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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?


  • Total voters
    114
I'm not talking about you and Sven, but there are others such as Chagos who is a one trick pony specialising in shooting the messenger not the message. I've seen the odd constructive post, but mostly it's a barrage of nonsense about 'Kremlin propaganda'. We don't know the reasons why people come and go - I doubt it's because they've been defeated by Remain arguments. In fact, often there are no Remain arguments made. I suspect that's because Remainers honestly think Brexit is self evidently such a stupid idea that there is no need to make the case against it.

The truth is more that neither Leavers nor Remainers do much listening to each other. There is very obvious contempt for the other, and a gulf so large that it's un-bridgeable (at least on the extremes). I suspect however that the UK will leave the EU but maintain close links. As you know, I've always felt that May's deal will pass parliament at the last minute provided the EU can fashion something on the backstop for May to take home. If they won't give her anything at all - then that would be a mistake.

The argument for Remaining is pretty clear: free access to the single market. There are other things too such as a huge rebate and outputs from things we don't like such as Schengen and the Euro. If you want the best reason for staying - look at the supposed golden age before the UK joined the EEC in 1973 and look at our GDP in comparison with European nations like Germany, Italy and France. As soon as we joined, our GDP and wealth began to rise - that is documented fact.

Sovereignty was never given up, we pooled sovereignty where necessary.

It's a rebellion against gaping inequality, against cosmopolitan wealth and small town decay. It was a vote that empowered and energised those who have done badly out of globalism - the white working class who have been subject to years of being called racists, who have no prospects thanks to endless supplies of cheap labor, whose towns have changed without their consent. For many Leavers, the feeling of being ignored, forgotten, fed scraps was lifted. Brexit brought hope when before there was none. Leavers want change, and often on the basis that nothing can be worse than the destruction and hopelessness of the status quo.

Most of those reasons for leaving are down to national policy, not EU policy. Cheap labour - jobs in farming, industry and other areas have been left to EU migrants because many didn't want those jobs. They were better paid staying on unemployment benefit than going to the farm to pick fruit and vegetables. If locals were willing to do more of that work - why would employers hire from Europe?
It can be argued that cheap foreign labour suppressed wages but that is down to local not EU policy.

~ Indeed, i know more Remainers who accept that the UK must now leave and just want to get on with it.

Many like me are curious to see who the Brexiteers will have to blame once we are out of the EU. Believe me, someone else is always going to be at fault - no responsibility will be taken.
 
The argument for Remaining is pretty clear: free access to the single market. There are other things too such as a huge rebate and outputs from things we don't like such as Schengen and the Euro. If you want the best reason for staying - look at the supposed golden age before the UK joined the EEC in 1973 and look at our GDP in comparison with European nations like Germany, Italy and France. As soon as we joined, our GDP and wealth began to rise - that is documented fact.

Sovereignty was never given up, we pooled sovereignty where necessary.



Most of those reasons for leaving are down to national policy, not EU policy. Cheap labour - jobs in farming, industry and other areas have been left to EU migrants because many didn't want those jobs. They were better paid staying on unemployment benefit than going to the farm to pick fruit and vegetables. If locals were willing to do more of that work - why would employers hire from Europe?
It can be argued that cheap foreign labour suppressed wages but that is down to local not EU policy.



Many like me are curious to see who the Brexiteers will have to blame once we are out of the EU. Believe me, someone else is always going to be at fault - no responsibility will be taken.

Yes, I understand the access to the single market. Remain always seems obsessed with money, money, money ......... although a system which distributes money in a singularly inequitable manner.

But the single market has caused huge problems:

1. Depressed wages for the poorest and least skilled

2. Unwanted social change to towns caused by mass migration

3. Strain on creaking infrastructure - school class sizes, children fro whom English is not a first language, excess demand for housing causing booms in rental and house prices.


All of these problems impact the working class the most, whilst the middle class in their leafy suburbs are happily insulated from such problems whilst they make a nice living from the status quo.

Your dismissal of the EU as a cause of these problems completely ignores the mass migration from EU states over which the UK has no control inside the EU. I accept that the problems outlined are not all the EU's fault (benefits policy, non EU migration etc), and UK gov has happily presided over globalist corporate gluttony, but the referendum was a cry against the political elite and their total un-willingness to listen or change.

The vocal Remain leaders are the least willing to listen or change. I wonder whether if Remain, post referendum, had been led by people who could credibly demonstrate a commitment to adopt very different policies, whether they might have persuaded very many more people to their cause? Sadly they haven't made the points you make. They've focused on more fear-mongering, and not once talked about remaining but doing things differently - controlling immigration properly to protect the character of the UK's towns, training the least skilled UK workers, cutting benefits for the lazy but capable, directing regional aid policy towards the de-industrialised towns of England and Wales, cracking down on corporate tax evasion, and re-distributing wealth in a more fair manner.

