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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
PeteEU said:
Looks like there might have been a massive breakthrough on Northern Ireland... basically, NI remains defacto in the common market.
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May's gonna have fun selling that to the hardliners, especially N. Ireland's DUP.
 
PeteEU said:
Looks like there might have been a massive breakthrough on Northern Ireland... basically, NI remains defacto in the common market.
Click to expand...

Just read that. A member in all but name.......
 
gunner said:
Just read that. A member in all but name.......
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Well, shot down by DUP as expected.

Possibly (can't be ruled out) with the ulterior motive of securing more gravy but May's meeting of today with Juncker has once again left everyone where they always were.

Frankly it's puzzling how any special status could be afforded to N. Ireland without Scotland getting the same. Sturgeon already made plenty of noise to that effect today.
 
Return to the world of 'Ulster says No'.
 
Trenchant analysis of the mess: https://www.theguardian.com/comment...aker-ireland-brexit-talks-irish-border-lesson

It was always stupid to turn the border issue into a face-off between mighty Britain and little Ireland. But that’s how the hard Brexiters and their Tory press allies chose to construe it.

Having done so, they might now ask themselves: if, for the first time in 800 years, Ireland is proving to be in a much stronger political position than Britain, what does that say about what Brexit is doing to Britain’s strength?
 
So, this seems to be the deal the DUP have scuppered: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)

This paragraph:

In five months of negotiation, May has largely given way on EU demands. In one sign of a concession from Brussels, the resolution states that British citizens living in an EU state on Brexit Day, March 29, 2019, would retain their “right ... to reside and move freely in the whole EU”. Previously, the EU had said their residence rights might only be guaranteed in the particular member state in which they were living at the time.

How are they planning to define 'living'? If, say, a group of British people acquired a plot of land - I've driven through one village in north Spain offering a free plot of land to anyone who'll build a house on it - and they were camped out on it on March 29th 2019, why should that not qualify?

Sounds to me like a great business concept. For the Remainers we're offering something more positive than Dignitas, and for the Leavers, think of it as a snowflake-targetting timeshare scam :)
 
Looks like there is a deal.... the UK remains in the EU but with no ability to impact EU policy...
 
PeteEU said:
Looks like there is a deal.... the UK remains in the EU but with no ability to impact EU policy...
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You don't seem to have read the documents
 
joG said:
You don't seem to have read the documents
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The wording coming out basically means that. We shall see, as there are many issues still to negotiate, but as it stands now, the UK says that there will be full alignment if there is no trade deal. You can debate what that means for the British, but for the EU it is clear.. you follow our rules without being a member and having influence on those rules.
 
Sven Karma said:
So, this seems to be the deal the DUP have scuppered: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)

This paragraph:

In five months of negotiation, May has largely given way on EU demands. In one sign of a concession from Brussels, the resolution states that British citizens living in an EU state on Brexit Day, March 29, 2019, would retain their “right ... to reside and move freely in the whole EU”. Previously, the EU had said their residence rights might only be guaranteed in the particular member state in which they were living at the time.

How are they planning to define 'living'? If, say, a group of British people acquired a plot of land - I've driven through one village in north Spain offering a free plot of land to anyone who'll build a house on it - and they were camped out on it on March 29th 2019, why should that not qualify?

Sounds to me like a great business concept. For the Remainers we're offering something more positive than Dignitas, and for the Leavers, think of it as a snowflake-targetting timeshare scam :)
Click to expand...

I don't know that I follow your analysis. True, I have given the documents only an hour and a half read over, but it sounds more like a fudge on bothe sides to me. I will be interested in your comments after browsing the text.

European Commission - PRESS RELEASES - Press release - Brexit: European Commission recommends sufficient progress to the European Council (Article 50)
 
PeteEU said:
The wording coming out basically means that. We shall see, as there are many issues still to negotiate, but as it stands now, the UK says that there will be full alignment if there is no trade deal. You can debate what that means for the British, but for the EU it is clear.. you follow our rules without being a member and having influence on those rules.
Click to expand...

Here. Maybe you read it and show me, what you mean.

European Commission - PRESS RELEASES - Press release - Brexit: European Commission recommends sufficient progress to the European Council (Article 50)
 
joG said:
Here. Maybe you read it and show me, what you mean.

European Commission - PRESS RELEASES - Press release - Brexit: European Commission recommends sufficient progress to the European Council (Article 50)
Click to expand...

You link a press release? LOL.. how about linking the EUs actual communication? If you had read that, you would read the following..

In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom committed to maintaining full
alignment with those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which, now or in the
future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy, and the protection of the
Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement.
Click to expand...

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/1_en_act_communication.pdf

Understand now?
 
PeteEU said:
The wording coming out basically means that. We shall see, as there are many issues still to negotiate, but as it stands now, the UK says that there will be full alignment if there is no trade deal. You can debate what that means for the British, but for the EU it is clear.. you follow our rules without being a member and having influence on those rules.
Click to expand...
Seems to me that what was agreed upon is a master piece of creative ambiguity.

Sounds pretty much as though both sides want to move onto the next negotiation phase (rather than remain in the recent deadlock) and cobbled something up where each side can claim success in moving forward.

The Irish border thing is far from settled altogether, I mean how does one reconcile the idea of there being no hard border down the Irish sea between N.I. and the UK (DUP's most adamant demand) while not having a hard border (and all its consequences) between N.I. and the Republic?

Nothing of the recent stand-offs is off the table.
 
Chagos said:
Seems to me that what was agreed upon is a master piece of creative ambiguity.

Sounds pretty much as though both sides want to move onto the next negotiation phase (rather than remain in the recent deadlock) and cobbled something up where each side can claim success in moving forward.

