UK election night live

William Rea said:

Some significant factors that I hadn't considered until last night...

Young people don't read the rags that practically attempted an assassination on Corbyn; they are all getting their news from social media and the internet.

Young people largely have no idea who the IRA are or what the history is, and they don't much care.

Young people are not obsessed with nuclear weapons because they have no experience of the cold war.

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Yes the young voted in greater numbers but the UKIP vote collapsed. Those votes went elsewhere - possibly because they felt Brexit was achieved but also possibly because UKIPs new policies under Paul Nuttall were horrible reminders of the old National Front and BNP.

Godric1970 said:

actually it was the unionists that banged on about Independence every single leaflet through the doors was stop independence including the local elections ... they did not have a single policy except stop independence

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But it will work. Sturgeon is back tracking in every interview she gives. Well done Ruth Davidson

Good grief! Anyone would think the SNP had just lost their majority. They lost quite a few seats but remain the biggest party in Scotland by a country mile. I think last night's result will cause the SNP to reorient their stance on indyref2, but apart from that they are still the legitimate government of Scotland, still enjoy overwhelming popularity amongst their voters. This smack on the wrist could be helpful and keep them honest.

But the loss of 20 SNP MPs is not the story of the night. Here are a few to my mind far more significant consequences of yesterday's election:

• The Tories are only going to cling onto government by doing a deal with the DUP. Almost immediately after May seals her deal with the Ulster Unionists the British government is going to begin arbitrating the negotiations to reestablish the power-sharing government of Northern Ireland between the DUP and Sinn Féin. So, we can throw that negotiation under a bus. It's not even too apocalyptic to suggest that the integration of the DUP into the UK ruling régime could end the NI peace process.
• The screech of centrist and right-wing Labour figures performing a u-turn on Jeremy Corbyn has been deafening. Whether that means that they will revise the disproven trope that Labour could never win from the left is yet to be seen.
• Theresa May is a dead duck PM. She's beholden to too many people to have any room for manoeuvre. She's lost her mandate to govern, to negotiate Brexit and will depend on people who are not her friends to remain in government.
• She presides over a party that is deeply split between head-banging Brexiteers and embittered, told-you-so Remainers. In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote the Tories were crowing about the apparent disintegration of the Labour Party. They did what Tories do, they buried their internal divisions, united behind a 'strong leader' and thought that that would be enough. What they discovered was that their strong leader was incompetent and that the divisions they papered over are still there.

There are just a few musings 24 hours on. The UK is in deep doo-doo brought about by two incompetent Tory PMs in a row: one who couldn't unite his own party without throwing the entire economic and constitutional future of the country into doubt; the second who thought she'd waste two months post-Article 50 trigger in pursuit of a landslide that she'd allowed herself to be convinced was available.

The good news is that Labour didn't win more seats than the Tories, and that's the good news for the Labour Party, not for the Tories. The Tories under May will not create a pluralistic, cross-party, united national Brexit negotiating team. Theresa May simply couldn't conceive of pluralism and couldn't deliver it even if she did. She will fail to deliver a deal that will satisfy her party, parliament or the wider country. There will be another General Election within 2 years and a left-leaning Labour Party will win quite handsomely.

So amongst the chaos and doubt and uncertainty there is at least a bit of good news all round really.

gunner said:

But it will work. Sturgeon is back tracking in every interview she gives. Well done Ruth Davidson

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Nicola Sturgeon has not said ashe is pulling or withdrawing the section 30 she said she is thinking over her next move she done the exact same thing on the Brexit vote what a lot of folk down south don't understand is SNP is NOT the Independence movement they are part of it loads of SNP voters switched when corbyn said he wouldn't block Indyref2 .. the Tories got their support from disaffected unionist Labour as well as tactical voting and Labour got their support from a lot of pro Indy voters that wanted to stop Theresa May ... i reckon it's the kick in the pants the SNP needed


the thing about Ruth Davidson is she lied through her teeth and the UK media ignored it and her support for the rape clause ... with the Tories in coalition with the DUP watch the support rise for Independence

Let's hope the NHS can hold out for that long.

