The EU and Brexit - strength in numbers

Lafayette · Nov 22, 2017

The UK has progressed economically pretty much in lockstep with the rest of Europe for over more than half-a-century. What Europeans fail to understand presently is that the EU is a "country". We make the mistake of thinking that spoken languages differentiate countries. They don't really, only economies accomplish that feat effectively.

The heartbeat of any "economy" is its population in numbers that promotes Demand for goods/services. That is its fundamental economic criterion worth considering when asking the question, "Brexit - quo vadis?"

The EU is a common-market (at present) of 743 million souls. With Brexit, it is less 56M (the UK and Wales as well as maybe Northern Ireland); whilst Scotland may well vote again (as they did with Brexit) to remain in the EU. Thus the EU has a post-Brexit population of about 690 million people. That is, a population of 325M more than the US - meaning a population double that of the US!

The GDP ranked-distribution (2016) of the world's present economies is (in nominal GDP dollars, 2016):
US - 18.6T
EU - 16.5T
China - 11.2T

Population-levels in comparing comparative market-economies of roughly similar characteristics is key to understanding eventual economic potential - all else being comparable. At the end of the day, we are all consumers. The EU as well as China both still have much economic development ahead of them. But inevitably the classification above in terms of GDP likely will be China, EU and the US as the top three (and in that given order).

Which leaves the UK and Wales on the outside looking in. For the future of its peoples, both the UK and Wales should stop this present Brexit silliness.

Leaving the EU is not just stoopid but potentially an economic disaster and the UK should fall back in line. There is strength in numbers* - always has been, always will be ...

*Preferring to drink beer in pints rather than liters is simply not a good-enough excuse for leaving! ;^)

Sweden · Nov 22, 2017

Lafayette said:
The UK has progressed economically pretty much in lockstep with the rest of Europe for over more than half-a-century. What Europeans fail to understand presently is that the EU is a "country". We make the mistake of thinking that spoken languages differentiate countries. They don't really, only economies accomplish that feat effectively.

The heartbeat of any "economy" is its population in numbers that promotes Demand for goods/services. That is its fundamental economic criterion worth considering when asking the question, "Brexit - quo vadis?"

The EU is a common-market (at present) of 743 million souls. With Brexit, it is less 56M (the UK and Wales as well as maybe Northern Ireland); whilst Scotland may well vote again (as they did with Brexit) to remain in the EU. Thus the EU has a post-Brexit population of about 690 million people. That is, a population of 325M more than the US - meaning a population double that of the US!

The GDP ranked-distribution (2016) of the world's present economies is (in nominal GDP dollars, 2016):
US - 18.6T
EU - 16.5T
China - 11.2T

Population-levels in comparing comparative market-economies of roughly similar characteristics is key to understanding eventual economic potential - all else being comparable. At the end of the day, we are all consumers. The EU as well as China both still have much economic development ahead of them. But inevitably the classification above in terms of GDP likely will be China, EU and the US as the top three (and in that given order).

Which leaves the UK and Wales on the outside looking in. For the future of its peoples, both the UK and Wales should stop this present Brexit silliness.

Leaving the EU is not just stoopid but potentially an economic disaster and the UK should fall back in line. There is strength in numbers* - always has been, always will be ...

*Preferring to drink beer in pints rather than liters is simply not a good-enough excuse for leaving! ;^)

Wales - and Scotland, and Northern Ireland - is part of the UK. Happily there is not the slightest chance of reversing what you, nonsensically, call "this Brexit silliness". Freedom from the moribund EU is certain.

Lafayette · Nov 22, 2017

Sweden said:
Wales - and Scotland, and Northern Ireland - is part of the UK. Happily there is not the slightest chance of reversing what you, nonsensically, call "this Brexit silliness". Freedom from the moribund EU is certain.

Scotland is almost certain to leave - the referendum is programmed already for early 2019. The Scots just want to see the terms of Brexit negotiated with the EU beforehand. And those terms should be made public soon enough.

