.

But the base situation is the same - Ukraine is not a NATO member and never will be, and NATO will never spill one drop of blood in support of future Ukrainian reckless actions like violating Russian waters.
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You're right that Ukraine isn't a NATO member, but not for lack of trying.

Ukraine& - Wikipedia
 
Idiometer said:
What makes you so sure of that? Please explain your reasoning.
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A few reasons. The first is that NATO really only exists to defend Western Europe not to stop Russia from consolidating former Soviet territories back into the fold. Poland is only in the mix as a buffer. The second is that the European member States have blocked attempts to admit others out of fear that NATO would actually have to defend them. Such was the case with Georgia which has since been invaded and occupied by Russia as of 2008. So it’s clear to me at least that NATO would not risk a war - one which would rapidly involve unconventional arms - without a direct threat to Western Europe.
 
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Napoleon said:
A few reasons. The first is that NATO really only exists to defend Western Europe not to stop Russia from consolidating former Soviet territories back into the fold. Poland is only in the mix as a buffer. The second is that the European member States have blocked attempts to admit others out of fear that NATO would actually have to defend them. Such was the case with Georgia which has since been invaded and occupied by Russia as of 2008. So it’s clear to me at least that NATO would not risk a war - one which would rapidly involve unconventional arms - without a direct threat to Western Europe.
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Thank you.
 
$1000 said:
This **** always reminds me of Kennan's old interview in the NYT during the late 90s. What a prophetically brilliant man, and what a pathetic way for us to squander his legacy. Mearsheimer predicted it all too. Just senseless.


Kennan Speaks to Today's Flailing World: Is There a Solution? - Center for Citizen Initiatives
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Great post, and of course Kennan and Mearsheimer are absolutely right.


What we see today is the product of US arrogance and hubris. It thought it had become a global hegemon after 1991, policy makers and politicians too dim witted to imagine that any state could possibly ever reject subjugation to the US.

Putin's 2007 Munich speech, the military failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, the rise of China, all very explicit, should have been a wake up call - but even then the US elite sought only to double down with a policy which was patently not working, not affordable, and not wanted.

Today we have CIA tools like RV whose job it is to cheer-lead that same failed policy. As if people are stupid enough to cast aside reality in favor of the mantra that the USA is some God appointed savior of the world which seeks to combat evil out of altruism. I trust nobody listens, but the degree of brain-washed gullibility, together with the ever rising US military budget gobbling up citizens' money, suggests that the MIC is still incredibly powerful.
 
Napoleon said:
A few reasons. The first is that NATO really only exists to defend Western Europe not to stop Russia from consolidating former Soviet territories back into the fold. Poland is only in the mix as a buffer. The second is that the European member States have blocked attempts to admit others out of fear that NATO would actually have to defend them. Such was the case with Georgia which has since been invaded and occupied by Russia as of 2008. So it’s clear to me at least that NATO would not risk a war - one which would rapidly involve unconventional arms - without a direct threat to Western Europe.
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I disagree. As I write this there are QRF NATO battle-groups, including American, in each of the Baltic States. NATO nations rotate in protecting the air space of the Baltic States.

US B-52s are now practicing in Baltic State air space. The largest NATO military exercises are now held fairly regularly in the Baltic States. The US is strongly considering building "Fort Trump" in Poland.

There are now 2 NATO naval battle groups that rotate FoN exercises in the Black Sea. The HMCS Toronto (FHH333/Canada) and the SPS Santa Maria (F81/Spain) are currently docked at Odesa, Ukraine.
 
Rogue Valley said:
I disagree. As I write this there are QRF NATO battle-groups, including American, in each of the Baltic States. NATO nations rotate in protecting the air space of the Baltic States.

US B-52s are now practicing in Baltic State air space. The largest NATO military exercises are now held fairly regularly in the Baltic States. The US is strongly considering building "Fort Trump" in Poland.

There are now 2 NATO naval battle groups that rotate FoN exercises in the Black Sea. The HMCS Toronto (FHH333/Canada) and the SPS Santa Maria (F81/Spain) are currently docked at Odesa, Ukraine.
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NATO presence in the Black Sea is purely symbolic. It doesn’t hold a candle to the the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As for anything stationed in the Baltics - that would be an immediate retreat because there is no hope of winning.
 
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Napoleon said:
NATO presence in the Black Sea is purely symbolic. It doesn’t hold a candle to the the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As for anything stationed in the Baltics - that would be an immediate retreat because there is no hope of winning.
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Symbolic? No more symbolic than Russia's presence. NATO has 3 littoral nations on the Black Sea plus two allies (Georgia/Ukraine). NATO also controls the ingress/egress Bosporus Strait.

