• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

May Brexit plan already derailed.. took a few hours.

P

PeteEU

DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 11, 2006
Messages
38,998
Reaction score
14,331
Location
Denmark
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
Angela Merkel derails Theresa May's Brexit plan by rejecting parallel trade talks | The Independent

[FONT=&quot]Angela Merkel has dealt an instant blow to Theresa May's plan for Brexit by rejecting the PM's plan for trade talks to take place at the same time as Article 50 secession negotiations.[/FONT]
Click to expand...

She said..
[FONT=&quot]The German Chancellor told reporters in Berlin: "The negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle our interlinked relationship... and only when this question is dealt with, can we, hopefully soon after, begin talking about our future relationship."[/FONT]
Click to expand...

Well done Mrs Merkel. I fully agree on this point.
 
May derailed hr own plan by claiming that the outcome would be good for everybody in the UK.
 
Manc Skipper said:
May derailed hr own plan by claiming that the outcome would be good for everybody in the UK.
Click to expand...

I caught that too. Of course, it is a phrase used by politicians all the time and is always just so much fuzz. Verhofstadt just said practically the same thing just now on tv.
 
Manc Skipper said:
May derailed hr own plan by claiming that the outcome would be good for everybody in the UK.
Click to expand...

Can a politician really say, by the way there will be some who lose out drastically with us leaving the EU. That said, it would at least be in line with reality that in or out, there's always going to be a portion that lose out. No society is immune from such disparity.
 
Looks like Germany may have finally conquered Europe on try #3.
 
gunner said:
Can a politician really say, by the way there will be some who lose out drastically with us leaving the EU. That said, it would at least be in line with reality that in or out, there's always going to be a portion that lose out. No society is immune from such disparity.
Click to expand...

She's only broken up the country of Britain.
 
gunner said:
Misplaced blame, Cameron to thank for that and possibly the rabid nationalist the SNP.
Click to expand...

She's not the only one to blame, but let's not forget that while claiming to be a remainer, and whilst being the third most senior politician on the remain campaign, she did nothing during the referendum. Corbyn was crucified for his half-hearted campaign, May did less and yet no one criticised her for it.

And also let's not forget that she has opted for the hardest of hard Brexits, unnecessarily.

So no, the blame is not misplaced, She's got plenty to be ashamed of.
 
A summary:

C8FUT_wW4AQ5VNY.jpg
 
Andalublue said:
~ Corbyn was crucified for his half-hearted campaign, May did less
Click to expand...

Both were equally lukewarm at best on Remain however the Remain campaign needed Labour votes more than it needed Conservative votes. On simple demographics and social history alone, there are more people at the bottom of the pile than middle or upper tiers and income brackets - if the "working class" always voted Labour there would have been Labour govt from day one of the Labour party.

So, going back to what I said, Corbyn was seen as one possible conduit (by the Remain campaign) for that electorate - far more than May should ever be. She has since however realised her hard Brexit stance appeals to this electorate and this will keep UKIP off the Conservative Party's back.

For her, this is about politics and the focus on grabbing power rather than the national economic good.

Manc Skipper said:
A summary:

C8FUT_wW4AQ5VNY.jpg
Click to expand...

Haha, this has been doing the rounds of my Facebook and Twitter feeds.
 
Andalublue said:
She's not the only one to blame, but let's not forget that while claiming to be a remainer, and whilst being the third most senior politician on the remain campaign, she did nothing during the referendum. Corbyn was crucified for his half-hearted campaign, May did less and yet no one criticised her for it.

And also let's not forget that she has opted for the hardest of hard Brexits, unnecessarily.

So no, the blame is not misplaced, She's got plenty to be ashamed of.
Click to expand...

