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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Infinite Chaos said:
The world has rotated and moved on thousands of miles since I replied to your post in the previous decade.
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2019 was not the previous decade.

The next decade starts on Jan 1st 2021 (can you not count?)


Elementary school standards must be slipping - especially in the three R's.
 
Hamish Howl said:
After that last election, there is no denying what the British people want.

Sucks for anyone whose market is in the UK, obviously...But this national frenzy to collectively shoot themselves in the junk is pretty much settled now.

So we just wait for the carnage, and hope the overspill isn't too bad.
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Why does it suck if your market is in the UK ?

Why is Brexit "shooting themselves in the junk"

Why do you expect to see carnage ?
 
Rich2018 said:
2019 was not the previous decade.

The next decade starts on Jan 1st 2021 (can you not count?)


Elementary school standards must be slipping - especially in the three R's.
Click to expand...

Manners certainly slipped. The earth has still rotated and moved thousands of miles since you asked your empty question.
 
Rich2018 said:
Why does it suck if your market is in the UK ?

Why is Brexit "shooting themselves in the junk"

Why do you expect to see carnage ?
Click to expand...

Because in the very near future, the UK will not be buying much at all.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Manners certainly slipped. The earth has still rotated and moved thousands of miles since you asked your empty question.
Click to expand...

Oh you sound like Prince Edward

Manners certainly have slipped...especially about "empty" questions.


:lamo
 
Hamish Howl said:
After that last election, there is no denying what the British people want.

Sucks for anyone whose market is in the UK, obviously...But this national frenzy to collectively shoot themselves in the junk is pretty much settled now.

So we just wait for the carnage, and hope the overspill isn't too bad.
Click to expand...

Not really. The reality is the remaners and Labour (and to some degree the wannabe conservatives) bent over backwards to not just stop Brexit but humiliate the wet behind the ears newly anointed Prime Minister who now will hold everyone's feet to the fire to get it done by the end of 2020 with or without a trade deal. I fully expect he will now get it done as he has rejected the EU's overtures it may take much longer than a year. He is in the driver's seat and the EU cannot afford a no deal at the end of the year.
 
Drawdown said:
Not really. The reality is the remaners and Labour (and to some degree the wannabe conservatives) bent over backwards to not just stop Brexit but humiliate the wet behind the ears newly anointed Prime Minister who now will hold everyone's feet to the fire to get it done by the end of 2020 with or without a trade deal. I fully expect he will now get it done as he has rejected the EU's overtures it may take much longer than a year. He is in the driver's seat and the EU cannot afford a no deal at the end of the year.
Click to expand...

They're gonna do it anyway.
 
Rich2018 said:
Why would that happen?

Won't Europe want to trade with the UK, they'd be economically suicidal if they refuse to.
Click to expand...

Doesn't matter. They're going to treat them as a "third nation", and there will be no trade agreements in place. Legally they can't do business with them.

Which leads the UK to taking whatever crumbs the USA or China will offer them, at usurious rates. They're gonna get scalped.
 
Whole thing here clearly going (once again :roll:) towards the fantasy of "no deal will hurt Europe more than it'll hurt the Brits".

Dream world 4.0
 
Hamish Howl said:
Doesn't matter. They're going to treat them as a "third nation", and there will be no trade agreements in place. Legally they can't do business with them.

Which leads the UK to taking whatever crumbs the USA or China will offer them, at usurious rates. They're gonna get scalped.
Click to expand...

1. Would not WTO rules provide a framework of last resort?
2. It might be that the USA and/or China would see their best interest in a generous arrangement.
 
Jack Hays said:
1. Would not WTO rules provide a framework of last resort?
2. It might be that the USA and/or China would see their best interest in a generous arrangement.
Click to expand...

1. In the same way that if every Western state stopped doing business with California, but at least there's still the East coast. Nobody survives losing ~ 40% of their market.

2. Yes. Generous, like piranha. Or bankruptcy liquidators.
 
Chagos said:
Whole thing here clearly going (once again :roll:) towards the fantasy of "no deal will hurt Europe more than it'll hurt the Brits".

Dream world 4.0
Click to expand...

Frankly, no deal will hurt the entire world. Worst case, the world suddenly loses 6% of its economy. By contrast, the great depression stopped 5% of the world's economy.

But it won't matter. A combination of treaty obligations and butthurt on all sides will prevent any sort of mitigation.
 
Hamish Howl said:
Doesn't matter. They're going to treat them as a "third nation", and there will be no trade agreements in place. Legally they can't do business with them.
Click to expand...

Of course they can, BMW can still sell cars in Britain, deal or no deal

Which leads the UK to taking whatever crumbs the USA or China will offer them, at usurious rates. They're gonna get scalped.
Click to expand...

You're living in a fantasy world.


Britain has been trading with Europe for hundreds of years.
 
Hamish Howl said:
Frankly, no deal will hurt the entire world. Worst case, the world suddenly loses 6% of its economy. By contrast, the great depression stopped 5% of the world's economy.

