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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?


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Infinite Chaos

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Well, this is the week it all starts for real. Things are likely to start slowly but will heat up pretty quickly - probably not before (as stated on Breakfast TV this morning) the German elections.

I'll post and add to this thread (hopefully there'll be lots of relevant contributions over time) as we progress. How will "Brexit" go - I suppose that depends on whether you voted Remain or Leave.

What are your hopes for the process and outcome? (The basic outcome is "we're out" but will it be a disaster or will we be able to make it a success?
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Well, this is the week it all starts for real. Things are likely to start slowly but will heat up pretty quickly - probably not before (as stated on Breakfast TV this morning) the German elections.

I'll post and add to this thread (hopefully there'll be lots of relevant contributions over time) as we progress. How will "Brexit" go - I suppose that depends on whether you voted Remain or Leave.

What are your hopes for the process and outcome? (The basic outcome is "we're out" but will it be a disaster or will we be able to make it a success?

There will not be a particularly 'hard' Brexit because the EU - read Germany - needs continued low or zero tariffs more than does the UK. Even if trade were to be conducted on WTO terms that would be no disaster. Most of world trade is done under WTO rules, very successfully.

When, eventually, there is another 'independence' referendum in Scotland the Jocks will vote to stay in the UK by an even bigger majority than last time. Partly so that thy can continue to blame öthe results of their own failings on the wicked English. And partly because they know on which side their bread is buttered.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

There will not be a particularly 'hard' Brexit because the EU - read Germany - needs continued low or zero tariffs more than does the UK. Even if trade were to be conducted on WTO terms that would be no disaster. Most of world trade is done under WTO rules, very successfully.

When, eventually, there is another 'independence' referendum in Scotland the Jocks will vote to stay in the UK by an even bigger majority than last time. Partly so that thy can continue to blame öthe results of their own failings on the wicked English. And partly because they know on which side their bread is buttered.

The oil is about done and the prices suck anyways.....they dont have choice but to stay.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Is the thing they are leaving even going to be here in five years?

That's my problem with the question.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

The process will start after the EU summit on the subject in a months time. That leaves 23 months left, but more realistically like 18 months before a deal has to be in place.

Personally I think the UK will be forced to prioritise deals on individual areas rather than a grand bargain type of thing. This of course means the EU has to agree to this, which is possible despite the provocations by the May government.

There is a hell of a lot to figure out.

Rights of EU citizens in the UK
Rights of Brits in the EU
Freedom of movement
Healthcare payment for EU citizens in the UK and Brits in the EU. <---- Could be very expensive for the UK
Northern Irish border. <---- could be the biggest problem.
Payment of dues by the UK (pensions and so on).

And that is all before we even get talking about trade. The longer there is no deal with trade, the more jobs move from the UK to the EU. It has already started and the flood gates will open when companies just how bad the May government is in negotiations and how weak they are.

Like it or not, the negotiations are going to start in a big negative due to the actions and words of the May government. Openly discriminating against EU citizens already in the UK could mean retaliation against Brits in the EU.. although I hope the EU will take it on the chin at the moment to show that they are the bigger and more mature negotiator.

As for the key elections coming in Europe. The biggest test was in Holland, and the far right flopped big time. As it stands now, Le Pen will only be nr 2 in the first round of the French Presidential elections and would lose badly against any opponent in the second round. In Germany, Merkel won big in the Saarland this weekend, and despite that, the anti-EU parties will be no where near gaining power nationally. It will be a fight between the CDU/CSU and SPD. Will the EU wait for the German election? Doubt it, as the policies of France and Germany wont change because of the elections. Holland could have possibly thrown a big wrench in the wheel, but that did not happen.

The funny part is that, May had a chance of destroying EU unity, but her actions or lack of action, has meant that even traditional UK allies in the EU, have been backing off in favour of the EU. Will it continue.. we shall see.

