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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?


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Well, as per usual we have two different theories about what will happen next...

Gordon Brown is reported in the Scottish Herald that the EU will allow the 31st October deadline to be shifted (all dependent on Macron agreeing as the 31st was his compromise against a full year) but equally David Frost - the UK's negotiator has ruled out an extension a report in the Independent.

So we could have the EU offer to agree yet another extension - this one would call Boris' bluff but as this will weaken his support among hard Brexiteers, I don't see him change Govt position as an extension would allow more time for protests and a vote of no-confidence AND a General Election.....

How it is presented will be interesting! :lol:
 
Well, as per usual we have two different theories about what will happen next...

Gordon Brown is reported in the Scottish Herald that the EU will allow the 31st October deadline to be shifted (all dependent on Macron agreeing as the 31st was his compromise against a full year) but equally David Frost - the UK's negotiator has ruled out an extension a report in the Independent.

So we could have the EU offer to agree yet another extension - this one would call Boris' bluff but as this will weaken his support among hard Brexiteers, I don't see him change Govt position as an extension would allow more time for protests and a vote of no-confidence AND a General Election.....

How it is presented will be interesting! :lol:
I have little doubt that the EU would grant yet another extension (Macron or not), but for that to happen it would need to be asked.

But the lemmings are too busy gnawing at the fence that so far keeps them from the cliff edge, to see anything else, let alone the prospect of asking anybody for anything.

Just listening to Reese-Mugshot the other night shows the level of self-intoxication they've arrived at.

Whole thing is really up to all the others and I have no faith in that lot at all either.
 
I have little doubt that the EU would grant yet another extension (Macron or not), but for that to happen it would need to be asked.

But the lemmings are too busy gnawing at the fence that so far keeps them from the cliff edge, to see anything else, let alone the prospect of asking anybody for anything.

Just listening to Reese-Mugshot the other night shows the level of self-intoxication they've arrived at.

Whole thing is really up to all the others and I have no faith in that lot at all either.
Yea Boris would have to ask and only way I see the EU agreeing is either that there is a chance of a deal or they want to undermine Boris and his gang.

Still say that Ireland should join Schengen.. That would change the tune in Borisland.

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I have little doubt that the EU would grant yet another extension (Macron or not) ~

Doesn't there need to be unanimity among Europe's leaders for such a decision? If Macron decides to agree that's one thing but I'm pretty certain he's against further extensions and remember the EU said "use the time well" and we most certainly have not.
 
Doesn't there need to be unanimity among Europe's leaders for such a decision? If Macron decides to agree that's one thing but I'm pretty certain he's against further extensions and remember the EU said "use the time well" and we most certainly have not.

It does.
 
Doesn't there need to be unanimity among Europe's leaders for such a decision?
Yes.
If Macron decides to agree that's one thing but I'm pretty certain he's against further extensions and remember the EU said "use the time well" and we most certainly have not.
It'll really depend on what transpires (will have transpired) by the time an extension is asked for, IF that were to happen at all.

What would need to transpire, IMO, is that Boris either be gone altogether, or have turned away from the adamant no-deal stance (IOW the rabid ERG nuts like Reese-Mugshot and Francois etc. neutralized). That would certainly constitute a significant change to the last time an extension was agreed, when nobody West of the channel could really state any promising outcome. But frankly I don't see the varied opposition getting their act together towards achieving any such "more meat" result either.

In that unlikely case though, one need see that the EU really wants no crash-out, not only because it will make future relations far more difficult as regards any economic angle, but also because it will put its member state Eire where nobody wants it.

The one realization (among many others) that has permeated into the last back bench of European parliaments by now, is that with the Tories in their current state one might as well quit bothering.

Sure, nice words exchanged with Boris both in Berlin and Paris and even Biarritz, but they neither reflect how sick everyone over here is of the whole shebang, nor what little standing Boris has when it comes to trustworthiness. He may lie to his home fans successfully, on the continent he has no fans, let alone anyone who actually believes anything he says.

Finally, Macron holds the ambition of taking chief role in moving Europe forward in light of Merkel retiring in two years time. The UK is, in this respect, by now like a wet blanket on any such effort of the EU. So any UK government may have to contend with objections coming from more people than just Macron and if it's (still) led by Boris, no need to bother at all.
 
Yes. It'll really depend on what transpires (will have transpired) by the time an extension is asked for, IF that were to happen at all.

What would need to transpire, IMO, is that Boris either be gone altogether, or have turned away from the adamant no-deal stance (IOW the rabid ERG nuts like Reese-Mugshot and Francois etc. neutralized). That would certainly constitute a significant change to the last time an extension was agreed, when nobody West of the channel could really state any promising outcome. But frankly I don't see the varied opposition getting their act together towards achieving any such "more meat" result either.

In that unlikely case though, one need see that the EU really wants no crash-out, not only because it will make future relations far more difficult as regards any economic angle, but also because it will put its member state Eire where nobody wants it.