Another referendum repairing the damage and it's done for Scotland. The UK can like-it or lump-it ...

PS: What's the money on the remainder of GB knocking on the EU-door once again in another 5/7 years?

Sweden · Nov 22, 2017

Lafayette said:
Another referendum repairing the damage and it's done ...

The British public now knows a lot more about their 'friends' in the EU. If there was a second referendum there would be an even greater majority for leaving.

Lafayette · Nov 22, 2017

Sweden said:
The British public now knows a lot more about their 'friends' in the EU. If there was a second referendum there would be an even greater majority for leaving.

Bollocks!

But, let's see how the referendum election goes ...

HonestJoe · Nov 22, 2017

Lafayette said:
Scotland is almost certain to leave - the referendum is programmed already for early 2019. The Scots just want to see the terms of Brexit negotiated with the EU beforehand. And those terms should be made public soon enough.

Scottish independence isn’t going to happen. Opinion for independence peaked just before the independence referendum but has significantly dropped since. The SNP missed the surge and isn’t in a political position to push for independence again in the foreseeable future. If anything, the ongoing mess that is Brexit is only going to put a lot of Scots off going through the same kind of process in leaving the UK, especially at the same time or in the immediate aftermath.

PeteEU · Nov 22, 2017

HonestJoe said:
Scottish independence isn’t going to happen. Opinion for independence peaked just before the independence referendum but has significantly dropped since. The SNP missed the surge and isn’t in a political position to push for independence again in the foreseeable future. If anything, the ongoing mess that is Brexit is only going to put a lot of Scots off going through the same kind of process in leaving the UK, especially at the same time or in the immediate aftermath.

Scottish independence is dependent on how Brexit goes. Same with Northern Ireland and even Wales. The current government loves to take more and more power to England, and that will piss off the other regions. We shall see.

joG · Nov 22, 2017

Sweden said:
The British public now knows a lot more about their 'friends' in the EU. If there was a second referendum there would be an even greater majority for leaving.

To think the economic impact of Brexit could be zero, if the EU could afford to let their citizens see the a member that left prosper. But the EU has nearly no political added value and so must demonstrate its economic albeit wrongheaded clout. To think that the Brits are EU citizens almost half of which are living in a country exiting against their will and the EU politicians purposely want to do them harm. My goodness. They are EU citizens.

Sweden · Nov 22, 2017

joG said:
To think the economic impact of Brexit could be zero, if the EU could afford to let their citizens see the a member that left prosper. But the EU has nearly no political added value and so must demonstrate its economic albeit wrongheaded clout. To think that the Brits are EU citizens almost half of which are living in a country exiting against their will and the EU politicians purposely want to do them harm. My goodness. They are EU citizens.

The Brits were never asked if they wanted to be 'EU citizens'. The very term is nonsensical: one can be a citizen of a state and the EU is not a state, despite its bogus flag and anthem.

After a year of EU attempts at blackmail and extortion nowhere near half of Brits want to stay in that corrupt and wasteful institution. Even the Europhiliac Liberal Democrats (sic) have stopped clamouring for a 'second referendum' because they know that the weight of British opinion towards the EU has shifted from dislike to contempt and revulsion.

PeteEU · Nov 22, 2017

Sweden said:
The Brits were never asked if they wanted to be 'EU citizens'.

Yes they were.

The very term is nonsensical: one can be a citizen of a state and the EU is not a state, despite its bogus flag and anthem.

So Americans cant be citizens of say California and the US? How about Spanish being citizens of Andalusia and Spain? Or Brits being citizens of Wales and the UK? And regardless the EU is not a state, it is an organisation, where members citizens have the same privileges.

After a year of EU attempts at blackmail and extortion nowhere near half of Brits want to stay in that corrupt and wasteful institution. Even the Europhiliac Liberal Democrats (sic) have stopped clamouring for a 'second referendum' because they know that the weight of British opinion towards the EU has shifted from dislike to contempt and revulsion.