The Irish border thing is far from settled altogether, I mean how does one reconcile the idea of there being no hard border down the Irish sea between N.I. and the UK (DUP's most adamant demand) while not having a hard border (and all its consequences) between N.I. and the Republic?

Nothing of the recent stand-offs is off the table.
Click to expand...

Well as I see it.. the Brits dont want a hard border and with the wording they have put in, then NI will remain in the custom union and common market, at least de facto wise. Add to that, the fact they emphasized over and over that the UK was united, then that also means the UK remains de facto in the custom union and common market.

If the UK goes against this principle of making sure NI is in regulatory synchronicity with Ireland, then a hard border will come.

This also means that the UK is in a very weak position in any trade deal. They are basically getting the Norway version of the EU... follow almost all rules including migration, but have zero influence. It also means that any trade deal the UK makes with 3rd parties outside the EU, will have to be de facto approved by the EU.. as in they cant be anti-competitive towards the EU and follow EU rules... like Norway and other countries do. Basically what I mean.. the UK cant do a trade deal with anyone that gives them too big, if any advantage over the EU or and EU member state, as that would threaten the regulatory synchronicity part..
 
Chagos said:
Seems to me that what was agreed upon is a master piece of creative ambiguity.

Sounds pretty much as though both sides want to move onto the next negotiation phase (rather than remain in the recent deadlock) and cobbled something up where each side can claim success in moving forward.

The Irish border thing is far from settled altogether, I mean how does one reconcile the idea of there being no hard border down the Irish sea between N.I. and the UK (DUP's most adamant demand) while not having a hard border (and all its consequences) between N.I. and the Republic?

Nothing of the recent stand-offs is off the table.
Click to expand...
Well, they've kinda said that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed in two separate places. One relates to the pasr century of relationship between UK and Ireland, the other relates to many decades of relationship between the UK and the EU.

To back out of the stage one promises would be to betray the Belfast agreement the way the issues have been combined. Not a good look.

At a minimum meeting the stage one promises, means effectively complying to European standards on trade between North and Republic of Ireland. Which would effectively mean the UK has to comply to EU agricultural standards while trying to strike free trade deals with countries like the USA.

I don't see how the brexit promises could ever be met under these circumstances.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
 
PeteEU said:
Well as I see it.. the Brits dont want a hard border and with the wording they have put in, then NI will remain in the custom union and common market, at least de facto wise. Add to that, the fact they emphasized over and over that the UK was united, then that also means the UK remains de facto in the custom union and common market.

If the UK goes against this principle of making sure NI is in regulatory synchronicity with Ireland, then a hard border will come.

This also means that the UK is in a very weak position in any trade deal. They are basically getting the Norway version of the EU... follow almost all rules including migration, but have zero influence. It also means that any trade deal the UK makes with 3rd parties outside the EU, will have to be de facto approved by the EU.. as in they cant be anti-competitive towards the EU and follow EU rules... like Norway and other countries do. Basically what I mean.. the UK cant do a trade deal with anyone that gives them too big, if any advantage over the EU or and EU member state, as that would threaten the regulatory synchronicity part..
Click to expand...
Seems to me that Ben K. covers it adequately (bolded by me for emphasis) with:------>
Ben K. said:
Well, they've kinda said that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed in two separate places. One relates to the pasr century of relationship between UK and Ireland, the other relates to many decades of relationship between the UK and the EU.

To back out of the stage one promises would be to betray the Belfast agreement the way the issues have been combined. Not a good look.

At a minimum meeting the stage one promises, means effectively complying to European standards on trade between North and Republic of Ireland. Which would effectively mean the UK has to comply to EU agricultural standards while trying to strike free trade deals with countries like the USA.

I don't see how the brexit promises could ever be met under these circumstances.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
 
Ben K. said:
Well, they've kinda said that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed in two separate places. One relates to the pasr century of relationship between UK and Ireland, the other relates to many decades of relationship between the UK and the EU.

To back out of the stage one promises would be to betray the Belfast agreement the way the issues have been combined. Not a good look.

At a minimum meeting the stage one promises, means effectively complying to European standards on trade between North and Republic of Ireland. Which would effectively mean the UK has to comply to EU agricultural standards while trying to strike free trade deals with countries like the USA.

I don't see how the brexit promises could ever be met under these circumstances.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
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Indeed not (wrt the bolded).

If the going (EU-UK) so far was considered tough, what comes now is going to be a real dirge.

With what has been so enthusiastically called a break-thru today, scheduled to be re-hashed all over again.

Possibly with May no longer around at some time between now and middle of next year.
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...brexit-transition-to-parliament-idUSKBN1EC005

Then: Brexit means Brexit

Now: Status Quo Brexit


“But we would propose that our access to one another’s markets would continue as now, while we prepare and implement the new processes and new systems that will underpin our future partnership.”

Oh yeah, those magical technological solutions we keep being promised, somehow the dog keeps eating the homework.

Meanwhile, "Michael Gove is to get his own Navy". Well, how can that go wrong?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/893447/brexit-michael-gove-navy-brtish-waters
 
Godric1970 said:
what like between Scotland and England .... when we leave the UK to remain in the EU
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The border between England and Scotland will be a new Hadrian's Wall of empty Buckfast bottles ;-)
 
Interesting tidbit from this past week.

First - Farage suggested there could / should be a second referendum.

Now, he suggests such a second referendum could be lost by Leave.

I remain a Remainer but I think the efforts of leaving have demonstrated that Leave could have been handled so much better if the "gubmint" and senior Tory leavers had been more organised about it. Worst thing about our Brexit "negotiations" is that they have been so embarrassingly incompetent.
 
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