The one realization (among many others) that has permeated into the last back bench of European parliaments by now, is that with the Tories in their current state one might as well quit bothering.

Sure, nice words exchanged with Boris both in Berlin and Paris and even Biarritz, but they neither reflect how sick everyone over here is of the whole shebang, nor what little standing Boris has when it comes to trustworthiness. He may lie to his home fans successfully, on the continent he has no fans, let alone anyone who actually believes anything he says.

Finally, Macron holds the ambition of taking chief role in moving Europe forward in light of Merkel retiring in two years time. The UK is, in this respect, by now like a wet blanket on any such effort of the EU. So any UK government may have to contend with objections coming from more people than just Macron and if it's (still) led by Boris, no need to bother at all.

Your last few paragraphs are exactly why I feel Macron will say "no" this time. Logistically I think there are solutions that can help Eire in the event of a crash out. Not that I feel the UK, Eire and the EU as a whole won't suffer - but they collectively as a club can pull together to regroup.

Logistically - that border will be difficult to police for smuggling but that could be contained by the EU monitoring all goods and people coming from Eire - without putting Eire out of the single market. Equally, Eire could join the Schengen Agreement and who is to say some of that smuggling won't just be people but some goods coming into the UK.
 
Your last few paragraphs are exactly why I feel Macron will say "no" this time. Logistically I think there are solutions that can help Eire in the event of a crash out. Not that I feel the UK, Eire and the EU as a whole won't suffer - but they collectively as a club can pull together to regroup.
Indeed.

Before retiring, I was a trader of actual goods (not just services), IOW buying stuff from all over the world and reselling it to the whole wide world. And like any other in that field was not only aware of the myriad of work-arounds (where tariffs were concerned) but of course used them in the instrumentalization of the passage of goods.

Swaps were a daily routine but can of course be done only with a limited number of commodities.

The issue here will be losing the enormous simplifications that an open border (and thus free trade zone) has supplied so far, irrespective of what tariffs the EU and the UK impose upon each other or decide (in some future deal) to scrap altogether. The latter being, incidentally, a solution I vastly favour for both.

Naw, the issue of control is of course made necessary by potential passage of goods from third countries into the EU via an equally potential Ulster back door. Nothing that can't be addressed by the simple instrument of certificates of origin (as in the past), but cumbersome all on its own already, not to mention that this won't make border checks completely obsolete.

Logistically - that border will be difficult to police for smuggling but that could be contained by the EU monitoring all goods and people coming from Eire - without putting Eire out of the single market. Equally, Eire could join the Schengen Agreement and who is to say some of that smuggling won't just be people but some goods coming into the UK.
What people simply don't understand, often by adamantly refusing to, is that the issue here is (far more than third country products entering the EU via Ulster and thus Eire) the passage of trade between precisely N.Ireland and Eire themselves, respectively. Including,of course, businesses that have established themselves on both sides of the (invisible) Irish border for the simplification of conducting affairs.

As I pointed out, Eire is handling Schengen already as though it were part of it anyway (there's little red tape on both goods and people) so whether it finally joins officially or not is really of secondary importance in this whole mess.

As to putting Eire out of the single market, whichever way this whole ting goes, that won't happen. It's unthinkable both on the side of Eire and that of the EU.

Finally, for the chronically deaf here, the backstop regulation was created at the instigation of the UK under May. It was agreed by both parties on the condition of not being a permanent solution and to be replaced by something that works better. That solely the EU is required to cough up whatever that replacement needs to look like is a by now a popular myth, emanating from the same bunch of habitual liars that appear to be incapable of emanating anything but.
 
~ Before retiring

You just keep throwing that in ya bugger. Just when I forget that I now have another 10-15 yr mortgage to set up and pay off.

~ The issue here will be losing the enormous simplifications that an open border (and thus free trade zone) has supplied so far, irrespective of what tariffs the EU and the UK impose upon each other or decide (in some future deal) to scrap altogether. The latter being, incidentally, a solution I vastly favour for both.

Agreed, the costs will be huge. Ireland is actually the first major trading partner on our list that we actually make a profit from in our dealings. Higher than our trade with China. We do more trade with 4.7 million Irish than we do with 2.77 billion Chinese. Our trade with India is only £3.7 billion.

Makes you think.

~ That solely the EU is required to cough up whatever that replacement needs to look like is a by now a popular myth, emanating from the same bunch of habitual liars that appear to be incapable of emanating anything but.

I can think of several names on this forum and quite a few in Parliament.
 
[h=2]The uncanny prophesy of Margaret Thatcher on the European Union[/h]
Sep 19, 1992 Margaret Thatcher was Speaking to the CNN World Economic Development Conference

The Grocer’s Daughter on Facebook
Huge sums would have to be transferred from richer to poorer countries and regions to allow them to take the strain. Even then unemployment and mass migration across now open frontiers would follow. And a full-fledged Single currency would allow no escape hatch.
The political consequences can already be glimpsed: the growth of extremist parties, battening on fears about mass immigration and unemployment, offering a real — if thoroughly unwelcome — alternative to the Euro-centrist political establishment.

