Danish Local Elections.. a precursor for something to come in Europe?

Some background. In 1973, the Progress Party stormed into the Danish Parliament as the biggest right wing party with 16% of the votes. The Progress Party was anti-Tax, anti-Muslim (later on), and anti-Immigration. The party later on had a civil war that split the party, where the main people went to what is now called the Danish Peoples Party (O). The Progress Party was the first far right mainstream party in Europe.. before Front National, before AfD and all those well known parties and the Peoples Party in Denmark is the Progress Party 2.0.

The 2017 results

Valgresultat - Kommunalvalg 2017 - TV 2 Nyheder - TV 2

Yea it is in Danish.

However the election results are quite interesting. For the first time in a long time, there is a serious difference between the national election results and local results when it comes to the relative size of parties. By this I mean, that the size of your Parliamentary seats/election results, usually could be correlated to the local elections, at least for the big parties. Not so much any more.

By this I mean, that for the Social Democrats (A), the 2015 national election results, gave 26% of the votes, so the local elections should be in the same ballpark. The local election gave them 32% of the vote. The government party Venstre (V) got 19% at the national election in 2015 and 23% in the 2017 local elections. So again in the same ballpark.

The Peoples Party (O) in 2011 they had 12% of the votes on national level and 8.5% at local elections.. again in the same ballpark. However after the last national election they became the biggest right wing party by going from 12% in 2011 to 21% in 2015 which made them the biggest right wing party in Denmark.

So one would expect that the trend from national elections would show at local elections. It did for the Social Democrats (A) and Venstre (V) and for most parties. Only one that does not "fit" is the Konservative Party (C) but that is due to some historical districting rules and an end of a long running internal civil war.. a bit hard to explain. That is why at there is a rather large difference in their local and general election results.

But back to the Peoples Party (O).. with 21% of the vote in the 2015 general election, and the correlation.. that the Peoples Party (0) was going to have another great election.. Did not happen, they lost votes to only 8.8% of the votes at local elections vs 21% at the general elections. To be brutally frank, it is a shock.

Now full disclosure, there has been a scandal involving fraud and misappropriation of EU funds in the Peoples Party since the last general election and that does have an impact, but the whole scandal broke over a year ago, and was not much mentioned in the local elections and did not involve 99% of the people running. But so far no one has been charged or arrested as the investigations are still going on. Some also say, that some local counties/towns had coalition between Peoples Party (O) and the Social Democrats (A), which pissed off many.. but that is local stuff, that should not influence results outside those few areas.

What is interesting for the election geeks like me, is the fact that the far right took a relative beating considering that most right wing parties have gone from strength to strength across Europe and in Denmark the far right party is in fact the second biggest party in national elections and it was fully expected by everyone, that they would gain tons of votes and seats. Question is if the scandal hurt them or if people are just fed up with far right stupidity, aka no real policies other than blaming Muslims and foreigners. Will be interesting to see more local elections across Europe over the next few years, to see if the Danish election was an outlier or the start of something.

Frankly I am a bit in shock and a bit proud that the racist facist pigs in the Peoples Party got their asses handed to them.. Sorry if people are not interested in this, but I thought it would be a good discussion subject.

PeteEU said:

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However the election results are quite interesting. For the first time in a long time, there is a serious difference between the national election results and local results when it comes to the relative size of parties. By this I mean, that the size of your Parliamentary seats/election results, usually could be correlated to the local elections, at least for the big parties. Not so much any more................~

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But back to the Peoples Party (O).. with 21% of the vote in the 2015 general election, and the correlation.. that the Peoples Party (0) was going to have another great election.. Did not happen, they lost votes to only 8.8% of the votes at local elections vs 21% at the general elections. To be brutally frank, it is a shock.

Now full disclosure, there has been a scandal involving fraud and misappropriation of EU funds in the Peoples Party since the last general election and that does have an impact, but the whole scandal broke over a year ago, and was not much mentioned in the local elections and did not involve 99% of the people running. But so far no one has been charged or arrested as the investigations are still going on. Some also say, that some local counties/towns had coalition between Peoples Party (O) and the Social Democrats (A), which pissed off many.. but that is local stuff, that should not influence results outside those few areas.

What is interesting for the election geeks like me, is the fact that the far right took a relative beating considering that most right wing parties have gone from strength to strength across Europe and in Denmark the far right party is in fact the second biggest party in national elections and it was fully expected by everyone, that they would gain tons of votes and seats. Question is if the scandal hurt them or if people are just fed up with far right stupidity, aka no real policies other than blaming Muslims and foreigners. ......................~
Frankly I am a bit in shock and a bit proud that the racist facist pigs in the Peoples Party got their asses handed to them.. Sorry if people are not interested in this, but I thought it would be a good discussion subject.