I ask you - why have Remainers spent so much time on Project Fear and insulting the intelligence of Leavers, and so little time on finding a way of addressing their concerns in a way which might have actually convinced Leavers? I suspect it's because Remain extremists really do despise the white working class, and are far more comfortable spending time in France and Spain than bothering with the concerns of what they regard as losers in cold northern towns full of 'thick racists'.
 
Is this the end of political parties?


A traditional pillar of Western democracies is undergoing radical change.






George Washington thought they were “potent engines” easily abused by “cunning, ambitious and unprincipled men.” The English poet Alexander Pope thought they manipulated “the madness of the many, for the gain of a few.” Neither man was unusual: Plenty of political thinkers in the 18th century — the era that gave birth to modern democracy in both America and Britain — had poor opinions of political parties. So why do we remain so attached to them today?
That’s the question that has to be asked in the wake of the formation, on Feb. 18 , of a British political party that isn’t really a party at all. The brand-new Independent Group contains eight members of Parliament who have just resigned from the Labour Party, and three who have just resigned from the Conservative Party. Already, in one poll, the 11 members of the Independent Group have the support of 14 percent of the population.
Incorrectly, their decision has been described abroad as prompted by Brexit. That’s only a part of the story, for the country’s two largest political parties have also become radicalized in other ways. Both the Labour leadership and its grass-roots activists are now dominated by a Marxist far left that is vitriolic, secretive about its plans and prone to conspiracy theories, including anti-Semitic ones. One of the ex-Labour MPs has described the party as “sickeningly institutionally racist.” The once-pragmatic Tory party has meanwhile lost its old ideological compass and is in thrall to a far-right minority and a leader whose main interest is not the good of the country but the unity of the party. As one of the now ex-Tories put it, “The right-wing, hard-line, anti-[European Union] squad are now running the Conservative Party.” As if to reaffirm those claims, partisans from both political extremes launched a tidal wave of vile insults and hateful attacks at all the new members of the Independent Group within minutes of their announced resignations. . . .
 
An author so consistent that she can be wrong on everything.


Last time i checked the Tory party was led by a former Remainer who has appointed a virtual split of Brexiter and former Remain ministers. Hard right radicalsim and Theresa May do not go hand in hand, and the previous Cameron led government was far more radical in implementing austerity and neo-con style economics.

The so called Independent Group are united only in their opposition to Brexit, devotion to another referendum, and a refusal to put their renunciation of the manifestos upon which they were elected to the judgement of their own constituents via a by-election.

But why let facts get in the way?
 
I'm not talking about you and Sven, but there are others such as Chagos who is a one trick pony specialising in shooting the messenger not the message. I've seen the odd constructive post, but mostly it's a barrage of nonsense about 'Kremlin propaganda'.
Well, since you bring it up, I've made more factual posts on why Leave is a bad idea than you've made on why Remain is.

Which, considering that you're totally devoid of factual arguments for your position, isn't really a big deal either.

As to your Kremlin propaganda, that's by now well documented on here, all of it thanks to your own conduct.
We don't know the reasons why people come and go - I doubt it's because they've been defeated by Remain arguments. In fact, often there are no Remain arguments made.
There have been plenty of arguments for Remain, your agenda simply precludes you from acknowledging them.
I suspect that's because Remainers honestly think Brexit is self evidently such a stupid idea that there is no need to make the case against it.
For once you speak wisely.

The truth is more that neither Leavers nor Remainers do much listening to each other. There is very obvious contempt for the other, and a gulf so large that it's un-bridgeable (at least on the extremes). I suspect however that the UK will leave the EU but maintain close links. As you know, I've always felt that May's deal will pass parliament at the last minute provided the EU can fashion something on the backstop for May to take home. If they won't give her anything at all - then that would be a mistake.
Maybe, instead of spouting your usual nonsense over the dastardly EU, you could for once posit something constructive. Like what that "fashioning to take home" might consist of without leaving Ireland in the rain? Both North and South, BTW.

Even so, Brexit strikes at the heart of the current globalist system. It's a rebellion against gaping inequality, against cosmopolitan wealth and small town decay. It was a vote that empowered and energised those who have done badly out of globalism - the white working class who have been subject to years of being called racists, who have no prospects thanks to endless supplies of cheap labor, whose towns have changed without their consent. For many Leavers, the feeling of being ignored, forgotten, fed scraps was lifted. Brexit brought hope when before there was none. Leavers want change, and often on the basis that nothing can be worse than the destruction and hopelessness of the status quo.
If you weren't so atrociously badly informed on British affairs, your attempt at "analysis" would be less poor. Like in you overlooking that the ills you outline could have found address by those that began to cause them almost 50 years ago.

