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German Coalition Talks Collapse

Jack Hays

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Looks like a new election. Predictions? Hopes? Fears?





Collapse of German coalition talks deals Merkel a blow; new election likely
Germany’s president called for talks to continue. But jockeying before a possible new vote has begun.
36 minutes ago

BERLIN — The sudden collapse of talks to form a coalition government left German politics in turmoil Monday, as Chancellor Angela Merkel reckoned with one of the worst crises of her 12-year tenure and signaled that a new election is likely.
The unexpected failure triggered a flurry of activity in the normally predictable world of German politics, putting financial markets on edge and upping the volume on previously whispered conversations about how much longer Merkel can last.
After a midday meeting with the chancellor, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier attempted to calm the choppy waters with a speech calling on parties to come back to the negotiating table and avoid another vote after an inconclusive September election.
“The responsibility given to the parties remains,” said Steinmeier, noting that Monday’s impasse was unprecedented in Germany’s postwar history. “One can’t just return that responsibility to the voters.”
But despite his plea, a fresh vote looked increasingly likely — a fact that Merkel acknowledged Monday evening in an interview with broadcaster ZDF.

While Merkel insisted that she would not step down, she also suggested that calling a new election would be preferable to leading a government that must survive vote-to-vote without a majority in the German parliament, the Bundestag. . . .

 
One needs to know that the path to new elections is a rather complicated one, the German base law (serving as constitution) having put up many hurdles due to Weimar experiences.

With a government in place it would be fairly easy, namely the Chancellor would ask for a vote of confidence in parliament, that would fail by design and then the German president would call new elections.

With the current case that's not possible, simply because Germany has no Chancellor (or government) right now.

As such the constitution demands that parliament elect a Chancellor first of all, for things to proceed further. But he or she need collect the absolute majority in the first round (50+ pct) or else fail.

In which case parliament has two weeks to decide upon a candidate (the first round candidate always put forward by the President's suggestion) and repeat the whole voting process, but again with an absolute majority being required. Theoretically that process can be repeated for 14 days until such a majority can be achieved.

Only when that fails as well, the third round commences in which any candidate achieving the relative majority (i.e. most votes of all candidates) is the winner.

Only then can the President act again, either by appointing the winner as Chancellor(esse) of a minority government or by dissolving parliament altogether and calling new elections. In the latter case, new elections have to take place within 60 days of parliament being dissolved.

I'm inclined to predict that any such elections won't be taking place before the next year is well on its way.
 
One need see the general perception among ALL political parties that entering into a coalition with Merkel is the equivalent of submitting to a death hug. A slow death, for sure, but nevertheless.

As such the SPD (Social Democrats) lost voters after joining a Merkel government every time with the subsequent election that followed (2009 and now) and the FDP, the one time it joined in coalition with Merkel (2009), was annihilated in the subsequent elections of 2013 by not even making it into parliament anymore.

With the SPD having to bemoan considerable losses in this year's elections (albeit nowhere near as high as Merkel's own party actually suffered), they declared their opposition role immediately on the eve of elections.

The FDP is clearly traumatized by its results in the 2013 elections and the shenanigans of play-acting at being a possible coalition partner (prepared to carry responsibility) were of a mere tactical nature. It never intended to be anything of the sort and when (in the recent preliminary talks) it started looking more and more as if compromises were found to such an extent (even meeting FDP demands) that they were scheduled to become part of the government again, they hit the panic button and scarpered. Obviously believing that their demands were set so high as never to allow a consensus, they broke out more and more in cold sweat at the extent to which their demands actually met agreement.

Where hopes are concerned, a snap poll of today (yeah, yeah, I know, polls:roll:) shows that most Germans blame the FDP crowd the most for the failure of talks, the CSU being blamed second, the greens less so and Merkel's CDU least of all. That would indicate that a sizeable portion of German voters hope the FDP be punished in forthcoming elections for having again shown its most prominent feature, that of untrustworthiness.

It also appears that Germans hope for the SPD to change its mind and consider yet another coalition, but it has already voiced refusal (again) on account of understanding its losses to show a clear "no" by the voters (real reason see above).

Whatever the next weeks and months may bring, they'll also bring a Chancellor(esse) called Merkel.
 
I fear I have to go to the election again in Jan/Feb - Minority Government would be a mess.

And it will not work - I don´t estimate another outcome when we vote again....

@Chagos: well informed on German affairs as always. I fear better than me ;) :D
 
My thoughts to the FDP: it´s their right to quit if they don´t find their politics in the coalition, but the way Lindner did it ....

Seems to me everything has to be a great show and performance nowadays and pragmatic politics for the people does not matter...
 
I fear I have to go to the election again in Jan/Feb - Minority Government would be a mess.

And it will not work - I don´t estimate another outcome when we vote again....

@Chagos: well informed on German affairs as always. I fear better than me ;) :D

Omfg, dont feed the Chomping Chagos..... he knows nothing!





Well he does, but dont stroke his ego too much.
 
