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Germany and Russia gas links: Trump is not only one to ask questions

He has to cut the budget to feed the people. Russia needs oil @ ~$100 a barrel to afford its budget.

With the current price of oil and Western sanctions, Putin has to make involuntary choices. He's taking hell right now for upping the retirement age to 65 for men (male life expectancy in Russia is 63).

Putin hasn't suddenly become a pacifist. He's biding his time. Europe is putting its neck on the chopping block depending on Russian altruism for its energy needs.

We've seen what Moscow thinks of international norms via Georgia, Crimea, and eastern Ukraine.

That's overly dramatic.

Putin makes the most of his limited resources, look at Trump.

But conflicts costs money, and a lot of it, and even if the price of oil goes up, he won't have much. The economy is the size of Italy's.

We're not experts, this guy is:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?44567...ael-mcfaul-discusses-book-us-russia-relations
 
That's overly dramatic.

Putin makes the most of his limited resources, look at Trump.

But conflicts costs money, and a lot of it, and even if the price of oil goes up, he won't have much. The economy is the size of Italy's.

We're not experts, this guy is:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?44567...ael-mcfaul-discusses-book-us-russia-relations

It's just plain stupid for Europe to keep floating the war machine of the Russian Federation. Putin is not your 'competitor' friend.
 
No issue? Are you kidding? That much dependence on Russia for energy will come back to haunt Germany just as dependence on OPEC oil has.

Well in the real world, most countries dont have the natural resources to be self sufficient on oil and gas... hence they will be dependent on someone as long as they dont invest in renewables.. oh wait that is what Germany and most of Europe are doing, and that too is being criticized by the usual suspects in the US..Let me guess, we should buy from the US instead and be dependent on the US instead right?
 
It's just plain stupid for Europe to keep floating the war machine of the Russian Federation.

Putin is not your 'competitor' friend.

And they're working on it.

Putin obviously is a competitor in the Great Game, that video makes that quite clear.
 
Heck, Russia has been trading with the whole world for centuries, even in times of the Soviet Union. Maybe nobody remembers the glee of American farmers in the 60s at being able to export their considerable wheat surpluses to the Reds, but I do.

And does anybody really think that today there are no trade relations of the US with Russia?

All great points.

I don't trust Trump or his motivation in bringing up the issue. I especially don't trust him on matters related to Russia. In months, even weeks from now, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump proposed some stupid pro Russia idea saying, so what, the Germans are making them rich by buying their oil. I am not doing that, I am just doing.... blah... blah... blah... MAGA
 
do you think it's all one way Trump doesn't mention the 25% tariffs on our pick up trucks, SUVs , vans and trucks compare that to the 10% on US made cars

I am for ultimately eliminating all tariffs. So is Trump.
 
since when did NATO become a economic alliance ??

It's really simple. If Germany can afford that massive multibillion dollar energy deal with Russia, they can afford to ante up 2% of their GDP for their share of the cost of running NATO.
 
I reckon GWB would have disagreed with you in his time.

Perhaps.

What with the airbase at Ramstein having been (and perhaps still being) the largest US Air Force facility outside America and soldiers having been airlifted from there to Absurdistan and the base as such having been an enormous hub for the Iraq war.

While still being at least a telecommunications relay station for US drone missions in the M.E., Afghanistan and Africa and employing around 1500 US personnel for those tasks alone.

Since Rhein -Main air base (Frankfurt) was handed back to Germany in 2005 I won't go into its significance today, just to say that still sizeable transport operations were transferred to Ramstein (two thirds) and Spangdahlem (one third).

Granted. However all of those bases where needed can also be moved to eastern European nations with relatively recent memories of what it was like to live under the iron boot of the USSR. Some of those nations are begging for US troop deployments and bases.

It also needs pointing out that Germany heavily opposed the Iraq invasion and thus did not participate but nevertheless took over the task of providing security for US bases in Germany, thus freeing US personnel.


No much to ask for considering that those US bases are in Germany primarily to provide for Western Europe's security. And as for Germany's opposition to the Iraq invasion, it's not secret why they opposed it. Germany had too many lucrative finacial contracts with the Saddam Hussein regime under the auspices of the "Food for Oil" program which was a UN scandal in itself.

Which would (at least for those times) lead to the interesting question of who needed whom more.

I was stationed on one of the US bases in Germany in the early to mid 1970s. During my deployment, one of those earlier wars broke out between Israel and one of it's Arab neighbors. The US prepared to ship arms and other military equipment to Israel using our port at Bremerhaven. The German Government afraid of what would happen to their supplies of oil from the Arab OPEC nations refused to allow that. The US ended up airlifting what they needed to send. The USA in response to the German refusal quickly threatened to pull US troops from Germany. The German government screamed bloody murder and ended up paying for renovation of many US bases, including the one where I was stationed. They certainly wanted the US bases in Germany then. I suppose we will soon find out how much want the remaining bases to stay put. Maintaining a multi billion dollar energy deal with the same Russian government they are expecting NATO to protect them from suggests that their priorities are still conflicted.
 