I'm not convinced Andy, I don't remember any talk of hard or soft Brexit prior to the vote. The out campaign pretty much ran on a very simplistic message of out means, out. We've yet to see anything concrete and I'm convinced that's because those driving us out will make it up, as they go along. The sad fact is, they give us little of substance to feel any sort of optimism. I have next to no faith in Davies, Boris et al.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Both were equally lukewarm at best on Remain however the Remain campaign needed Labour votes more than it needed Conservative votes. On simple demographics and social history alone, there are more people at the bottom of the pile than middle or upper tiers and income brackets - if the "working class" always voted Labour there would have been Labour govt from day one of the Labour party.

So, going back to what I said, Corbyn was seen as one possible conduit (by the Remain campaign) for that electorate - far more than May should ever be. She has since however realised her hard Brexit stance appeals to this electorate and this will keep UKIP off the Conservative Party's back.

For her, this is about politics and the focus on grabbing power rather than the national economic good.



Haha, this has been doing the rounds of my Facebook and Twitter feeds.
Click to expand...

Agree. Corbyn should have played a far more vocal and prominent role, fact. I remember one crucial weekend when he attended some rally for disadvantaged Hedgehogs (or something as meaningless) instead of EU duties.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
For her, this is about politics and the focus on grabbing power rather than the national economic good.
Click to expand...
We agree on that at least.

Haha, this has been doing the rounds of my Facebook and Twitter feeds.
Click to expand...
Funny, and very true.

gunner said:
I'm not convinced Andy, I don't remember any talk of hard or soft Brexit prior to the vote. The out campaign pretty much ran on a very simplistic message of out means, out.
Click to expand...
Except May was supposedly one of the leaders of the Remain campaign.

We've yet to see anything concrete and I'm convinced that's because those driving us out will make it up, as they go along. The sad fact is, they give us little of substance to feel any sort of optimism. I have next to no faith in Davies, Boris et al.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Me neither.
 
I have a question...can Britain not just leave and tell the EU to piss off? Legally...not whether they should or not.

I am quite sure individual countries would make trade deals with the UK almost right away...they want access to the UK market almost as much as the UK wants access to their markets.
 
DA60 said:
I have a question...can Britain not just leave and tell the EU to piss off? Legally...not whether they should or not.
Click to expand...

Of course they could. However that would have massive consequences.

I am quite sure individual countries would make trade deals with the UK almost right away...they want access to the UK market almost as much as the UK wants access to their markets.
Click to expand...

You would be wrong. Any trade deal the UK has to do, is linked to their access to the EU market. No country is willing to make a trade deal with the UK, if it risks in any way their access to a 500 million person market in the EU.

Also the UK would be in a very weak position. How can you trust them in any deal, if they are willing to just walk away from its commitments willy nilly (as they say). Lets put it this way, would you trust someone that constantly broke their word and lied?
 
gunner said:
I'm not convinced Andy, I don't remember any talk of hard or soft Brexit prior to the vote. The out campaign pretty much ran on a very simplistic message of out means, out. We've yet to see anything concrete and I'm convinced that's because those driving us out will make it up, as they go along. The sad fact is, they give us little of substance to feel any sort of optimism. I have next to no faith in Davies, Boris et al.
Click to expand...

Actually, what was horrifying about the campaign before the referendum was how badly the pro EU (and EU from afar) argued. They had nothing convincing to say. I was surprised by how poorly they spun their case.
 
PeteEU said:
Of course they could. However that would have massive consequences.
Click to expand...
And what EXACTLY are the massive consequences - other than trade?



You would be wrong.
Click to expand...
Ummm..no, I would not be. I said I am 'quite sure'; not 'it is'. That is a description of my feelings...not the facts. You cannot know what my feelings are. Next time, I suggest you read what I typed and not assume it means what you want it to mean.

Any trade deal the UK has to do, is linked to their access to the EU market. No country is willing to make a trade deal with the UK, if it risks in any way their access to a 500 million person market in the EU.
Click to expand...
So, no single country in the EU is allowed to make a trade deal with a country outside the EU? Well that's stupid AND constricting.

