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UK Election predictions - put your money where your mouth is

Which party will win most seats in Parliament?

  • Conservatives majority 100+

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • Conservative majority 50-100

    Votes: 3 30.0%

  • Conservative majority <50

    Votes: 4 40.0%

  • Hung parliament - Cons largest party

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Hung parliament - Lab largest party

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • Labour majority <20

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • Labour majority 20-50

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Labour majority 50+

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • UKIP sweep the board

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Something else unbelievable

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    10
  • Poll closed .
Could be a hung parliament based on the exit polls
 
Conservatives down 17 seats if the exit polls are correct. Theresa May blew it big time if this follows through.

I have mixed emotions, on one hand Brexit would no longer be in the hands of a hard Brexiter captive to people like Ian Duncan Smith but we are back in hung parliament territory..
 
Higgins86 said:
Could be a hung parliament based on the exit polls
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Had not expected that..

Even though the exit polls in the UK are often very good and accurate, then lets wait for the result.

But no doubt, May lost this election. Wonder if she will resign...
 
The polling station said they'd had a lot of young voters in, (they didn't shoot "Waiting for God" in Bournemouth for nothing) which is unusual, and lets me dare to hope for at least a hung parliament.

Crouch end is going Labour, if the baker's doughnut poll is any guide!
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PeteEU said:
~ no doubt, May lost this election. Wonder if she will resign...
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A lot of Labour voters promised swapping to Conservative so if they did, where are those Conservatives like me (I voted Lib Dem this time because of Remain) or did they stay away?

Anyhow - a long night ahead, Last election should teach us to be patient.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
A lot of Labour voters promised swapping to Conservative so if they did, where are those Conservatives like me (I voted Lib Dem this time because of Remain) or did they stay away?

Anyhow - a long night ahead, Last election should teach us to be patient.
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Well watching Sky, and one of their people said that they had seen a surge in young and graduate voters going for Labour.

TBH this might be the best thing to happen... maybe there might just be a national government of reconciliation type focused on getting a smooth and stable Brexit.

Oh and to answer your question.. those Labour voters promising to go Conservative...was before May and the Conservatives shot themselves in the foot with their many U-turns and the fact that Corbyn has shown "Prime Minister" like campaigning where as May has not.
 
PeteEU said:
~ Oh and to answer your question.. those Labour voters promising to go Conservative...was before May and the Conservatives shot themselves in the foot with their many U-turns and the fact that Corbyn has shown "Prime Minister" like campaigning where as May has not.
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No, possibly dementia tax has put off many elderly traditional Conservatives. I think those who were going to go Brexit have stayed Brexit.

Looks however like the SNP have lost quite a bit in Scotland.

Conservative down 17 Labour up 34 SNP down 22 and Lib Den up 6.

However, if these polls turn out to be wrong this is the last time pollsters ever get paid to do their job.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
No, possibly dementia tax has put off many elderly traditional Conservatives. I think those who were going to go Brexit have stayed Brexit.

Looks however like the SNP have lost quite a bit in Scotland.

Conservative down 17 Labour up 34 SNP down 22 and Lib Den up 6.

However, if these polls turn out to be wrong this is the last time pollsters ever get paid to do their job.
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I agree with the Dementia tax bit, but also that she refused to do debates hurt her big time.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
No, possibly dementia tax has put off many elderly traditional Conservatives. I think those who were going to go Brexit have stayed Brexit.

Looks however like the SNP have lost quite a bit in Scotland.

Conservative down 17 Labour up 34 SNP down 22 and Lib Den up 6.

However, if these polls turn out to be wrong this is the last time pollsters ever get paid to do their job.
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Certainly seems to me that the election was not as much about Brexit as May wanted it to be (make voters see it as being).

But yeah, early hours as yet, even where the UK exit polls are traditionally very close.
 
Chagos said:
Certainly seems to me that the election was not as much about Brexit as May wanted it to be (make voters see it as being).

But yeah, early hours as yet, even where the UK exit polls are traditionally very close.
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I think I've made this point before, but I'll make it again because it seems very relevant in the light of what seems to be happening: I think she decided that a big majority was so assured that she'd give herself a freer hand in government by getting out of all those commitments that Cameron had saddled her with.

If she does indeed either lose her majority or have it reduced the pressure on her from inside her party may seriously undermine her leadership. She said she needed a big majority to ensure a strong negotiating position in the Brexit talks. She wouldn't get that. She'd be weaker, by her logic.