End result will be that the UK will have to work with WTO trade rules at the start at least and the final deal will be minimal on freedom of movement.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Well, this is the week it all starts for real. Things are likely to start slowly but will heat up pretty quickly - probably not before (as stated on Breakfast TV this morning) the German elections.

I'll post and add to this thread (hopefully there'll be lots of relevant contributions over time) as we progress. How will "Brexit" go - I suppose that depends on whether you voted Remain or Leave.

What are your hopes for the process and outcome? (The basic outcome is "we're out" but will it be a disaster or will we be able to make it a success?

What is surprising is the irrational behavior of the British government. Though, GB does seem to have voting rights in the Eu institutions and the majorities required for decisions on the Eu to remain unchanged till exit, it remains irresponsible to trigger at this time.
As to the negotiations from the side of the Eu, one real difficulty will be finding unanimity or concerning some policies even majorities. The external shock i.e. impact from the varying structures of Brexit will be very different from one member country to every other. For some a very hard exit would be excellent in principle and for others quite tough. Also to be mentioned is that an impact that might be mild in the first periods might be quite destructive a couple of years later.

This is all true for political, social and economic aspects. The centrifugal forces can be too great to withstand economically or relatively mild, if the Eu goes for a very soft Brexit. The consequences then could be explosive as groups around the member nations would see how beneficial it might be to leave. Similar problems occur with the treatment of Scotland, should it want to join the Eu.

Personally, I don't really think anyone can tell, what will happen. Ominous is the very idea that one might even dream of waiting to delay negotiations till after a member has held its elections or agreed a new administration a number of months, when there are only twentyfour to begin with or that knowing this it seems astounding that GB would trigger at this time.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

I think the EU will flourish now that we do not have the big whiny Brits to deal with when making agreements and deals. But the EU will not move forward into one nation and will deal with some of the issues which the British had with the EU.

I think for the UK it will be a less rosy time.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

I think the EU will flourish now that we do not have the big whiny Brits to deal with when making agreements and deals. But the EU will not move forward into one nation and will deal with some of the issues which the British had with the EU.

I think for the UK it will be a less rosy time.


Yes because we were holding back the Eurozone for all these years :lamo
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

I met with a man from London this morning who was in town on personal business but works overseas in advertising. He said the main worry for most people right now is what happens with the currency exchange rates, and everybody he knows is very, very concerned about that.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Yes because we were holding back the Eurozone for all these years :lamo

Well, in some cases you really did. Making a consensus is much more difficult with the UK in it IMHO.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Yes because we were holding back the Eurozone for all these years :lamo

Actually the UK is/was part of the problem. Now the Eurozone has many problems, but when the Eurozone wanted to do something about it, like creating bank regulations in the EU.. guess who blocked that?
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Actually the UK is/was part of the problem. Now the Eurozone has many problems, but when the Eurozone wanted to do something about it, like creating bank regulations in the EU.. guess who blocked that?

Oh I agree we were a pain in the butt. Sometimes I think we saved you from yourselves but overall, it'll be interesting to see how things progress once we have left. I don't think other countries will leave unless the EU moves to address many of the fears and concerns the public in many countries have.

Anyhow, very interesting program on TV last night. If you can see it, watch this.

BBC iPlayer - Question Time - Britain after Brexit
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Oh I agree we were a pain in the butt. Sometimes I think we saved you from yourselves
That's what I call an interesting take and, come the weekend, I'll share it at a party with some French and German neighbors.

I already hear the laughter (they give me no flak on account of long since considering me a turncoat for the "continent").:mrgreen:
but overall, it'll be interesting to see how things progress once we have left. I don't think other countries will leave unless the EU moves to address many of the fears and concerns the public in many countries have.
That doesn't sound quite right so I'm assuming you're meaning that others leaving may happen if the EU does NOT address many of the public fears and concerns.

Anyhow, very interesting program on TV last night. If you can see it, watch this.

BBC iPlayer - Question Time - Britain after Brexit
Unfortunately I cannot but I saw a feature on German Satellite TV with their UK correspondent trying to discover and gauge "the soul" of the Brexiteer.

