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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Chagos said:
~ The filthy little liar working as always.
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Sometimes I wish we could just fast-forward to us being at the bottom of the cliff and trying to rebuild. The long drawn out pain will destroy this nation and Johnson / Gove will not be looked on well unless those now independent nations of "England & Wales," "Scotland," and "United Eire" see the progress they need to develop.
 
PeteEU said:
And he then met with the PM of Luxembourg, but "left" before the pre approved and standard press conference and from what is coming from Luxembourg...without informing the Luxembourg government.

Sent from my JSN-L21 using Tapatalk
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Now he's branded "The Incredible Sulk".

To be fair (at least No. 10 is reported as having claimed) there was a request by BoJo's bunch to have the press conference inside. On grounds that nothing either Bettel or BoJo said would have been audible on account of the raunchy crowd outside (mostly Brit expats).

The Luxembourg gubmint denied the request BUT has meanwhile hastened to add that it didn't do so out of ill will but on account of any press conference inside being impossible to set up at such short notice.

Nevertheless, the mindless supporters of the Liar in Office will no doubt jump with glee at yet another opportunity of accusing the EU of humiliating the UK. In heavy denial, of course, of how the humiliation poured upon their country is actually effected by the Buffoon-in-Chief.

Meanwhile Bettel has reiterated what other leaders have been saying all along and Juncker repeated today:

No extension without substantial cause. IOW buffoonish prattle won't count as that.

Frankly, I believe that BoJo just went there on account of playing to his home gallery, same reason he'll go to the EU summit next month.

Record year(s): first Cameron as the worst PM since Blair, then May as the worst PM since Cameron and now BoJo as the worst PM since May.
 
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Infinite Chaos said:
Sometimes I wish we could just fast-forward to us being at the bottom of the cliff and trying to rebuild. The long drawn out pain will destroy this nation and Johnson / Gove will not be looked on well unless those now independent nations of "England & Wales," "Scotland," and "United Eire" see the progress they need to develop.
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I've long since shared into that take of yours.

But "I'm all right, Jack......." and will be, so it's easier for me to talk.

Being an ex-pat not just in body but also (for years) in mind, I'm normally protected from feeling embarrassment, but there are days when that protection wears thin. And the status does not preclude me from feeling sorry for a load of people.
 
Sven Karma said:
And another Tory MP joins the LibDems:

Former Conservative MP Sam Gyimah joins Lib Dems - BBC News
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With all of 'em now running on the ticket of "revoke Art. 50".

Of course a ploy, seeing that they haven't a hope in hell of gaining the majority in any future election. But also a bargaining chip in negotiations with any potential coalition partner.

But I believe their outspoken refusal (no matter how supposedly cunning) to scrap the referendum vote altogether will harm them.
 
I think the hand of Cummings is at work here (BoJo is far too stupid to work the Machiavellian bit himself).

He'll not offer any proposal of substance to the EU, while claiming to the Brit public that he actually did offer that. Then he'll ask for an extension as the law now demands (thus avoiding acting in breach) and the EU will refuse.

End result = desired result.

As in leaving on Oct-31 without a deal and thus "mission accomplished" to the cheers of the demented.

Of course there'll be negotiations on future UK-EU relations after that, but if anyone wants to call this a good starting base, go see somebody about it and do it quickly.
 
Chagos said:
With all of 'em now running on the ticket of "revoke Art. 50".

Of course a ploy, seeing that they haven't a hope in hell of gaining the majority in any future election. But also a bargaining chip in negotiations with any potential coalition partner.

But I believe their outspoken refusal (no matter how supposedly cunning) to scrap the referendum vote altogether will harm them.
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I'm not sure there's anyone with 'a hope in hell of gaining the majority in any future election'.
 
Sven Karma said:
I'm not sure there's anyone with 'a hope in hell of gaining the majority in any future election'.
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That's clearly what the LibDems are counting on, becoming a kingmaker in this flusterc...
 
Jesus, our Boris can't even make a success of a no-show at a press conference:

EEmq6e1XoAA71ch
 
Sven Karma said:
Jesus, our Boris can't even make a success of a no-show at a press conference:

EEmq6e1XoAA71ch
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I listened to his (Mr Bettel's) speech yesterday, and it's the first time that I have heard an EU leader speak with real emotion and anger. He certainly didn't mince his words.

You could visibly see and hear that he was p***ed off with Brexit, which is hardly surprising. I'm sure BoJo's no show at his side clearly lit the fuse for the vehement speech.
 