Infinite Chaos said:

Yes the young voted in greater numbers but the UKIP vote collapsed. Those votes went elsewhere - possibly because they felt Brexit was achieved but also possibly because UKIPs new policies under Paul Nuttall were horrible reminders of the old National Front and BNP.

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I agree. UKIP had no where to go, other than to the extreme. Farage is talking about coming back, I hope he does. Then hopefully the one trick phoney will be exposed for what he is. I fully understand why so many working class went over to them, when some local communities were flooded with Eastern Europeans looking for work. But he has nothing else appealing as a rabid Libertarian.

Nilly said:

I love this country.

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Unfortunately the reality is we have a country deeply divided.

Andalublue said:

Good grief! Anyone would think the SNP had just lost their majority. They lost quite a few seats but remain the biggest party in Scotland by a country mile. I think last night's result will cause the SNP to reorient their stance on indyref2, but apart from that they are still the legitimate government of Scotland, still enjoy overwhelming popularity amongst their voters. This smack on the wrist could be helpful and keep them honest.

But the loss of 20 SNP MPs is not the story of the night. Here are a few to my mind far more significant consequences of yesterday's election:

• The Tories are only going to cling onto government by doing a deal with the DUP. Almost immediately after May seals her deal with the Ulster Unionists the British government is going to begin arbitrating the negotiations to reestablish the power-sharing government of Northern Ireland between the DUP and Sinn Féin. So, we can throw that negotiation under a bus. It's not even too apocalyptic to suggest that the integration of the DUP into the UK ruling régime could end the NI peace process.
• The screech of centrist and right-wing Labour figures performing a u-turn on Jeremy Corbyn has been deafening. Whether that means that they will revise the disproven trope that Labour could never win from the left is yet to be seen.
• Theresa May is a dead duck PM. She's beholden to too many people to have any room for manoeuvre. She's lost her mandate to govern, to negotiate Brexit and will depend on people who are not her friends to remain in government.
• She presides over a party that is deeply split between head-banging Brexiteers and embittered, told-you-so Remainers. In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote the Tories were crowing about the apparent disintegration of the Labour Party. They did what Tories do, they buried their internal divisions, united behind a 'strong leader' and thought that that would be enough. What they discovered was that their strong leader was incompetent and that the divisions they papered over are still there.

There are just a few musings 24 hours on. The UK is in deep doo-doo brought about by two incompetent Tory PMs in a row: one who couldn't unite his own party without throwing the entire economic and constitutional future of the country into doubt; the second who thought she'd waste two months post-Article 50 trigger in pursuit of a landslide that she'd allowed herself to be convinced was available.

The good news is that Labour didn't win more seats than the Tories, and that's the good news for the Labour Party, not for the Tories. The Tories under May will not create a pluralistic, cross-party, united national Brexit negotiating team. Theresa May simply couldn't conceive of pluralism and couldn't deliver it even if she did. She will fail to deliver a deal that will satisfy her party, parliament or the wider country. There will be another General Election within 2 years and a left-leaning Labour Party will win quite handsomely.

So amongst the chaos and doubt and uncertainty there is at least a bit of good news all round really.

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Nice post Andy. Although the loss of 20 SNP members is far more significant than a slapped wrist, and you know it.

Infinite Chaos said:

Yes the young voted in greater numbers but the UKIP vote collapsed. Those votes went elsewhere - possibly because they felt Brexit was achieved but also possibly because UKIPs new policies under Paul Nuttall were horrible reminders of the old National Front and BNP.

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I have heard estimates that the ratio is estimated at 2 Con to 1 Lab for the UKIP collapse, I don't know the demographics of that split but, it would be interesting to find out.

Looking at the front pages today the press seem to have learnt nothing.