My thoughts to the FDP: it´s their right to quit if they don´t find their politics in the coalition, but the way Lindner did it ....

Seems to me everything has to be a great show and performance nowadays and pragmatic politics for the people does not matter...

The FDP has always to been a wannabe Neo Con right wing pro business type party. They fell apart 5 years ago due to their policies basically during an economic crisis. They have now regained some of their former glory, but I think that this action might have hurt them yet again and new election would see them lose seats.
 
Looks like a new election. Predictions? Hopes? Fears?





Collapse of German coalition talks deals Merkel a blow; new election likely
Germany’s president called for talks to continue. But jockeying before a possible new vote has begun.
36 minutes ago

BERLIN — The sudden collapse of talks to form a coalition government left German politics in turmoil Monday, as Chancellor Angela Merkel reckoned with one of the worst crises of her 12-year tenure and signaled that a new election is likely.
The unexpected failure triggered a flurry of activity in the normally predictable world of German politics, putting financial markets on edge and upping the volume on previously whispered conversations about how much longer Merkel can last.
After a midday meeting with the chancellor, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier attempted to calm the choppy waters with a speech calling on parties to come back to the negotiating table and avoid another vote after an inconclusive September election.
“The responsibility given to the parties remains,” said Steinmeier, noting that Monday’s impasse was unprecedented in Germany’s postwar history. “One can’t just return that responsibility to the voters.”
But despite his plea, a fresh vote looked increasingly likely — a fact that Merkel acknowledged Monday evening in an interview with broadcaster ZDF.

While Merkel insisted that she would not step down, she also suggested that calling a new election would be preferable to leading a government that must survive vote-to-vote without a majority in the German parliament, the Bundestag. . . .


Maybe the Socialists will decide that, after all, 'for the good of Germany', they are willing to enter a coalition. They have as much to lose from a second humiliation at the polls as any other party.
 
I fear I have to go to the election again in Jan/Feb - Minority Government would be a mess.

And it will not work - I don´t estimate another outcome when we vote again.....................~
Whatever difference (if any at all) will be small, I reckon.

What may reflect (in new elections) is the disgust with the FDP, IF the current narrative by many that they're most responsible for the talks' failure can be pushed thru and maintained.

One need see that in September the conservatives lost most votes to Lindner's bunch, in fact far more than to the AfD which profited mainly from (hitherto) non-voters. Those either having previously abstained or having become eligible to vote for the first time.

Many conservative voters thus voicing their disagreement with Merkel but not having wanted to go the whole path of voting for the "unsavoury" rightist AfD.

It's doubtful that they'd now go that final mile, more likely they'll return to the CDU/CSU, especially in view of the current disaster. So it'll all depend on how many of the over 1 million votes lost to the FDP can be recovered by Merkel and Co.

OTH the SPD can attribute about a third of its losses to voters having gone to the the FDP. If some of those can be regained, the face-saving game may open up again in that the SPD can quit its dishonest stance of not having been given a mandate by the voters for participating in government, and can then claim the opposite. At the same time crediting itself with then doing it all for "God and Country".:roll:

I'm glad I have no say (vote) in the matter because I'd have the whole lot (from far left to centre to far right) shot.

What do you call 709 German parliamentarians at the bottom of the sea?

A very good start.:mrgreen:

Replace "German" with any other nationality:(
 
The FDP has always to been a wannabe Neo Con right wing pro business type party. They fell apart 5 years ago due to their policies basically during an economic crisis. They have now regained some of their former glory, but I think that this action might have hurt them yet again and new election would see them lose seats.
Yeah, with the exception of lawyers, dentists and hotel owners (the middle class of "upper incomes" that has an exaggerated notion of own importance), nobody really trusts that bunch of prevaricators and will only vote for them on "strategic" reasons.

From what I get to hear, many certainly hope that these current shenanigans (just one example in a long history of many) WILL hurt them.

But memories are short with the half life period probably not even reaching spring next year.
 
Omfg, dont feed the Chomping Chagos..... he knows nothing!
Hmm..................Chomping Chagos, eh?

I kinda like it, sounds like a demented cousin of Optimus Prime :mrgreen:
 
I actually know some FDP fans - everybody of them is doctor, lawyer or factory owner from well off families and nobody of them can in any way imagine how life works on the poorer side of the City.

They all pray the prayer of selfresponsibility and freedom (for the well off) and get angry if you tell them that they may have had a little easier start than others...
 
I actually know some FDP fans - everybody of them is doctor, lawyer or factory owner from well off families and nobody of them can in any way imagine how life works on the poorer side of the City.

They all pray the prayer of selfresponsibility and freedom (for the well off) and get angry if you tell them that they may have had a little easier start than others...

During the three years we lived in Berlin (1993-96) I thought the FDP was the German party whose views I found most comfortable.
 
So the Germans also want an end to this failure of a Refugee Crisis, and Merkel is gonna pay for it.
Good! Bye Bye Angel...:cool:
 
I fear I have to go to the election again in Jan/Feb - Minority Government would be a mess.