But it won't matter. A combination of treaty obligations and butthurt on all sides will prevent any sort of mitigation.
Click to expand...
The main point in all this, something that all other EU members agree on FOR ONCE, is that a state that leaves can't be made as well off as it was when still a member.

As such a trade agreement that is as amiable as, say, the Japan-EU FTA will still be a come-down from what the UK had when it was still a member of the EU.

But if BoJo thinks he can get something better than that by threatening a no-deal otherwise, he's nuts. The EU won't blink alone on the consideration outlined above.
 
Rich2018 said:
Of course they can, BMW can still sell cars in Britain, deal or no deal



You're living in a fantasy world.


Britain has been trading with Europe for hundreds of years.
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Now we'll be trading with Europe from outside the single market. We'll still buy but tariffs will reduce the amount of sales. German manufacturers still see more overall everywhere else so they won't suffer much however the UK domestic buyer will have to pay more for EU goods. We're not about to suddenly buy American cars to infill.

Rich2018 said:
Oh you sound like Prince Edward

Manners certainly have slipped...especially about "empty" questions.
Click to expand...

You just quoting me to ask dumb questions or post inane comment again?
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Now we'll be trading with Europe from outside the single market. We'll still buy but tariffs will reduce the amount of sales. German manufacturers still see more overall everywhere else so they won't suffer much however the UK domestic buyer will have to pay more for EU goods. We're not about to suddenly buy American cars to infill.
Click to expand...

Why will the British government impose tariffs on German built cars ?

Higher prices = less sales so why would Britain or Germany be in favor of that ?
You're just making ill-informed assumptions


You just quoting me to ask dumb questions or post inane comment again?
Click to expand...


There's those standards slipping again.
 
Rich2018 said:
Why will the British government impose tariffs on German built cars ?

Higher prices = less sales so why would Britain or Germany be in favor of that ?
Click to expand...
if you know nothing of WTO rules and how they determine trade between countries that don't have a FTA between them, you might be better off not cluttering up discussions of that matter with your inane "assessments". For one thing you're wasting everybody else's time, for another (although that is YOUR problem entirely) you're making yourself look foolish.

You're just making ill-informed assumptions
Click to expand...
watch out that your mirror doesn't crack one of these days.
 
Chagos said:
if you know nothing of WTO rules and how they determine trade between countries that don't have a FTA between them, you might be better off not cluttering up discussions of that matter with your inane "assessments". For one thing you're wasting everybody else's time, for another (although that is YOUR problem entirely) you're making yourself look foolish.

watch out that your mirror doesn't crack one of these days.
Click to expand...

There are no regulations that determine what tariffs, if any, have to be applied.

You clearly have nothing to contribute to this threat other that abuse.

Why don't you remove yourself from this debate and leave discussions to the adults.
 
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same ‘most favoured nation’ (MFN) market access, to all other WTO members.1 This means that exports to the EU would be subject to the same customs checks, tariffs and regulatory barriers that the UK and EU currently charge on trade with countries such as the US. The UK’s exports to the EU and other WTO members would also be subject to the importing countries’ most favoured nation tariffs.

The imposition of tariffs on trade with the EU would increase costs for both UK importers (and hence consumers) and exporters.
Click to expand...
Factsheet: no deal - the WTO option - UK in a changing EuropeUK in a changing Europe
 
Rich2018 said:
Why will the British government impose tariffs on German built cars ?

Higher prices = less sales so why would Britain or Germany be in favor of that ?
You're just making ill-informed assumptions
Click to expand...

I had to ask a while ago if you were one of those who believed the UK is ruled from Brussels but the above is proof positive you are ill informed on WTO rules and what the UK does or doesn't if we leave without a deal onto WTO rules. You seem to have swallowed all the Brexit lies but you will find Leavers AND Remainers who are far more informed on this thread so don't even bother with the accusation it's just Remainers on this thread.
The tariff aspect has been discussed thoroughly with links previously in this thread so I strongly suggest you do some basic research before you make more of a fool of yourself.

Rich2018 said:
There's those standards slipping again.
Click to expand...

Your contributions are proof positive of low standard of education I'm afraid. At the moment, you seem poorly informed on the subject you are sneering at others about.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
I had to ask a while ago if you were one of those who believed the UK is ruled from Brussels but the above is proof positive you are ill informed on WTO rules and what the UK does or doesn't if we leave without a deal onto WTO rules. You seem to have swallowed all the Brexit lies but you will find Leavers AND Remainers who are far more informed on this thread so don't even bother with the accusation it's just Remainers on this thread.
The tariff aspect has been discussed thoroughly with links previously in this thread so I strongly suggest you do some basic research before you make more of a fool of yourself.
Click to expand...

The UK would be able to negotiate a free trade deal with the EU following Brexit

If you doubt this, tell me where it says this isn't true.
 
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