Andalublue said:

Good grief! Anyone would think the SNP had just lost their majority. They lost quite a few seats but remain the biggest party in Scotland by a country mile. I think last night's result will cause the SNP to reorient their stance on indyref2, but apart from that they are still the legitimate government of Scotland, still enjoy overwhelming popularity amongst their voters. This smack on the wrist could be helpful and keep them honest.

But the loss of 20 SNP MPs is not the story of the night. Here are a few to my mind far more significant consequences of yesterday's election:

• The Tories are only going to cling onto government by doing a deal with the DUP. Almost immediately after May seals her deal with the Ulster Unionists the British government is going to begin arbitrating the negotiations to reestablish the power-sharing government of Northern Ireland between the DUP and Sinn Féin. So, we can throw that negotiation under a bus. It's not even too apocalyptic to suggest that the integration of the DUP into the UK ruling régime could end the NI peace process.
• The screech of centrist and right-wing Labour figures performing a u-turn on Jeremy Corbyn has been deafening. Whether that means that they will revise the disproven trope that Labour could never win from the left is yet to be seen.
• Theresa May is a dead duck PM. She's beholden to too many people to have any room for manoeuvre. She's lost her mandate to govern, to negotiate Brexit and will depend on people who are not her friends to remain in government.
• She presides over a party that is deeply split between head-banging Brexiteers and embittered, told-you-so Remainers. In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote the Tories were crowing about the apparent disintegration of the Labour Party. They did what Tories do, they buried their internal divisions, united behind a 'strong leader' and thought that that would be enough. What they discovered was that their strong leader was incompetent and that the divisions they papered over are still there.

There are just a few musings 24 hours on. The UK is in deep doo-doo brought about by two incompetent Tory PMs in a row: one who couldn't unite his own party without throwing the entire economic and constitutional future of the country into doubt; the second who thought she'd waste two months post-Article 50 trigger in pursuit of a landslide that she'd allowed herself to be convinced was available.

The good news is that Labour didn't win more seats than the Tories, and that's the good news for the Labour Party, not for the Tories. The Tories under May will not create a pluralistic, cross-party, united national Brexit negotiating team. Theresa May simply couldn't conceive of pluralism and couldn't deliver it even if she did. She will fail to deliver a deal that will satisfy her party, parliament or the wider country. There will be another General Election within 2 years and a left-leaning Labour Party will win quite handsomely.

So amongst the chaos and doubt and uncertainty there is at least a bit of good news all round really.

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Spot on Andy, you have nailed it there. I think that we also have to not forget to be magnanimous to those people that voted tactically because I think that that may also have been a factor.

Like you, I'm also very OK with Labour not winning a majority because it is now on the Tories to be tarred with the responsibility for what comes next and the Tories will be trying to personally tar May with it but, I am VERY, VERY concerned that the DUP are now being brought centre stage, there is an awful possibility that the peace process will be put in trouble because of this insanity.

I was having conversations about this with someone yesterday Andy, about how much May could retrieve something from this by making the Brexit team cross party. I would have some respect for her if she showed the leadership to do that. Not my cup of tea personally but Keir Starmer comes to mind for Labour.

William Rea said:

I have heard estimates that the ratio is estimated at 2 Con to 1 Lab for the UKIP collapse, I don't know the demographics of that split but, it would be interesting to find out.

Looking at the front pages today the press seem to have learnt nothing.

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I agree and I do accept even from personal experience that lots of young people were energised to vote. My social media feeds were full of calls for the young to vote - using a whole range of arguments to get people out voting. Very little of this was actually calling for people to vote Labour / Jeremy Corbyn.

A great read this morning which has cheered me up no end:

"Okay I need to get this off my chest. The more I think about it, the more I think this GE result is absolutely perfect. A hung parliament is what we wanted with tactical voting, and a hung parliament is precisely what we got. I think a lot of us were hoping for slightly different numbers though ie a coalition between Labour and the LibDems (plus SNP and others) that's what I was hoping for as well. But if that had happened then Labour would have ended up lumbered with the brexit baby and when it all went tits up it would be Labour and whoever that is in coalition with them that would ultimately get the blame for the brexit disaster, even though it is entirely the conservatives fault.

