Re: Should Spain Forcefully Suppress the Catalan Independence Referendum?
Chaos et al:
El Hierro in the Canaries? In Insula Perejil he might just decide to foment Moroccan land claims just to keep in practice for his eventual triumphant return to Catalunya! This is a vocation for him and no prison sentence will likely deter him. Jailing him will just feed into his political martyrdom and make him more popular among those committed to the fragmentation of a unitary Spanish state. You're just going to have to learn to live with him and his ilk, jumping in the puddles of the political waters and soiling the nice clothes of Catalunya/Spain/Europe.
What would Spain do if in response to the imposition/assertion of direct rule and the call for new elections, Catalan separatists won a substantial electoral victory? Then would Spain negotiate with the separatists or would it continue to dissolve Catalan parliaments serially, until it got the result it prefers?
Is more serious Catalan resistance (political, economic, tax revolts, and direct action) in the cards if Spain is too heavy handed?
Cheers.
Evilroddy.
The martyrdom angle is very pertinent, Catalans thrive on martyrdom, even those that oppose separation. Sometimes reminding me (but only in that aspect) of nationalist Serbs who celebrate their resounding defeat on the Blackbird field (Kosovo) against the Ottomans, to the point of making it the founding myth of their nation and celebrating the anniversary each year.
Now how nuts is that?
As to your question, a substantial victory is not likely even where the margin may well be thinner (but more in favour of the separatists than it currently is). That doesn't mean however that any unilateral declaration of independence would ever find acceptance by the Spanish state.
What is recognized though (even if not so much by the mule-heads in Rajoy's gang) is that the current autonomy status, as favourable as it is, requires re-adjustment.
And not just for Catalonia either.
But with regard to any negotiations on that issue, Puigdemont cannot be the negotiating partner if he gets it into his mind to declare independence any time between now and Thursday, respectively Friday. He'd be toast.
I also refer back to Artur Mas who was prosecuted and convicted, subsequently fined and barred from holding political office for the period of two years.
The Catalan reaction (certainly on the part of his supporters) was not open rebellion, but rather masochistic wallowing in self pity, perceived injustice, orgasmic martyrdom and the feeling of moral superiority that could be derived from all of those.
Catalan psyche (at least in large parts) thrives on all of that as a means of identity and were Catalonia ever to gain independence, those described here would wither on the vine like rotting grapes. They'd have to define themselves completely anew by actually being pro something instead of resting in the comfort zone of victimhood.
It's simply not primarily about the money, it's about emotion.
All of which is pretty broad brush, I'd agree, but there's much smoke there indicating at least some fire.
And yes, we have to live with it all but seeing how we've been doing nothing else for decades, that won't really pose a problem.