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above shortened to meet character limit.

Admittedly my knowledge of the political landscape of Denmark, aside from occasional news items, rests largely on having watched "Borgen".

IOW I'm virtually clueless over it.:lol:

That notwithstanding:mrgreen:, no idea over whether the regional elections there demonstrate a trend (for Europe or Denmark) away from the general right wing incompetence, yet the general trend one can apparently see in the medium to long run (at least in W. Europe) appears to be that parties eventually get evaluated upon their actions.

Fire brand propaganda that appeals to high spirits is all very well, but if that's all that can be counted at the end of the day (read: after a certain period in parliament), the deficits in handling actual woes finally fall back on the holders.

If I want to compare this current Danish development to that of other countries in W. Europe, Spain won't do on account of totally different parameters governing it (Catalan crisis quite apart) but Germany comes to mind as being one facing the results of recent elections.

The trend there is quite the opposite in that regional elections have been a good performance theatre for the right wing AfD (albeit more in the victim-martyr-role that some in the "East" are prone to), where its expected first time entry into the national parliament, however, was nowhere near as resounding as its "Eastern" successes led many to believe.

Not to make light of the fact that its entry has contributed even more to the "fractioning" of parliament that has Germany facing its current stalemate.

I happen to know that the Danish parliament is a one chamber job, the equivalent of a second chamber, constituted in accordance with regional results and thru which any law would have to pass, thus being absent and not providing a regulative and corrective instance as the Bundesrat (Chamber of Regions) can and often does provide for Germany.

So, does the result of regional elections have an impact on the Folketing in any other way????

As to stupidity of right wing parties (and I don't mean ultra-conservatives but rather the more extremist kind) causing disillusionment, well if we don't see it tomorrow, we'll see it next week. The one thing (maybe two things) they have any political programme on at all in France, Denmark, Netherlands or Germany is usually twenty-five to fifty things too little. IOW viable political success lies well beyond just preaching and then practising xenophobia as the sole raison d'être.

People will buy it for a certain amount of time but not forever.

Chagos said:

If I want to compare this current Danish development to that of other countries in W. Europe, Spain won't do on account of totally different parameters governing it (Catalan crisis quite apart) but Germany comes to mind as being one facing the results of recent elections.

The trend there is quite the opposite in that regional elections have been a good performance theatre for the right wing AfD (albeit more in the victim-martyr-role that some in the "East" are prone to), where its expected first time entry into the national parliament, however, was nowhere near as resounding as its "Eastern" successes led many to believe.

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Actually I would say that the AfD result was about as expected. Their main base is in the east, and that is where they got their most representation if I remember right. AfD overall vote in the country would get diluted by western results where they would not get as many votes as the east.... it was here many "experts" went wrong, by thinking that the west had just as many fans as the east. So to make an accurate comparison for AfD, you would need local election results from all regions, find the voting number then and then compare it to national results. Now problem is of course AfD is a new party, so we only have 1 real national election result to compare too.. not so in Denmark. Remember local elections vs national elections... it is ballpark comparison.. 20ish vs 20ish, plus minus 5% point. In the Danish case it is 8.8% vs 21%.. which is a huge margin.

So, does the result of regional elections have an impact on the Folketing in any other way????

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No influence... well other than being a negotiation partner in the over all budget of the state. But the point is, that there has always been a correlation between overall voting numbers in local vs national .. basically if a party gets 20% in national elections it will get approx the same in local elections (overall). It is the first time in a long time, if at all, that there was this kind of large discrepancy.

As to stupidity of right wing parties (and I don't mean ultra-conservatives but rather the more extremist kind) causing disillusionment, well if we don't see it tomorrow, we'll see it next week. The one thing (maybe two things) they have any political programme on at all in France, Denmark, Netherlands or Germany is usually twenty-five to fifty things too little. IOW viable political success lies well beyond just preaching and then practising xenophobia as the sole raison d'être.

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The far-right parties in European countries have all the same agenda. You can take the Front National policy book and basically transplant it to Holland or Denmark without much "local gerry rigging". That is why.. first party of its kind was the Popular Party of Denmark in 1973, followed over the years by Front National in 1981, Sweden Democrats in 1988, Northern League in 1989 (Italy), UKIP in 1993, Wilders nutters in 2006, AfD in 2013.. all running on the same platform. Their growth has been on the backs of each other, and so the question is... will their downfall also be so?