In Great Yarmouth (of course :roll:), showing a well-to-do Brit there who, while driving the reporter around the countryside in his Rolls, chirped on about how there'd now be a revival of the British car industry.

It's been some years since I was last in that part of the country, but at the time they had both newspapers and TV. Things must have changed badly since.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Brexit MPs walk out on committee hearing: This one definitely depends on your viewpoint. The Brexit supporters will complain about project fear and that there will be no disaster and Remain MPs will argue this is a clear-headed assessment of our prospects. Only time will tell.[/quote]


Scottish parliament backs 2nd referendum call: another sign of current events, the Scottish Parliament moves to call for another referendum and in a very expected response, UK Gov says "not yet you don't."


That's what I call an interesting take and, come the weekend, I'll share it at a party with some French and German neighbors.

A little extra delay to solve issues always helps. Anyhow, let me know how your friends react... :mrgreen:

~ That doesn't sound quite right so I'm assuming you're meaning that others leaving may happen if the EU does NOT address many of the public fears and concerns.

Thought that was what I wrote?

~ In Great Yarmouth (of course :roll:) ~

A very Brexit region, affected by fishing quotas etc. There can be little avoiding the huge impact large numbers of arrivals have had on local services. PeteEU will always make the point that local and national Govt should have reacted and taken the taxes paid by those new arrivals to fund local services. I have no idea why it hasn't happened but those who argued Remain while in govt didn't do what was necessary to minimise the impact and we had a very angry local populace as a result. Whatever we may think of them - they are voters and they weren't taken heed of.

Same as the local low-paid jobs situation people complain about migrants taking the jobs - local Govt should have incentivised people to take up work instead of benefits. We will still have that situation after Brexit - those jobs need filling and locals still won't be taking them.

Voters eh, gotta love em.!
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

~........A little extra delay to solve issues always helps. Anyhow, let me know how your friends react... :mrgreen:
predictions are not difficult, even now.
Thought that was what I wrote?
Well, if the "unless" were replaced by an "if"in the sentence "I don't think other countries will leave unless the EU moves to address many of the fears and concerns........" that would be closer to home methinks. Obviously you were not going to say that the EU addressing fears and concerns would cause the leaving of others.

Not to make a meal of it though ;)
A very Brexit region, affected by fishing quotas etc. There can be little avoiding the huge impact large numbers of arrivals have had on local services.
Hence my sarcasm at the example picked. Let's by all means NOT address the fears and worries of Joe Bloggs not being able to get his trawler running anymore, let's take some eccentric local dork with a Rolls and tons of money to exemplify how daft the Brits are. Nothing like going in search of confirmation of clichés (and bollocks to you, German TV, while we're at it).
PeteEU will always make the point that local and national Govt should have reacted and taken the taxes paid by those new arrivals to fund local services. I have no idea why it hasn't happened but those who argued Remain while in govt didn't do what was necessary to minimise the impact and we had a very angry local populace as a result.
The UK is actually no exception in this sort of thing, the main solution by lazy and irresponsible governments to
Whatever we may think of them - they are voters and they weren't taken heed of.
always having been selling the take of "claim all successes for ourselves, put the blame for all failures at Brussels' doorstep.
Same as the local low-paid jobs situation people complain about migrants taking the jobs - local Govt should have incentivised people to take up work instead of benefits. We will still have that situation after Brexit - those jobs need filling and locals still won't be taking them.
Yup, totally agree.

Divorcing oneself from an always conveniently ready scapegoat has consequences.

Voters eh, gotta love em.!
add politicos and media and shoot 'em all.:mrgreen:


P.S. I incidentally voted that

1. The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

2. The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

I dare not speculate over whether Brexit will be soft or hard but if it's going to be the hard version, no amount of WTO rules will give that a positive flair as compared to what went before.
 
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Re: How will Brexit go?

...

