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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Collapse of Brexit is happening.... Brexit minister Davis has resigned and I suspect that Boris is next to go. Civil war in the Tory party is full on again and can lead to new elections.

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Boris gone. The collapse continues.
 
gunner said:
Boris gone. The collapse continues.
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You think he's resigned because he disagrees with policy, or because he thinks he can launch a leadership bid if May is weakened even further by being unable to get her party to agree the Checkers compromise? Between May, Davis and Johnson it's quite difficult to decide which is the most incompetent politician. On the unprincipled stakes, Boris has it hands down.
 
HAHAHAH the one person with almost as many scandals and issues as Boris.... Jeremy Hunt is the new foreign minister.. HAHAHAHAH
 
Andalublue said:
You think he's resigned because he disagrees with policy, or because he thinks he can launch a leadership bid if May is weakened even further by being unable to get her party to agree the Checkers compromise? Between May, Davis and Johnson it's quite difficult to decide which is the most incompetent politician. On the unprincipled stakes, Boris has it hands down.
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Boris is a weasel.. so he is jumping ship to prepare for a political comeback when May falls.
 
PeteEU said:
Boris is a weasel.. so he is jumping ship to prepare for a political comeback when May falls.
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William Rea said a while ago that the Labour Party should stand back and allow the Conservatives to implode over Brexit, well that is happening and a leadership election takes 3 months. 3 months is a luxury we don't have right now with the exit date fast approaching.

Tonight, T May has been meeting with Labour reps ahead of any votes as I guess a motion of no confidence will come through soon.

So, which way would Labour see this? A chance to reverse Brexit? A chance to take over in power now or wait for the mess to get even worse and then bring the Conservatives down?

Brexit has begun the death of the modern (One nation) Conservative Party. :doh
 
Andalublue said:
You think he's resigned because he disagrees with policy, or because he thinks he can launch a leadership bid if May is weakened even further by being unable to get her party to agree the Checkers compromise? Between May, Davis and Johnson it's quite difficult to decide which is the most incompetent politician. On the unprincipled stakes, Boris has it hands down.
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At this point, I'm not sure. Already, civil servants are rumbling about his inability to follow through with anything. Good riddance by the sounds of it. I'm not convinced he's recovered sufficiently from his last attempt, and does he have enough support? Again, I'm not convinced. I'm full on with social media at the moment, bashing this totally shambolic and embarrassment of a government. But I still can't reconcile with Corbyn....
 
gunner said:
At this point, I'm not sure. Already, civil servants are rumbling about his inability to follow through with anything. Good riddance by the sounds of it. I'm not convinced he's recovered sufficiently from his last attempt, and does he have enough support? Again, I'm not convinced. I'm full on with social media at the moment, bashing this totally shambolic and embarrassment of a government. But I still can't reconcile with Corbyn....
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On Boris, I don't think he has much chance of winning the leadership. He seems to be very unpopular with Tory MPs and his cabinet ex-colleagues. He's been totally rumbled as the incompetent ego-maniac he is.

On Corbyn, I'm not impressed with his leadership on the Brexit catastrophe. I think the strategy he's taking is to keep his powder dry while the Tories dig their own electoral grave. I don't agree with those who claim Labour's Brexit position is unclear. Their position is to pursue the softest Brexit possible, which is why the leadership is still at odds with the many MPs who want to reverse the referendum result. It's a party divided, but not in the same way as the Tory party whose vocal minority want the wrecking-ball, no-deal Brexit option to be pursued.I think a big majority of voters would find that position unacceptable. If the Tories were so stupid as to replace May with a hard Brexiteer the country would be heading for economic meltdown and Corbyn would be heading for No.10.
 
Andalublue said:
~ If the Tories were so stupid as to replace May with a hard Brexiteer the country would be heading for economic meltdown and Corbyn would be heading for No.10.
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If the Conservatives dumped May, it would take 3 months under party rules for a new leader to be elected. She would stay in holding position as a lame duck and we would be guaranteed a hard Brexit.

That may be a palatable option to the hard Brexiteers.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
If the Conservatives dumped May, it would take 3 months under party rules for a new leader to be elected. She would stay in holding position as a lame duck and we would be guaranteed a hard Brexit.

That may be a palatable option to the hard Brexiteers.
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Don't you think that the slim majority would poof and a vote of no confidence would mean new elections? After all it does not take much for the government to lose its majority.....1 MP is all it takes, as her majority is 326.

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PeteEU said:
Don't you think that the slim majority would poof and a vote of no confidence would mean new elections? After all it does not take much for the government to lose its majority.....1 MP is all it takes, as her majority is 326.

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We already have "Minority Government" so she would stumble on especially if Corbyn has his wits about him and refuses to take power until after Brexit actually happens. The convention is that if you lose a no confidence vote, you step down - we could have a caretake MP but we would be in absolute limbo, guaranteed a hard exit as there would be nobody with any power or authority to take things forward.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
nd we would be guaranteed a hard Brexit.