No they have not. As for the EU "blackmailing and extorting" the UK.. yea, it is the EU that is wanting full access to the EU market but not paying any membership fees and not living up to EU regulations.. not the UK.

Chagos · Nov 22, 2017

PeteEU said:
Yes they were.

Nope, only time the question was asked (I mean really asked as per referendum) was wrt membership in the EC.

1975.

Lafayette · Nov 23, 2017

PeteEU said:
Scottish independence is dependent on how Brexit goes. Same with Northern Ireland and even Wales. The current government loves to take more and more power to England, and that will piss off the other regions. We shall see.

Quite right. Or Right. Whichever.

Downing Street governments cant think beyond London, as if it were the same power-center as it was once one/two centuries ago. That is no longer the case, since a while. The European economic and military power-center has shifted eastward to Brussels, and Strasbourg. Both economically and militarily.

(Besides, what did Europe really expect? That after two world-wars and defeats, Germany would just lick its wounds and not make a comeback. It was France and Germany that motored the Common Market and then the European Union. The UK just watched on the sidelines and - finally - tagged along.)

Like it or not, the Brits are still "Europeans" - until they find a way of unhooking all the islands, whereupon they can paddle themselves elsewhere on this globe ...

PS: If ever push-came-to-shove, any government in London would come screaming to the EU for "help". So, somebody/anybody, convince Putin to have his atomic-subs circling the main island consisting of England and Wales - and we'll see what happens.

Sweden · Nov 23, 2017

Lafayette said:
Quite right. Or Right. Whichever.

Downing Street governments cant think beyond London, as if it were the same power-center as it was once one/two centuries ago. That is no longer the case, since a while. The European economic and military power-center has shifted eastward to Brussels, and Strasbourg. Both economically and militarily.

(Besides, what did Europe really expect? That after two world-wars and defeats, Germany would just lick its wounds and not make a comeback. It was France and Germany that motored the Common Market and then the European Union. The UK just watched on the sidelines and - finally - tagged along.)

Like it or not, the Brits are still "Europeans" - until they find a way of unhooking all the islands, whereupon they can paddle themselves elsewhere on this globe ...

PS: If ever push-came-to-shove, any government in London would come screaming to the EU for "help". So, somebody/anybody, convince Putin to have his atomic-subs circling the main island consisting of England and Wales - and we'll see what happens.

Of course Brits are Europeans. I, for one, am intensely European. If you try really hard you will be able to understand that one can love Europe and hate the EU.

Britain's security rests on NATO (as does Sweden's as some Swedes now acknowledge, if only in private) not on the corrupt, posturing and inept EU. Just as well as the EU is collapsing under the weight of its misconceptions.

PeteEU · Nov 23, 2017

Chagos said:
Nope, only time the question was asked (I mean really asked as per referendum) was wrt membership in the EC.

1975.

And the EEC is fundamentally the same as the EU. It is based on the same Treaty of Rome, where everything is stipulated. Lets put it this way.. you were asked if you wanted to join an organisation. Later on that organisation changed its name, and added a few extra bits based on the original organisational ideas. Fundamentally it is the same organisation.

Chagos · Nov 23, 2017

PeteEU said:
And the EEC is fundamentally the same as the EU. It is based on the same Treaty of Rome, where everything is stipulated. Lets put it this way.. you were asked if you wanted to join an organisation. Later on that organisation changed its name, and added a few extra bits based on the original organisational ideas. Fundamentally it is the same organisation.

Oh, I understood that all at the time, but many Brits did not.

Primarily because no Brit government then and since saw fit to point it out to the people. The mushroom treatment of keeping them in the dark and feeding them BS.

I was already working on "the continent" at the time and saw the information discrepancy.

What many Brits do not acknowledge to this day is that any "trickery" was less on the part of Brussels but far more on the side of their own elected. Those, fearing that public opinion might prevent membership and put gubmint under pressure in elections, working on the public information basis of "need-to-know".

Very much furthering the public take that it was all just about free trade, a duty free zone and not much else.