Hint: Downing St. NO. 10

Successive governments of any colour.
 
Yes, I understand the access to the single market. Remain always seems obsessed with money, money, money .........
It is quite understandable that, when hailing from a country that is pretty much devoid of economic success, one tends to sneer at it.
although a system which distributes money in a singularly inequitable manner.
as mentioned previously, take that gripe to the proper address.
But the single market has caused huge problems:

1. Depressed wages for the poorest and least skilled

2. Unwanted social change to towns caused by mass migration

3. Strain on creaking infrastructure - school class sizes, children fro whom English is not a first language, excess demand for housing causing booms in rental and house prices.
as mentioned previously, take that gripe to the proper address.

All of these problems impact the working class the most, whilst the middle class in their leafy suburbs are happily insulated from such problems whilst they make a nice living from the status quo.
as mentioned previously, take that gripe to the proper address.

Your dismissal of the EU as a cause of these problems completely ignores the mass migration from EU states over which the UK has no control inside the EU. I accept that the problems outlined are not all the EU's fault (benefits policy, non EU migration etc), and UK gov has happily presided over globalist corporate gluttony, but the referendum was a cry against the political elite and their total un-willingness to listen or change.
So how do you reconcile this criticism with your praise for the likes of Rees-Mogg and cronies?
The vocal Remain leaders are the least willing to listen or change. I wonder whether if Remain, post referendum, had been led by people who could credibly demonstrate a commitment to adopt very different policies, whether they might have persuaded very many more people to their cause? Sadly they haven't made the points you make. They've focused on more fear-mongering, and not once talked about remaining but doing things differently - controlling immigration properly to protect the character of the UK's towns, training the least skilled UK workers, cutting benefits for the lazy but capable, directing regional aid policy towards the de-industrialised towns of England and Wales, cracking down on corporate tax evasion, and re-distributing wealth in a more fair manner.

I ask you - why have Remainers spent so much time on Project Fear and insulting the intelligence of Leavers, and so little time on finding a way of addressing their concerns in a way which might have actually convinced Leavers? I suspect it's because Remain extremists really do despise the white working class, and are far more comfortable spending time in France and Spain than bothering with the concerns of what they regard as losers in cold northern towns full of 'thick racists'.
Where there's much truth in all of that, it is also (as usual) flawed by your tendency of going all over the place in non-differentiating rants that conflate non-related issues.

Just as one example of this, your perception of working-class-despising moneyed gentry comprising the bulk of Spanish "residentes" couldn't be more off. Most of those living down here ARE working class.

Maybe your analogy could be found more salient wrt France but you also need to realize that France isn't just the Côte d'Azur. IOW loads of working class Brits live in "cheaper" areas of France as well.
 
An author so consistent that she can be wrong on everything.


Last time i checked the Tory party was led by a former Remainer who has appointed a virtual split of Brexiter and former Remain ministers. Hard right radicalsim and Theresa May do not go hand in hand, and the previous Cameron led government was far more radical in implementing austerity and neo-con style economics.
If you'd checked anything at all you'd have found that May was part of that very same Cameron government and, as Home Secretary, was very much instrumental in imposing the very same austerity measures the country still groans under.

The so called Independent Group are united only in their opposition to Brexit, devotion to another referendum, and a refusal to put their renunciation of the manifestos upon which they were elected to the judgement of their own constituents via a by-election.
What they are opposed to is the handling of the "go-out".

But why let facts get in the way?
You were looking in the mirror when writing that, right?
 
If you'd checked anything at all you'd have found that May was part of that very same Cameron government and, as Home Secretary, was very much instrumental in imposing the very same austerity measures the country still groans under.

What they are opposed to is the handling of the "go-out".

You were looking in the mirror when writing that, right?

He's unidirectional and pathetic simultaneously.
 
Yes, I understand the access to the single market. Remain always seems obsessed with money, money, money ......... although a system which distributes money in a singularly inequitable manner.

But the single market has caused huge problems:

1. Depressed wages for the poorest and least skilled

2. Unwanted social change to towns caused by mass migration

3. Strain on creaking infrastructure - school class sizes, children fro whom English is not a first language, excess demand for housing causing booms in rental and house prices.

All of these problems impact the working class the most, whilst the middle class in their leafy suburbs are happily insulated from such problems whilst they make a nice living from the status quo.

