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The 2017 French Presidential Election

Andalublue said:
I think you exaggerate the appeal of the middle a bit. It's the political centre that is seen as the architect of the current crises - economic policies that have led to mass unemployment and declining living standards; the crisis in the EU and the lack of accountability; the failure of national and NATO policies in the Middle East giving rise to the migration crisis; and so on. People are moving towards the far right and far left because of the failure of the centre, so I'm not sure that Macron is going to be seen as the 'anyone but Marine' candidate. You can oppose the Front National just as effectively by voting Mélenchon instead of Macron, added to which, you actually force a change to the current failing status quo.
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Mélenchon's problem is that he is a radical, people do not like radicals, especially left-leaning ones. People like the centre, it is why Corbin is going to lose the British election in June. The polls very strongly disagree with you.
 
Carjosse said:
Mélenchon's problem is that he is a radical, people do not like radicals, especially left-leaning ones. People like the centre, it is why Corbin is going to lose the British election in June. The polls very strongly disagree with you.
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This is France we're talking about. Not the UK, not Canada. The French are nowhere near as fearful of radicals as the British. Their entire republican system was created by radicals. There's a real chance they will vote overwhelmingly for Le Pen or Mélenchon in the first round - that split radical vote greatly outnumbering the centrists and reactionaries. You may be right that Macron might garner a lot of votes on the basis of being the most feasible not-Marine candidate, but you never know. He appears very bland and conventional as far as I can see, and I'm really not sure the safe, centrist establishment figures are doing very well at the moment. Anywhere.
 
Andalublue said:
This is France we're talking about. Not the UK, not Canada. The French are nowhere near as fearful of radicals as the British. Their entire republican system was created by radicals. There's a real chance they will vote overwhelmingly for Le Pen or Mélenchon in the first round - that split radical vote greatly outnumbering the centrists and reactionaries. You may be right that Macron might garner a lot of votes on the basis of being the most feasible not-Marine candidate, but you never know. He appears very bland and conventional as far as I can see, and I'm really not sure the safe, centrist establishment figures are doing very well at the moment. Anywhere.
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That is not a political culture thing, it is human nature, people like to minimize big change and Mélenchon wants to flip everything on its head. It is also uncertain exactly what he would do, he combines the two things people do not like, radicals and uncertainty. He comes off as a left-leaning Le Pen.
 
Let the German freak out begin:

A Complete Breakdown
Extremists on Left and Right Push France to the Brink
With only a few days to go before the first round of voting, a systemic crisis is dominating the campaign in France. It is no longer inconceivable that a Euroskeptic radical leftist or a far-right populist could become the country's next president. This bodes poorly for the French, but also their neighbors in Europe
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French Presidential Election a Battle of Left-Right Extremes - SPIEGEL ONLINE

This is a frightening question, one that, until recently, seldom got raised in highly developed democracies. But today it is a crucial factor in some of the world's largest, oldest democracies: in Britain, in the U.S. and now in France. In newspaper editorials and talk shows, the French are discussing whether their country's institutions have maneuvered themselves into a pre-revolutionary plight as a result of the continued incompetence of public officials. They wonder whether today's state is in fact more similar to the monarchy of old -- to the rotten Ancien Régime shortly before the French Revolution.

That may be an overreach, but it is clear that the French electorate no longer has much confidence in its political class, and that the cautious assumption of the competence of political leaders has been replaced by the suspicion of general incompetence.
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The elite are failing almost everywhere, as the result of turning in too much crap work.
 
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Infinite Chaos said:
Lay off the sauce eh?
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From the link in #55:

. . . But France is a land of youthful revolts, from the 18th century barricades to the fevered university campuses of May 1968. And with youth unemployment stuck at 25 percent, Le Pen’s reactionary call to return the country to an era of lost glory by closing borders, exiting the European Union and restoring the national currency has fired the passions of young voters craving radical change.
“We’ve been told our whole lives that everything is set. Free trade. Forgetting our borders. One currency for all of Europe. Nothing can change,” said Gaëtan Dussausaye, the mild-mannered 23-year-old leader of the National Front’s youth wing. “But young people don’t like this system. This system is a failure.”
The National Front’s strength among millennials suggests the populist wave that’s unsettled the West may be more durable than many may assume. Far from the last gasp of closed-society older voters who are demographically destined to be outnumbered by a rising tide of cosmopolitan youth, the populist insurgency could continue to build over years and decades if enough disenchanted young voters can be lured by the promise of something new. . . .
 