That may be a palatable option to the hard Brexiteers.
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Oh, I think they'd love it. A hard Brexit, a lame-duck PM still there to take the blame and one of those toads lurking in the background hoping to pounce when May gets thrown to the rioting hordes. The hardest and most rancid then becomes PM (in their dreams) and brings in the proto-fascist state they hanker after, something along the lines of Poland, Hungary or Turkey, and a police-state LE environment like the US or Russia. Lovely vision, eh?
 
Andalublue said:
Oh, I think they'd love it. A hard Brexit, a lame-duck PM still there to take the blame and one of those toads lurking in the background hoping to pounce when May gets thrown to the rioting hordes. The hardest and most rancid then becomes PM (in their dreams) and brings in the proto-fascist state they hanker after, something along the lines of Poland, Hungary or Turkey, and a police-state LE environment like the US or Russia. Lovely vision, eh?
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Johnson is in it for himself, he assessed the situation with two speeches (pro and anti) and then worked out his best chance for power lay with Brexit. I don't think he truly believes in Brexit, certainly not as much as his ambition to become PM.

You know my politics and that I'm no fan of Corbyn but Labour presently may eventually be the best chance this country gets but I really think the referendum debate has split the country in ways nothing else has ever done.

The damage to national unity is palpable.
 
Beyond all of which, the insular self-complacency is cringe worthy in that cognitive dissonance is brought to new heights (again) by the idea of a white paper now having passed the Tory criteria also amounts to having found acceptance in Brussels already.


That the future of UK-EU relationships is decided solely by the "island back biting" has many a continental head shaking to the point of cervical dislodging.
 
Well, negotiating with a rabid bulldog with multiple personality disorder must be quite hard work for the EU team.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
You know my politics and that I'm no fan of Corbyn but Labour presently may eventually be the best chance this country gets but I really think the referendum debate has split the country in ways nothing else has ever done.

The damage to national unity is palpable.
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Yup. And a WC semi-final won't put an end to that. I was listening to 5Live's phone-in this morning and the rabid right were out in force, saying stuff that they would have been ashamed and too cowed to say just a couple of years ago. I think it's actually really quite scary.
 
Andalublue said:
Yup. And a WC semi-final won't put an end to that. I was listening to 5Live's phone-in this morning and the rabid right were out in force, saying stuff that they would have been ashamed and too cowed to say just a couple of years ago. I think it's actually really quite scary.
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I concur. The genie is out of the bottle. The filter is definitely off, identity politics has switched sides, if you like. More and more are fully comfortable with going straight to the colour of a person's skin, as the reason why country is in the state it is. The UK is polarised and I'm not sure how we're going to come back from it.
 
Ey-up.. Nigel Farage is to hit the road in a battlebus as part of the leave means leave campaign.

I can't see a referendum or final vote by the people on whatever the deal is - there's just not the time for the parliamentary process to take effect. I can't see the EU agreeing a compromise (I never have) but I do see a no-deal happening and WTO trading terms.

You wonder what the two year process has cost us in resignations, credibility, man-hours and money though when this end was always highly likely.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Ey-up.. Nigel Farage is to hit the road in a battlebus as part of the leave means leave campaign.

I can't see a referendum or final vote by the people on whatever the deal is - there's just not the time for the parliamentary process to take effect. I can't see the EU agreeing a compromise (I never have) but I do see a no-deal happening and WTO trading terms.
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Which would have raised the question of "what sort of compromise" if one had actually been able to reach such a point of talking shop. But with one party of any conceivable bilateral negotiations arguing and back-biting just at home, what does one talk about?

And what does one talk about with a supposed leader who continuously tries to circumvent the EU itself by going to its individual heads of state in some naive attempt of trying to drive wedges between the member states? Clearly understanding how the EU works as little as many Brits do?
You wonder what the two year process has cost us in resignations, credibility, man-hours and money though when this end was always highly likely.
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Exasperation has reached a point with me when I can hardly wait for March.

Sentiment being by now split between "get the hell out so others get on with their work" and "let us get the hell out so we can get on with our work".

Not a good time on the continent to go proclaiming "I'm a Brit and proud of it". "Embarrassed" would be more like it.
 
infinite chaos said:
well, this is the week it all starts for real. Things are likely to start slowly but will heat up pretty quickly - probably not before (as stated on breakfast tv this morning) the german elections.

I'll post and add to this thread (hopefully there'll be lots of relevant contributions over time) as we progress. How will "brexit" go - i suppose that depends on whether you voted remain or leave.

What are your hopes for the process and outcome? (the basic outcome is "we're out" but will it be a disaster or will we be able to make it a success?
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brexit is a failure...full stop
 
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