How has the single market caused these problems? Numbers 1, 2 and 3 are all down to local national policy.

Your dismissal of the EU as a cause of these problems completely ignores the mass migration from EU states over which the UK has no control inside the EU ~

National policy again. Rules exist to limit whether people can simply move and stay in a country but the UK govt (of all sides) never applied them. As an EU migrant you can be kicked out after 3 months if you cannot prove that you are not a drain on the local economy. That is down to the local national Govt to enforce and we never did - most EU migrants came because of jobs AND they competed with locals in many areas where locals would not do the job.

Your guess is as good as mine whether fruit pickers / labourers and hotel service staff will start coming from local UK youth but that is what has to happen if we block EU migrants under Brexit.
 
How has the single market caused these problems? Numbers 1, 2 and 3 are all down to local national policy.



National policy again. Rules exist to limit whether people can simply move and stay in a country but the UK govt (of all sides) never applied them. As an EU migrant you can be kicked out after 3 months if you cannot prove that you are not a drain on the local economy. That is down to the local national Govt to enforce and we never did - most EU migrants came because of jobs AND they competed with locals in many areas where locals would not do the job.

Your guess is as good as mine whether fruit pickers / labourers and hotel service staff will start coming from local UK youth but that is what has to happen if we block EU migrants under Brexit.


All i see here is total denialism. The EU is apparently not responsible for anything negative :shock:.


As you know very well, the UK was a magnet to unskilled workers from eastern EU states. Why? Because of the huge disparities between minimum wages across the EU (the UK being relatively more than double that in many such EU states), and because English is a fairly common second language.

Now, you're obviously not very good at supply and demand (or probably in wilful denial), but unlimited supply of cheap and willing labor means that there is no upward pressure on the minimum wage ....... ever! Even worse, it encourages employers not to invest in capital and the up-skilling of indigenous labor - much easier to hire tens of thousands of Poles, Romanians, Bulgarians etc.

Constantly denying that the EU has any negative impacts is first class self delusion. I won't even start on the negative impacts that stem from a democratic perspective on having so many directives and laws made in a foreign state by unelected aparatchiks. The pernicious effect on democracy of UK politicians blaming Brussles for everything (sometimes justifiably) has probably fatally undermined trust in the UK elite.
 
All i see here is total denialism..................~
That's basically the essence of anything you post on the subject.

Never addressing a single point made by anything other than you being of a different opinion that you substantiate with zilch.

That's why an increasing number won't enter into any debate with you, simply because you're not deemed worthy.
 
That's basically the essence of anything you post on the subject.

Never addressing a single point made by anything other than you being of a different opinion that you substantiate with zilch.

That's why an increasing number won't enter into any debate with you, simply because you're not deemed worthy.

:lamo

In the world of pompous arrogance, you are the champ :)
 
All i see here is total denialism. The EU is apparently not responsible for anything negative ~

I'll humour you. I have explained that wages are national policy, I have explained that I believe that social change is down to national policy as is infrastructure such as funds for schools (and thus class sizes) a requirement to speak local language as well as building policy.

If you want me to go further I am happy to but you make a simplistic response so I have to ask you (as the one who made the original claim about the following

1. "Depressed wages for the poorest and least skilled"

2. "Unwanted social change to towns caused by mass migration"

3. "Strain on creaking infrastructure - school class sizes, children fro whom English is not a first language, excess demand for housing causing booms in rental and house prices."

You are going to have to explain or provide proof of how the EU is responsible for national wage policy / social change and things like class size / national language etc etc.
 
~.........................You are going to have to explain or provide proof of how the EU is responsible for national wage policy / social change and things like class size / national language etc etc.
expect the habitual gish gallop.
 
I'll humour you. I have explained that wages are national policy, I have explained that I believe that social change is down to national policy as is infrastructure such as funds for schools (and thus class sizes) a requirement to speak local language as well as building policy.

If you want me to go further I am happy to but you make a simplistic response so I have to ask you (as the one who made the original claim about the following

1. "Depressed wages for the poorest and least skilled"

2. "Unwanted social change to towns caused by mass migration"

3. "Strain on creaking infrastructure - school class sizes, children fro whom English is not a first language, excess demand for housing causing booms in rental and house prices."

You are going to have to explain or provide proof of how the EU is responsible for national wage policy / social change and things like class size / national language etc etc.


Why are you talking about national wage policy like some Stalinist whilst wilfully ignoring the impact of the EU's much vaunted freedom of movement?


As even my cat knows, wages are largely determined through the operation of market forces (excepting minimum wage policy) and the EU operates freedom of movement in the labor market.