The lies have been continuing ever since, primarily by channelling any discontent straight across the channel before it might go to Downing St. That incidentally being a MO that not only the UK practices, seeing the general tendency of European gubmints to take all credit for successes, while shifting blame for failures conveniently to Brussels.

Lafayette · Nov 23, 2017

Sweden said:
Of course Brits are Europeans. I, for one, am intensely European. If you try really hard you will be able to understand that one can love Europe and hate the EU.

Right, what do you think would have happened to the US had it not banded together into one country? The US had gone to war over slavery, and that war would never had ended if all the states were independent as in Europe!

The same result occurred to the Austro-hungarian Empire, that did not end until WW1 was over!

All the EU is doing is correcting that error, because had the EU been created at the end of WW1 there likely would not ever have been a WW2!

Sweden said:
Britain's security rests on NATO (as does Sweden's as some Swedes now acknowledge, if only in private) not on the corrupt, posturing and inept EU. Just as well as the EU is collapsing under the weight of its misconceptions.

The EU, given its economic performance, is hardly posturing and inept. It's been hit by the Great Recession imported from the US, and due to that fact it has realized that certain things must change.

Frankly, I think the EU needs a president. Junk Berlaymont, which is a bunch of fathead politicos with outrageous salaries and tax-breaks. Starting with Junker and all the way down - replace with elected officials. (Of course, due to the language barriers (and some vested interests), that is not going to happen.)

Had they been elected, they likely would have been a better lot. Of course, not all are like that - but far too many ...

Lafayette · Nov 23, 2017

joG said:
To think the economic impact of Brexit could be zero, if the EU could afford to let their citizens see the a member that left prosper. But the EU has nearly no political added value and so must demonstrate its economic albeit wrongheaded clout. To think that the Brits are EU citizens almost half of which are living in a country exiting against their will and the EU politicians purposely want to do them harm. My goodness. They are EU citizens.

Politics in the EU is left to country-level. Your statement above shows an ignorance towards the European Parliament in Strasbourg. That parliament has done much that goes mostly unseen on the nightly news.

Unfortunate, that, but the EU will get around one day to a President of the EU (PREU). It is simply a matter of time in which the EU must heal itself economically from the damage wrought by (1) the Great Recession, and (2) national myopia as regards EU interest rates to finance the borrowing-to-build that will no longer be tolerated. (The EU-states now supposedly "know-better".)

The EU has to "grow up" and away from the old-fogies who created it and then ran it badly. One might actually say that the Great Recession was a blessing-in-disguise. With high-interest rates, the countries were facing near bankruptcies. One did go bankrupt - Greece.

It was learning a lesson in prudent budgeting the hard way. Nonetheless, it was well-learned.

Let's hope ...

Sweden · Nov 23, 2017

Lafayette said:
Right, what do you think would have happened to the US had it not banded together into one country? The US had gone to war over slavery, and that war would never had ended if all the states were independent as in Europe!

The same result occurred to the Austro-hungarian Empire, that did not end until WW1 was over!

All the EU is doing is correcting that error, because had the EU been created at the end of WW1 there likely would not ever have been a WW2!

The EU, given its economic performance, is hardly posturing and inept. It's been hit by the Great Recession imported from the US, and due to that fact it has realized that certain things must change.

Frankly, I think the EU needs a president. Junk Berlaymont, which is a bunch of fathead politicos with outrageous salaries and tax-breaks. Starting with Junker and all the way down - replace with elected officials. (Of course, due to the language barriers (and some vested interests), that is not going to happen.)

Had they been elected, they likely would have been a better lot. Of course, not all are like that - but far too many ...

The USA was a new country, peopled by immigrants - voluntary and involuntary - lacking a history and a culture which urgently needed to create an identity. (I leave it to our American colleagues to determine whether the attempt was entirely successful). Europe is the site of ancient civilisations. Comprised of many nations, each with laws, cultures and modes of government which mostly began their slow evolution and development long before America was 'discovered'.

I think your suggestion that Europe must its rich pattern of cultures and turn itself into a copy of the USA absurd in the extreme.