Just to address

PeteEU said:

~....................No influence... well other than being a negotiation partner in the over all budget of the state. But the point is, that there has always been a correlation between overall voting numbers in local vs national .. basically if a party gets 20% in national elections it will get approx the same in local elections (overall). It is the first time in a long time, if at all, that there was this kind of large discrepancy.

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From times I've lived in Germany (to stay with that example) and from what I see from afar today, that country has always shown the opposite effect, namely that regional (federal state) elections barely ever reflected the results of overall national elections.

Long before the AfD.

The far-right parties in European countries have all the same agenda. You can take the Front National policy book and basically transplant it to Holland or Denmark without much "local gerry rigging". That is why.. first party of its kind was the Popular Party of Denmark in 1973, followed over the years by Front National in 1981, Sweden Democrats in 1988, Northern League in 1989 (Italy), UKIP in 1993, Wilders nutters in 2006, AfD in 2013.. all running on the same platform. Their growth has been on the backs of each other, and so the question is... will their downfall also be so?

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Hard to say but one thing appears to be crystallizing. Whether in France, Netherlands, Germany (there least of all), or even Spain, their anti-Europe course isn't selling. I'd assume that the Danish far right pursues some similar ambitions and has as hard a time selling that as well.

What the rightists won't acknowledge is that "immigration" is the least of anyone's concern. "Anyone" here being the majority of any country's people.

As always it's all about "bread". Those that have it want to keep it, those having less of it want more. And linking either goal to keeping filthy furriners out is too transparent a ruse for the respective majorities not to see thru.

Stuff like being "future proof" by digitalisation, enhanced education standards, technology, viable health care etc. play a far greater role and the European righties show as having no program whatsoever in addressing any of that.

Chagos said:

Just to addressFrom times I've lived in Germany (to stay with that example) and from what I see from afar today, that country has always shown the opposite effect, namely that regional (federal state) elections barely ever reflected the results of overall national elections.

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Even if you add all regions up? Sure there will always be region/local differences.. cities are left wing, country side right wing.. but when everything is added up? hmm might be an interesting thing to look into over the weekend for a number of countries.

Hard to say but one thing appears to be crystallizing. Whether in France, Netherlands, Germany (there least of all), or even Spain, their anti-Europe course isn't selling. I'd assume that the Danish far right pursues some similar ambitions and has as hard a time selling that as well.

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Oh that is where you get it wrong. These parties dont start out as anti-Europe (expect UKIP). They start usually due to an economic issue, that is then blamed on something. For example, the Popular Party in Denmark, did not start out as an anti-EU anti-immigration party. It started out as a populist anti-tax anti-establishment party. It is especially the latter that is important. FN started in part due to the oil crisis, but did not get much power until the second one had passed and their line was anti-establishment. The line that goes through all these types of parties is anti-establishment and blaming someone/something. For the Popular Party, the anti-EU stuff came much later, but by the late 70s, the founder had gone totally bat crazy and blamed everything on Muslims.. a policy and ideology that warped into anti-immigration rhetoric.

I think the only real anti-EU party is UKIP, where as the rest usually start out by blaming non whites and non christians and then when that does not work, blame the EU. The kicker is of course when these parties blame immigration rises on the EU.. and start putting brothers/sisters and cousins against each other to gain political power. It is basically divide and conquer. Have you ever asked or debated a real anti-immigrant person on the facts? Most of their views are based on myths and not actual facts... take the "the immigrants force down wages" bull****. No they dont, since there is a minimum wage system in every country. If you want to blame anyone, blame the minimum wage laws.

I think that while results in national elections and local elections will commonly lead to similar levels of supports for national parties, there will be examples of variations or exceptional cases.

With a lot of rapidly growing parties (like many of the right-wing parties across Europe), they can do well at a first round of local elections off the back of their national profile but then struggle to retain those seats once their representatives efforts (or lack thereof) in their local areas are taken in to account by voters. It’s sort of the reverse of some parties which can maintain strong local results even if they’re struggling nationally, with a strong base and a focus on good local governance (the Liberal Democrats in the UK being an example).

I think some of these parties actively use local elections to try to raise their national profile, since they can get a lot of media attention for a relatively low cost with local campaigns in targeted areas, something they may struggle to do during national elections when established parties and mainstream issues take precedence.

PeteEU said:

Even if you add all regions up? Sure there will always be region/local differences.. cities are left wing, country side right wing.. but when everything is added up? hmm might be an interesting thing to look into over the weekend for a number of countries.

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Well, I can only speak for Germany from the times I spent there, and those were years ago. Nevertheless, where discrepancies in results between regional and national elections were never all that particularly severe, they were nevertheless there. Basically (it would appear) because local interests often differed from the overall national interests.