Jack Hays said:
From the link in #55:

. . . But France is a land of youthful revolts, from the 18th century barricades to the fevered university campuses of May 1968. And with youth unemployment stuck at 25 percent, Le Pen’s reactionary call to return the country to an era of lost glory by closing borders, exiting the European Union and restoring the national currency has fired the passions of young voters craving radical change.
“We’ve been told our whole lives that everything is set. Free trade. Forgetting our borders. One currency for all of Europe. Nothing can change,” said Gaëtan Dussausaye, the mild-mannered 23-year-old leader of the National Front’s youth wing. “But young people don’t like this system. This system is a failure.”
The National Front’s strength among millennials suggests the populist wave that’s unsettled the West may be more durable than many may assume. Far from the last gasp of closed-society older voters who are demographically destined to be outnumbered by a rising tide of cosmopolitan youth, the populist insurgency could continue to build over years and decades if enough disenchanted young voters can be lured by the promise of something new. . . .
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I have no idea why you quoted that response of mine to put that particular quote?
 
Trump predicts deadly Paris shooting will have ‘big effect’ on key French election

By James McAuley April 21, 2017

A deadly shootout on Paris’s best-known boulevard darkened the final day of campaigning Friday in France’s pivotal presidential election, as President Trump predicted that the attack would help shape the outcome of voting Sunday. Trump later told the Associated Press that the attack on French police Thursday night will “probably help” far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who has raised many of the same anti-immigrant and security issues that were pushed by Trump during his campaign. Trump said he is not explicitly endorsing Le Pen but that he believes she is the candidate who is “strongest on borders, and she’s the strongest on what’s been going on in France,” AP reported. Trump also told the news agency that he is not worried about emboldening terrorists by saying that an attack can have an impact on a democratic election. “Another terrorist attack in Paris,” Trump wrote earlier Friday in a Twitter post. “The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!”
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That Trump would (even indirectly) endorse the far-right pro-Putin Le Pen doesn't surprise me in the least. Both Trump and Le Pen manipulate fear for their political purposes.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Trump predicts deadly Paris shooting will have ‘big effect’ on key French election


That Trump would (even indirectly) endorse the far-right pro-Putin Le Pen doesn't surprise me in the least. Both Trump and Le Pen manipulate fear for their political purposes.
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No manipulation needed. The fear is real, the deniers of truth are many.

Also this from NBC News:

French Elections: Marine Le Pen Backed By Quiet Army of Women

French Elections: Marine Le Pen Backed By Quiet Army of Women - NBC News

As I see it, Le Pen is the only logical choice, as was Trump here. Hillary Clinton was the worst candidate the Democrats could put up. She couldn't even articulate why she wanted to be president.

The snowflakes can keep their heads buried in the sand of foolishness and stupidity, and deny the obvious. However, as a reasonably intelligent person, it puzzles me how people can continue the agenda of denial. :thinking
 
Jack Hays said:
Because the point was the unwisdom of dismissing Le Pen's challenge.
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Where did I do that? :confused:

My quote to Hawkeye was about his continual mention of elites while ignoring the same billionaire elites who now govern his own country.
 
Mario said:
No manipulation needed. The fear is real, the deniers of truth are many............~
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When, backing up nothing, one deems himself to be the one and only holder of (equally one and only) truth, by holding those that disagree to be deniers, one can reasonably assume that the time has come to dismiss it all as opinionated prattle.

"That's true because I say so, you're wrong because you don't agree".
However, as a reasonably intelligent person, it puzzles me...................~
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I dunno but maybe you're not as reasonably intelligent as you think? Or why would you be puzzled if reasonable intelligence provides you (or at least should) with means to work things out?
 
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The latest poll numbers I could find...

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La Pen will probably win, after Brexit and Trump this is next.
 
Apocalypse said:
La Pen will probably win, after Brexit and Trump this is next.
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Would certainly throw things up in the air if she wins. You forget though that Wilders was supposed to be part of the whole alt-right movement but he failed (again).
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Would certainly throw things up in the air if she wins. You forget though that Wilders was supposed to be part of the whole alt-right movement but he failed (again).
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In all my travels I never met a Dutchman I didn't like.
 
Macron=Hollande in disguise - Fillon=Sarkozy in disguise - Melenchon=Venezuela in disguise - Le Pen=Wilders in disguise

A bit like the US, the French also have far less than optimal choices.
 
I recently saw several videos of French police officers getting their ass beat in their own country, hamstrung by government policies that make them nothing more than targets. I hope for the French people that they elect someone that will change their course. If not...**** them...they will get everything they deserve and more. At the very least...they may at least stand as a 'tripwire'
 
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