Also, the EU would not be a '500 million person market' once the UK left.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/253383/total-population-of-the-eu-member-states-by-country/

Also the UK would be in a very weak position. How can you trust them in any deal, if they are willing to just walk away from its commitments willy nilly (as they say). Lets put it this way, would you trust someone that constantly broke their word and lied?
Click to expand...

a) I trust no one. Anyone who trusts anyone else in business is a fool - and you know what they say about a fool and his money?

b) No they wouldn't be in a 'very' weak position, imo. Obviously, the only reason they would bolt from the EU is that the latter are making unreasonable demands. Other countries are not stupid, privately they would see and understand that (even if publicly they might not).
So long as the UK pays whatever reasonable 'fees' are required...other countries will not mind.

c) The UK has the 5'th largest GDP in the entire world. If you think other countries will care that it bolted from a lousy EU deal enough to stop them from having access to that huge market - than, with respect, you do not understand how macroeconomics works. 'Greed' is ALWAYS the name of the game...and greed ALWAYS wins out.
Unless the EU does something draconian and flat out bans EU trade to the UK, individual countries in the EU would continue to trade with GB...guaranteed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

d) Internal political pressure. You really think that government's of even EU countries are going to just sit back and NOT trade with Britain - and piss off all those voters who would/might lose their jobs due to the constriction of exports and the layoffs that would follow?
Come on now. Little/no chance of that.

Money talks...almost always does in business and trade.


BTW - are you pro or anti Brexit?
 
Last edited:
joG said:
Actually, what was horrifying about the campaign before the referendum was how badly the pro EU (and EU from afar) argued. They had nothing convincing to say. I was surprised by how poorly they spun their case.
Click to expand...

I think that's a universally accepted claim. Both sides were appalling and failed in their duty; hence the vacuum was filled with a UKIP narrative, the rest is history.
 
The EU couldn't agree on the colour of ****e and the UK should walk away tomorrow.
 
Eanto said:
The EU couldn't agree on the colour of ****e and the UK should walk away tomorrow.
Click to expand...

I always enjoy sensible input.
 
gunner said:
I think that's a universally accepted claim. Both sides were appalling and failed in their duty; hence the vacuum was filled with a UKIP narrative, the rest is history.
Click to expand...

What with the Brexit crowd out of the way is interesting now is how the pro EU people are going about remedying it. I think it appaling. Maybe more so than the initial failure.
After all, they have been warned now.
 
DA60 said:
And what EXACTLY are the massive consequences - other than trade?
Click to expand...

Just some of the many problems.

1) Every Brit in the EU would be an illegal alien. Every EU citizen in the UK would be illegal alien as well.
2) All air travel would stop, as airlines flying from the UK would not have access to EU air space.
3) Travel from and to the UK will stop, as there is no visa system in place.

the list goes on and on.

So, no single country in the EU is allowed to make a trade deal with a country outside the EU? Well that's stupid AND constricting.
Click to expand...

It is a common market. You dont have Alabama making trade deals with Mexico do you now? And it is not entirely true. Where the EU acts as a block on trade, there the individual countries cant have their own deals. So for example, trade with Canada now, is a common trade agreement because the EU made a free trade deal with Canada. That means the UK cant undercut that, at least until they are out.

But that does not mean that countries cant do trade deals with countries that are not part of a common trade agreement. India and China and the US come to mind. The UK can make trade deals with the US, as long as it is within the parameters of the common market and customs union. That is why Germany, France and Belgium have far more trade with India than the UK has.... there is no EU trade agreement with India, so it is for the most part up to each country. That India does not want to do business with the UK, is of course up to India and not the fault of the EU.

Also, the EU would not be a '500 million person market' once the UK left.
Click to expand...

Okay 450 million market..Still the second biggest market on the planet after China.

a) I trust no one. Anyone who trusts anyone else in business is a fool - and you know what they say about a fool and his money?
Click to expand...