A very Brexit region, affected by fishing quotas etc. There can be little avoiding the huge impact large numbers of arrivals have had on local services. PeteEU will always make the point that local and national Govt should have reacted and taken the taxes paid by those new arrivals to fund local services. I have no idea why it hasn't happened but those who argued Remain while in govt didn't do what was necessary to minimise the impact and we had a very angry local populace as a result. Whatever we may think of them - they are voters and they weren't taken heed of.

Same as the local low-paid jobs situation people complain about migrants taking the jobs - local Govt should have incentivised people to take up work instead of benefits. We will still have that situation after Brexit - those jobs need filling and locals still won't be taking them.

Voters eh, gotta love em.!


Pehaps not so much in Norfolk, where harvests are heavily mechanised, but next door in Lincolnshire they're already ringing alam bells about the lack of seasonal workers to pick the vegetable crops. They're not arriving from Europe due to the uncertainty and perceived hostitlty of the UK. They can't pay locals enough to do the work and the crops are ging to rot in the fields unless something radical is done.

Public opinion in Britain is steadilt swinging away from Brexit. Whether May will listen is something else. Interesting times ahead.

C8BFdfyXgAAnNWa.jpg:large
 
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Re: How will Brexit go?

A very Brexit region, affected by fishing quotas etc. There can be little avoiding the huge impact large numbers of arrivals have had on local services. PeteEU will always make the point that local and national Govt should have reacted and taken the taxes paid by those new arrivals to fund local services. I have no idea why it hasn't happened but those who argued Remain while in govt didn't do what was necessary to minimise the impact and we had a very angry local populace as a result. Whatever we may think of them - they are voters and they weren't taken heed of.

There is a very simple explanation for why it has not happened... the UK is very top down controlled. Meaning that funding and policy is pretty much set at Westminister and not locally. Local government have relative to other places in Europe, especially in Scandinavia and Germany, relatively little influence on what taxes are collected and used.

Add to this, a massive deficit that government cant plug because it is not willing to do the pragmatic things needed, and you have a top down leadership that micromanages much of the country when they see fit (see what the attitude towards Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales is when it comes to basic information about Brexit). It is not much different than communist countries ... and that is being blunt.

The key here is that, unlike Germany or other places, the influx of people has happened overtime, which gives local, regional and national government plenty of time to react and plan. The fact that they failed to do so, is a political failure that some could argue was deliberate as "blaming outsiders" has become the thing to do, regardless if it is the EU, UN, random country or those foreginers that are coming in.

But all this is now going to come home to roost, so to say. The Tories cant blame the EU for their own failures soon, and blaming foreigners might be problematic when the UK supposedly has full control over its borders. Then who are they going to blame.. Labour? May and the Tories are politically moving closer and closer to a corner that will be impossible to come out of,... at least in a democratic type way. They could always just put a full blown dictatorship in place and manipulate media and everything else from their golden castles...
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

~ Obviously you were not going to say that the EU addressing fears and concerns would cause the leaving of others ~

I'll have a look back - been a long week so far.

Not to make a meal of it though ;)~

Far be it for you not to... :mrgreen:

~ the influx of people has happened overtime, which gives local, regional and national government plenty of time to react and plan ~

This has always puzzled me as it wasn't just a Conservative policy but also a Labour policy or lack of policy once the numbers from Europe started to arrive. Mind you, having said that - it was raised repeatedly last night that around 50% of the increase in migration to the UK in the last 10+ years is from outside the EU, immigration that could have been dealt with to reduce or manage the impact on services and communities.

"Reap" and "sow" comes to mind.


I think we're coming down in numbers to the Brexit at any cost electorate... The ones who will drive whatever deal we end up with.

~ I don't think other countries will leave unless the EU moves to address many of the fears and concerns the public in many countries have ~

OK, an unclear message. Not enough alcohol and too many reports to write in the next 2 hours.
 
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Re: How will Brexit go?