NATO Operation Sea Shield takes place April 5-13 involving Ukraine and NATO allies. The exercises will involve 14 Romanian warships and six warships from Bulgaria, Canada, Greece, Netherlands, and Turkey, with the participation of approximately 2,200 troops, who will exercise joint combat procedures against underwater, surface and air defense threats, adapted to the types of threats emerging in the Black Sea Region. Russia won't do crap about these "symbolic" maneuvers.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Symbolic? No more symbolic than Russia's presence. NATO has 3 littoral nations on the Black Sea plus two allies (Georgia/Ukraine). NATO also controls the ingress/egress Bosporus Strait.

NATO Operation Sea Shield takes place April 5-13 involving Ukraine and NATO allies. The exercises will involve 14 Romanian warships and six warships from Bulgaria, Canada, Greece, Netherlands, and Turkey, with the participation of approximately 2,200 troops, who will exercise joint combat procedures against underwater, surface and air defense threats, adapted to the types of threats emerging in the Black Sea Region. Russia won't do crap about these "symbolic" maneuvers.
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If I'm not mistaken...and I'm not...there was a legal referendum held in Crimea and the Ukrainians lost.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Symbolic? No more symbolic than Russia's presence. NATO has 3 littoral nations on the Black Sea plus two allies (Georgia/Ukraine). NATO also controls the ingress/egress Bosporus Strait.

NATO Operation Sea Shield takes place April 5-13 involving Ukraine and NATO allies. The exercises will involve 14 Romanian warships and six warships from Bulgaria, Canada, Greece, Netherlands, and Turkey, with the participation of approximately 2,200 troops, who will exercise joint combat procedures against underwater, surface and air defense threats, adapted to the types of threats emerging in the Black Sea Region. Russia won't do crap about these "symbolic" maneuvers.
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Of course not as it is purely symbolic but you’re mistaken if you think NATO stands a chance against the Russian fleet. The Russian Black Sea fleet consists of 45 warships, 11 submarines (some armed with nuclear tipped torpedos), 25,000 troops and plenty of air and missile support a stones throw away. On top of that NATO hast to contend with newly modified submarines which serve only to deploy Russia’s new superweapon - the Poseidon underwater drone.

It travels at 56 knots, can dive up to 3,280 feet, has a range of over 6,000 miles and carries a 100 megaton thermonuclear bomb. It’s designed to be a coastal city and navy port killer or, in a pinch, a fleet killer and NATO has no answer to it. Send one of those swimming down the Thames and NATO Maritime Command would be vaporized in an instant along with the rest of London.
 
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Rogue Valley said:
Symbolic? No more symbolic than Russia's presence. NATO has 3 littoral nations on the Black Sea plus two allies (Georgia/Ukraine). NATO also controls the ingress/egress Bosporus Strait.

.
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Your obsession with, and celebration of, militarisation in Europe won't win you many friends in Europe.


You are also of course lying about the Bosporus. That is not controlled by NATO, but by Turkey under international treaty. That's very different to NATO control. In addition, I wonder how much longer Turkey will remain within NATO. It is constantly in conflict with the US.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Symbolic? No more symbolic than Russia's presence. NATO has 3 littoral nations on the Black Sea plus two allies (Georgia/Ukraine). NATO also controls the ingress/egress Bosporus Strait.

NATO Operation Sea Shield takes place April 5-13 involving Ukraine and NATO allies. The exercises will involve 14 Romanian warships and six warships from Bulgaria, Canada, Greece, Netherlands, and Turkey, with the participation of approximately 2,200 troops, who will exercise joint combat procedures against underwater, surface and air defense threats, adapted to the types of threats emerging in the Black Sea Region. Russia won't do crap about these "symbolic" maneuvers.
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Either you are ignorant of military matters, or you're just deliberately being mis-leading.


Russia supports freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, and respects the rights of littoral states.


The US is not a littoral state - it is merely an intrusive trouble maker seeking to militarise and divide Europe.
 
Westphalian said:
Your obsession with, and celebration of, militarisation in Europe won't win you many friends in Europe.


You are also of course lying about the Bosporus. That is not controlled by NATO, but by Turkey under international treaty. That's very different to NATO control. In addition, I wonder how much longer Turkey will remain within NATO. It is constantly in conflict with the US.
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Last I looked, Turkey IS a NATO country. Shazaam! Turkey IS indeed a NATO country.

Member states of NATO

Don't you ever tire of being wrong?
 
Westphalian said:
Either you are ignorant of military matters, or you're just deliberately being mis-leading.


Russia supports freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, and respects the rights of littoral states.


The US is not a littoral state - it is merely an intrusive trouble maker seeking to militarise and divide Europe.
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One need not be a littoral state to sail in the Black Sea. All one has to do is follow the Montreux Convention.

Russia does not own this body of water Ivan. Nor can Russia dictate who sails there. Suck it up and deal with it.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Last I looked, Turkey IS a NATO country. Shazaam! Turkey IS indeed a NATO country.

Member states of NATO

Don't you ever tire of being wrong?
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NATO does not control the Bosporus. What don't you understand about this?


Plus, I didn't say Turkey wasn't in NATO.


Don't you ever tire of deliberately trying to mis-lead?
 
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