I agree. Donald Trump is correct. If the German government and its people consider Russia a threat to Western Europe, then it would be best for Germany to put its money where its mouth is and NOT to give up its energy security and directly pour money into the hands of a tyrannical, criminal Russian regime. And then when Russia builds up its military forces using German money, Germany then turns to the United States demanding protection (and for the United States to foot most of the bill). Germany cannot undercut NATO by funding our enemies to get relatively cheap Russian fossil fuel (and thereby make itself dependent on it), and then cynically call upon the United States and NATO to defend its interests.

Not to mention Russia has used their gas pipelines as leverage in the past. They shut down the pipeline to the Ukraine to put pressure on the Ukraine.
 
There was no invasion of Ukraine.


The most you can say is that Russia sent forces into a small part of Ukraine to help defend some Ukrainians in a civil war against other Ukrainians.


Repetition of distortions does not make them any less distortions.

I would suggest that you have either not studied history deeply or if you did, you did not learn from it. What Russia did in Ukraine was identical in tactics to what Hitler arranged in Poland. It's called building up a community of loyalists in whatever you nation you want to invade, then getting them to incite chronic violence, then claiming that you are sending troops in for their protection.. I would suggest reading the book: "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" by William Sherer.
 
Well in the real world, most countries dont have the natural resources to be self sufficient on oil and gas... hence they will be dependent on someone as long as they dont invest in renewables.. oh wait that is what Germany and most of Europe are doing, and that too is being criticized by the usual suspects in the US..Let me guess, we should buy from the US instead and be dependent on the US instead right?

It would make much more sense then spending billions with the nation you are expecting NATO to protect you from, especially considering that Russia has been known to turn off the spigot over political disagreements.
 
It's really simple. If Germany can afford that massive multibillion dollar energy deal with Russia, they can afford to ante up 2% of their GDP for their share of the cost of running NATO.
Your comment clearly shows how little you know.

The 2% is not to run Nato. NATO is fully funded according to an agreement and no one is "not pulling their weight". Yes the US pays more, but is also the biggest economy. It also ha guaranteed the top military post in a military organisation...

The 2% is a goal set years ago, for members to use 2% of their on defence spending... by 2024. Again countries have years to get their spending up to 2%.

And finally using % of GDP as a goal idiotic... why? GDP keeps going up for the most part and that means spending has to go up and up.

Om top of that throwing money at anything just to meet a 2% target is idiotic...there has to be a spending plan based on needs for national defence and NATO needs... I frankly don't see much coordination and what there is often makes no sense.

For one... should the % number include nukes? Kinda stacks the number in the favour of the US and UK and France since they all have expensive nukes.

Should the % include non NATO military spending? France spends quite a bit on troops in Africa and bases around the world. UK and US are involved in non NATO actions... should the cost be included? Why should the US % have the cost for their bases in Asia? That ain't NATO business...



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Your comment clearly shows how little you know.

The 2% is not to run Nato. NATO is fully funded according to an agreement and no one is "not pulling their weight". Yes the US pays more, but is also the biggest economy. It also ha guaranteed the top military post in a military organisation...

The 2% is a goal set years ago, for members to use 2% of their on defence spending... by 2024. Again countries have years to get their spending up to 2%.

And finally using % of GDP as a goal idiotic... why? GDP keeps going up for the most part and that means spending has to go up and up.

Om top of that throwing money at anything just to meet a 2% target is idiotic...there has to be a spending plan based on needs for national defence and NATO needs... I frankly don't see much coordination and what there is often makes no sense.

For one... should the % number include nukes? Kinda stacks the number in the favour of the US and UK and France since they all have expensive nukes.

Should the % include non NATO military spending? France spends quite a bit on troops in Africa and bases around the world. UK and US are involved in non NATO actions... should the cost be included? Why should the US % have the cost for their bases in Asia? That ain't NATO business...



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Yes exactly that was SEATO's business

(Note spending not tied to GDP but proportional to overall budget)
Budget
Average of contributions to civil and military budgets between 1958 and 1973 [23] :

United States: 25%
United Kingdom: 16%
France: 13.5%
Australia: 13.5%
Pakistan: 8%
Philippines: 8%
Thailand: 8%
New Zealand: 8%

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/seato

Dissolved in 1972 vvv
Consequently, questions of dissolving the organization arose. Pakistan withdrew in 1972, after East Pakistan seceded and became Bangladesh on 26 March 1971.[8] France withdrew financial support in 1975,[12] and the SEATO council agreed to the phasing out of the organization.[32] After a final exercise on 20 February 1976, the organization was formally dissolved on 30 June 1977

Of course the Indo Pacific is now again becoming of interest to everyone.
 
