UK PM May's lead cut to just 1 point over Labour - Survation poll

British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservatives have a lead of just one percentage point over the opposition Labour Party ahead of the June 8 election, according to a Survation poll conducted for the Mail on Sunday newspaper.

The poll showed said May's lead had fallen sharply from a lead of 12 percentage points in the previous Survation/Mail on Sunday poll published on May 21.
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In the new poll, support for the Conservatives stood at 40 percent, down six percentage points and Labour were on 39 percent, up five points.

The online poll of 1,049 people was carried out on June 3.

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I'm thinking the anti-establishment trend is going to hold in the UK as well. But, I don't want to jinx it with a prediction :doh

It does not matte how many points over the Conservatives they get, it only matters if they win the seats. We need to see if this support can translate into seats.

Carjosse said:

It does not matte how many points over the Conservatives they get, it only matters if they win the seats. We need to see if this support can translate into seats.

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Care to elaborate?

Winston said:

Care to elaborate?

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Labour's biggest challenge will be getting their voters out in constituencies that matter, that is Labour's weakness as a large amount of their support comes from groups with low voter turnout. They can win the popular vote by 10 points, it does not make a difference if they do not win strategic seats. All this election will do is once again highlight the problems with FPTP.

Winston said:

I'm thinking the anti-establishment trend is going to hold in the UK as well. But, I don't want to jinx it with a prediction :doh

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A backlash to Brexit?

Carjosse said:

Labour's biggest challenge will be getting their voters out in constituencies that matter, that is Labour's weakness as a large amount of their support comes from groups with low voter turnout. They can win the popular vote by 10 points, it does not make a difference if they do not win strategic seats. All this election will do is once again highlight the problems with FPTP.

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Wow that sounds familiar...

Winston said:

Care to elaborate?

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The leader or Prime Minister (PM) is not directly elected.

The UK is broken down into 650 constituencies that each elect a member of our parliament (MP) and the party leader with the largest number of supporters within the parliament becomes the PM. The PM doesn't actually have to have a majority of people from his party in parliament but, it does tend to make life difficult with our adversarial system if he or she doesn't have a majority of MPs.

Regardless of which party is in power I have always opposed our first past the post (FPTP) electoral system because it can and often does create a tyranny for a party that has simply won the 'electoral college' rather than popular support. It also leaves us open to manipulation of the constituency borders, even with a 'Boundaries Commission' in place it is just too much temptation for the sitting government to try to solidify their position by playing about with the constituency make up.

Winston said:

I'm thinking the anti-establishment trend is going to hold in the UK as well. But, I don't want to jinx it with a prediction :doh

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May has made at least two major mistakes and a plurality of smaller ones even visible from afar. Also she doesn’t project much grasp of the vision thing; more bluster and hot air. Not much charisma. But she does have a certain aura of being a good bureaucrat.

joG said:

May has made at least two major mistakes and a plurality of smaller ones even visible from afar. Also she doesn’t project much grasp of the vision thing; more bluster and hot air. Not much charisma. But she does have a certain aura of being a good bureaucrat.

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And authoritarian, which for some reason the British seem to like. She wants to turn the UK into a true big brother surveillance state, but don't worry it is all to protect the children.

Winston said:

Care to elaborate?

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You have a seat.. there are 7 candidates (often more). There are 10000 votes in the district (for simplicity sake)

Conservative candidate gets 3000 votes out of 10000.
Labour candidate gets 2500 votes out of the 10000.
Liberal Democrat gets 1500 votes out of the 10000.
UKIP candidate gets 1000 votes out of the 10000.
Green Candidate gets 1000 votes out of the 10000.
The remaining 1000 votes are split among the rest of the candidates.

Conservatives win the seat, but only have 30% of the vote.

This the fundamental problem of the very undemocratic UK system. It means that the current government with an absolute majority only got 32% of the vote at the last election.

It basically means, that even if Labour get say 42% of the vote and the Conservatives get 41% of the vote, then the Conservatives will get more seats depending on where the labour votes fell.

Carjosse said:

Labour's biggest challenge will be getting their voters out in constituencies that matter, that is Labour's weakness as a large amount of their support comes from groups with low voter turnout.

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Traditionally that's very true. This year might, just might, be different. The reason I say that is because Corbyn has really energised younger voters with his anti-establishment positions, similar to how Bernie Sanders did in the US. The Labour Party currently has more members than any other political party in Europe, I believe. They've got thousands of people out knocking on doors and motivating participation. Add to that factor the blunder May and the Tories have made in attacking their most loyal bedrock vote: the retired pensioners. The Dementia Tax and the cutting of winter fuel allowances and the Triple Lock on state pensions could mean a backlash of those who traditionally vote Tory by a very significant margin. We'll see.

They can win the popular vote by 10 points, it does not make a difference if they do not win strategic seats. All this election will do is once again highlight the problems with FPTP.

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Those FPTP problems can cut both ways, and may well do in constituencies where the Tories and UKIP are both strong, potentially handing some seats to Labour.

I still think the Tories will win, but it's a brave person who would lay down wads of cash betting on the outcome.