And it will not work - I don´t estimate another outcome when we vote again....

@Chagos: well informed on German affairs as always. I fear better than me ;) :D

We've had a Red/Green minority gov in Sweden for the last three years. Their combined vote at the last election was 38%. It has sort of worked - at least they are still there.
 
We've had a Red/Green minority gov in Sweden for the last three years. Their combined vote at the last election was 38%. It has sort of worked - at least they are still there.
Frankly, it appears that most German aren't aware of the fact that they've actually had a minority government for years. There's not a single law or change of existing ones that can be implemented without it first passing the higher chamber. That chamber consisting of representation of the individual federal states, all in accordance with who holds power there. With a patchwork of coalitions (Greens and Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Lefties, Social Democrats and Greens and even either CDU or SPD together with FDP and Greens) having formed its past make-up as per state, Merkel's administration was never anywhere near holding a majority there.

So she (and the SPD) in the past had to go looking for majorities as much as she may now have to in the "Bundestag" (parliament) as well.

It's no race that I have any horse in but a minority government might actually put some life into "parliamentarism". Having to go look for support with practically any bill one wishes to make, might actually present the FRG with a debating culture worthy of the name, and for the first time in its relatively young history.

Instead of the showmanship one gets to to see prior to any actions being waved thru anyway.

But it would be a novelty for Germans alive today and novelty constitutes a change. Merkel doesn't like that and neither do, in general, the Germans. She's been running (and carried) on that ticket "all is good, stay calm and carry on" for 12 years now.
 
During the three years we lived in Berlin (1993-96) I thought the FDP was the German party whose views I found most comfortable.
Long time ago, mate.

The FDP has changed considerably since.
 
Yeah well, fortunately your lack of knowledge of the country or its institutions holds no further repercussions for it.

Unfortunately I lived in Germany for 6 years and worked for a German firm along with Europeans of many different nationalities for 2 so I know just how much I do and dont know.

Now that your evasion as gone flat do you have anything to say about DW becoming essentially an arm of the government, as they have had a habit of doing?
 
Unfortunately I lived in Germany for 6 years and worked for a German firm along with Europeans of many different nationalities for 2 so I know just how much I do and dont know.
Changes nothing in the lack of knowledge your post expressed.

Now that your evasion as gone flat do you have anything to say about DW becoming essentially an arm of the government, as they have had a habit of doing?
Possibly, but not to you, I don't think.

No need for further responses, seeing how I'm done with you here.

Bye.
 
This headline sounds a bit hysterical
The End of the End of HistoryA DER SPIEGEL Editorial by Klaus Brinkbäumer, November 23, 2017

...
After the collapse of communism in 1989, Francis Fukuyama wrote "The End of History," by which he meant the triumph of Western values. Soon the entire world would be democratized, the victorious political order seemed clear.

How absurd that worldview seems now, in November 2017.
...

Oh, ok.

...
The idea that democracy was somehow the endpoint of development was megalomaniac. As long as there is something to redistribute, every system has it easy. But in the past 11 years, freedom around the world has receded. Of 195 states only 87 are still free, 59 are partially free and 49 are not free at all according to the NGO Freedom House. Turkey and Russia have turned their backs on the group of democracies while Poland and Hungary look to be not far behind. Meanwhile, the United States is foundering. One would hope that should be enough to focus minds in Berlin. There is, after all, a lot at stake.

Good point. Makes me think of a Thatcher quote on socialism. 'The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money'? (actually she said "Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money. ") close enough
 
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This headline sounds a bit hysterical
The End of the End of HistoryA DER SPIEGEL Editorial by Klaus Brinkbäumer, November 23, 2017
Hysteria sells copy and Der Spiegel is as good at that angle as everybody else
Oh, ok.



Good point.
But if we stay with the country of topic, it isn't a lack of stuff to be redistributed (quite the contrary with Germany currently doing as well as it is, economically) it's the method of distribution. Better said those profiting from the gains not necessarily being the ones paying for their achievement.
Makes me think of a Thatcher quote on socialism. 'The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money'? (actually she said "Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money. ") close enough
......and, once having said that, proceeding to sell off most of British assets that weren't nailed down firmly enough.

Nostalgia has its ways of fogging the rear view, at the rate things are going she'll no doubt have sainthood bestowed upon her before long.
 
Hysteria sells copy and Der Spiegel is as good at that angle as everybody else But if we stay with the country of topic, it isn't a lack of stuff to be redistributed (quite the contrary with Germany currently doing as well as it is, economically) it's the method of distribution. Better said those profiting from the gains not necessarily being the ones paying for their achievement. ......and, once having said that, proceeding to sell off most of British assets that weren't nailed down firmly enough.

Nostalgia has its ways of fogging the rear view, at the rate things are going she'll no doubt have sainthood bestowed upon her before long.

It is interesting to me that the greatest President of the 20th century, FDR, served with the greatest PM, Winston Churchill, and the second greatest President, RWR, served with the second greatest PM, Margaret Thatcher.
 
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