~..............those bases where needed can also be moved to eastern European nations with relatively recent memories of what it was like to live under the iron boot of the USSR. Some of those nations are begging for US troop deployments and bases.
I wasn't arguing the feasibility of moving US bases to Eastern Europe (and I won't go into it here), I was responding to your take that Germany needs the bases more than the US needs to have them there. I've already addressed how the bases served both the Absurdistan and the Iraq war(s) and will just add that it served BOTH Iraq wars, the first being commonly referred to as the first (aka Gulf War, aka Desert Shield).

None of the three having anything to do with defending Europe or Germany specifically but not forgetting that in the case of Absurdistan NATO statutes were nevertheless successfully invoked (9-11 attack having justified invoking NATO article 5).
No much to ask for considering that those US bases are in Germany primarily to provide for Western Europe's security.
see above
And as for Germany's opposition to the Iraq invasion, it's not secret why they opposed it. Germany had too many lucrative finacial contracts with the Saddam Hussein regime under the auspices of the "Food for Oil" program which was a UN scandal in itself.
What is(was) of far greater importance: the fact that Germany did not believe the reasons for the invasion as being lodged in actual reality, not after having burned their very own Iraqi informant on Saddan's WMD's as being a total dud. And where they'd initially passed on his information to the US, they duly informed the very same shortly after of having burned him completely and his intelligence as totally unreliable. To no avail, as we know and not just since Powell admitted to it all.

Not to be misunderstood here, there were indeed German business interests in Iraq but to cite them as the main reason for Germany opposing the invasion (and thus refusing to participate) is highly disingenuous.

I was stationed on one of the US bases in Germany in the early to mid 1970s. During my deployment, one of those earlier wars broke out between Israel and one of it's Arab neighbors. The US prepared to ship arms and other military equipment to Israel using our port at Bremerhaven. The German Government afraid of what would happen to their supplies of oil from the Arab OPEC nations refused to allow that. The US ended up airlifting what they needed to send. The USA in response to the German refusal quickly threatened to pull US troops from Germany.
You are seriously attempting to claim that the US was going to go the ocean way in supplying Israel in a war that lasted barely 19 days? With the Yom-Kippur war (the only one that would fit your otherwise vague description) having caught US intelligence by surprise so much that the decision to re-supply Israel with (mainly) munitions from Germany could not be taken before the war was into its third day?

In actual reality the main airlifts to replenish Israeli material losses came straight from the US, with Portugal supplying a refuelling point on the Azores, for the Galaxy transporters as well as the Phantoms that gave both protection along the Med. as well as serving as replacements, once arrived.

Bremerhaven port my flippin' foot, the average transit time for ocean transport between Bremerhaven and Ashdod is 10-12 days.
The German government screamed bloody murder and ended up paying for renovation of many US bases, including the one where I was stationed.
It didn't scream blue murder until after Yom Kippur war was over. And it did that over US materials having been withdrawn from Germany (as resupplies for Israel) without prior information. Irrespective of which it had nevertheless given the green light by Oct-16, 10 days into the war, 9 days before its end and 7 days after the US had already acted wrt supplies from Germany.

They certainly wanted the US bases in Germany then.
I've no idea why Bremerhaven was renovated but Yom Kippur had precious little to do with it and shipping anything via ocean vessel has already been addressed.
I suppose we will soon find out how much want the remaining bases to stay put.
No doubt we will, the local population would probably very much like things to stay as they are, alone for reasons of local economy.
Maintaining a multi billion dollar energy deal with the same Russian government they are expecting NATO to protect them from suggests that their priorities are still conflicted.
Isn't it great then how the US does no business with Russia at all these days? Or (god forbid) do they?

What with the Prez. having been the toughest on Russia ever, such conflicted priorities at least don't appear to arise.

Or do we have a case here (not confined to any nation but rather practised by all) of "do as I say and not as I do"?
 
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Here we go, sanctions on Nordstream 2 on the way

US bill aims to boost LNG exports to Europe as politics over Russia swirl
New legislation seeks to promote the expansion of US LNG exports to Europe at the expense of Russian pipeline gas to the region.