If that happened then we could at some point further down the line end up lumbered with a conservative government for god knows how long as people wouldnt trust Labour again after getting the ultimate blame for brexit.

However as it stands the tories are still left holding the brexit baby, and to make matters worse for them they are in a much much weakened position, which means the opposition parties can make life very difficult for them due to them only having a two seat majority which also relies on the DUP who I would imagine arent going to be the most rational of allies. It only takes two rebellious tory back benchers to destroy their majority and then the other parties can run rings around them.

The tories will have to take all the blame when things are not working out. I'd say that's a pretty damn good result.

When people look back on this brexit carry on in history they will see the tories calling a referendum to try and silence a rebellious minority in their party, it backfiring. Then calling a general election to increase their majority, and backfiring. Then going into brexit negotiations with their decreased majority and making a right hash of it.
That's three monumental **** ups, one right after the other. They're going to look like total morons."

Infinite Chaos said:

I agree and I do accept even from personal experience that lots of young people were energised to vote. My social media feeds were full of calls for the young to vote - using a whole range of arguments to get people out voting. Very little of this was actually calling for people to vote Labour / Jeremy Corbyn.

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Sadly, I am watching Question Time from last night and it seems like the ardent Conservatives have learnt nothing from this. I'm onto R4 catch up in a bit to listen to Any Questions. I hope that R4 can raise my spirits.

William Rea said:

Sadly, I am watching Question Time from last night and it seems like the ardent Conservatives have learnt nothing from this. I'm onto R4 catch up in a bit to listen to Any Questions. I hope that R4 can raise my spirits.

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Ardent conservatives like Isabel Oakeshott? I watched it too.

She's a monstrosity. She will be right with the hardcore christian right conservatives of the DUP. I align more with modernisers like Ruth Davidson. May will depend on the DUP but she better not forget that Ruth Davidson's efforts delivered several seats in Scotland without which, Jeremy Corbyn would be in a stronger position.

Infinite Chaos said:

Ardent conservatives like Isabel Oakeshott? I watched it too.

She's a monstrosity. She will be right with the hardcore christian right conservatives of the DUP. I align more with modernisers like Ruth Davidson. May will depend on the DUP but she better not forget that Ruth Davidson's efforts delivered several seats in Scotland without which, Jeremy Corbyn would be in a stronger position.

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Oakeshott is in denial but anyway, when I said 'ardent' I in no way was meaning to categorise you with her by implication IC. I should have used a more appropriate word. It is possible to be ardent but not extreme, I just couldn't find the right word.

What is interesting now is how the DUP are now coming under the spotlight of the wider public and we are getting to see how mad NI politics actually is on both sides. this might actually turn out to be an education for the British public.

Infinite Chaos said:

I agree and I do accept even from personal experience that lots of young people were energised to vote. My social media feeds were full of calls for the young to vote - using a whole range of arguments to get people out voting. Very little of this was actually calling for people to vote Labour / Jeremy Corbyn.

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I also had a conversation with a young relative of mine to whom I said, 'Just vote! I'm not going to tell you who to vote for but just remember, if you do vote they have to count it and account for it which means they have to work harder. They don't like unpredictable voting so if you pop up in the numbers, you have made a statement simply by waving at them, even if it is sarcastically!'.

I kind of liked my little social media twist at the end

William Rea said:

Spot on Andy, you have nailed it there. I think that we also have to not forget to be magnanimous to those people that voted tactically because I think that that may also have been a factor.

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I agree, although I think a brief period of "told you so" to those who said Labour would be destroyed and May triumphant is both understandable and excusable.