Keep reading →
 
You just keep throwing that in ya bugger. Just when I forget that I now have another 10-15 yr mortgage to set up and pay off.
Well, I'm not responsible for your choices made :2razz:

just kidding :)
Agreed, the costs will be huge. Ireland is actually the first major trading partner on our list that we actually make a profit from in our dealings. Higher than our trade with China. We do more trade with 4.7 million Irish than we do with 2.77 billion Chinese. Our trade with India is only £3.7 billion.

Makes you think.
does indeed, trouble is it doesn't make those think who need to do it most.

Like:
I can think of several names on this forum and quite a few in Parliament.
 
I'm not worried! Our new shiny International Trade Minister will find us food and medicines in no time!

EA8mDh6WsAEYidk


As soon as she finds some files for the folder, and some trousers!
 
You simply couldn't make this up! You have to laugh or collapse sobbing in a dark room!

One of the many "reasons" for Brexit proposed by leavers would be getting the old fashioned blue passports back. The inconvenient fact that WE chose red ones when joining the EU was ignored.

James Melville on Twitter: "The tragic irony of UK blue passports being produced by a Franco-Dutch company and printed in Poland that cannot be guaranteed to be imported into the UK because a no deal Brexit means that no trade agreement will be in place to allow the blue passports to enter the UK.… https://t.co/LnhP0YxbSr"
 
You simply couldn't make this up! You have to laugh or collapse sobbing in a dark room!

One of the many "reasons" for Brexit proposed by leavers would be getting the old fashioned blue passports back. The inconvenient fact that WE chose red ones when joining the EU was ignored.

James Melville on Twitter: "The tragic irony of UK blue passports being produced by a Franco-Dutch company and printed in Poland that cannot be guaranteed to be imported into the UK because a no deal Brexit means that no trade agreement will be in place to allow the blue passports to enter the UK.… https://t.co/LnhP0YxbSr"
I'm actually sobbing with laughter but I've let the light in.:lamo
 
Prime Minister Johnson addressed the nation from a podium outside ten Downing Street this evening, reiterating his intention to leave the EU on October 31st. He sounded like a crap uncertain Theresa May, perhaps unnerved by the large group of protesters being held back by police at the end of the street almost drowning him out with chants of "Stop the Coup!"

It's all going terribly well... Well, terribly anyway!

JOHN NICOLSON on Twitter: "Let’s show Brussels “we are united in our purpose” Johnson says with the background noise of crowds jeering outside Downing Street as he speaks, a mass expulsion of Tory MPs planned, and Scotland preparing to leave the Union."

A glimpse.

SheRa Marley-Threepwood on Twitter: "This didn't sound like a man confident of getting anything "done"

Weak & rattled
#StopTheCoup… "
 
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To my knowledge, there has been no serious attempt by Johnson to engage in negotiations with Brussels.
 
To my knowledge, there has been no serious attempt by Johnson to engage in negotiations with Brussels.
In fact that claim, enhanced by Johnson's prevarication today of negotiations going smoothly and holding promise for a good outcome, has been refuted by a Brussels spokesperson today.

The line was "talking", interpreted by those in the know as talking about talking about talking.

He's just kicking the can down the road, knowing full well that he has nothing to propose, meanwhile lying to the public as usual.
 
In fact that claim, enhanced by Johnson's prevarication today of negotiations going smoothly and holding promise for a good outcome, has been refuted by a Brussels spokesperson today.

The line was "talking", interpreted by those in the know as talking about talking about talking.

He's just kicking the can down the road, knowing full well that he has nothing to propose, meanwhile lying to the public as usual.

He's setting up who will be to blame for his failure. He has offered no alternative, let alone a workable one, to the backstop.
 
He's setting up who will be to blame for his failure. He has offered no alternative, let alone a workable one, to the backstop.

One irony of the backstop is that older voters, who lived through the Troubles, tended to favor Brexit. The ones who did forgot the very history they lived through! :doh
 
In fact that claim, enhanced by Johnson's prevarication today of negotiations going smoothly and holding promise for a good outcome, has been refuted by a Brussels spokesperson today.

The line was "talking", interpreted by those in the know as talking about talking about talking.

He's just kicking the can down the road, knowing full well that he has nothing to propose, meanwhile lying to the public as usual.

I agree. 'Wagging one's tongue' and 'seriously negotiating' are two very different animals. He's setting the table for scapegoating the EU come October 31.
 
I agree. 'Wagging one's tongue' and 'seriously negotiating' are two very different animals. He's setting the table for scapegoating the EU come October 31.

Just running out the clock so no-deal Brexit automatically goes into effect on 31 October.
 
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