Despite the exit poll, I still think she's going to have an overall majority. I think she'll have just about what she started with. It'll be enough for her to govern for 5 years, if her party let her. It will show her that the country doesn't want her to have a free hand however. If she fails to increase her majority significantly, and we'll all discuss the meaning of 'significantly', her wager on a landslide will have failed spectacularly.
 
Andalublue said:
I think I've made this point before, but I'll make it again because it seems very relevant in the light of what seems to be happening: I think she decided that a big majority was so assured that she'd give herself a freer hand in government by getting out of all those commitments that Cameron had saddled her with.

If she does indeed either lose her majority or have it reduced the pressure on her from inside her party may seriously undermine her leadership. She said she needed a big majority to ensure a strong negotiating position in the Brexit talks. She wouldn't get that. She'd be weaker, by her logic.

Despite the exit poll, I still think she's going to have an overall majority. I think she'll have just about what she started with. It'll be enough for her to govern for 5 years, if her party let her. It will show her that the country doesn't want her to have a free hand however. If she fails to increase her majority significantly, and we'll all discuss the meaning of 'significantly', her wager on a landslide will have failed spectacularly.
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I think either way Labour need to rally around Corbyn
 
Higgins86 said:
I think either way Labour need to rally around Corbyn
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Yes, they do. No matter how things resolve themselves overall, what we can say already is that the Corbyn leadership has improved Labour's performance. Young voters have been enthused to get out and vote, many for the very first time. That's very positive.

This may not be Labour's victory night, but it is surely Blairism's wake. I'm so looking forward to seeing Dimbleby interview Mandelson.
 
Andalublue said:
I think I've made this point before, but I'll make it again because it seems very relevant in the light of what seems to be happening: I think she decided that a big majority was so assured that she'd give herself a freer hand in government by getting out of all those commitments that Cameron had saddled her with.

If she does indeed either lose her majority or have it reduced the pressure on her from inside her party may seriously undermine her leadership. She said she needed a big majority to ensure a strong negotiating position in the Brexit talks. She wouldn't get that. She'd be weaker, by her logic.

Despite the exit poll, I still think she's going to have an overall majority. I think she'll have just about what she started with. It'll be enough for her to govern for 5 years, if her party let her. It will show her that the country doesn't want her to have a free hand however. If she fails to increase her majority significantly, and we'll all discuss the meaning of 'significantly', her wager on a landslide will have failed spectacularly.
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Yes, providing she gets whatever majority, the fact that her current term (had it run its course without election) would postpone the next "test", may well be spun into an achievement.

With much imagination of course and rather a cold comfort even then.

Nevertheless having the originally scheduled election for 2020 virtually coincide with the completion of Brexit could be (could have been) considered precarious.

All speculation with a lot of unknowns of course, seeing how nobody can really predict how Brexit will turn out or even if the negotiation period to finalize may find extension.
 
The "leave" effect is affecting the North (in favour of Tories) as the dementia tax affects the South in favour of Labour the young are voting Labour while the old vote Con. Ukip seem to be shedding votes 2-1 to Tory or Labour, which is better than expected. Either way, May is screwed. She gambled and lost there will be no blank cheque for brexit, and the knives will be out in her party. Boris Johnson is already 10-1 in the betting for next Tory leader!
 
Manc Skipper said:
The "leave" effect is affecting the North (in favour of Tories) as the dementia tax affects the South in favour of Labour the young are voting Labour while the old vote Con. Ukip seem to be shedding votes 2-1 to Tory or Labour, which is better than expected. Either way, May is screwed. She gambled and lost there will be no blank cheque for brexit, and the knives will be out in her party. Boris Johnson is already 10-1 in the betting for next Tory leader!
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brings to mind the old joke of "it hurts only when I larf."

"So don't larf."

I'm trying not to, Doc, but it ain't easy.:mrgreen:
 
Sweden said:
A comfortable Tory win.
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Really? Are you sure, Sweden?

There will not be Marxist-Leninist government in the UK tomorrow and Higgins will have to put his Stasi enrolement application back in he draw.
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A Marxist-Leninist government wasn't on offer from anyone, but a minority or coalition of the Left looks at least possible at 3.20am CET.

The Lib Dems will lose some of their present 9 seats and could end up with none at all - oh joy , joy unconfined!
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How unconfined is your joy now, my octogenarian friend?
 
Ex-LibDem leader Nick Clegg loses Sheffield Hallam, current LibDem leader Tim Farron in recount knife-edge. Ex LibDem big-beast Vince Cable wins back seat with massive majority!
 
No matter how the final count goes it seems this election is a big victory for Labour.
 
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