Like you, I'm also very OK with Labour not winning a majority because it is now on the Tories to be tarred with the responsibility for what comes next and the Tories will be trying to personally tar May with it

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TBH William, it was you that made me see the positive in Labour not winning. It's now vitally important that Labour's renewed vigour is put to work too. The elements of the programme that were sketchy and imperfectly costed have to be addressed. Recovered party unity has to be built on. The effort for that magnanimity you talked about from the leadership and an accommodation of the will of the party in the country has to be grasped by the anti-Corbynistas. Can they do that? Big question. Labour now has to turn that party of protest into a party worthy of government, and fast because the next test is less than 2 years away.

but, I am VERY, VERY concerned that the DUP are now being brought centre stage, there is an awful possibility that the peace process will be put in trouble because of this insanity.

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I share your concern. As I think Campbell said on QT last night, the Tories are looking like they are going to destroy Thatcher's 'greatest achievement' of the Single Market, and Major and Blair's greatest achievement of peace in Northern Ireland through incompetence in negotiation and political expediency. Bringing the DUP into government doesn't just risk handing the initiative to the tiny element of Republicanism that refused to follow Sinn Féin into the peace process, it make a return to violence from both extremes actually quite likely.

I was having conversations about this with someone yesterday Andy, about how much May could retrieve something from this by making the Brexit team cross party. I would have some respect for her if she showed the leadership to do that. Not my cup of tea personally but Keir Starmer comes to mind for Labour.

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That's something she could have done 9 months ago, but was too weak or too ideological to contemplate, hence her electoral disaster.

I agree that there are good people who could give the Brexit negotiations some heft and legitimacy, but May is too partisan and too weak-willed to admit a mistake and rectify it.

William Rea said:

Oakeshott is in denial but anyway, when I said 'ardent' I in no way was meaning to categorise you with her by implication IC. I should have used a more appropriate word. It is possible to be ardent but not extreme, I just couldn't find the right word.

What is interesting now is how the DUP are now coming under the spotlight of the wider public and we are getting to see how mad NI politics actually is on both sides. this might actually turn out to be an education for the British public.

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I think Oakeshott has been modelling herself on Ann Coulter. She's a monstrous bigot, but perfect for the Daily Mail. I think Campbell and the marvellous Armando Ianucci stuck back in the box on several occasions.

So, how long do you think she'll stay in office now?

A week, a month, until the grey suits arrive and have a quiet word, like they did with Thatcher?

Or until the DUP twist her arm and want to bring in an antiquated law and the country rises in protest?

Andalublue said:

I agree, although I think a brief period of "told you so" to those who said Labour would be destroyed and May triumphant is both understandable and excusable.

TBH William, it was you that made me see the positive in Labour not winning. It's now vitally important that Labour's renewed vigour is put to work too. The elements of the programme that were sketchy and imperfectly costed have to be addressed. Recovered party unity has to be built on. The effort for that magnanimity you talked about from the leadership and an accommodation of the will of the party in the country has to be grasped by the anti-Corbynistas. Can they do that? Big question. Labour now has to turn that party of protest into a party worthy of government, and fast because the next test is less than 2 years away.

I share your concern. As I think Campbell said on QT last night, the Tories are looking like they are going to destroy Thatcher's 'greatest achievement' of the Single Market, and Major and Blair's greatest achievement of peace in Northern Ireland through incompetence in negotiation and political expediency. Bringing the DUP into government doesn't just risk handing the initiative to the tiny element of Republicanism that refused to follow Sinn Féin into the peace process, it make a return to violence from both extremes actually quite likely.

That's something she could have done 9 months ago, but was too weak or too ideological to contemplate, hence her electoral disaster.

I agree that there are good people who could give the Brexit negotiations some heft and legitimacy, but May is too partisan and too weak-willed to admit a mistake and rectify it.

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Wow, that's a lot of pressure Andy, I do hope that sometimes I can make a contribution!

Anyway, I hope that some people don't take what I said as in any way trivial. There are people hit by austerity that are subsisting and don't really have the luxury of being able to play the long game like those with some financial buffer and mobility can. My feeling was that a blunted Tory administration would have been forced to take responsibility for the Brexit mess and at the same time relent and stop punishing the NEMs (Not Even Managing); on that we will see.