If you look at how the Bundesrat (the upper chamber representing regional governments) is constituted, you'll notice that the only federal state that has sole reign of just one party is Bavaria. What with the CSU ruling Neanderthal-Land :mrgreen:supremely (but recently under more and more pressure).

Every other federal state being governed by some sort of coalition that does not at all reflect the national government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesrat_of_Germany#Composition

Oh that is where you get it wrong. These parties dont start out as anti-Europe (expect UKIP). They start usually due to an economic issue, that is then blamed on something. For example, the Popular Party in Denmark, did not start out as an anti-EU anti-immigration party. It started out as a populist anti-tax anti-establishment party. It is especially the latter that is important. FN started in part due to the oil crisis, but did not get much power until the second one had passed and their line was anti-establishment. The line that goes through all these types of parties is anti-establishment and blaming someone/something. For the Popular Party, the anti-EU stuff came much later, but by the late 70s, the founder had gone totally bat crazy and blamed everything on Muslims.. a policy and ideology that warped into anti-immigration rhetoric.

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Yeah, interesting. But to stay with the Teutonic example..............>

I think the only real anti-EU party is UKIP, where as the rest usually start out by blaming non whites and non christians and then when that does not work, blame the EU.

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<..............the AfD of Germany started out as anti EU and anti-€, presenting economic arguments in the process and not all of them completely bad (read as "at least worthy of address"). Salvaging Greece obviously lent additional fuel to this, but the EU-critical stance preceded even that. What's more they had a bunch of true economists aboard at the time and actually provided something of meat to argue over, even where one might have disagreed.

But they were all ousted (founding fathers included) when they tried to block the influx of Nazis that were looking for a more viable platform. By now they've become exactly what you describe above.

The kicker is of course when these parties blame immigration rises on the EU.. and start putting brothers/sisters and cousins against each other to gain political power. It is basically divide and conquer. Have you ever asked or debated a real anti-immigrant person on the facts? Most of their views are based on myths and not actual facts...

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I have a few (very few) UKIPers and AfDers in the greater vicinity down here. And I'm glad it's the "greater" vicinity since that makes it easier to avoid those morons. Being anti-EU and residing in Spain at the same time doesn't really seem to offend their sense of logic.

take the "the immigrants force down wages" bull****. No they dont, since there is a minimum wage system in every country. If you want to blame anyone, blame the minimum wage laws.

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...........or those circumventing them on the sly, by paying less than is prescribed.

PeteEU said:

What is interesting for the election geeks like me, is the fact that the far right took a relative beating considering that most right wing parties have gone from strength to strength across Europe and in Denmark the far right party is in fact the second biggest party in national elections and it was fully expected by everyone, that they would gain tons of votes and seats. Question is if the scandal hurt them or if people are just fed up with far right stupidity, aka no real policies other than blaming Muslims and foreigners. Will be interesting to see more local elections across Europe over the next few years, to see if the Danish election was an outlier or the start of something.

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I think it is probably a little of both. The right-wing parties have become as voiceless and as meaningless as the left parties have. There is no real alternative any more, especially when conduct themselves without integrity (misuse of funds etc). Blaming Muslims and foreigners is an easy thing to do, but just spewing the same rhetoric without relating it to a wider ideological framework just makes DF look clueless. Which they are. All of Danish bourgeois politics, like bourgeois politics everywhere is dominated by the same technocratic, empty rhetoric. They're not ideological leaders and visionaries, they're managers and technocrats and people are seeing through this.

Bevægelsen said:

I think it is probably a little of both. The right-wing parties have become as voiceless and as meaningless as the left parties have. There is no real alternative any more, especially when conduct themselves without integrity (misuse of funds etc). Blaming Muslims and foreigners is an easy thing to do, but just spewing the same rhetoric without relating it to a wider ideological framework just makes DF look clueless. Which they are. All of Danish bourgeois politics, like bourgeois politics everywhere is dominated by the same technocratic, empty rhetoric. They're not ideological leaders and visionaries, they're managers and technocrats and people are seeing through this.

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There is an alternative... no literally, a party called Alternative , which did quite well relatively speaking!

PeteEU said:

There is an alternative... no literally, a party called Alternative , which did quite well relatively speaking!

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Jeg kender dem. They're not really an alternative though, which I think people recognise. None of the leaders of these parties are visionaries, they're just technocrats and I think people are yearning for something profound.

Bevægelsen said:

Jeg kender dem. They're not really an alternative though, which I think people recognise. None of the leaders of these parties are visionaries, they're just technocrats and I think people are yearning for something profound.

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Of course not.. was just word play