Sven Karma said:
Jesus, our Boris can't even make a success of a no-show at a press conference:

EEmq6e1XoAA71ch
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Problem is, as it has been for the last 30 years...the Tories blame the EU and the tabloids blame the EU. That means for quite a large portion of the population they will see as an EU snub or insult and not what it actually was...juat because The Sun, The Daily Express and such are telling them that it is the EU's fault because it was a trap. No where does it mention actual facts.

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PeteEU said:
No where does it mention actual facts.

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Very rarely do facts and politics go hand in hand hahaha!
 
LEAVE HQ article on WTO rules.

The WTO Option advocates will tell you that countries such as China, the United States and Australia all trade with the EU without formal trade agreements, and therefore operate under WTO rules. They don't have these problems so why would the UK? The answer, however, is remarkably simple. These countries don't rely solely on WTO rules.

What the WTO Option advocates have done is make a very basic but fatal mistake. They’re so obsessed with tariffs, they haven’t begun to focus on non-tariff barriers. Thus, by and large, they are only looking at trade agreements dealing with tariffs — a sub-set of international agreements which are registered with the WTO. But there are many different types of agreement and many which involve trade, either directly or indirectly, which are not registered with the WTO. These, for our WTO Option advocates, remain under the radar. To them, they are invisible.

~

One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected. Link.
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It's something that isn't addressed properly by many who support Leave with no-deal.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
LEAVE HQ article on WTO rules.



It's something that isn't addressed properly by many who support Leave with no-deal.
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To actually understand the barriers of NTBs or TBTs, all one had to do (as I have done in the past) was to try and sell goods to the Japanese market.

Nigh on impossible, no matter how much one tried to conform to standards that Japan imposed at the time on most imports.

As the article reiterates, tariffs do not prevent goods from entering (anywhere), they just make their import more expensive. But regulations over how goods must meet destination market standards can block entry altogether.
 
Chagos said:
To actually understand the barriers of NTBs or TBTs, all one had to do (as I have done in the past) was to try and sell goods to the Japanese market ~
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The majority of fishermen, plumbers, joiners and other tradespeople who voted Brexit will never trade with anyone outside the UK. I have many friends in that area who just don't understand why bigger businesses are against no-deal. They're not ignorant mindless people, they simply have no experience and can't see why things won't just continue as they are but maybe more sales to Brazil / USA / India etc because they have become indoctrinated into thinking the EU prevents the UK from selling to these countries.

Heck, most people on the shop floor who voted Leave aren't aware of the damage they are doing to their own and their kids prospects for the future.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
The majority of fishermen, plumbers, joiners and other tradespeople who voted Brexit will never trade with anyone outside the UK.
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Where I totally agree on the probably unavoidable myopia that perceived "splendid isolation" brings as a default, the fishermen are likely more aware of the disadvantages that a no-deal will show.

Unless they're totally ignorant of where the next nearest sales markets might be. Considering that 70 pct of the UK's sea food exports go to the EU.
I have many friends in that area who just don't understand why bigger businesses are against no-deal. They're not ignorant mindless people, they simply have no experience and can't see why things won't just continue as they are but maybe more sales to Brazil / USA / India etc because they have become indoctrinated into thinking the EU prevents the UK from selling to these countries.
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Yeah, that's why (to stay with the fish) the UK in 2018 sold more than a quarter to each the US and China of what it sold to France. While (same year) its imports from countries outside the EU amounted to a respectable value of 2.17 billion quid, far more than it exported world-wide.

As regards India, seeing how it finds mention, UK exports (total of every kind of stuff) alone to the German province and state of North-Rhine-Westfalia are currently thrice that which goes to India.

While the constantly mantra-ed ambition of reviving the Commonwealth meets with the greatest amusement and derision in countries like India, Australia and New Zealand.
Heck, most people on the shop floor who voted Leave aren't aware of the damage they are doing to their own and their kids prospects for the future.
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made more sad by the fact that nobody needs a degree in economics to view the actual facts, easily available to whoever cares to look.

But like with some (thankfully far from all) of the cross-pond idiots contaminating this forum with their inanities, who needs facts?
 
Chagos said:
~ the fishermen are likely more aware of the disadvantages that a no-deal will show
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I beg to differ. Most that get interviewed think they will make sales elsewhere easily.

