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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Sven Karma said:
David Davis looks a broken man. The crapalanche of Brexit is inexorably gathering weight.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1117/920981-long-read-brexit/

Mainland British history has always marginalised the 'Northern Irish' problem. The Brexiters have their dream of being an island. Hello, you have an actual physical border with the EU.
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This is the first time in the history of the relationship that Ireland (Eire) has the upper hand. Hope they're kinder than we were.
 
Serenity said:
I said all along when people were considering which way to vote that perhaps the greatest uncertainty associated with leaving the EU is that no country has ever done it before, so no one can/could predict the exact resulting consequences of a yes vote. It's new ground.
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The Remainers saw it well enough. It seems it may just have dawned on Corbyn that he needs to get onside with Remain.
 
Manc Skipper said:
This is the first time in the history of the relationship that Ireland (Eire) has the upper hand. Hope they're kinder than we were.
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Dunno about that. The Irish economy is very much linked to the UK economy. We saw that when the Irish banks went belly up.. the first to stand up and help was the UK, despite it having to nationalize large parts of its own banking system.

There is no doubt that the Irish border issue is the key point in the discussions and there are only 2 solutions. A physical border or making Northern Ireland stay as part of the customs union. The problem is the DUP, who is the May governments only backer.. Solve that problem, and you solve the Irish issue fast and this solution will also work for Gibraltar.
 
PeteEU said:
Dunno about that. The Irish economy is very much linked to the UK economy. We saw that when the Irish banks went belly up.. the first to stand up and help was the UK, despite it having to nationalize large parts of its own banking system.

There is no doubt that the Irish border issue is the key point in the discussions and there are only 2 solutions. A physical border or making Northern Ireland stay as part of the customs union. The problem is the DUP, who is the May governments only backer.. Solve that problem, and you solve the Irish issue fast and this solution will also work for Gibraltar.
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Ireland (like all the other EU members) can veto any agreement. That gives them power. Unless the Brexiteers are so barmy that they want to fall out of Europe with no deal.
 
PeteEU said:
Looks like a divorce deal has been made... UK has caved and is going to pay 40+ billion pounds.
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Let's see, if it is indeed done. But, if one thinks it an appropriate turn of tongue, the caving would be more have been performed by the EU in salty mortals of fifty or sixty percent of that demanded. Sure the street needs to have its spin on either side. And it is extremely important to EU propagators that the UK is seen to do badly. Many have been quite candid about that. The EU thinks it needs punishment, so that other embers will stay. Beyond that, don't kid yourself. This is what negotiation means, the very definition of the word.
 
Manc Skipper said:
Ireland (like all the other EU members) can veto any agreement. That gives them power. Unless the Brexiteers are so barmy that they want to fall out of Europe with no deal.
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The Irish will be paid off, if Brussels and London find an agreement.
 
joG said:
The Irish will be paid off, if Brussels and London find an agreement.
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I don't think you have a single clue as to what, it is you think you're talking about.
 
Manc Skipper said:
That's not how it works.
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That's the way it always works. Well, worked till recently. Of late one has been unable to buy off countries and is trying out coercive measures or circumventing unanimity by redefining the policy item as belonging to an area that can be dealt with by majority vote.
 
joG said:
That's the way it always works. Well, worked till recently. Of late one has been unable to buy off countries and is trying out coercive measures or circumventing unanimity by redefining the policy item as belonging to an area that can be dealt with by majority vote.
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Are you actually following the negotiations? The border issue is complex and nothing can be "paid off" in such circumstances.
 
gunner said:
I don't think you have a single clue as to what, it is you think you're talking about.
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I can't help how the pork barrel works..
 
gunner said:
Are you actually following the negotiations? The border issue is complex and nothing can be "paid off" in such circumstances.
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Why not. It might be unpleasant for the Irish. But hey. It's the EU and leaving is an option you will be punished for.
 
Manc Skipper said:
No such thing here. Your comment is founded on elementary ignorance.
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In what way? How do you think decisions have been reached in unanimity that harmed individual countries? Get real. Pork barrel is quite normal not only in Europe.
 
joG said:
In what way? How do you think decisions have been reached in unanimity that harmed individual countries? Get real. Pork barrel is quite normal not only in Europe.
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This is what's next to the pork barrel, the shooting fish in a barrel. It doesn't need any malevolence on the EU's part to notice that the Irish border is the Brexit red herring's very soft target-rich underbelly.
 
Sven Karma said:
This is what's next to the pork barrel, the shooting fish in a barrel. It doesn't need any malevolence on the EU's part to notice that the Irish border is the Brexit red herring's very soft target-rich underbelly.
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I’m not sure I understood your meaning.
 
joG said:
I’m not sure I understood your meaning.
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Well, your argument is that the Irish border problem can be solved by the Eire govt being 'paid off' because of pork barrel politics.

My point is that the Irish border problem is a different kettle of Brexit fish, one that the UK govt has been absurdly blind to, unless non-specified 'technological solutions' is your idea of a good answer.
 