A bill introduced Wednesday by US Senator John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican, would impose mandatory sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream II gas pipeline and expedite the export of US natural gas to NATO allies
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/us-bill-aims-to-boost-lng-exports-to-europe-as-politics-over-russia-swirl/
 
Here we go, sanctions on Nordstream 2 on the way

US bill aims to boost LNG exports to Europe as politics over Russia swirl

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/us-bill-aims-to-boost-lng-exports-to-europe-as-politics-over-russia-swirl/

Well yes - everyone knows the US game is to encourage Europe to buy US LNG instead of Russian gas.

The only problem is the cost. European energy costs are already generally very high thanks to 'green energy' subsidies. Politically it's a tough sell in Europe for ruling elites who already have other huge problems in their hands.
 
European companies and institutions don't want to suffer US sanctions. Why die on the Russia hill? I think they'll drop their Nordstream-2 participation.


German business doesn't want to pay 25% more for US LNG either.


The real question is whether Europe is prepared to lie down in the face of US attempts to foist its own un-competitive and expensive gas exports on an un-willing market.
 
European companies and institutions don't want to suffer US sanctions. Why die on the Russia hill? I think they'll drop their Nordstream-2 participation.
Won't happen. Sanctions against Russia (of another nature) are one thing, sanctions against Europe quite a different one.

Only way the US can sell its LNG (for profit, forget about supposed concerns about European dependencies) is via the price.

If European countries were to bow to any such bullying (merely proposed so far and far from having passed into legislation), they might as well disband the whole Union and apply for statehood in the US. No way.

As to the idiotic scenario (painted by some) of Russia closing the valve on Europe to gain concessions, good luck with that. Shooting oneself in the foot is currently not the favourite pastime of leaders in Eastern Europe, it's more to be seen on the other side of the globe. Germany, so often cited as being dependant on Russian gas for 70 pct of its energy needs, in reality covers just around 10 pct of its needs from that. In case that falls flat, Qatar, Nigeria and Algeria are just waiting and are set to play a greater role in future anyway, both by EU design and their own.

Of course US LG will be of interest in the near future as well (over-dependence on just one or two sources is never prudent) but definitely not on account of political pressure. That would have the exact opposite effect on US business interests and business minds in the US know this.

Gas imports are declining anyway not just for Russian gas but generally. Not dramatically but gradually. Simply because the output of alternative energy is rising.

As to "giving billions to Russia to finance its wars", don't make me laugh. Let the current US administrations itself look at what trade it is still conducting with Russia, despite sanctions.
 
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Well yes - everyone knows the US game is to encourage Europe to buy US LNG instead of Russian gas.

The only problem is the cost. European energy costs are already generally very high thanks to 'green energy' subsidies. Politically it's a tough sell in Europe for ruling elites who already have other huge problems in their hands.

Well, that is true however I think what Russia is probably already looking at is which countries in Europe have the highest economic exposure to the US, similar to the chart below but only for Europe and including small countries. Because what makes the most sense to me is a reward and penalty system. Sanctions will penalise countries for buying gas via Nordstream 2 and countries will be rewarded economically via trade or trade benefits (lower tariffs) etc to make up for the highter price of US gas

5ac5dcc287826b2c008b45cd-1200.jpg
 
Won't happen. Sanctions against Russia (of another nature) are one thing, sanctions against Europe quite a different one.

I don't buy it. But I no longer live in Europe either. You may be right Chagos. We'll see how this plays out.

But I do believe Europe is putting its collective head in the proverbial noose with its increasing dependence on Russian energy.

How quickly people forget that Putin quite easily eschews treaties and obligations when it suits him (and Russia) to do so.
 
I don't buy it. But I no longer live in Europe either. You may be right Chagos. We'll see how this plays out.

But I do believe Europe is putting its collective head in the proverbial noose with its increasing dependence on Russian energy.

How quickly people forget that Putin quite easily eschews treaties and obligations when it suits him (and Russia) to do so.
I was never a friend of increasing Russian gas either but I'm realistic enough to see that one will always be dependent on somebody if one isn't sitting on one's own natural reserves. Being dependent on the US is just as unhealthy as we currently see (or would be if it came to that).

So I'm all for greater diversification of supply sources.

As to Russia's noose, hanging whoever you depend upon for hard currency is something that Putin is too smart to do, he'll gladly leave it to others to ruin their own economy that way. Probably hopping with glee right now over the US-European trade war that seems to be in the offing.
 
I don't buy it. But I no longer live in Europe either. You may be right Chagos. We'll see how this plays out.

But I do believe Europe is putting its collective head in the proverbial noose with its increasing dependence on Russian energy.

How quickly people forget that Putin quite easily eschews treaties and obligations when it suits him (and Russia) to do so.
Well either we put a Russian noose or an American one... at least with the Russian it is cheaper.

As for Putin not sticking to agreements... he has a far better track record than the US under Trump....

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