To put that in context, since 1945 the dogmatic position of the 'harder right' that trickle down laissez-faire economics works and that there is nothing that can be run effectively by a larger scale not for profit collective did not go away. Essentially, they went along with the setting up of the welfare state as a small but short term price to pay for the sacrifices of WW2; up until the late 1970s as it turned out when they lost patience with the centre right. Thatcher freed them from any obligation to be nominally 'One Nation' and the ongoing project to roll back to a pre-1945 state was accelerated. They have always had the luxury of being able to play this long game whereas the social democrats have always been expected to fulfil a short term promise to alleviate the subsistence conditions of their voting base. With the 'harder right' the voters kind of knew that they were going to be screwed but, they hoped that someone else would be screwed harder and, voted for it anyway for various complex socio-economic reasons so there was no expectation.

Between 1945 and 1979 it was pretty much taken for granted that the incoming party would fulfil the '1945 accord' and it has been this that has been broken with our consent! In my opinion it is assumed as political orthodoxy that the 1970s industrial strife was solely the responsibility of unions and rabid communists but, I suggest that it was actually the result of a crushing lack of investment and interest from people who simply did not 'like' how Britain was run and so sent their money to Asia, Africa and South America where people were a little more compliant rather than do what the Germans managed to do (another pre-1945 tradition). Unlike British politicians in the post war era, the Germans were patriotic enough to work with their people rather than try to enforce the lowest common denominator every time. This is a tradition that goes back to the Industrial revolution where the technology to mass produce was developed by Germany but, they could not bear to impose the misery it would bring on their own people. The British establishment however could not wait to do it and almost celebrated the squalour and depravity that it created.

Snazzy said:

So, how long do you think she'll stay in office now?

A week, a month, until the grey suits arrive and have a quiet word, like they did with Thatcher?

Or until the DUP twist her arm and want to bring in an antiquated law and the country rises in protest?

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Might as well make it three out of three and screw the nation for party interests with a leadership election, I guess.

I don't think she should resign, I don't want her to resign, what I want her to do is accept reality and responsibility and do something BOLD and courageous like try to establish a cross party team for the coming Brexit. I actually think that Davies could work with Keir Starmer for example, I don't think that they are politically that far apart.

May is getting into bed with this lot.

Manc Skipper said:

Let's hope the NHS can hold out for that long.

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the Scottish NHS is streets ahead of the English NHS unlike England we didn't need the help of the Red Cross how embarrassing was that

William Rea said:

I actually think that Davies could work with Keir Starmer for example, I don't think that they are politically that far apart.

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Ouch! Really, William? What makes you say that about Keir Starmer? I've only really heard him talking about Brexit. Davies is a right libertarian. They may well agree on issues relating to freedom of information, surveillance, international non-intervention etc., but I'd be hugely surprised and disappointed if Starmer shared his views on welfare, privatisation, the rolling back of the state, austerity, deregulation of the City etc etc.

He has been an enthusiastic member of Corbyn's shadow cabinet, despite not having supported Corbyn in the leadership election. His work on refugees, work capability assessments and Brexit issues have been outstanding. I think he might well eventually make an excellent party leader and PM. Am I wrong? I well could be.

zyzygy said:

May is getting into bed with this lot.

View attachment 67218655

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That photo makes me uneasy. I've been trying to find other images of that mural and I can't. It does look like it might be photoshopped. If so, it's dangerous and counter-productive. Nevertheless the DUP do not have any moral high ground from which to criticise Corbyn's meetings with Sinn Féin. She needs to be asked and offer convincing answers to the questions that this story from the Belfast Telegraph last week raises.

DUP chief Arlene Foster met UDA boss days after loyalist murder in Bangor - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

That she doesn't think she needs to call for the unconditional disbanding of the UDA, twenty years after they supposedly committed to do so, beggars belief.