So you are against contract law? You dont have a bank account? Are you calling yourself a fool if you do? Would you want a deal with a bank that has a history of stealing your money and breaking promises? If you have an employee on contract that steals from you, dont you fire him? Or are you a fool that allows him to continue to screw you over?

b) No they wouldn't be in a 'very' weak position, imo. Obviously, the only reason they would bolt from the EU is that the latter are making unreasonable demands. Other countries are not stupid, privately they would see and understand that (even if publicly they might not).
Click to expand...

What unreasonable demands? The UK bolted due to xenophobia and nationalism gone amok. There is no rational explanation for them leaving, nor any unreasonable demands. The UK has gotten almost every single demand met since it joined for **** sake. They are the only country with a rebate on their yearly fee because they feel they are paying too big a fee. Europe has bent over backwards to accommodate the UK and yet the UK stabs Europe in the back one final time..

So long as the UK pays whatever reasonable 'fees' are required...other countries will not mind.
Click to expand...

One of those fees will be freedom of movement of peoples... it is reasonable and fair, and one the UK has stated it wont pay.

More follows in next post
 
c) The UK has the 5'th largest GDP in the entire world. If you think other countries will care that it bolted from a lousy EU deal enough to stop them from having access to that huge market - than, with respect, you do not understand how macroeconomics works. 'Greed' is ALWAYS the name of the game...and greed ALWAYS wins out.
Click to expand...

And so what. It is the 5th largest GDP in the world because it was in the EU and had access to a massive 450+ market outside its own 60 million market. Yes greed is the name of the game, but when it is between the nr 1 market in the world and the 5th largest GDP in the world.... then I know who will win. No one will want to do a trade deal with the UK, as long as their situation with the EU is unclear and any trade deal with the UK will be conditional on how much access that the UK has to the EU market. If that access is highly limited, then the attractiveness of the UK will go down considerably. Even Reagan said that to Thatcher when she threatened to leave the EU back in the 80s.

Unless the EU does something draconian and flat out bans EU trade to the UK, individual countries in the EU would continue to trade with GB...guaranteed.
Click to expand...

Why on earth would the EU do that? If anything it is the UK that will "ban" its trade with the rest of the world, by demanding way too much. It is simple. Do you want access to the EU market, then you have the following conditions to meet. 1) Freedom of movement of peoples and goods. 2) Follow EU regulations and rules on the common market. 3) Pay a membership fee which is to be determined. These 3 points are followed by everyone that has a free trade agreement with the EU, including Norway and Switzerland. The UK has already stated that it wont do point 1, and 2 and is sceptical about point 3. To me that sounds like the problem here is not the EU, but the UK who wants to get a divorce, but still have access to the martial bed whenever he wants to have some fun. Aint going to happen.

d) Internal political pressure. You really think that government's of even EU countries are going to just sit back and NOT trade with Britain - and piss off all those voters who would/might lose their jobs due to the constriction of exports and the layoffs that would follow?
Click to expand...

Goes both ways. Around 50% of UK exports goes to the EU, while the biggest exporter to the UK is Germany with about 6% or something like that. Who do you think will be under the biggest pressure to secure a deal? Add to that, that the UK has a problem with its industry. The car industry, which is its 3rd largest, exports 80+% of its cars to... the EU/Europe. It is also owned by Europeans, Americans or Asians. They will move their production if there is no free trade. The banks are already moving their European business to the EU, and that is a huge portion of the City of London. Airlines are scrambling to move their HQ out of the UK because of the uncertainty. Even British Airways is not "British" any more, as it is technically HQed in Spain.

Money talks...almost always does in business and trade.
Click to expand...

Yes it does, and banks are moving out of the UK, the car industry .. the nr 3 biggest industry, is also moving. Even Lloyds of London is moving business to Europe!

BTW - are you pro or anti Brexit?
Click to expand...

Both. I dont want the UK to leave, but I am tired of their arrogant obstructionist behaviour that has prevented needed reforms in Europe.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom