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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Red_Dave said:
Who is saying deals have to be disadvantageous to one side or the other? There are plenty of deals we could make that would benefit both sides that we are presently not allowed to do. For example there is currently no tariff on coffee beans imported to the EU but there is on roasted coffee beans. Removing this tariff would be great for producers in the third world and would mean that we got cheaper coffee.
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You should rethink that one... coffee beans are sold by farmers, who over the last few decades have formed their own organisations to sell beans to big companies (not enough by any means but it is a start) Roasted coffee beans are sold by big corporations, often not EU owned or operated.

Likewise Tunisia is trying to grow its olive oil industry. It was allowed to import olive oil tariff free after the revolution but Spanish and Italian producers are pushing against this. If they succeed the result will be higher prices in Europe and more obstacles for producers in the third world. This is about the rich screwing over the poor not one country screwing over another.
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Of course the Spanish and Italian olive oil industry would push against it. Tunisia is their main competition... The EU makes most of the olive oil in the world by far, but Tunisia and Turkey are fighting for the 2nd spot. Why on earth should the Spanish and Italians allow cheaper oil from their main competitors in without a fight? And it is not like Tunisia is hurting that much.. they are expected to produce 100% more this year, than last, and produce the 3rd or 4th most in the last 40 years. And it is not the fault of the EU, that the political situation and corruption in Tunisia is a big reason for their troubles.. FYI.. in 2014-15, Tunisia exported 304 tons.. the EU 508. So.. not exactly hurting there are they? Sure exports have fallen, but with olive oil the weather has a huge impact, as well as the political situation.

I am all for cheaper goods, but when it comes to food stuffs there is a limit. We can not outsource our food production to the 3rd world and we must be as much self sustaining as possible. Else we will come into the situation like the UK is, where suddenly because of a political brain fart, the real possibility of lack of foodstuffs is growing, as the national food security was based on being a member of the EU. The UK does not produce enough food to feed its 66 million people and has to import a huge portion.
 
Red_Dave said:
In lieu of other agreements yes, which is why other agreements have to be made. And again my whole argument is that we would be able to import stuff that we are UNABLE to import now.
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What is it that we cannot import now, that you wish we could?
 
Red_Dave said:
In lieu of other agreements yes, which is why other agreements have to be made. And again my whole argument is that we would be able to import stuff that we are UNABLE to import now.
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There is nothing you are unable to import now.... Now some things might be more expensive due to tariffs sure, but nothing is "banned".. well US meat, but that is a health issue.
 
gunner said:
What is it that we cannot import now, that you wish we could?
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Well that was poorly phrased, "unable to import with ease" would have been better but if you are a producer in a developing country then these tariffs are a significant obstacle. Again look at why we are importing food from a desert in South Eastern Spain (1) and not deserts in North Africa.

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intensive_farming_in_Almería
 
PeteEU said:
Of course the Spanish and Italian olive oil industry would push against it. Tunisia is their main competition... The EU makes most of the olive oil in the world by far, but Tunisia and Turkey are fighting for the 2nd spot. Why on earth should the Spanish and Italians allow cheaper oil from their main competitors in without a fight? .
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Im sure this guy would agree with your logic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HfRzQBHIP4

Ultimately it boils down to whether I am more concerned over whether producers in the first world can earn money of what is essentially racketeering than i am about whether those in the developing world can work their way out of poverty and whether those least of in the developed world can feed themselves. You can guess where my sympathies lie (that´s right, I´m a monster).

And surely if you are concerned about our food supply it would make sense to diversify our supply as much as possible (It wasn't too long ago that we got most of out wheat from Australia and there is no reason this cant happen again)
 
Where much can be said for your following argument
Red_Dave said:
Well that was poorly phrased, "unable to import with ease" would have been better but if you are a producer in a developing country then these tariffs are a significant obstacle.
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it is actually, when looking at Africa overall for instance, more a matter of food producers in that continent being swamped with (often subsidised) EU crops that render it sown growers uncompetitive even in their respective domestic markets. Wheat being a telling example to the point that S. Africa has imposed import duties to protect its own growers.
Again look at why we are importing food from a desert in South Eastern Spain (1) and not deserts in North Africa.

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intensive_farming_in_Almería
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There's really nothing preventing the post Brexit UK from continuing to import from Almeria, as long as the water table there doesn't become completely saline (which it will sooner rather than later). And until that happens you'll find stuff from the South Eastern European deserts still cheaper than anything N. Africa can possibly match, alone by volume.



Red_Dave said:
Im sure this guy would agree with your logic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HfRzQBHIP4

Ultimately it boils down to whether I am more concerned over whether producers in the first world can earn money of what is essentially racketeering than i am about whether those in the developing world can work their way out of poverty and whether those least of in the developed world can feed themselves. You can guess where my sympathies lie (that´s right, I´m a monster).

And surely if you are concerned about our food supply it would make sense to diversify our supply as much as possible (It wasn't too long ago that we got most of out wheat from Australia and there is no reason this cant happen again)
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You DO realize that Australia has its hands full with having its wheat exports compete on the Asian markets?

Full enough to make any ambitions of entering into competition with EU wheat exports into the post-Brexit UK somewhat silly?

While, at the same time, the UK exported around 78 pct of its total wheat and barley exports to the EU in 2015/2016.

At the same time importing around 11 pct (on average over past decades) of its total domestic demand in wheat and barley, a good 63 pct of those from the EU.

This all sounds a bit like the pipe dreams of bringing the glorious days of Commonwealth (Australian) lamb and (N.Zealand) butter back.

You reckon that with all the markets long since developed, those two are going to fall all over themselves in securing a market as comparatively tiny as the UK?
 
Chagos said:
.There's really nothing preventing the post Brexit UK from continuing to import from Almeria, as long as the water table there doesn't become completely saline (which it will sooner rather than later). And until that happens you'll find stuff from the South Eastern European deserts still cheaper than anything N. Africa can possibly match, alone by volume.
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Indeed and I hope we do, but my point is that if food can be mass produced and imported to England from Almeria, why can the same not be done from North Africa which has similar geographic conditions but is a hell of a lot bigger, dramatically cheaper, relatively empty demographically speaking and isnt much further away from us than Almeria is. The only reason I can see that it hasn't is that Almeria has been able to develop this industry in such a way whereas NA hasn´t is that anyone growing there has the guarantee of tariff free access whereas producers elsewhere don´t, and that by breaking down these obstacles we would be doing both ourselves and the world a favor.

I find it hard to imagine that Eastern Europe could produce these products more cheaply, given the huge difference you see in labour costs and population density but even if this is the case surely it would be in our interest to diversify our food supply as much as possible. Especially given that many in Europe seem intent on making our lives as difficult as possible.

You DO realize that Australia has its hands full with having its wheat exports compete on the Asian markets?
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Hands full in what sense? Is there capacity to produce agricultural products limited somehow? If so its hardly going to be down to a lack of space and geography/climate neednt be an issue (hence my Almeria example)

This all sounds a bit like the pipe dreams of bringing the glorious days of Commonwealth (Australian) lamb and (N.Zealand) butter back.
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Why just the commonwealth?
 
Red_Dave said:
In lieu of other agreements yes, which is why other agreements have to be made. And again my whole argument is that we would be able to import stuff that we are UNABLE to import now.
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Like "what", for instance.
 
Red_Dave said:
Indeed and I hope we do, but my point is that if food can be mass produced and imported to England from Almeria, why can the same not be done from North Africa which has similar geographic conditions but is a hell of a lot bigger, dramatically cheaper, relatively empty demographically speaking and isnt much further away from us than Almeria is. The only reason I can see that it hasn't is that Almeria has been able to develop this industry in such a way whereas NA hasn´t is that anyone growing there has the guarantee of tariff free access whereas producers elsewhere don´t, and that by breaking down these obstacles we would be doing both ourselves and the world a favor.
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wrt to what I've bolded, you are very much mistaken. The reason N. Africa is not churning out agricultural produce to the level that the EU (Almeria FWIW) is, lies in bad infrastructure there, high transport costs, topography and climate making growth of foodstuffs difficult or even impossible and low prices causing investment into the agricultural sector to be seen as being of little merit. Of course it varies by region and country, Morocco for instance having around 40 pct of its working population employed in that sector which supplies around 16 pct of its GDP, yet it is also heavily subsidized by the government.

Algeria, as another example, relies on imports of foodstuffs where Tunisia plays practically no role on the agricultural sector at all.

And, while you're at it, you might want to inform yourself on the amount of exports of agricultural goods from the EU that go outside of the tariff union.
I find it hard to imagine that Eastern Europe could produce these products more cheaply, given the huge difference you see in labour costs and population density but even if this is the case surely it would be in our interest to diversify our food supply as much as possible.
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Oh sure, yet you seem somewhat confused over world markets and what they make possible.
Especially given that many in Europe seem intent on making our lives as difficult as possible.
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Explain how a post Brexit UK would be hindered to import foodstuffs from the EU.
Hands full in what sense? Is there capacity to produce agricultural products limited somehow? If so its hardly going to be down to a lack of space and geography/climate neednt be an issue (hence my Almeria example)
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You are missing the primary issue of geographical distance (freight costs etc.) that would hinder Australian competitiveness on European markets, UK (even post Brexit) included.
Why just the commonwealth?
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Well, it was you that brought up Australian wheat, I didn't.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Manc Skipper said:
Pehaps not so much in Norfolk, where harvests are heavily mechanised, but next door in Lincolnshire they're already ringing alam bells about the lack of seasonal workers to pick the vegetable crops. They're not arriving from Europe due to the uncertainty and perceived hostitlty of the UK. They can't pay locals enough to do the work and the crops are ging to rot in the fields unless something radical is done.

Public opinion in Britain is steadilt swinging away from Brexit. Whether May will listen is something else. Interesting times ahead.

C8BFdfyXgAAnNWa.jpg:large
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We have a neighbor down south has all the crop pickers you could ever want, just ask.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Maybe Denmark too leave the Democracy project's then we put in Iceland as number 27 in EU or 25 countries in total sum in EU.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...return-eu-visit-phones-internet-a8270916.html

Got to love the pro Brexit comments around the web about this... "Yea not gonna happen, as competition will make sure it does not"... well there was competition before the EU stepped in, and it did not happen. On top of that, it aint up to the British telecoms, but those in the EU. There is absolutely zero incentive for the EU telecoms or the British telecoms to maintain the current system after Brexit.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

New British Blue passport to be made in France... the irony.

Best Aprils fool joke this year... that the EU have mandated that all passports from next year have to be... Blue!!! MUHHHHA
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'

The post-Brexit customs system favoured by Boris Johnson and other leading Brexiteers could cost businesses up to £20bn a year, officials have suggested.
The chief executive of HM Revenue and Customs told MPs firms would have to pay £32.50 for each customs declaration under the so-called "max fac" solution. Link.
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Currently, the UK pays £354million a week to the EU - makes around £13billion a year. This new system could cost BUSINESS doing deals with the EU a cool £20 billion a year, on top of the approx £39billion divorce one-off bill.

Just crazy.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Infinite Chaos said:
Currently, the UK pays £354million a week to the EU - makes around £13billion a year. This new system could cost BUSINESS doing deals with the EU a cool £20 billion a year, on top of the approx £39billion divorce one-off bill.

Just crazy.
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It gets worse.. the EU dismissed Mays big proposal about the Northern Ireland border .. it took a day and clearly stated that it was against the agreement they made earlier in the year.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

PeteEU said:
It gets worse.. the EU dismissed Mays big proposal about the Northern Ireland border .. it took a day and clearly stated that it was against the agreement they made earlier in the year.
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It's all a continuing fudge and mess. None of the proposals will work. All that talk that European business would force Germany and France to compromise will come back to haunt the UK economy.

So far, the only Brexiteer to comment on today's figures is John Redwood.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Infinite Chaos said:
It's all a continuing fudge and mess. None of the proposals will work. All that talk that European business would force Germany and France to compromise will come back to haunt the UK economy.

So far, the only Brexiteer to comment on today's figures is John Redwood.
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It will be interesting to see how things play out now that Italy has a Euroskeptic government also, perhaps that will be seen as one more reason to make an example of us.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Red_Dave said:
It will be interesting to see how things play out now that Italy has a Euroskeptic government also, perhaps that will be seen as one more reason to make an example of us.
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If that government lasts 6 months it'll be interesting to see what policies they enact. I also think that govt will also take EU eyes off us in some regards.
 
Brexit is the gift that never stops giving, just not in a good way, a sitcom reverse-flushing toilet busy flooding the dancefloor of the Titanic.

Article on Reuters front page couple of days ago, Britain calls for an end to off-the-record comments and anonymous briefings ... 'a spokesman for Theresa May said'.
 
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