What is surprising is the irrational behavior of the British government. Though, GB does seem to have voting rights in the Eu institutions and the majorities required for decisions on the Eu to remain unchanged till exit, it remains irresponsible to trigger at this time.
As to the negotiations from the side of the Eu, one real difficulty will be finding unanimity or concerning some policies even majorities. The external shock i.e. impact from the varying structures of Brexit will be very different from one member country to every other. For some a very hard exit would be excellent in principle and for others quite tough. Also to be mentioned is that an impact that might be mild in the first periods might be quite destructive a couple of years later.

This is all true for political, social and economic aspects. The centrifugal forces can be too great to withstand economically or relatively mild, if the Eu goes for a very soft Brexit. The consequences then could be explosive as groups around the member nations would see how beneficial it might be to leave. Similar problems occur with the treatment of Scotland, should it want to join the Eu.

Personally, I don't really think anyone can tell, what will happen. Ominous is the very idea that one might even dream of waiting to delay negotiations till after a member has held its elections or agreed a new administration a number of months, when there are only twentyfour to begin with or that knowing this it seems astounding that GB would trigger at this time.

Again WTF are you babbling on about, not triggering at this time? The UK voted out, the government is invoking the will of the people, and all sides want this **** done now. We'll end up with what we deserve. Whatever that ends up looking like.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

:roflIronic that some of the most indoctrinated europhiles voted the EU will change to reflect that which drove Brexit
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Pehaps not so much in Norfolk, where harvests are heavily mechanised, but next door in Lincolnshire they're already ringing alam bells about the lack of seasonal workers to pick the vegetable crops. They're not arriving from Europe due to the uncertainty and perceived hostitlty of the UK. They can't pay locals enough to do the work and the crops are ging to rot in the fields unless something radical is done.
Well, neither Germany nor Spain (to pick two somewhat juxtaposed economies) are a brim with seasonal agricultural workers of local (national) status.

Any increase in wage (and be it considerable) isn't going to get the average Spaniard or German (or French, for that matter) breaking his or her back in the fields.

To stick with some of the more daft examples of EU conduct, I remember years ago asking a Spanish neighbor to "do" my olive trees and he could keep all the crop (gains) by way of recompensation.

No dice, he wasn't even harvesting his own (considerably more than I have) on account of Spanish farmers being EU-subsidized on the number of trees they owned (not what they harvested from them).

When it became apparent to even a sluggish body like the EU that there was simply no way for that large a number of trees existing in the world (let alone Spain, Italy and Greece) as reported, they changed the manner of subsidy by applying it to kilos of olives submitted.

Fury here was boundless but in the end olive harvests resumed. Not to detract from the fact that big plantation owners (those that could afford to pay someone) employed "illegal" Moroccans and, when that entailed too much legal hassle with the local authorities, "legal" (by then) Romanians.

Point being that harvesting was worth it again, even for those insufficiently "liquid" to have to work at it themselves.

I know one can't transport the example onto large agricultural estates in the UK, the principle is still similar though.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

:roflIronic that some of the most indoctrinated europhiles voted the EU will change to reflect that which drove Brexit
Actually you'll find that those most enthusiastic about the EU are also those that feel that it doesn't merit much enthusiasm in its current manner of being operated (so far).

And to those it is also quite apparent that what drove Brexit is hardly something anyone else wants to share into.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Again WTF are you babbling on about, not triggering at this time? The UK voted out, the government is invoking the will of the people, and all sides want this **** done now. We'll end up with what we deserve. Whatever that ends up looking like.
Wait for Theresa to invoke tomorrow and maybe that'll get thru to even the thickest skull, thus causing this rubbish to end.:mrgreen:

Hopefully we'll no longer get theoretical scenarios of how manipulative skullduggery should supersede referendum results of a nation.:roll:
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Theresa May thinks she can block our quest for independence ... their is a simple way round it for us Remember this quote from Margret Thatcher in the 1980s so we will play Westminster at their own game we have 56 SNP MPs at Westminster
well the strategy should be all 56 SNP MPs resign from Westminster causing 56 by elections fought on the grounds of a simple SNP majority = Independence

17240237_10211154885000732_6710845567594471171_o.jpg
 
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