Sven Karma said:
Well, your argument is that the Irish border problem can be solved by the Eire govt being 'paid off' because of pork barrel politics.

My point is that the Irish border problem is a different kettle of Brexit fish, one that the UK govt has been absurdly blind to, unless non-specified 'technological solutions' is your idea of a good answer.
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post #238 got it right with no further specifics necessary.;)

What we actually have here is personal hatred of the EU precluding all desires to educate oneself out of own ignorance wrt specifics one spouts forth over.

Just saying, but you've probably figured all that out by now as well.

Besides which, to return back to more pertinent information values, the UK parliament has already ruled out that unavoidable border controls in the manner that is usual, can even be remotely done by robots.
 
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Sven Karma said:
Well, your argument is that the Irish border problem can be solved by the Eire govt being 'paid off' because of pork barrel politics.

My point is that the Irish border problem is a different kettle of Brexit fish, one that the UK govt has been absurdly blind to, unless non-specified 'technological solutions' is your idea of a good answer.
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I don't know this for certain. But it seems improbable that the uk government has been blind to the problems believed to surround the Irish boarder. They just haven't treated it the way EU popular commentary would like. But it is like the other questions. If the EU didn't want to show the member states and their populations that the uk was worse off in freedom than in the club, the treaty would be very simple and change practically nothing.
 
Chagos said:
post #238 got it right with no further specifics necessary.;)

What we actually have here is personal hatred of the EU precluding all desires to educate oneself out of own ignorance wrt specifics one spouts forth over.

Just saying, but you've probably figured all that out by now as well.

Besides which, to return back to more pertinent information values, the UK parliament has already ruled out that unavoidable border controls in the manner that is usual, can even be remotely done by robots.
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It is really sad that you don't follow it more closely and do not apply lateral analysis. But it is quite widely confirmed that the content of 238 is as it is. It is the same principal as that of the Prodi Doctrine to make it difficult for freedom movements to use the EU to free a population from the now unnecessary layer of government of central national capitols. This has been widely discussed on German public media, and stated in various choices of words by EU and national elite personnel. It's just that you don't like the truth very well.

But, if you have any experience with contracts, you must realize that you can form them to achieve practically anything realistic you want. For that reason there is no reason the EU cannot write the contract to emulate the present state of affaires without the unnecessary political elements of the "ever closer union" of the Preamble to the Lisbon Treaty. Just take Barnier's Dekans that EU court rulings should be binding for disputes. Why, not even the Germany accepts that.

But, from the way you write, you are all opinion and with little hands-on experience or even much knowlege of the various treaties, court rulings or decision making processes. At least, when asked more precise questions you chose to pass. This is typical of street beliefs concerning a populistically sold political project. Folks feel deeply, but don't know much about the things, wehre the get technical. And with regards the EU, that is als good als foolish.
 
I should actually (instead of mistakenly citing 238) have cited post #233.

Which, to save others having to scroll, reads
gunner said:
I don't think you have a single clue as to what, it is you think you're talking about.
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nuff said.
 
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joG said:
I don't know this for certain. But it seems improbable that the uk government has been blind to the problems believed to surround the Irish boarder.
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Well, it might seem 'improbable' that the UK government should hold a referendum and then make no plans as to what to do should the vote be 'leave', but that's exactly what happened. And it might seem 'improbable' that at a time when the N.I./Eire border is a hot topic that Northern Ireland has not had an actual government for the last 6 months and that the UK government has let several deadlines go by and not lifted a finger, but that's exactly what's happening.

joG said:
They just haven't treated it the way EU popular commentary would like. But it is like the other questions. If the EU didn't want to show the member states and their populations that the uk was worse off in freedom than in the club, the treaty would be very simple and change practically nothing.
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The situation doesn't need the EU to 'show' anybody anything: the philosophical, logistical etc contradictions of Brexit enthusiasts are doing that by themselves. Anyone think Puigdemont's mooted 'Catexit' a vote-winner?
 
Sven Karma said:
Well, it might seem 'improbable' that the UK government should hold a referendum and then make no plans as to what to do should the vote be 'leave', but that's exactly what happened. And it might seem 'improbable' that at a time when the N.I./Eire border is a hot topic that Northern Ireland has not had an actual government for the last 6 months and that the UK government has let several deadlines go by and not lifted a finger, but that's exactly what's happening.



The situation doesn't need the EU to 'show' anybody anything: the philosophical, logistical etc contradictions of Brexit enthusiasts are doing that by themselves. Anyone think Puigdemont's mooted 'Catexit' a vote-winner?
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Well yes and no. May appears not to be a good negotiator. This does not mean that one can see the strategy the UK is applying. That is part of the problem about negotiations and only an idiot believes , what meets the eye.
 
Looks like there might have been a massive breakthrough on Northern Ireland... basically, NI remains defacto in the common market.
 
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