The unlimited supply of cheap labor from the EU acts upon the market by saturating the labor supply side at the bottom end as EU workers take advantage of the UK's much higher minimum wage than in their own states. Now guess what - this saturation of cheap labor has three effects:

1. It affords employers the ability to hire and fire without risk.

2. It means there is no upward pressure on wages at the bottom end.

3. It dis-incentivises employers from investing in either training or mechanisation.


Now maybe i need to point out that EU migrants working in the UK also need somewhere to live, to send their children to school, and to consume infrastructure services. This is where the social change comes into play. And as you know, the UK can't stop EU free movement, and neither can it tell EU migrants where to go or not go.

Denial and refusal to acknowledge facts might convince some ignorant Americans looking in, but anyone with any understanding knows that freedom of movement around the EU labor market is held out by Brussels as one of their shining achievements. But it has costs, and those are largely suffered by the poorest members of indigenous populations.
 
Why are you talking about national wage policy like some Stalinist whilst wilfully ignoring the impact of the EU's much vaunted freedom of movement?


As even my cat knows, wages are largely determined through the operation of market forces (excepting minimum wage policy) and the EU operates freedom of movement in the labor market.

The unlimited supply of cheap labor from the EU acts upon the market by saturating the labor supply side at the bottom end as EU workers take advantage of the UK's much higher minimum wage than in their own states. Now guess what - this saturation of cheap labor has three effects:

1. It affords employers the ability to hire and fire without risk.

2. It means there is no upward pressure on wages at the bottom end.

3. It dis-incentivises employers from investing in either training or mechanisation.


Now maybe i need to point out that EU migrants working in the UK also need somewhere to live, to send their children to school, and to consume infrastructure services. This is where the social change comes into play. And as you know, the UK can't stop EU free movement, and neither can it tell EU migrants where to go or not go.

Denial and refusal to acknowledge facts might convince some ignorant Americans looking in, but anyone with any understanding knows that freedom of movement around the EU labor market is held out by Brussels as one of their shining achievements. But it has costs, and those are largely suffered by the poorest members of indigenous populations.

Your cat I'm afraid knows as much if not more than you. Now, would you like to try again?

Fact Check: does immigration have an impact on wages or employment?

Your chance to prove your critics wrong.
 
Your cat I'm afraid knows as much if not more than you. Now, would you like to try again?

Fact Check: does immigration have an impact on wages or employment?

Your chance to prove your critics wrong.


Is that the best you can do ......... Vince Cable? :lol:


Try this proper study which does clearly find detrimetnal impacts on the lowest paid and least well educated :

The Labour Market Effects of Immigration - Migration Observatory - The Migration Observatory
 
Is that the best you can do ......... Vince Cable? :lol:

You think Cable wrote a Govt report? You think Cable wrote all the reports that the Fact Check independent organisation used? Did you or your cat actually read the report or just see his name?


Try this proper study which does clearly find detrimetnal impacts on the lowest paid and least well educated :

The Labour Market Effects of Immigration - Migration Observatory - The Migration Observatory

Yup, neither you nor your cat read your own report properly. Biggest impact on wages is on migrant workers. Minimal impact on most other workers. Your argument fails.

Finally, research suggests that any adverse wage effects of immigration are likely to be greatest for resident workers who are themselves migrants. This is because the skills of new migrants are likely to be closer substitutes for the skills of migrants already employed in the UK than for those of UK-born workers. Manacorda, Manning and Wadsworth (2012) analyse data from 1975-2005 and conclude that the main impact of increased immigration is on the wages of migrants already in the UK. Link.

Now, instead of further back and forth on THIS - I take you back to the question - "Please explain or provide proof of how the EU is responsible for national wage policy / social change and things like class size / national language etc etc."
 
You think Cable wrote a Govt report? You think Cable wrote all the reports that the Fact Check independent organisation used? Did you or your cat actually read the report or just see his name?




Yup, neither you nor your cat read your own report properly. Biggest impact on wages is on migrant workers. Minimal impact on most other workers. Your argument fails.



Now, instead of further back and forth on THIS - I take you back to the question - "Please explain or provide proof of how the EU is responsible for national wage policy / social change and things like class size / national language etc etc."


Like the Stalinist you appear to be, you have grossly mis-represented the report linked.


You also appear to be unable to comprehend what the EU's fee movement of labor means, how labor markets work, and unable to recoginse that EU migrant workers need somewhere to live, somewhere to send their children to school etc.


I won't be bothered with you until you become reasonable and realistic. Currently, and sadly, you're just like the rest of the intolerant Remain extremists.
 
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