Chagos said:
~ Unless they're totally ignorant of where the next nearest sales markets might be. Considering that 70 pct of the UK's sea food exports go to the EU.
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I fear you overestimate how aware of such basic facts many are. Somehow those 70% are suddenly going to be sold to some unrealised market "somewhere...."
 
Infinite Chaos said:
I beg to differ. Most that get interviewed think they will make sales elsewhere easily.



I fear you overestimate how aware of such basic facts many are. Somehow those 70% are suddenly going to be sold to some unrealised market "somewhere...."
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I believe the two nearest are Russia and West Africa but I'm no expert on global fish trade.

But whatever markets are targeted, one can count on everyone else already being there.
 
As a running commentary:

Well, if this (late) morning in Parliament and what followed in the afternoon is anything to go by, the government obviously feels "un-corrected".

Initial declarations of respect for the Supreme Court followed by expressions of disagreement with its ruling, all the way to accusations of the judiciary having staged a constitutional coup on democracy, clearly mark the path that BoJo is likely to take later today.

Fueled already by Cox (AG) insulting parliament as a whole (own acolytes excepted of course) in calling it a bunch of turkeys and cowards who had no moral right to sit at all.

Only thing of meat that did surface being that No. 10 WILL (according to Cox) ask the EU for an extension if a deal is not reached by Oct-19 (or was it 17?), thus complying with the law that the Benn Act set.

Makes one wonder whether BoJo is either already trying out ditches or whether Cox won't be around much longer. Because he sure as hell isn't the one who decides.
 
And lo and behold:

"The Supreme Court's ruling is wrong"

Straight from the horse's mouth, better said from the ass's mouth.
 
I'm scratching my head a bit. If the Brexit vote is held to be legitimate and binding, but there is no path to an agreement on an exit deal, then is it not logical that a no-deal exit is the obligatory option? Thereafter new arrangements could be negotiated. I really don't see any other path.
 
Jack Hays said:
I'm scratching my head a bit. If the Brexit vote is held to be legitimate and binding, but there is no path to an agreement on an exit deal, then is it not logical that a no-deal exit is the obligatory option?
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IF there is no other path, I'd tend to agree with that logic.

The problem here lies in those interested in a no-deal exit wanting to peddle to parliament the take that there IS no other path, while parliament clearly does not accept this story. Let's in all this forget for a minute token utterings by the Tory "Spartans" that they WILL get a deal, that's simple smoke screening.
Thereafter new arrangements could be negotiated.
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They will be anyway but, other than in a civil divorce, amiable separation here is the prerequisite for equally amiable agreement over future relations. One need see that Brexit here consists of two parts. But if the first part (withdrawal agreement) results in a crash-out, all consequences resulting therefrom will take effect immediately while any subsequent agreements may meanwhile take years to come into effect (if at all).
I really don't see any other path.
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Well, it's complicated.

Mostly by everyone involved trying to play chess while barely mastering checkers.
 
Chagos said:
Where I totally agree on the probably unavoidable myopia that perceived "splendid isolation" brings as a default, the fishermen are likely more aware of the disadvantages that a no-deal will show.

Unless they're totally ignorant of where the next nearest sales markets might be. Considering that 70 pct of the UK's sea food exports go to the EU. Yeah, that's why (to stay with the fish) the UK in 2018 sold more than a quarter to each the US and China of what it sold to France.
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They're not ignorant as this businesswoman shows. She accepts that her vote may put her out of business, that 40+ families that depend on her sales to Spain may suffer but she thinks even with having to spend £40,000+ that she made the right decision.

Tonight's Channel 4 news video. Actual segment on Welsh fishing industry starts around 12:53
 
She is willing to suffer to achieve an end goal (that is important to her). I can understand that, even if her rationale is totally or partially flawed.

Over here we have common Trumpers that are willing to see Trump hurt their job/pocketbook (tariffs), healthcare, environment, their children's well-being (federal deficits), etc. etc.

And they have no end goal other than supporting Trump. This ... I cannot understand.
 
Jack Hays said:
I'm scratching my head a bit. If the Brexit vote is held to be legitimate and binding, but there is no path to an agreement on an exit deal, then is it not logical that a no-deal exit is the obligatory option? Thereafter new arrangements could be negotiated. I really don't see any other path.
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Johnson has a problem with the DUP he is trying to get sorted. He will or he won't, but right now there seems to be some softening or at least breaking of ranks there. He seems to be focusing domestically this week.

He may get a deal, but if he does not, he has certainly churned up enough opposition to everything he proposes to have a political scapegoat for the seemingly inevitable no-deal brexit.
 
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